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Takeover rumours: BioNTech, Cardiol Therapeutics and Novo Nordisk in focus

Biotech has lagged behind the performance of artificial intelligence and high-tech this year, but economic conditions might signal changes.
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The biotech sector has significantly lagged behind the performance of artificial intelligence and high-tech this year. This is because of high inflation, which in turn has made an imminent interest rate cut unlikely. Nevertheless, Germany’s economic conditions are deteriorating dramatically, particularly because of the ongoing geopolitical conflicts. It should, therefore, come as no surprise if the ECB announces an “emergency interest rate cut” in the summer. That would then be the starting signal for a major reshuffle out of the best performers of recent months and into the long-neglected biotech segment. We have selected a few interesting stocks. BioNTech and Formycon – now on sale

BioNTech’s shares (NDAQ:BNTX) have yet to gain momentum in 2024. The share price has fallen by 23% since January, and all hopes are pinned on the cancer-fighting pipeline that has been conjured up in various places. Business with COVID-19 vaccines is slowly running towards zero, meaning that the Mainz-based company will likely be in the red again this year. It is still completely unclear whether the emerging lawsuits in connection with the controversial vaccinations will come to the table at some point.

Behind the scenes, however, the company is returning to its roots and is increasingly focusing on cancer drugs. The vision is to develop new types of mRNA vaccines against cancer that can be adapted to patients as required and may even provide a cure without surgical intervention. At EUR 82.90, the share price is not far off its low for the year of EUR 78.54, giving shareholders little reason to rejoice.

The opinions of experts are also becoming increasingly skeptical, as only 8 out of 16 analysts on the Refinitiv Eikon platform are still positive and recommend the share as a “Buy”, with an average price expectation of EUR 106, which still represents a potential upside of 27%.

Munich-based biosimilar specialist Formycon will hold a conference call tomorrow, April 25, to present its figures for 2023. Revenues rose from EUR 42.5 million to EUR 77.7 million in 2023. Despite a previously formulated negative EBITDA forecast, the company reported a return to profitability with EUR 1.5 million. This was due to the pause in the development of FYB207 in 2023, resulting in unspent research funds.

The EBITDA outlook for 2024 again indicates an intensification of investments in the biosimilar pipeline. Formycon aims to achieve sales of EUR 55 to 65 million, but research expenses will again have a strong negative impact on earnings of EUR -15 to -25 million.

The share price fell back to EUR 39 Tuesday and is thus only marginally above the mid-April low of EUR 37.65. The analyst consensus on the Refinitiv Eikon platform still sees a price target of EUR 101.75. This is surprisingly far from the current share price and will likely decrease with upcoming updates.

Cardiol Therapeutics – Plus 100% is just the beginning

We are moving from the rather consolidating stocks to a top shooter in the biotech sector. The Canadian company Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. (TSX:CRDL) has developed a promising drug candidate called CardiolRx™ in recent years. With its pharmaceutically manufactured, oral solution formulation, the company is again making headlines because CardiolRx blocks the activation of the inflammasome signaling pathway.

After investing heavily in the product pipeline, CEO David Elsley summarizes 2023 and the aspirations for 2024 as follows: “Cardiol Therapeutics made significant progress in 2023 and early 2024 as we pursued our primary goal of providing new therapeutic options for patients with poorly treated heart disease.”

To support the ongoing clinical programs, Cardiol recently attended several scientific conferences where promising preclinical results were presented. In addition, the experts gained deep insights into the molecular and cellular mechanisms of action and benefits of the drug candidates. In February 2024, CardiolRx received Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of pericarditis. With this tailwind, the company is well positioned to achieve significant milestones in 2024 and further advance their goal helping people affected by underserved debilitating heart diseases.

Significant milestones in the MAvERIC, ARCHER, and CRD-38 programs are to be achieved in the current year, which should give the company’s valuation further momentum. The Cardiol share price has risen by almost 175% in the last 12 months without consolidating significantly. With sufficient cash, there is no need to refinance at this level. This means that there is no further dilution and shareholders can continue to benefit from the success of the programs. Cardiol is likely only at the beginning of a long-term revaluation.

