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The Finfluencers You Should Be Following in 2023

These financial influencers are making money know-how both fun and accessible.

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These financial influencers are making money know-how both fun and accessible.

Back in the day, if you wanted to hear the thoughts of the most successful traders on Wall Street or the best budgeters ever to balance a checkbook, your only resource was the local bookstore. There, you could find self-help books about how to budget, save, and invest. 

But not all accounts are created equal. Your typical “how to invest for dummies” may not account for a lot of differences in how you experience the world. And if typical financial gurus don't quite fit your style, you might find exactly what you're looking for in a new type of personality: the finfluencer.

What is a finfluencer?

In the finance world, social media personalities that share tips and opinions about investing, budgeting, and the economy are known as "finfluencers". These folks are followed by millions on social networks, meaning they're a major source of financial advice consumed by millennials and Gen Z.

A finfluencer's journey to financial independence is the focal point of their platform. Some have been able to retire early thanks to their savings and investment methods. For many of the big finfluencers, book sales, speaking engagements, and e-learning materials can also contribute to their income, while others participate in sponsored partnerships (and some do all of the above!).

The financial influencers we've chosen have a wide variety of backstories. Some were raised financially literate and felt moved to share their knowledge. Others had to self-educate, and after resolving their own debts, were determined to form communities and teach others how to do the same. Either way, these personalities are the face of a modern generation that's both social-media and finance savvy.

The Finfluencers You Should Be Following

Tiffany “The Budgetnista” Aliche

INSTAGRAM: @thebudgetnista | TWITTER: @thebudgetnista | YOUTUBE: The Budgetnista Blog

Tiffany Aliche wasn't always a New York Times best-selling author. Back in the early 2000s, Aliche was using her master's degree in education to work as a daycare teacher. But when the 2008 recession put her out of a job and a credit card scam left her with a hefty chunk of debt, she was forced to move back in with her parents. There, Aliche remembered her upbringing in a home where money was talked about openly.

So Aliche began working her way out of debt and used her skills to teach others how to do the same. Thanks to the success of her 2021 book "Get Good With Money", Aliche has been able to share her financial journey with millions across various platforms. 

Follow the Budgetnista for: shame-free recovery tips for pulling yourself out of debt, improving your credit score, and building financial confidence.

Where should I start? Check out Aliche's YouTube channel for various conversations involving money, or add her to your Twitter feed for her tips and thoughts. You can also see Aliche in the Netflix documentary 'Get Smart With Money'.


Tori Dunlap/HerFirst100K

TIKTOK: @herfirst100k | INSTAGRAM: @herfirst100k | TWITTER: @herfirst100k

Tori Dunlap/TS

After the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Tori Dunlap realized that having money meant having choices. In the post-election political climate, emergency funds for things like reproductive services or relocating to a state that maintains marriage equality became a concern for a lot of Americans.

The realization inspired her to launch HerFirst100K, a blog detailing her goal to save $100K before her 25th birthday. Spoiler alert: she did it. Three weeks later, she quit her job to pursue what she calls her life's work. "We make content for girls, gays, and theys," she joked in an interview with TheStreet last October. She categorizes HerFirst100k as a feminist company that uses money as a medium to improve people's quality of life.

Follow Tori Dunlap for: financial outlooks geared toward toppling the patriarchy and handy tips for how to save money.

Where should I start? Dunlop has a lot of content and regularly releases new shorts on the HerFirst100K TikTok and Instagram. Her Financial Feminist Podcast hosts chats with some of the industry's biggest financial influencers -- several of which are also on this list. You can also check out her new book "Financial Feminist".

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Ross Mac

INSTAGRAM: @Imrossmac | TIKTOK: @maconomics | YOUTUBE: @RossMac

As far as job descriptions go, “finance educator and rapper” would set the tone for an unforgettable business card. And that’s just what South-Side Chicago-born Ross Mac does through his platform Maconomics. His time on Wall Street inspired him to bring financial literacy to folks who previously haven’t been included in investment conversations.

Mac hosts a few platforms where people can find his tips. He also runs the Maconomics club, a private investment group focused on building generational wealth. The club includes a lot of his teaching materials plus a weekly call where he chats about investing and answers member questions.

Follow Ross Mac for: easy-to-understand tips on generational wealth and a bright financial future. To get the best of Mac's thoughts and musical talent, we recommend the Money Music Culture podcast.

