Farm Bankruptcies Drop 7% In 2020
Farm Bankruptcies Drop 7% In 2020
By John Newton and Gwen Battram of Michigan Farm News,
Recent higher commodity prices and ongoing ad hoc financial support to offset natural disasters, retaliatory tariffs and coronavirus-related damages…
By John Newton and Gwen Battram of Michigan Farm News,
Recent higher commodity prices and ongoing ad hoc financial support to offset natural disasters, retaliatory tariffs and coronavirus-related damages have come a little too late for some farmers across the U.S., i.e., 2020 Farm Profitability: A False Positive.
The impact of multiple years of low commodity prices and delayed distribution of disaster assistance relief, followed by a global pandemic is visible in recently released caseload statistics from the U.S. Courts, which indicate that Chapter 12 family farm and family fishery bankruptcies totaled 552 filings during 2020, down 43 filings, or 7%, from 2019, but also the third highest over the last decade.
Over the last few years, many farmers have experienced low commodity prices, high production costs, increasing agricultural land values, increasing cash rents, increasing labor costs, and high capital barriers to entry, among other problems. Off-farm income, which many farmers rely on, has also been a challenge given COVID-19 restrictions and inadequate broadband access. For many highly leveraged farmers, including new and beginning farmers, low commodity prices and high input costs could not be sustained.
According to the Kansas City Federal Reserve, delinquency rates at commercial banks continue to increase, and USDA recently temporarily suspended debt collections, foreclosures and other activities on farm loans to support distressed farmer borrowers. According to USDA, more than 12,000 farmer borrowers will benefit from these recently announced debt suspension plans.
While Chapter 12 bankruptcies have declined compared to year-ago levels, these numbers should not be considered a sign that the farm economy has recovered. Additionally, given the difficulty of working remotely during the pandemic, the decline in bankruptcies, which can only be filed online at this time, may not fully reflect on-farm economic conditions.
For example, there were more than 230,000 fewer bankruptcy filings in 2020 compared to 2019 (774,940 filings in 2019, compared to 544,463 filings in 2020). Moreover, since bankruptcy debtors remain unable to access Paycheck Protection Program loans, some small agricultural businesses may be delaying their bankruptcy filing in the hopes of qualifying for the PPP.
Chapter 12 bankruptcy is often the last option for agricultural producers, as many have likely already taken steps with their lenders to reduce their operating costs, liquidate assets or transition their operation to avoid bankruptcy. Put simply, a single year of favorable farm income is unlikely to reverse a farm’s multi-year journey toward bankruptcy.
USDA’s first Farm Income Forecast for 2021 will be released on Feb. 5. While many expect cash receipts from the sales of crops and livestock to increase, some expenses are likely to increase and ad hoc federal support will certainly be lower. The net effect will likely be lower but above average net farm income in 2021.
Key to turning the farm economy around is a COVID-19 recovery, restored demand for biofuels, increased U.S. agricultural trade and new sources of income, such as those from adopting climate-smart practices and ecosystem services markets.
Bankruptcies by District Court
Data at the District Court level indicates that Chapter 12 bankruptcies were the highest in western Wisconsin at 39 filings, followed by Kansas at 35 filings, Nebraska at 32 filings and eastern Wisconsin at 30 filings. The 10 District Courts with the highest number of filings represented 48% of all Chapter 12 bankruptcies during 2020.
In 17 districts the number of Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies tied with or reached decade-high levels. These areas include but are not limited to eastern Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota, Montana and Vermont. Many of these areas have been hard hit by multiple years of low commodity prices, e.g., corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton, lower yields and low milk and livestock prices.
In 33 of the 94 districts, Chapter 12 bankruptcies increased from prior years. The increase in Chapter 12 filings was the highest in eastern Wisconsin at 15 filings, followed by Vermont at 13 filings. In 44 districts the number of Chapter 12 filings decreased relative to previous years. The decrease was the largest in middle Georgia, which had 10 fewer filings, and western Pennsylvania, which had nine fewer filings.
Over the last decade, there have been nearly 5,000 farm bankruptcies – less than a quarter-percent of all farm operations in the U.S. Based on a survey conducted by the Association of Chapter 12 Trustees, more than half of these filings were likely to complete a Chapter 12 reorganization or negotiate a mutually acceptable outcome, which may result in a dismissal of the case or conversion to Chapter 7 (Farm Bankruptcies Slow, More Aid Needed).
Total filings over the last decade were the highest in western Wisconsin at 255 filings, followed by Puerto Rico (not pictured) at 214 filings, Kansas at 209 filings, eastern California at 203 filings and middle Georgia at 192 filings. The 10 districts with the highest number of filings had 1,850 filings over the last decade, approximately 38% of the national total.
International
United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations
The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."
Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.
Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.
Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'
As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.
United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'
This week, United Airlines (UAL) announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.
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"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.
The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER (BA) plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.
Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.
United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight
In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.
With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.
"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.
stocks pandemic south korea japan hong kong europeanInternational
Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program
The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.
It's just been a few days since Target (TGT) launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan.
The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.
Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers
And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs.
This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.
Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter.
Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier
Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper.
It also undercut Amazon (AMZN) Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video).
Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more.
If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery.
Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.
We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model?
"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."
Walmart (WMT) clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up.
Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.
Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024
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Comments on February Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the …
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in February to 83.5% from 83.3% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in February.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 million from 4.42 million in February. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.203 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.277 million the previous month.
This is close to pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
---|---|---|
Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
1 | 2019 | 100 |
2 | 1990 | 48 |
3 | 2007 | 46 |
4 | 1979 | 45 |
5 | 20241 | 38 |
6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
9 | 1967 | 29 |
10 | 1995 | 25 |
1Currrent Streak |
Summary:
The headline monthly jobs number was above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%. Another solid report.
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