Novo Nordisk – What the analysts say

Novo Nordisk (OTCPK:NONOF) continues to grow and expand its product portfolio. The company is known worldwide for its innovations in the field of diabetes and obesity with leading products such as Wegovy and Ozempic. Now, the German Federal Cartel Office has approved the acquisition of Cardior Pharmaceuticals, leading the Danish pharmaceutical giant into a new era of cardiology research.

With this strategic decision, Novo Nordisk underlines its recently emphasized ambition to expand its therapeutic offering beyond its core areas and further strengthens its position as an innovation leader in the healthcare sector. The Danish company also sees the opportunity to expand its portfolio with key therapeutic approaches in the field of cardiology.

The share has taken a pause in its upward trajectory in recent weeks. At a price of DKK 884 or EUR 118.9, the market capitalization now stands at EUR 518 billion. This makes Novo Nordisk one of the largest listed stocks in Europe.

The analyst consensus on Refinitiv Eikon, with 17 recommendations out of 28 assessments, reflects high confidence in its future growth. The 12-month price targets have recently reached a consensus of DKK 945, which is around 6% higher than yesterday’s price.

Typically, experts may adjust their forecasts after new financial results, which are due to be released in a few days on May 2. It will be exciting to see whether the share price will then continue unabated or whether profit-taking will dominate the picture.

(Source: Refinitiv Eikon) Conflict of interest

Pursuant to §85 of the German Securities Trading Act (WpHG), we point out that Apaton Finance GmbH as well as partners, authors or employees of Apaton Finance GmbH (hereinafter referred to as “Relevant Persons”) currently hold or hold shares or other financial instruments of the aforementioned companies and speculate on their price developments. In this respect, they intend to sell or acquire shares or other financial instruments of the companies (hereinafter each referred to as a “Transaction”). Transactions may thereby influence the respective price of the shares or other financial instruments of the company. In this respect, there is a concrete conflict of interest in the reporting on the companies.

In addition, Apaton Finance GmbH is active in the context of the preparation and publication of the reporting in paid contractual relationships. For this reason, there is also a concrete conflict of interest. The above information on existing conflicts of interest applies to all types and forms of publication used by Apaton Finance GmbH for publications on companies.

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The post Takeover rumours: BioNTech, Cardiol Therapeutics and Novo Nordisk in focus appeared first on The Market Online Canada.

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CureVac to cut costs, starts GSK-partnered bird flu vaccine trial

CureVac, once a player in the Covid-19 vaccine race, announced that it plans to reduce costs across the company.
It said Wednesday that 150 employees have…

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CureVac, once a player in the Covid-19 vaccine race, announced that it plans to reduce costs across the company.

It said Wednesday that 150 employees have agreed to voluntarily leave the company. The news was first reported last month by German news outlet SWR. CureVac currently has more than 1,100 employees, according to the annual report.

CureVac said its reorganization will lead to savings starting in the second half of the year, and its cash runway is now set to extend into the fourth quarter of 2025. Its stock $CVAC was down about 8% on Wednesday morning.

In its fourth-quarter earnings update, the company also announced that its and GSK’s joint pandemic preparedness agreement with the German government would be terminated at the end of May. Germany had contracted the companies to supply mRNA-based vaccines in the event of a public health emergency. CureVac noted that plans to complete its vaccine manufacturing facility remain unaffected, and the site is expected to be certified in the second half of the year.

Thaminda Ramanayake

On June 1, CureVac will also be getting a new chief business officer. Thaminda Ramanayake was previously CBO at Affini-T Therapeutics.

CureVac also announced the start of a Phase 1/2 study of an H5N1 avian flu vaccine candidate as part of its collaboration with GSK to develop mRNA vaccines. There are escalating concerns about a bird flu pandemic in humans since the disease spread to dairy cows in the US. The FDA on Tuesday reported evidence of the virus in commercial pasteurized milk, but maintained that the pasteurization process is likely to inactivate the virus. The regulator said the commercial milk supply is still safe.