Where should I start? Mac makes most of his appearances in articles and interviews on some of your favorite finance talk shows. The best way to stay up-to-date with his appearances is through his Twitter account. You can also catch him on Netflix’s “Get Smart With Money”. You can also catch Mac talking finance with the video team here at TheStreet.

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Delyanne “The Money Coach” Barros

Delyanne Barros used to be an employment attorney. But after years of convincing herself that she was just “bad at money”, she was barely able to manage her debt, savings, and investments. Caught up in a dream job she realized wasn’t a good fit, she set herself on a journey to achieve financial independence.

At 37 years old, she quit her law career in order to share her investment tips with anyone else who had reason to focus on investing and early retirement. Now 40 and on track to retire at the age of 45, and she wants to share her methods and experiences with the world as Delyanne the Money Coach.

INSTAGRAM: @delyannethemoneycoach | TIKTOK: @delyannethemoneycoach | TWITTER: @DelyanneMoney

Follow The Money Coach for: no-nonsense tips to understand your finances that don't shy away from addressing systemic inequality -- and how it affects your budget.

Where to start? Delyanne is very active on TikTok and Instagram and her content makes a great addition to your morning scroll. She also hosts a CNN podcast about finances called Diversifying.

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John Liang

TikToker John Liang is truly an influencer for GenZ. His content is perfectly bite-sized for an audience consuming information in 60 seconds or less. And wow, does Liang have a lot of information to share! Whether you'd like someone to explain the "quiet quitting" phenomenon from a modern lens or you want to get a new credit card with the best benefits for you, Liang's content will keep you informed.

In case you're afraid Liang's content is too modern for you, don't tune out yet it. If you can remember the days when coupon cutting was the best way to find savings, Liang shares a ton of tips for limited-time offers and stackable promotions at some of your favorite food and shopping locations -- which is modern coupon-cutting if we've ever seen it.

TIKTOK: @johnsfinancetips | INSTAGRAM: @johnsfinancetips

Follow John Liang for: credit card reviews, funny skits about modern-day job topics, and hacks for maximum savings in your daily shopping.

Where should I start? John has more than 2.2 million followers on TikTok, where his shorts can be binge-scrolled or added to your daily feed. Not on the clock app? Subscribe to Liang's YouTube channel or check out his Instagram reels.

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Kiersten & Julien Saunders of rich & REGULAR

This Atlanta-based couple is all about dissecting the fear surrounding money conversations. They have plenty of experience doing just that, and a successful stint in real estate investing inspired them to start helping their friends become financially independent, too. In 2017, the couple started rich & REGULAR as a blog.

Since then, the couple has built a community of followers unafraid to dig into some delicate money subjects like prenuptial agreements, burnout, spousal death, and more.

INSTAGRAM: @richandregular | YOUTUBE: rich & REGULAR

Follow rich & REGULAR for: deep, thought-provoking discussions on the way money affects our lives and content for couples who want to improve financial communication.

Where should I start? These chats are great food for thought while you're commuting or getting ready for work, so we recommend the couple's podcast. If you're a visual person, the rich & REGULAR YouTube features some great conversations. You can also read the couple's book "Cashing Out".


Lexa of "The Avocado Toast Budget"

TIKTOK: @theavocadotoastbudget | INSTAGRAM: @theavocadotoastbudget | YOUTUBE: Lexa: The Avocado Toast Budget

In 2017, a millionaire went viral for telling millennials that if they wanted to afford to buy a house, they should stop spending money on avocado toast. The hot take was dubbed tone-deaf, but it also pointed to the prevalent idea that financial stability requires the sacrifice of anything that brings you joy.

In 2020, Lexa began documenting her journey to pay off $20,000 worth of debt on TikTok. Her tips and thoughts were built on the idea that managing your money shouldn't make you miserable -- and it has resonated with more than 489,000 viewers. Now she's a full-time content creator sharing tips for the modern era. Her platform's name? The Avocado Toast Budget.

Follow The Avocado Toast Budget for: shame-free finance tips for millennials and GenZers, particularly those with ADHD. Or if you just love a good roast of Dave Ramsey.

Where should I start? Without a doubt, the easiest way to get your daily serving of Avocado Toast is through TikTok. If your finance journey is just beginning, Lexa's YouTube videos are also informative and entertaining.

