Perhaps the most idiotic thing to ever come out of the Biden administration - and there has been plenty to choose from - was the repeated lie that (trillions in) stimulus does not cause runaway inflation, but rather lowers it.
And while Biden's handlers were generous enough to bribe supposedly smart people to repeat said lie to give it credibility, like for example the chief economist at JPMorgan who last March said that the $1.9 trillion Biden stimulus "won't spark runaway inflation" (narrator: it did)...
Why JPMorgan's Chief Economist Thinks The $1.9TN Biden Stimulus Won't Spark Runaway Inflation https://t.co/v2MtuE9DUS— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 12, 2021
... and of course Janet Yellen, whom we mocked last March when she said that an "inflation problem was unlikely to result from stimulus"...
Yellen Says Inflation Problem Unlikely to Result From Stimulus— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 8, 2021
... the truth, of course, as Jeff Gundlach noted recently, is that an "intelligent twelve year old" was able to predict that excessive stimulus causes inflation...
Excessive stimulus caused inflation. An intelligent twelve year old was able to predict it. Ms. Yellen, long serving Fed Chair…..yes, Fed Chair,…admitted today she was not. On the inflation bright side, and it is a very bright side, Build Back Biden did not pass.— Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) June 2, 2022
... and yet the 75-year-old Treasury Secretary and former Fed chief could not, as she herself admitted last week when Yellen told CNN "Well, look, I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take" when she was shown previous remarks she'd made last year where she indicated there would only be a "small risk" of inflation, and that it would be "manageable."
.@SecYellen on inflation being transitory: "I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy [...] that I, at the time, didn't fully understand." https://t.co/AlrXn4kT0r pic.twitter.com/9tqxo0iA3B— The Hill (@thehill) June 1, 2022
Only instead of taking one for the team of senile, clueless economists and Putin puppets (because if there is any admin that has done the Kremlin's bidding by sending oil prices to near record highs, it is Biden's) especially after the so-called "president" made it clear he will blame Powell and the Fed ahead of the midterms for his admin's catastrophic MMT policies which have assured an avalanche this November that will hand control of Congress to republicans on a silver platter...
... Yellen has decided to strike back, and as Bloomberg reports citing an advance copy of the Treasury secretary's biography- due out on Sept. 27, just weeks before the midterms - the treasury secretary initially urged Biden administration officials to scale back the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan by a third "worried by the specter of inflation"... the same stimulus plan that she herself said last March would not lead to an inflation problem. But, in retrospect, she appears to have changed her mind.
“Privately, Yellen agreed with Summers that too much government money was flowing into the economy too quickly,” writes Owen Ullmann, the book’s author and a veteran Washington journalist who has covered economics and politics in Washington since 1983, referring to former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, who severely criticized the size of the aid plan.
Of course, since it would be an act of near treason for the Secretary of the Treasury to confirm now (if not then) that she personally was against what has emerged as Biden's most hated policy, prompting questions about how actually gives economic advice to Biden and why does Soros have more influence on US policies than the Treasury, the denials came in fast and furious, with Bloomberg reporting that a Treasury spokesperson disputed the claims.
“The Secretary did not urge a smaller package and, as she has said, believes that without the American Rescue Plan, millions of people would have been economically scarred, and the country’s historically fast recovery would have been far slower,” Treasury spokesperson Lily Adams said in response to the book’s claims. What Lily failed to mention is that without the package, US gas prices wouldn't be on the verge of double digits.
Ullmann’s account sheds new light on a policy debate that preceded the eruption of inflation, which now poses a major political threat to President Joe Biden and his Democratic party’s control of Congress.
Fears of overheating have since been confirmed making a mockery of the idiots known as "team transitory" as price increases this year hit a 40-year high and have destroyed Biden’s standing among voters, who is now even more unpopular than Trump was at this time in his tenure. Meanwhile, sensing doom in November, Democrats have blamed the cost surge on supply-chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic and on energy price surges following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They’ve also pointed the finger at US energy companies, and most recently, the Fed itself. But as it has now become clear to both smart 12 year olds and even economists, outsize demand - fueled in part by Biden’s spending plan - was the driving force behind galloping inflation.
Yellen’s concern about inflation “is why she had sought without success to scale back the $1.9 trillion relief plan by a third early in 2021 before Congress passed the enormous program,” wrote Ullmann, who had “unfiltered access” to Yellen as he researched the book, according to publisher PublicAffairs.
Ullmann wrote, “She worried that so much money in the pockets of consumers and businesses would drive up prices at a time when the pandemic had caused severe shortages of goods that were in unprecedentedly high demand.”
