In February 2023, we wrote Janet Yellen Should Focus On HOPE. The article walks through Michael Kantrowitz’s HOPE model. HOPE, or Housing, New Orders...
Democrats should start worrying about the level of debt and the increasing deficit. I previously discussed this issue when President Obama held the White...
A recent warning by YahooFinance warns investors to sell their cash and buy bonds and stocks now as the Fed pauses. To wit: "Get out of...
As a retail real estate specialist for more than three decades, I’ve seen many trends come and go. And now, I’m seeing that niche real estate...
What is the "wealth effect," and why is it important? It is a great question and reminded me of "A Funny Thing Happened on the Way...
- by New Deal democratAs I’ve written many times over the years, one of the best short leading indicators for the jobs market is real consumer...
- by New Deal democratYesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted a recession in Q1 next year, based...
- by New Deal democratAll of the remaining 2023 data - housing sales and construction, and personal income and spending, as well as the Index of...
- by New Deal democratAlthough they aren’t the most leading of housing metrics, because of supply-chain issues during the pandemic, housing units...
Back in July, I wrote about the historically large gap between large and small-cap companies, noting that the extremely narrow rally in the largest technology...
In my final video insight for the year, I wanted to share some potentially exciting news for all you small cap stock enthusiasts out there. I...
In its fight against persistent inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just introduced its 13th rate hike in this cycle at the same the...
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Associate Instructional Professor of Economics at the University...
- by New Deal democratOnce again there is no new economic data, so let me follow up some more on the issue of longer term unemployment.Earlier...
As Recession Noise Grows, Recession Signal Is Fading Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, The clamor for a US recession has...
Financial Assets Are Running Out Of Steam For Now Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, The impressive rally in stocks and...
- by New Deal democratInitial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 217,000 last week. The 4 week average increased 2,000 to 212,750. With a one week delay,...
* Banks report tighter lending standards * IMF raises China GDP forecast for 2023 to +5.4% * 20% of US offices vacant and WeWork bankruptcy won’t...
The following headline from a July 2020 CNBC article is stunning: Here's why economists don't expect trillions of dollars in economic stimulus to create...
From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rises to $17.29 Trillion Led by Mortgage, Credit Card, and Student Loan Balances The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's...
Does this mean we should be expecting the recession, in next month’s or month after’s data? Maybe, maybe not. Figure 1: Civilian employment over age...
The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released new jobs data on Friday. According to the report, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs rose 150,000 jobs in...
The BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for October. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line...
The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. The...
October NFP employment came in at 150K (below consensus 180K), private NFP at 99K (vs 158K consensus). Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators...
Wage growth slows to 0.2% on a monthly basis in October The Federal Reserve could not realistically have hoped for a better jobs report today but...
Quick Take The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has seen another sizeable reduction this past week, shedding approximately $40 billion. This now brings...
The recent #MacroView blog noted economists are increasingly confident the economy will avoid a recession. Such is due to strong job and retail sales data....
This was a slight downward revision. Nothing to cheer and really nothing to write home about. September Durable Goods were revised down .1% MoM in Sept...
The Issue: While inflation affects all people in an economy, its effects can be particularly harmful to poorer households. The standard approach to reducing...