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Humphrey Yang

This former financial advisor for Merrill Lynch began his career on TikTok as a one-month experiment in 2019. In early 2020, Humphrey Yang posted a cost and revenue breakdown of the pricey Hydro Flask that went viral. As his following grew, he just kept creating content every day -- until he hit one million followers. 

Now, the e-commerce expert likes to geek out about a wide variety of finance topics. Yang covers cost breakdowns of everything from a carton of eggs to personal jets. Followers can look to Yang for credit card reviews, shopping hacks, travel tips and even on-the-street interviews.

TIKTOK: @humphreytalks | YOUTUBE: Humphrey Yang | INSTAGRAM: @humphreytalks | TWITTER: @humphreytalks

Follow Humphrey Yang for: cool trivia about anything involving finance, tips for tax credits, cost and business breakdowns, outlooks on major companies, credit card reviews, and so much more. Yang's content is great for beginners and seasoned investors alike.

Where should I start? If you're a habitual TikTok scroller, you can join Yang's 3.3 million followers. Yang also creates longer, more thorough content on his YouTube channel.

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Farnoosh Torabi

INSTAGRAM: @farnooshtorabi | TWITTER: @farnoosh

Thanks to her education and the high cost of living in New York City, master's graduate Farnoosh Torabi was already heavily in debt in her early 20s. But she was able to address the problem, and based on her experiences, she’s now focused on giving young adults access to financial literacy. Her 2008 book “You’re So Money--Live Rich Even When You’re Not“ launched Farnoosh to financial fame. She's since been featured in mainstream news, reality TV, and web shows -- including Vox’s recent Netflix series “Money: Explained”.

Torabi likes to focus on the emotional factors tied up with money struggles. Personal finance grows and evolves with people, and Torabi’s tenure in the space means that she has an outlook on all kinds of complicated and personal financial struggles.

Follow Farnoosh Torabi for: a regular perspective on current happenings in the financial world or for tips to prepare your budget for significant life changes.

Where should I start? Torabi hosts the "So Money Podcast" where she chats with heavy hitters in the financial industry, plus stars like Queen Latifah, Tim Gunn, Margaret Cho, and more.


John & David, "The Debt Free Guys"

Husbands David and John want to help gay men achieve financial independence. The couple wanted to “live fabulously,” but quickly realized they had been spending beyond their means -- which landed them in more than $50 thousand in credit card debt.

Together the couple used their combined financial service experience to lift themselves out of debt, becoming The Debt-Free Guys. And now, they tell their story and help other queer people get out of debt and enjoy all of the benefits of not having to worry about money.

TWITTER: @DebtFreeGuys | PODCAST: Queer Money Podcast

Follow The Debt Free Guys for: discussions on queer-centered financial issues like healthcare funds and important after-death planning. Plus, the Guys interview LGBTQ business owners and finance experts.

Where should I start? For everyday insights into LGBTQ finance, the Guys are pretty active on Twitter. But for the deep dives, stream the Queer Money Podcast or check out the recording sessions on YouTube.


Vivian Tu of Your Rich BFF

Growing up the child of immigrants, Tu learned to work hard and budget her money at a very young age. After college, she started her Wall Street career working as a Trader for JP Morgan. While in New York, Tu went on dates with your typical “finance bros” and realized that many of her peers were saddled with credit card debt, despite working in the finance industry.

After leaving Wall Street, Tu worked for BuzzFeed and noticed that her coworkers were asking her a lot of personal finance questions. When the covid-19 pandemic sent everyone home, Tu felt compelled to start making financial literacy content on TikTok, which was flooded with bad-faith financial tips meant to capitalize on pandemic financial insecurity.

Over the last two years, Tu’s success on TikTok has allowed her to create content full-time. She now gives quick, helpful money information to more than three million “besties” as "Your Rich BFF".

TIKTOK: @yourrichbff | INSTAGRAM: @your.richbff | YOUTUBE: @yourrichbff

Follow Your Rich BFF for: hot tips for saving money on daily shopping and dining, breakdowns of current financial events, tips for how to budget and save, and more.

Where should I start? For quick tips on your daily feed, check out Tu's TikTok account. She also provides longer content on her YouTube channel. 