The avian flu vaccine study will test up to five dose levels compared to a placebo control in two groups of adults: those aged 18 to 64 years old, and adults aged 65 to 85.

CureVac’s partnership with GSK began in July 2020, and they were major players in the Covid-19 vaccine race until their vaccine failed a pivotal study and efforts flamed out. They are currently developing a seasonal mRNA flu vaccine, though the partners recently reported mixed data from a Phase 2 trial.

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CureVac to cut costs, starts GSK-partnered bird flu vaccine trial

CureVac, once a player in the Covid-19 vaccine race, announced that it plans to reduce costs across the company.
It said Wednesday that 150 employees have…

Published

on

CureVac, once a player in the Covid-19 vaccine race, announced that it plans to reduce costs across the company.

It said Wednesday that 150 employees have agreed to voluntarily leave the company. The news was first reported last month by German news outlet SWR. CureVac currently has more than 1,100 employees, according to the annual report.

CureVac said its reorganization will lead to savings starting in the second half of the year, and its cash runway is now set to extend into the fourth quarter of 2025. Its stock $CVAC was down about 8% on Wednesday morning.

In its fourth-quarter earnings update, the company also announced that its and GSK’s joint pandemic preparedness agreement with the German government would be terminated at the end of May. Germany had contracted the companies to supply mRNA-based vaccines in the event of a public health emergency. CureVac noted that plans to complete its vaccine manufacturing facility remain unaffected, and the site is expected to be certified in the second half of the year.

Thaminda Ramanayake

On June 1, CureVac will also be getting a new chief business officer. Thaminda Ramanayake was previously CBO at Affini-T Therapeutics.

CureVac also announced the start of a Phase 1/2 study of an H5N1 avian flu vaccine candidate as part of its collaboration with GSK to develop mRNA vaccines. There are escalating concerns about a bird flu pandemic in humans since the disease spread to dairy cows in the US. The FDA on Tuesday reported evidence of the virus in commercial pasteurized milk, but maintained that the pasteurization process is likely to inactivate the virus. The regulator said the commercial milk supply is still safe.

The avian flu vaccine study will test up to five dose levels compared to a placebo control in two groups of adults: those aged 18 to 64 years old, and adults aged 65 to 85.

CureVac’s partnership with GSK began in July 2020, and they were major players in the Covid-19 vaccine race until their vaccine failed a pivotal study and efforts flamed out. They are currently developing a seasonal mRNA flu vaccine, though the partners recently reported mixed data from a Phase 2 trial.

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Study finds X’s (formerly Twitter’s) community notes provide accurate, credible answers to vaccine misinformation

As the proliferation of misinformation continues to pose a significant challenge on social media platforms, a beacon of hope emerges in research from the…

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As the proliferation of misinformation continues to pose a significant challenge on social media platforms, a beacon of hope emerges in research from the University of California San Diego.

Credit: Screenshot by Qualcomm Institute, UC San Diego

As the proliferation of misinformation continues to pose a significant challenge on social media platforms, a beacon of hope emerges in research from the University of California San Diego.

A new study published in JAMA led by John W. Ayers, Ph.D., from the Qualcomm Institute within UC San Diego, finds that X’s Community Notes, a crowdsourced approach to addressing misinformation, helped counter false health information in popular posts about COVID-19 vaccines with accurate, credible responses.

“Since the World Health Organization declared an ‘infodemic’ of misinformation, there have been surprisingly few achievements to celebrate,” said Ayers, who is vice chief of innovation in the Division of Infectious Disease and Global Public Health at UC San Diego School of Medicine and Deputy Director of Informatics at the Altman Clinical and Translational Research Institute in addition to Qualcomm Institute scientist. “X’s Community Notes have emerged as an innovative solution, pushing back with accurate and credible health information.” 

Understanding Social Media Misinformation Countermeasures

Before the inception of Community Notes, social media companies employed various tactics to tackle misinformation, including censoring, shadowbanning (muting a user or their content on a platform without informing them), and adding generic warning labels to problematic content. “However, social media companies have been unwilling to disclose details of the inner workings of their efforts against misinformation or to share the necessary data to study their utility,” said Mathew Allen, study co-author and UC San Diego medical student. 

