The National Health Service (NHS) in England has long enjoyed high levels of popular support and trust. This was heightened during the COVID-19 pandemic, as people across the nation stood in the streets at the same time every week to clap for the NHS.

The culmination was when a 99-year-old retired army officer, Captain (later Sir) Thomas Moore, began fundraising for the NHS by walking around his garden. He eventually raised an estimated £38 million in public donations.

Yet, since the peak of the pandemic, the difficulties facing the NHS have been laid bare. Waiting times in accident and emergency and referral times for specialist treatment remain staggeringly high.

As researchers on trust, this led us to a question: do high waiting times mean people trust the NHS less? Trust is hugely important to society, as it tells us so much about people’s faith in the integrity of institutions.

We put this to the test. In monthly samples of approximately 500 respondents from July 2022 to July 2023, we looked at trust in major British political and public institutions such as parliament, the police, and the NHS. The NHS had the highest levels of support by far. On a seven-point scale, trust in the NHS was a full two points higher than trust in parliament.

One might say that trust in parliament is low because the public views the institution as having major performance problems. Polls show more than half of those surveyed believe parliament does not reflect the “full range of people and views of the British electorate”, and a majority of respondents also state that the Westminster parliament does either a “fairly bad” or a “very bad” job in holding the government of the day to account.

But the same does not appear to be true for the NHS. Higher waiting times, a strong indicator that the system is not functioning at its best, do not make people in England trust the NHS less, even though they may at some point be required to trust the NHS with their life.

Identifying with the NHS

Public administration specialists find that a person’s familiarity with an organisation such as the NHS, and whether they “identify” with its mission, can be as important as performance in determining whether they trust it.

Virtually every voter has had an experience with the NHS, and our research elsewhere finds deep sympathy with its employees, who are judged to be underpaid. Further polling during the service’s 75th anniversary found “the health service makes more people proud to be British than our history, our culture, our system of democracy or the royal family”.

Conservative politician Nigel Lawson once said “the NHS is the closest thing the English people have now to a religion”. So it’s clear that people do identify with the NHS. Voters also do not seem at all willing to abandon the faith of “free at the point of use” nationalised healthcare. Rather, citizens largely want a government that will fix their trusted institution.

Work by polling company Survation shows that for the NHS, voters do prioritise “reducing waiting times for NHS operations and procedures” and “making it easier to get GP appointments” – but they also don’t seem to think NHS staff are responsible. The same poll showed fewer than 10% of respondents believe that a priority for the NHS should be “reducing waste and creating efficiencies in NHS services”.

There is little sign, therefore, of the public being responsive to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s contentious claims that the NHS waiting times and other woes are at least partially related to industrial action.

It is likely that voters will punish the Conservatives for their poor performance on managing the NHS in the upcoming election. But that doesn’t mean Labour will get a free pass. Voters want the next government to sort things out – but the solutions to NHS problems are increasingly complex.

Thomas J. Scotto is the Co-I on this UKRI/ ESRC (grant number ES/W011913/1) and Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS, grant number JPJSJRP 20211704) funded research.

Steve Pickering is the PI on this UKRI/ ESRC (grant number ES/W011913/1) and Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS, grant number JPJSJRP 20211704) funded research.

Martin Ejnar Hansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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More than 960 million Indians will head to the polls in the world’s biggest election between April 19 and early June. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is seeking a third term in office. And the polls suggest it will achieve this objective.

If one was to go by economic growth figures alone, the Modi government’s performance has been impressive. When Modi came to power in 2014, economic growth was sluggish. A series of high-profile corruption cases led to a loss of investor confidence in the Indian economy.

But between 2014 and 2022, India’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a measure of income per head) rose from US$5,000 (£4,000) to over US$7,000 – an increase of roughly 40% in eight years. These calculations use purchasing power parity, a way of comparing general purchasing power over time and between countries.

This growth occurred in spite of an ill-advised attempt early on in Modi’s first term to take ₹500 (£4.80) and ₹1000 (£9.60) notes out of circulation. Scrapping the notes led to an acute cash shortage, slowing the growth in per capita GDP from 6.98% in 2016 to 5.56% in 2017.

According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s economy is projected to grow at a rate of 6.5% in 2024. That is higher than China’s projected growth of 4.6%, and exceeds that of any other large economy. The UK’s economy, for example, is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2024.