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Leon "The Wall Street Trapper" Howard

This born-and-raised New Orleanian’s story before becoming an investor was quite a ways off the typical influencer narrative. As a young man, Howard got into trouble running the streets and spent 10 years in lockup -- which is where he taught himself everything he could about the stock market and how to invest.

After his release, Howard had a new mission: to build himself up into financial independence and provide the same education he gave himself to his community. Now known as The Wall Street Trapper, Howard’s courses, content, and online community has reached more than 700,000 viewers, all focused on investing in Black generational wealth and community education.

INSTAGRAM: @wall_street_trapper | YOUTUBE: Wallstreet Trapper | TWITTER: @Wallstreet504 | TIKTOK: @wallstreetrapper

Follow The Wall Street Trapper for: conversational real talk about finances and investing with an emphasis on building and sustaining wealth in Black communities.

Where should I start? You can add the Trapper's content to your feed on just about every platform. Howard's TwitterInstagramTikTok, and YouTube all stay freshly updated. Howard has also made appearances on other platforms from The Earn Your Leisure Network all the way to The Ellen Show.


Peter "The Einstein of Wall Street" Tuchman

One look at stock trader Peter Tuchman and you already can guess why he’s known as The Einstein of Wall Street. Is it because he’s a genius? Well, yes. But something about his wild hair and unbound enthusiasm says, “I just discovered the theory of relativity and I need to tell you all about it.”

Tuchman was born in New York City’s Upper West Side to an immigrant couple of Holocaust survivors. His father was a doctor and introduced him to a patient who ran a brokerage firm. Tuchman started his tenure at the New York Stock Exchange as a teletypist, and now he can be seen on the floor trading hundreds of millions of dollars in stock each day.

INSTAGRAM: @einsteinofwalls | TIKTOK: @einsteinofwallst | TWITTER: @einsteinowallst

Follow The Einstein of Wall Street for: big-time fun uncle energy that can help you better understand your finances and the workings of the New York Stock Exchange.

Where should I start? Tuchman has been a financial influencer before social media came onto the scene thanks to his appearance and local tourism. But for the best of the Einstein's tips, we recommend his TikTok.

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Haley Sacks of Mrs. Dow Jones

If you’re a regular user of social media, chances are you speak pop culture very fluently. For those who enjoy their financial outlooks filtered through the hottest meme of the moment, Mrs. Dow Jones is the finfluencer of your dreams. Haley Sacks wanted financial literacy she could relate to, so she created it! With her business Finance is Cool, Sachs uses memes and clips from the cultural zeitgeist to make financial literacy more relatable to Zillennial scrollers.

Whether it's the brilliant business moves of Beyoncé or tips for how to handle a recent job layoff, Sacks wants to do more than make finance accessible -- she wants to make it fashionable. And her audience of more than 520,000 followers proves that knowing your way around money is very in style.

INSTAGRAM: @mrsdowjones | TIKTOK: @mrsdowjones | TWITTER: @mrsdowjones | YOUTUBE: Mrs Dow Jones

Follow Mrs. Dow Jones for: financial outlooks on the business moves of the day, a sassy and entertaining analysis of trending pop-culture moments, and financial education for beginners (or fans of "Sex & the City" and "Keeping Up With the Kardashians").

Where should I start? Sachs makes content across multiple platforms, and each has its own style. For casual followers, Twitter and Instagram will make sure that a dollop of contemporary money tips appears on your feed. But for the deeper dives, spend some time with Mrs. Dow Jones on TikTok and YouTube.

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Ecomm Jess

Dr. Jessica "Jess" Spangler is a clinical pharmacist -- not the first profession you think of when it comes to investing. But after nearly a decade in school, she realized that she and her colleagues missed out on essential financial literacy lessons while racking up six figures or more in student loan debt.

Spangler took her experiences teaching medical professionals how to manage their finances and turned them into a teaching opportunity. Through her platform, Ecomm Jess provides straightforward breakdowns of investing concepts that anyone in any field of work can understand.

TIKTOK: @ecommjess | INSTAGRAM: @ecommjess

Follow Ecomm Jess for: beginner's tips for basic investing, everyday money hacks to help you save, and insider tips on affordable healthcare developments.

Where should I start? For great starter-investor content, check out Jess' YouTube videos. For a daily dose of quick-fin tips, Jess updates her TikTok account fairly regularly.