Now if only she had said as much instead of - say - repeating the opposite over and over, just to placate her senile boss and lose every last shred of credibility she may have had. Hilarious, even the biography - her desperate attempt at expiration - is confused how to spin Yellen's revisionary view of events:
It’s unclear from the book how staunchly Yellen lobbied to cut back the size of the third wave of aid or whom she engaged with in the administration. And Ullmann goes on to emphasize that Yellen threw her full weight behind the bill as it moved ahead in its larger size.
The Treasury chief endorsed the package before US lawmakers, telling them that historically low interest costs on federal debt had given the government space for fiscal expansion. She has continued to defend the ARP even as high inflation proved persistent. In an April 28 speech, she said it had helped drive unemployment to 3.6%, practically a 50-year low, and had prevented the pandemic from causing a much higher degree of suffering for Americans.
Still, Yellen “would have preferred something closer to $1.3 trillion, according to colleagues,” Ullmann wrote. “But given the choice between Biden’s full $1.9 trillion package and less than $1 trillion that some in Congress preferred, Yellen believed going big was the better course.”
Yellen also felt that even if the bill pumped too much money into the economy, the subsequent spike in inflation would be “transitory,” a term she used through 2021.
Even more remarkable is that according to the biography, while Yellen pushed back against Biden's stimmies, but not really and endorsed them in public at every opportunity, Yellen was angered by Summers’ attacks on the stimulus plan, "even though she shared some of his worries." Yes, you read that right: Yellen disagreed with Biden, but she was more angry when someone else criticized his plan! This kind of cognitive dissonance of the highest order has to be a Democrat thing.
“Yellen was irritated that he would cause his own party so much grief by arming Republicans and some Democrats -- such as Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a conservative by Democratic standards -- with a justification for opposing subsequent spending proposals on Biden’s agenda,” Ullmann wrote.
Manchin cited rising inflation, along with long-term debt concerns, when he later opposed Biden’s 10-year $3.5 trillion economic development proposal known as Build Back Better.
Of course, it's too little too late now, and with even the liberal media turning on Biden, Yellen's last-ditch attempt to preserve some of her reputation in the twilight of her career, and life, will be a miserable failure just like Biden's entire administration as even Jeff Bezos of Democracy Dies In Doublespeak fame, now attests...
their best to add another $3.5 TRILLION to federal spending. They failed, but if they had succeeded, inflation would be even higher than it is today, and inflation today is at a 40 year high.— Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) May 16, 2022
Yom Kippur is coming soon – what does Judaism actually say about forgiveness?
Many religions value forgiveness, but the details of their teachings differ. A psychologist of religion explains how Christian and Jewish attitudes co…
The Jewish High Holidays are fast approaching: Rosh Hashana and Yom Kippur. While the first really commemorates the creation of the world, Jews view both holidays as a chance to reflect on our shortcomings, make amends and seek forgiveness, both from other people and from the Almighty.
Jews pray and fast on Yom Kippur to demonstrate their remorse and to focus on reconciliation. According to Jewish tradition, it is at the end of this solemn period that God seals his decision about each person’s fate for the coming year. Congregations recite a prayer called the “Unetanah Tokef,” which recalls God’s power to decide “who shall live and who shall die, who shall reach the ends of his days and who shall not” – an ancient text that Leonard Cohen popularized with his song “Who by Fire.”
Forgiveness and related concepts, such as compassion, are central virtues in many religions. What’s more, research has shown that it is psychologically beneficial.
But each religious tradition has its own particular views about forgiveness, as well, including Judaism. As a psychologist of religion, I have done research on these similarities and differences when it comes to forgiveness.
Person to person
Several specific attitudes about forgiveness are reflected in the liturgy of the Jewish High Holidays, so those who go to services are likely to be aware of them – even if they skip out for a snack.
In Jewish theology, only the victim has the right to forgive an offense against another person, and an offender should repent toward the victim before forgiveness can take place. Someone who has hurt another person must sincerely apologize three times. If the victim still withholds forgiveness, the offender is considered forgiven, and the victim now shares the blame.
The 10-day period known as the “Days of Awe” – Rosh Hashana, Yom Kippur and the days between – is a popular time for forgiveness. Observant Jews reach out to friends and family they have wronged over the past year so that they can enter Yom Kippur services with a clean conscience and hope they have done all they can to mitigate God’s judgment.
The teaching that only a victim can forgive someone implies that God cannot forgive offenses between people until the relevant people have forgiven each other. It also means that some offenses, such as the Holocaust, can never be forgiven, because those martyred are dead and unable to forgive.
To forgive or not to forgive?
In psychological research, I have found that most Jewish and Christian participants endorse the views of forgiveness espoused by their religions.