However, recent estimates also suggest that inequality in India is at an all-time high. Growth, when it has occurred, has seemingly been unequal. A key challenge facing the Modi government in its next term will be to convert higher growth into productive jobs while also curbing the excess wealth of India’s economic and political elites.

All smoke and mirrors?

India’s economic performance is hard to assess as the government has not published official data on poverty and employment since 2011. This has led analysts to use alternate data sources that are not as reliable as the large and nationally representative consumption and employment surveys of the Indian government’s statistical agency.

As a consequence, one gets wildly varying estimates of poverty. Less than two months before the elections, the Indian government released a factsheet that suggests poverty in India had fallen to a historic low in 2022.

The results were based on a large consumption survey carried out by the Indian government. But the actual data behind the government’s estimates was not released for independent analysis.

The lack of transparency with data has led to a situation where no one really knows what the true estimates of poverty and inequality are. This is a sorry state for a country known for its pioneering household surveys that in the past were far ahead of their time.

The new welfarism

In its second term, the Modi government placed greater emphasis on delivering public goods and social welfare programmes in a less corrupt manner. This saw the launch of a massive rural road construction programme and the enrolment of roughly 99% of Indian adults in Aadhaar, a digital ID system linked to fingerprints and iris scans.

The Aadhaar rollout, in particular, has allowed national and state governments to distribute benefits to the poor directly through their Aadhaar-linked bank accounts. It has also helped to curb leakage in the delivery of subsidies to poor households, which has long been the bane of India’s welfare delivery.

Essential goods such as toilets and cooking cylinders, which are normally privately provisioned, were supplied in large numbers by the government. This led to what Indian economist and the former Chief Economic Advisor to the government, Arvind Subramanian, called “New Welfarism” in India.

The delivery of welfare programmes occurred most rapidly during the pandemic. For example, the government’s food subsidy bill increased by nearly five times between 2019–2020 and 2021–2022, ensuring people were able to access affordable food grains.

There have been other areas of success too. The proportion of Indian villages with access to electricity climbed from 88% in 2014 to 99.6% in 2020. And 71.1% of people in India now own an account at a financial institution, up from 48.3% in 2014.

These massive transfers of cash, along with the greater provision of goods and services to India’s poor, have led to the BJP enjoying increased popularity among marginalised groups. Historically, these groups have tended to vote for the opposition Congress Party.

The lack of good jobs

The Modi government has grown India’s economy. But it has not been as successful in creating productive jobs for the large proportion of India’s labour force who are unskilled and poor.

Around 40% of workers remain in agriculture, and only about 20% work in manufacturing jobs or business services such as IT. Pre-poll surveys suggest that increasing unemployment and inflation are sources of concern for many voters.

The weak record of the Modi government in creating jobs is surprising given that it has floated many initiatives to kickstart manufacturing. The Make in India programme, which was launched as soon as Modi came to power in 2014, aimed to reduce the costs of doing business in India.

This was followed by the more recent production-linked incentive scheme in November 2023. The scheme offered US$24 billion in industrial incentives to boost domestic production in key manufacturing sectors from electronic products to drones. However, manufacturing’s share of output remained the same in 2022 as it was when Modi first took office.

For India to emulate the labour-intensive industrialisation success of China, deeper structural reforms are needed in the country’s product, labour and credit markets. But this will be politically difficult to do as it involves taking on India’s powerful conglomerates and trade unions.

As the Modi government seeks a third term in office, a key challenge that lies ahead is creating productive jobs outside of agriculture for the country’s increasingly educated and aspirational youth.

Kunal Sen receives funding from ESRC, British Academy and DFID.

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It looks like a peak is forming in artificial intelligence. The most prominent share here is Nvidia (NDAQ:NVDA). With a spectacular rally, the value has surged by more than 100 per cent in just six months. However, the share price is now stuttering, and there have been no new highs for days.

The charts for TUI and Lufthansa also show an upward reversal. The latest wage negotiations have tightened the cost structure considerably. Also, a significant amount of revenue has been lost because of the numerous strikes. And now the Middle East crisis is flaring up, making the entire region a risk for holidaymakers. However, the rise in oil prices is giving oil companies a new lease of life. Here is a list of interesting investments.