Natalie Garces of Invest with Nat

Natalie Garces is TikTok’s GenZ finance and partnerships guru. Whether she’s working with the newest innovative company helping consumers save money and build credit or she’s helping you throw an elegant wedding for an affordable price tag, don’t let Garces’ youthfulness fool you -- her feed shows that she has plenty of experience in investing and budgeting. 

Her nearly 50 thousand followers on TikTok can attest to her ability to teach finance tips to even the greenest of newbies, all through her platform "Invest With Nat".

TIKTOK: @investwithnat | INSTAGRAM: @investwithnat

Follow Invest With Nat for: beginners' tips for investing and saving. Garces' library is great for teaching kids the basics, but entertaining for adults learning about money for the first time. She's also currently planning a wedding and taking her followers on her journey to throw an elegant bash without a hefty price tag.

Where should I start? Nat's claim to fame is her TikTok channel, but those who prefer Instagram can find her content there as well.

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Talaat & Tai McNeely of "His & Her Money"

YOUTUBE: His And Her Money | INSTAGRAM: @hisandhermoney

Have you ever been in a relationship with someone whose financial outlook is completely different than yours? That's the story of high school sweethearts Talaat and Tai. Just a year before their wedding, the couple had a "come-to-Jesus" moment when they realized they'd soon have to start managing money as a team.

Together, the couple paid off debt brought into the marriage and a $330,000 mortgage in five years. The couple was overjoyed and wanted to share everything they'd learned about finance with others through their business His & Her Money. The two are now associate pastors at a local church, and their faith plays a role in the conversations on their podcast and YouTube channel.

Follow His & Her Money for: great dialogue for couples, particularly those who are Christian. Faith-based looks at well-being in connection with money and communication, with emphasis on establishing Black generational wealth.

Where should I start? If you're into a casual stroll, the His & Her Money Instagram account has stories and thoughts the couple find inspiring. But if you're looking for tips and techniques to apply to your budget, their YouTube channel hosts plenty of content to chew on.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives…

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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives floating around corporate media platforms has been the argument that the American people “just don’t seem to understand how good the economy really is right now.” If only they would look at the stats, they would realize that we are in the middle of a financial renaissance, right? It must be that people have been brainwashed by negative press from conservative sources…

I have to laugh at this notion because it’s a very common one throughout history – it’s an assertion made by almost every single political regime right before a major collapse. These people always say the same things, and when you study economics as long as I have you can’t help but throw up your hands and marvel at their dedication to the propaganda.

One example that comes to mind immediately is the delusional optimism of the “roaring” 1920s and the lead up to the Great Depression. At the time around 60% of the U.S. population was living in poverty conditions (according to the metrics of the decade) earning less than $2000 a year. However, in the years after WWI ravaged Europe, America’s economic power was considered unrivaled.

The 1920s was an era of mass production and rampant consumerism but it was all fueled by easy access to debt, a condition which had not really existed before in America. It was this illusion of prosperity created by the unchecked application of credit that eventually led to the massive stock market bubble and the crash of 1929. This implosion, along with the Federal Reserve’s policy of raising interest rates into economic weakness, created a black hole in the U.S. financial system for over a decade.

There are two primary tools that various failing regimes will often use to distort the true conditions of the economy: Debt and inflation. In the case of America today, we are experiencing BOTH problems simultaneously and this has made certain economic indicators appear healthy when they are, in fact, highly unstable. The average American knows this is the case because they see the effects everyday. They see the damage to their wallets, to their buying power, in the jobs market and in their quality of life. This is why public faith in the economy has been stuck in the dregs since 2021.

The establishment can flash out-of-context stats in people’s faces, but they can’t force the populace to see a recovery that simply does not exist. Let’s go through a short list of the most faulty indicators and the real reasons why the fiscal picture is not a rosy as the media would like us to believe…

The “miracle” labor market recovery

In the case of the U.S. labor market, we have a clear example of distortion through inflation. The $8 trillion+ dropped on the economy in the first 18 months of the pandemic response sent the system over the edge into stagflation land. Helicopter money has a habit of doing two things very well: Blowing up a bubble in stock markets and blowing up a bubble in retail. Hence, the massive rush by Americans to go out and buy, followed by the sudden labor shortage and the race to hire (mostly for low wage part-time jobs).