As in Judaism, most Christian teachings encourage people to ask and give forgiveness for harms done to one another. But they tend to teach that more sins should be forgiven – and can be, by God, because Jesus’ death atoned vicariously for people’s sins.
Even in Christianity, not all offenses are forgivable. The New Testament describes blaspheming against the Holy Spirit as an unforgivable sin. And Catholicism teaches that there is a category called “mortal sins,” which cut off sinners from God’s grace unless they repent.
One of my research papers, consisting of three studies, shows that a majority of Jewish participants believe that some offenses are too severe to forgive; that it doesn’t make sense to ask someone other than the victim about forgiveness; and that forgiveness is not offered unconditionally, but after the offender has tried to make things right.
Take this specific example: In one of my research studies I asked Jewish and Christian participants if they thought a Jew should forgive a dying Nazi soldier who requested forgiveness for killing Jews. This scenario is described in “The Sunflower” by Simon Wiesenthal, a writer and Holocaust survivor famous for his efforts to prosecute German war criminals.
Jewish participants often didn’t think the question made sense: How could someone else – someone living – forgive the murder of another person? The Christian participants, on the other hand, who were all Protestants, usually said to forgive. They agreed more often with statements like “Mr. Wiesenthal should have forgiven the SS soldier” and “Mr. Wiesenthal would have done the virtuous thing if he forgave the soldier.”
It’s not just about the Holocaust. We also asked about a more everyday scenario – imagining that a student plagiarized a paper that participants’ friends had written, and then asked the participants for forgiveness – and saw similar results.
Jewish people have a wide variety of opinions on these topics, though, as they do in all things. “Two Jews, three opinions!” as the old saying goes. In other studies with my co-researchers, we showed that Holocaust survivors, as well as Jewish American college students born well after the Holocaust, vary widely in how tolerant they are of German people and products. Some are perfectly fine with traveling to Germany and having German friends, and others are unwilling to even listen to Beethoven.
In these studies, the key variable that seems to distinguish Jewish people who are OK with Germans and Germany from those who are not is to what extent they associate all Germans with Nazism. Among the Holocaust survivors, for example, survivors who had been born in Germany – and would have known German people before the war – were more tolerant than those whose first, perhaps only, exposure to Germans had been in the camps.
Forgiveness is good for you – or is it?
American society – where about 7 in 10 people identify as Christian – generally views forgiveness as a positive virtue. What’s more, research has found there are emotional and physical benefits to letting go of grudges.
But does this mean forgiveness is always the answer? To me, it’s an open question.
For example, future research could explore whether forgiveness is always psychologically beneficial, or only when it aligns with the would-be forgiver’s religious views.
If you are observing Yom Kippur, remember that – as with every topic – Judaism has a wide and, well, forgiving view of what is acceptable when it comes to forgiveness.
Adam B. Cohen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.white house pandemic covid-19 germany
EasyJet share price has collapsed by 53% in 2022. Is it a buy?
The EasyJet (LON: EZJ) share price has hit turbulence as concerns about demand and soaring costs remain. It dropped to a low of 293p, which was the lowest…
The EasyJet (LON: EZJ) share price has hit turbulence as concerns about demand and soaring costs remain. It dropped to a low of 293p, which was the lowest level since November 2011. It has plummeted by more than 82% from its all-time high, giving it a market cap of more than 2.5 billion pounds.
Is EasyJet a good buy?
EasyJet is a leading regional airline that operates mostly in Europe. It has hundreds of aircraft and thousands of employees. In 2021, the firm’s revenue jumped to more than 1.49 billion pounds, which was a strong recovery from what it made in the previous year.
EasyJet’s business is doing well as demand for flights rises. In the most recent results, the firm said that forward bookings for Q3 were 76% sold and 36% sold for Q4. For some destinations, bookings have been much higher than before the pandemic.
EasyJet’s business made more than 1.75 billion in revenue in the first half of the year. This happened as passenger revenue rose to 1.15 billion while ancillary revenue jumped to 603 million pounds. The firm managed to make a loss before tax of more than 114 million pounds. It attributed that loss to higher costs and forex conversions.
As I wrote on this article on IAG, EasyJet share price has collapsed as investors worry about the soaring cost of doing business. Besides, jet fuel and wages have jumped sharply in the past few months. Also, analysts and investors are concerned about flight cancellations in its key markets.
Still, there is are two key catalysts for EasyJet. For one, as the stock collapses, it could become a viable acquisition target. In 2021, the management rejected a relatively attractive bid from Wizz Air. Another bid could happen if the stock continues tumbling.