In late 2022, X introduced Community Notes—a paradigm shift in the fight against misinformation. This novel approach empowers volunteer, independent, anonymous, and ideologically diverse contributors to identify posts containing misinformation and to rectify misinformation by appending informative “notes” to suspect posts. The process is controlled by the public, instead of decision-makers at the company.

“Because Community Notes is a uniquely open-sourced misinformation countermeasure, it can be studied and improved using the scientific method,” added Allen. 

Evaluating X’s Community Notes

The research team obtained all notes that mentioned terms related to vaccines or COVID along with their corresponding posts made during the first year of the Community Notes program, from December 12, 2022, through December 12, 2023. Of 45,783 notes, 657 address COVID-19 vaccination, with the monthly rate of notes increasing from 22 to 186 during the study. 

A team of evaluators working with an infectious disease physician and virologist evaluated the subject, accuracy, and source credibility of randomly sampled notes. Of the notes examined, 51% addressed adverse events attributed to COVID-19 vaccination; 37%, conspiracy theories; 7%, vaccine recommendations; and 5% vaccine effectiveness. In terms of accuracy, 97.5% of notes were entirely accurate; 2%, partially accurate, meaning they addressed scientifically debated conclusions; and 0.5%, inaccurate. In terms of sources, 49% of notes cited highly credible sources (such as primary data sources, like peer-reviewed studies); 44%, moderately credible sources (such as major news outlets or fact checkers); and 7%, low credibility sources (such as blogs or tabloids).

“Notes typically addressed obvious misinformation, offering corrections from credible sources,” said Nimit Desai, a study co-author and UC San Diego medical student. “It’s remarkable to witness the online community’s adeptness in steering conversations towards accurate and high-quality evidence when provided with the right tools.”

The sample of notes studied was attached to posts that averaged 1,064,981 views, extrapolating to between 500 million and 1 billion views for all COVID-19 vaccination-related posts noted. 

“Our study shifts the focus from talking about misinformation to taking action, offering practical insights into social media strategies that protect public health,” explained Mark Dredze, Ph.D., the John C Malone Professor of Computer Science at Johns Hopkins University and study co-author. “Although we couldn’t examine how these notes directly influenced people’s beliefs or actions, the characteristics we analyzed have consistently been shown to predict a message’s effectiveness.”

Learning from and Enhancing X’s Community Notes

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Robert Califf recently argued vaccination is approaching a dangerous tipping point because of social media misinformation. “One viable avenue for the public health community to combat this threat is to actively engage in social media-based interventions, such as Community Notes,” said physician-scientist and study co-author Davey Smith, M.D., chief of the Division of Infectious Disease and Global Public Health and professor in the UC San Diego School of Medicine, co-director of the Altman Clinical and Translational Research Institute at UC San Diego, and immunologist at UC San Diego Health. “While only a fraction of vaccine misinformation posts are currently addressed, the ample room for expansion suggests significant opportunities to amplify the impact of Community Notes.”

Eric Leas, Ph.D., co-author of the study, assistant professor at the UC San Diego Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science and Qualcomm Institute affiliate, highlighted the transformative role of Community Notes in combating misinformation. “Rather than censoring misleading content, Community Notes fosters a learning environment where users can glean insights from corrections to misinformation to prevent similar misunderstandings in the future. By providing context and credible sources alongside contentious posts, the platform empowers users to discern fact from fiction, a skill they will find useful as they navigate all claims.”

Ayers concluded, “Other social media platforms should embrace transparency by open-sourcing their misinformation countermeasures. This step is crucial for enabling independent scientific scrutiny, which will enhance public trust in and amplify adoption of the most impactful strategies.”

In addition to Ayers, Allen, Desai, Leas, Dredze, and Smith, authors of the JAMA paper, “Characteristics of X’s (Twitter) Community Notes Addressing COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation” (JAMA doi:10.1001/jama.2024.4800), include Aiden Namazi, a student research intern at UC San Diego’s Qualcomm Institute.


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