The problem with this “miracle” is that inflation leads to price explosions, which we have already experienced. The average American is spending around 30% more for goods, services and housing compared to what they were spending in 2020. This is what happens when you have too much money chasing too few goods and limited production.

The jobs market looks great on paper, but the majority of jobs generated in the past few years are jobs that returned after the covid lockdowns ended. The rest are jobs created through monetary stimulus and the artificial retail rush. Part time low wage service sector jobs are not going to keep the country rolling for very long in a stagflation environment. The question is, what happens now that the stimulus punch bowl has been removed?

Just as we witnessed in the 1920s, Americans have turned to debt to make up for higher prices and stagnant wages by maxing out their credit cards. With the central bank keeping interest rates high, the credit safety net will soon falter. This condition also goes for businesses; the same businesses that will jump headlong into mass layoffs when they realize the party is over. It happened during the Great Depression and it will happen again today.

Cracks in the foundation

We saw cracks in the narrative of the financial structure in 2023 with the banking crisis, and without the Federal Reserve backstop policy many more small and medium banks would have dropped dead. The weakness of U.S. banks is offset by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, which lures in foreign investors hoping to protect their wealth using dollar denominated assets.

But something is amiss. Gold and bitcoin have rocketed higher along with economically sensitive assets and the dollar. This is the opposite of what’s supposed to happen. Gold and BTC are supposed to be hedges against a weak dollar and a weak economy, right? If global faith in the dollar and in the U.S. economy is so high, why are investors diving into protective assets like gold?

Again, as noted above, inflation distorts everything.

Tens of trillions of extra dollars printed by the Fed are floating around and it’s no surprise that much of that cash is flooding into the economy which simply pushes higher right along with prices on the shelf. But, gold and bitcoin are telling us a more honest story about what’s really happening.

Right now, the U.S. government is adding around $600 billion per month to the national debt as the Fed holds rates higher to fight inflation. This debt is going to crush America’s financial standing for global investors who will eventually ask HOW the U.S. is going to handle that growing millstone? As I predicted years ago, the Fed has created a perfect Catch-22 scenario in which the U.S. must either return to rampant inflation, or, face a debt crisis. In either case, U.S. dollar-denominated assets will lose their appeal and their prices will plummet.

“Healthy” GDP is a complete farce

GDP is the most common out-of-context stat used by governments to convince the citizenry that all is well. It is yet another stat that is entirely manipulated by inflation. It is also manipulated by the way in which modern governments define “economic activity.”

GDP is primarily driven by spending. Meaning, the higher inflation goes, the higher prices go, and the higher GDP climbs (to a point). Eventually prices go too high, credit cards tap out and spending ceases. But, for a short time inflation makes GDP (as well as retail sales) look good.

Another factor that creates a bubble is the fact that government spending is actually included in the calculation of GDP. That’s right, every dollar of your tax money that the government wastes helps the establishment by propping up GDP numbers. This is why government spending increases will never stop – It’s too valuable for them to spend as a way to make the economy appear healthier than it is.

The REAL economy is eclipsing the fake economy

The bottom line is that Americans used to be able to ignore the warning signs because their bank accounts were not being directly affected. This is over. Now, every person in the country is dealing with a massive decline in buying power and higher prices across the board on everything – from food and fuel to housing and financial assets alike. Even the wealthy are seeing a compression to their profit and many are struggling to keep their businesses in the black.

The unfortunate truth is that the elections of 2024 will probably be the turning point at which the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Even if the public votes for change, the system is already broken and cannot be repaired without a complete overhaul.

We have consistently avoided taking our medicine and our disease has gotten worse and worse.

People have lost faith in the economy because they have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s. Even the stagflation crisis of the 1970s will likely pale in comparison to what is about to happen. On the bright side, at least a large number of Americans are aware of the threat, as opposed to the 1920s when the vast majority of people were utterly conned by the government, the banks and the media into thinking all was well. Knowing is the first step to preparing.

The second step is securing your own financial future – that’s where physical precious metals can play a role. Diversifying your savings with inflation-resistant, uninflatable assets whose intrinsic value doesn’t rely on a counterparty’s promise to pay adds resilience to your savings. That’s the main reason physical gold and silver have been the safe haven store-of-value assets of choice for centuries (among both the elite and the everyday citizen).

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 17:00

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