Further, the company could do well as the aviation industry stabilizes in the coming months. A key challenge is that confidence in Europe and the UK.
EasyJet share price forecast
The daily chart shows that the EasyJet stock price has been in a strong bearish trend in the past few months. During this time, the stock has tumbled below all moving averages. It has also formed what looks like a falling wedge pattern, which is usually a bullish sign.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the oversold level while the Awesome Oscillator has moved below the neutral point.
Therefore, in the near term, the stock will likely continue falling as sellers target the support at 270p. In the long-term, however, the shares will likely rebound as the falling wedge reaches its confluence level.
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August data shows UK automotive sector heading for a “cliff-edge” in 2023
With an all-out macroeconomic storm brewing in the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) has been forced to intervene in the tumultuous gilt markets, particularly…
With an all-out macroeconomic storm brewing in the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) has been forced to intervene in the tumultuous gilt markets, particularly towards the tail end of the yield curve (details of which were reported on Invezz here).
Car manufacturing is a key industry in the UK. Recently, it registered a turnover of roughly £67 billion, provided direct employment to 182,000 people, and a total of nearly 800,000 jobs across the entire automotive supply chain, while contributing to 10% of exports.
Just after midnight GMT, data on fresh car production for the month of August was released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders Limited (SMMT).
Strong annual growth but monthly decline
Car production in the UK surged 34% year-over-year settling at just under 50,000 units. This marked the fourth consecutive month of positive growth on an annual basis.
However, twelve months ago, production was heavily dampened by a plethora of supply chain bottlenecks, work stoppages on account of the pandemic, and a worldwide shortage of microchips. The August 2021 output of 37,246 units was the lowest recorded August volume since way back in 1956.
Although the improvement in output is a good sign, equally it is on the back of a heavily depressed performance.
To place the latest data in its proper context, production is still 45.9% below August 2019 levels of 92,158 units, showing just how far adrift the industry is from the pre-pandemic period.
Since July, production in the sector fell 14%.
The fact that the UK is facing a deep economic malaise becomes even more evident when we look at full-year numbers for 2020 and 2021.
In 2020, total output came in at 920,928 units, while 2021 was even lower at 859,575. The last time that the UK automotive sector produced less than one million cars in a calendar year was 1986.
Unfortunately, 2022 has seen only 511,106 units produced thus far, a 13.3% decline compared to January to August 2021.
In contrast, the 5-year pre-pandemic average for January to August output from 2014 – 2019 stands well above this mark at 1,030,527 units.
With car manufacturers tending to pass price rises on to consumers, demand was dampened by surging costs of semiconductors, logistics and raw materials.
The SMMT noted,
The sector is now on course to produce fewer than a million cars for the third consecutive year.
Ian Henry, managing director of AutoAnalysis concurred with the SMMT’s analysis,
It is expected that by the end of this year car production will reach 825,000, compared to 850,000 a year ago, but that’s 35% down on 2019 and a whopping 50% on the high figure of 2017.
Other than the obvious fact that the UK’s economic atmosphere is in hot water, the automotive industry (including component manufacturers) has been struggling to stave off the high energy costs of doing business.
In a survey, 69% of respondents flagged energy costs as a key concern. Estimates suggest that the sector’s collective energy expenditure has gone up by 33% in the last 12 months reaching over £300 million, forcing several operations to become unviable.
Although the government enacted measures to cap the price of energy and ease obstacles to additional production, Mike Hawes, the CEO of SMMT, said,
This is a short-term fix, however, and to avoid a cliff-edge in six months’ time, it must be backed by a full package of measures that will sustain the sector.
Due to the meteoric rise in costs across the automotive supply chain, 13% of respondents were cutting shifts, 9% chose to downsize their workforce and 41% postponed further investments.
Uncertainties around Brexit and the EU trade deal are yet to be resolved.
Moreover, the energy crisis is poised to get even more acute unless Russia withdraws from the conflict, or international leaders ease restrictions on Moscow. Last week, I discussed the evolving energy crisis here.
With global central banks expected to tighten till at least the end of the year, demand is likely to be squeezed further pressurizing British car manufacturers.
Electric vehicles made up 71% of car exports from the UK in August, but robust growth in the sector looks challenging in the near term, in the absence of widespread charging infrastructure, high electricity prices and globally low consumer confidence.
Although energy subsidies could provide some relief in the immediate future, the industry will remain in dire straits while investments stay low and the shortage in human capital persists, particularly amid the push for EVs.
Given the prevailing macroeconomic environment, and severe market backlash to Truss’s mini-budget (which I discussed in an earlier article), the sector is unlikely to turn the corner any time soon.
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