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A Humiliated Goldman Sachs Has Quietly Lost $2.6 Billion Investing In Stocks In The Past Four Quarters

A Humiliated Goldman Sachs Has Quietly Lost $2.6 Billion Investing In Stocks In The Past Four Quarters

While most analysts and traders were…

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A Humiliated Goldman Sachs Has Quietly Lost $2.6 Billion Investing In Stocks In The Past Four Quarters

While most analysts and traders were digging through Goldman's stronger than expected Q2 earnings report which beat on revenue despite a nearly 50% plunge in profits and another quarter of dismal investment banking, but redeemed itself with stellar FICC numbers...

... which sent Goldman stock higher, for the fourth quarter in a row there was troubling disclosure in the bank's Asset Management division (which overlaps with the verbotten Goldman Prop, which does but doesn't really exist since banks still aren't technically allowed to have prop trading post Volcker). Here, after a very disappointing Q3 2021, which saw a $820 million loss from the trade of public equities...

... a similarly disappointing Q4 where investment and trading in public stocks led to another $500 million loss for Goldman...

... and yet another chunky loss in Q1, this time for $620 million...

... In Q2 we have seen a continuation of this bizarre equity investment underperformance, with the bank reporting that net revenues in "Asset Management" cratered to just $1.084 billion, down 79% from $5.132 billion a year ago, a collapse the bank summarized hilariously in the following chart which is the epitome of chart crime (just look at the Y-axis for a few seconds to figure out what Goldman tried to pull here).

According to Goldman's investor presentation, for the fourth quarter in a row, "equity investments net losses reflected significant mark-to-market net losses from investments in public equities."

Goldman further breaks down the equity revenue, and notes that whereas investments in private equity brought in a modest $440 in Q3, down bigly from the massive $2.815 billion profit a year ago, public equities actually led to a $660 million loss in Q2, the fourth consecutive loss in a row!

Add across the past four quarter and you get a staggering $2.6 billion in public equity losses! Surely someone on the Goldman call will ask the bank's resident DJ (and occasional CEO) how the world's most powerful trading floor has been unable to make money trading and investing in equities in the past 4 quarters:

But if they don't ask about how Goldman lost almost three billion dollars investing stocks in the past four quarters, surely someone will ask why the bank keeps dumping stocks, pardon "harvesting" gains, hand over fist. After all, this is also the fifth quarter in a row this has taken place.

Recall, one year ago we reported that "Goldman Has "Aggressively" And Quietly Liquidated A Quarter Of Its Equity Investments" showing that "having started the year with a $20BN equity portfolio which has enjoyed a $5BN increase in market prices, Goldman dumped a whopping $5.5 billion of its equity assets so far (excluding a modest $1.5BN in purchases) or more than a quarter of its entire portfolio as of Dec 31. "

Then, three quarters ago the infamous "Harvesting" slide was back if with some adjustments. First, Goldman no longer used YE20 as the starting point for its asset sales bridge, and instead has picked YE19 as the starting reference. Back then the bank had some $22 billion in equity investments, $2BN more than the $20BN at YE 20. What we also found is that unlike Q2, when the bank showed it has sold a whopping $5.5BN in stocks in the first half of 2021 (excluding a modest $1.5BN in purchases), this time the bank went even bolder and sold a total of $16 Billion (presumably split between equities and debt, although whoever did the chart forgot to add the table). This number was offset by $5 billion in equity additions, for a total Net Dispositions amount of $11 billion, or "harvesting" since the bank's 2020 Investor Day.

Two quarters ago, the "Harvesting Progress" slide again made an appearance and show that the bank sold an additional $2BN gross in Q4 (the dispositions number since YE19 rose from $16BN to $18BN), offset by an incremental $1BN in purchases ($6BN in Q4, up from $5BN in Q3). In other words, all else equal (and as the slides above and below show that's more or less the case), Goldman liquidated, pardon "harvested" an additional gross $2BN in Q4 offset by $1 billion in the bank's equity portfolio, for a total Net Dispositions amount of $12 billion, or "harvesting" since the bank's 2020 Investor Day (up from $11 billion last quarter).

Last quarter too the "Harvesting Progress" slide present, shows that the bank continued to sell even more stock, and in the first quarter, sold an additional $1BN gross (the dispositions number rose from $18BN to $19BN), offset by an incremental $1BN in purchases ($7BN in Q1, up from $6BN in Q4). Said otherwise, Goldman liquidated an additional gross $1BN in Q1, offset by $1BN in additions, for a new and improved "net dispositions" of $12 billion however due to the broader decline in the market, the mark ups since Year End 2019 declined from $9BN to $8BN, and a net notional of $18 billion in equity investments at the end of Q1 2022.

So fast forward to today, when we got another dose of Goldman's "Harvesting Progress", which confirmed that yes, the bank sold even more stock in Q2, with net dispositions rising by another $1 billion gross to $20 billion gross, with the difference that unlike in Q2, this time there were no additions, meaning the net dispositions since 2020 are now $13 billion. And finally, with mark ups (i.e., mark-to-market) dropping by another $1 billion, the total value of equity investments at the end of Q2 dropped to just $16 billion, down from $18 billion at the end of Q1, 2022, $19 billion the quarter before that, $20 billion the quarter before that and so on.

Who is Goldman selling to? Anyone who will buy, really but here we would wager that retail investors - who were on tilt buying in 2021 and who have continued to buy, albeit at a far more muted pace in 2022 - have been the proud recipients of billions in Goldman sales, especially those reading the permabullish notes from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin who still refuses to make a recession his base case. This, in the financial literature is called the "distribution phase" or was until Kostin had no choice but to trim his year-end S&P price target from 5,100 to 4,900, then to 4,700, and finally again to 4,400 (while at least admitting that in a recession stocks will collapse to 3,150).

And so, with the investor call now over, unfortunately there was again no discussion of the bank's asset sales, pardon "harvesting" for the fourth quarter in a row. At least one year ago some analyst had the gall to ask a question about Goldman's efforts to reduce its equity investment portfolio, to which the bank said that it it has "made progress on improving its capital efficiency and is moving 'aggressively' to manage equity positions, especially since the environment is supportive."

What does all of the above mean in English? Simple: in Q2, Goldman continued to "aggressively" dump its equity positions which are in the money in an environment that is "supportive", i.e., in which the dumb money is providing a constant bid into which whales such as Goldman can sell.

The last time Goldman was "aggressively" selling into a "supportive" market? Well, we have to go back all the way to 2007 and 2008 when Goldman was busy creating the very CDOs which its prop desk would then "aggressively" short. We all remember how prophetic that particular move turned out to be.

And yes, no wonder that even Goldman is slowing hiring to replace traders who leave, and is bringing back annual performance reviews by year end to fire the "bottom 10%" a practice the bank suspended during the pandemic out of solidarity for bankers who only make a lowly $300,000 on average.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/18/2022 - 15:25

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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