Payrolls Soar By 339K, Blowing Away Highest Estimate, Even As People Employed Tumble By 310K Sending Unemployment Rate Higher With consensus...
Could monetary conditions be supportive of the "soft landing" scenario? While the "recession" versus "no recession" debate rages, there is a precedent...
Senate Rubber Stamps Debt Ceiling Band-Aid; Biden To Sign Into Law 'As Soon As Possible' As expected, Chuck Schumer's Senate was a lock for...
Overall, the employment pictures remains healthy. Higher frequency weekly initial claims are trending in the right direction (lower). Aggregate hours worked...
We have been optimistic about the prospects for equities this year despite fears of recession. And even though investors have listed a deeply inverted...
US Manufacturing Surveys Signal "Renewed Deterioration Of Business Conditions" In May, Orders/Prices Plunge With overall macro data serially...
- by New Deal democratI’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads...
- by New Deal democratAs usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago.The ISM manufacturing...
Overview: The market was gearing up for a June Fed hike and officials and this helped lift the greenback. However, the Fed Governor Jefferson, nominated...
The COVID-19 pandemic led to an initial decrease in birth rates in the U.S. followed by a partially offsetting rebound, as we documented in our December...
Regional Surveys from Philly, NY, Texas and Chicago are all at levels previously indicative of a recession. The lone false signal was the Texas General...
Watch Yield Curve For When Stocks Begin To Price Recession Risk Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, US large-cap indices...
The NAIOP Research Foundation, as part of its Industry Trends meeting, recently hosted a panel discussion on what’s next for the office sector. The panelists...
- by New Deal democratIt is always a bad idea simply to project a current trend forward, especially with data series that are noisy and heavily...
Higher Unemployment Won't Stop Wages From Rising Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, The net result of these dynamics is...
In this post we summarize the main results of our contribution to a recent e-book, "The Making of the European Monetary Union: 30 years since the...
Retail Sector Is The "Soft Underbelly" Of The Economy Authored by Bruce Wilds via Advancing Time blog, Prepare for Retail Apocalypse Part...
https://bondvigilantes.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/1-emerging-market-growth-1024x576.pngOne of the key motivations for investing in emerging markets...
I just refreshed my favourite U.S. breakeven inflation chart (above), and I was surprised by how placid pricing has been. This article gives a few observations...
The deal would raise the ceiling for two years, cap some federal spending and impose new work requirements on certain federal benefits. It still needs...
For weekend reading, Gary Alexander, senior writer at Navellier & Associates, offers the following commentary: Come mothers and fathers throughout...
The months-long wrangling over the debt ceiling is finally coming to an end, potentially averting an “economic catastrophe.” What Happened: President Joe...
"Glut Of Inventory" Hits Hamptons As Rental Demand Cools Considering the following: private jet demand in the US is sliding, and summer rental...
US Corporations Are Filing For Bankruptcy At The Fastest Pace Since 2010 One would not know it from looking at the S&P which just hit...
**************************** Personal Invitation ****************** Each year, at this time, I invite a handful of investors to join my exclusive Income...
The Treasury Bond - It's Time Has Likely Come Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, I received many emails and questions...
I received many emails and questions on “why” we are adding the U.S. Treasury bond to our portfolios. The question is understandable, given its dire...
Many people are wondering if the higher interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are slowing inflation. For nine months ... Read more
"Stark Reminder Things Can & Do Fail" - Sen. Rubio Demands No Commercial Real Estate Bailouts Authored by Senator Marco Rubio, via RealClearPolitics.com, In...
Recent years brought new stresses on the construction industry — COVID-19 shutdowns, supply chain woes, labor shortages and bank failures have slowed...