Nel ASA – The planned turnaround is a long time coming

The Norwegian pioneer in electrolysers has shrunk to a market capitalization of €730 million in recent weeks. This puts Nel ASA (PINL:NLLSF) at a price-to-sales ratio of 4.4 for 2024. After numerous cancellations of major orders, the operating breakeven point is now expected to be reached in 2027. Although revenue for the first quarter of 2024 increased from NOK 409 million to NOK 532 million, a loss of NOK 74 million remained. Management announced that it will continue to invest in expanding organizational and production capacity while working on larger, more complex projects. This strategy, although it could promote growth in the long term, is a burden on the company’s profitability in the short term.

After a share price fall of over 80% in the past 3 years, the chartist can currently recognize some turnaround attempts. From a technical chart perspective, however, the situation now looks much better than at the beginning of the year. Nel ASA has already recovered 10% from its low, but yesterday’s loss is again weighing on the picture. Those who buy cautiously now should only do so with a long-term horizon in mind. Over a three-year period, however, triple-digit returns beckon.

Saturn Oil & Gas – Higher oil prices provide cash flow

In addition to the political efforts to shape the energy transition through alternative energies, the undersupply in Germany as an industrial location has shown just how important traditional coal, oil, and gas facilities still are today. Without any need, energy prices in Central Europe have risen dramatically because of the misguided subsidy policy. Unfortunately, the sun does not always shine, and the wind can fail to blow. Regardless of the economic outlook one may project, the long-term geopolitical landscape will likely keep energy prices elevated for a while longer.

Canadian oil producer Saturn Oil & Gas (TSX:SOIL) has increased its production capacity in Saskatchewan and Alberta to over 26,500 barrels of oil equivalent by the end of 2023. It expects EBITDA of C$355 million over the course of the year at estimated WTI oil prices of US$80. With more than 800 developed drilling locations, the company is able to generate nearly C$100 million in operating earnings (EBITDA) before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization per quarter. If the expected cash flows are added at a discount rate of 10%, the safest resource indication yields a net cash value of C$6.11 per share, and even C$14.70 if the estimated reserves are included. It is no wonder that analysts rate the share with average price targets of C$5.15 and a “Buy” rating. The aim is to reduce the existing debt of around C$413 million by 2026. With spot prices above U$83 and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, cash flow is likely to be higher than expected. This will generate ongoing surpluses of unimagined proportions and simultaneously release funds that can be used to further develop the properties.

With around 161.5 million shares, the current market capitalization is just under C$450 million. Therefore, Saturn Oil is only valued at around 1.5 times free cash flow for 2024. Information on the first quarter of 2024 will be available at the beginning of May. As earnings outside the hedge book will be higher than expected, the share price will likely continue to rise further. It is important to overcome the chart resistance at around C$2.85; then, follow-up purchases should follow quickly.

Lufthansa and TUI – Travel is becoming more complicated again

While there was hope for a good tourism year at the beginning of the year, things are turning out differently than expected, with numerous strikes and flight cancellations. With the travel backlog from the Coronavirus years now cleared, TUI (OTCPK:TUIFF) and Lufthansa (OTCQX:DLAKF) have also been able to repay government aid. However, the average price increase of 40% has, in turn, led consumers to rethink, and today, not all prices quoted are paid so easily. Household budgets are under considerable pressure due to the general increase in the cost of living, especially from government fees and taxes. An improvement in the short term is hardly to be expected with declining economic growth.**

German households are paying several hundred per cent more than the rest of the world in energy prices, which is self-inflicted. Tighter household budgets are having a particularly negative impact on the consumption of luxury goods and are significantly reducing travel budgets. After the disappointing earnings in the first quarter, analysts are now hoping for a recovery by mid-year. On the Refinitiv Eikon platform, only 6 of 22 analysts still recommend the Lufthansa share as a “Buy,” but the price expectation is still quite high at €8.65. From a technical perspective, a trend reversal in the share is not expected for the time being. Yesterday’s support break at €6.50 is significant and likely to trigger further stop-loss selling. Things look a little better for TUI. The stock is currently trading at a 2025 P/E ratio of 5.6, with slight revenue increases of 5% still being consensus. There are also 7 “Buy” recommendations out of 11 estimates with a 12-month price target of €9.90 – a 50% premium to the traded price. Nevertheless, the price should not fall below the support level of €6. The sector is currently only for the most resilient investors.

(Source: REFINITIV) Conflict of interest

Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a “Transaction”). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the company.

In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.

In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships.

For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest.

The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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The post Nvidia! Turnaround for Nel, Saturn Oil & Gas, Lufthansa, TUI? appeared first on The Market Online Canada.

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