This post presents an updated estimate of inflation persistence, following the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for April 2023....
Could monetary conditions be supportive of the "soft landing" scenario? While the "recession" versus "no recession" debate rages, there is a precedent...
Senate Rubber Stamps Debt Ceiling Band-Aid; Biden To Sign Into Law 'As Soon As Possible' As expected, Chuck Schumer's Senate was a lock for...
Investor Home Purchases Collapse Most On Record Residential real estate brokerage firm Redfin released new data that revealed a record-breaking...
Overall, the employment pictures remains healthy. Higher frequency weekly initial claims are trending in the right direction (lower). Aggregate hours worked...
We have been optimistic about the prospects for equities this year despite fears of recession. And even though investors have listed a deeply inverted...
The Fed Blew Up Another Real Estate Bubble And It's Losing Air Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com, In March, I warned that...
Fed Hawkishness Will Be Kept At Bay By China's Angst Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, China’s faltering recovery will...
Stalling China Recovery Deals A Blow To European Stocks By Michael Msika, Bloomberg markets live reporter and strategist With alarm bells...
US Manufacturing Surveys Signal "Renewed Deterioration Of Business Conditions" In May, Orders/Prices Plunge With overall macro data serially...
- by New Deal democratI’m making an important addition to my weekly blurb on jobless claims this week: I’m showing how it compares with and leads...
- by New Deal democratAs usual, we start the month with reports on last month’s manufacturing, and construction from two months ago.The ISM manufacturing...
Overview: The market was gearing up for a June Fed hike and officials and this helped lift the greenback. However, the Fed Governor Jefferson, nominated...
Everyone should thank their lucky stars we have Chairman Jerome Powell to steer our economy. He’s done an incredible job navigating these turbulent times,...
These Five Niche Commodities Signal China's Recovery Faltering China's economic recovery from draconian zero-Covid controls is faltering....
Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions). From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: April 2023...
The COVID-19 pandemic led to an initial decrease in birth rates in the U.S. followed by a partially offsetting rebound, as we documented in our December...
Regional Surveys from Philly, NY, Texas and Chicago are all at levels previously indicative of a recession. The lone false signal was the Texas General...
Watch Yield Curve For When Stocks Begin To Price Recession Risk Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, US large-cap indices...
US Job Openings Unexpectedly Soar Above Highest Estimate Even As Number Of Quits Tumble For those following the recent sharp drop in job openings,...
The NAIOP Research Foundation, as part of its Industry Trends meeting, recently hosted a panel discussion on what’s next for the office sector. The panelists...
- by New Deal democratIt is always a bad idea simply to project a current trend forward, especially with data series that are noisy and heavily...
Higher Unemployment Won't Stop Wages From Rising Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, The net result of these dynamics is...
In this post we summarize the main results of our contribution to a recent e-book, "The Making of the European Monetary Union: 30 years since the...
Investors Alley Will AI Save the Chip Industry? The pandemic certainly turned the semiconductor industry on its head. Despite record production of semiconductors,...
On Tuesday the FHFA House Price Index hit an all-time high. Total active listings are still near all-time lows and demand has stabilized.
The "International Passenger Weight Survey" runs until June and is entirely voluntary.
