Tesla shares moved higher Tuesday, potentially snapping an eight-day losing streak, as investors brace for a crucial first-quarter earnings update from the electric vehicle producer after the close of trading.

Shares in Tesla  (TSLA)  are still suffering their second-largest drawdown since the company went public in 2010 and have shed nearly $350 billion in market value this year and the group is now under tremendous pressure to regain investors' confidence and define its near-term growth prospects as EV demand has been fading and its profit margins have been narrowing.

Analysts estimate Tesla will post a bottom line of around 53 cents a share, down from 85 cents a share over the same period last year. Group revenues are pegged at $22.15 billion, down 5%, which would mark its first year-on-year decline since the 2020 pandemic.

Below is a quick compendium of what are likely to be the key takeaways from tonight's earnings report and the highly anticipated conference call with CEO Elon Musk, slated for around 5:30 pm Eastern Time.

1. Profit margins: cars and related software

First and foremost, investors are going to scour Tesla's March-quarter earnings report for details of the amount of profit it managed to extract from each electric car, and each autonomous driving software package, it sells.

Tesla's profit margins, probably the most closely tracked metric by analysts on Wall Street, narrowed to 17.6% over the three months ended in December, down from a 23.8% margin over the year-earlier period.

Gross profit margins, based on Refinitiv forecasts, are likely to narrow further, to around 17.2% over the three months ended in March, with estimates ranging between 14.7% and 20%. 

"Tesla will likely miss amid softening sales and margins (big delivery miss), and the company risks no growth in volume in 2024 with further pressure on margins," said Nancy Tengler, CEO at Laffer Tengler Investments in Scottsdale, Ariz. "But Musk has shown his ability and willingness to make hard decisions and do what’s necessary to dig himself out of a hole. No matter the cost."

2. Delivery forecasts: pressure from China figures

Tesla handed over 387,000 new cars to customers in the first quarter, a 20% decline from the record 484,000 it notched over the final months of 2023 and the biggest miss to estimates since Wall Street began compiling data in the mid-2010s.

Weaker-than-expected sales figures from China, where last month's volumes fell to the lowest levels in more than a year, are also adding to pressure on the market's aggressive full-year delivery targets for Tesla.

Related: Tesla stock slumps after startling China decision

Tesla told investors in February that full-year delivery volumes would be "notably lower" than the 1.8 million tally from 2023, but it declined to provide a firm target. 

Wall Street analysts have pared their own forecasts, but they'll be on high alert for any changes to either the group's 2024 estimate or a hard target from Musk following its challenging opening quarter.

3. Low-cost Model 2 plans: Whether and when 

Investors and analysts have been waiting for a detailed update on Tesla's plans to produce a low-cost EV that can both challenge the group's China-based rivals and cement its position as the world's leading carmaker in the space.

However, earlier this month, Reuters reported that the Model 2 project had been canceled in favor of a focus on robotaxi production, which will leverage the group's push into AI-enhanced autonomous-driving software.

Related: Analysts take aim at Tesla stock after Elon Musk makes unpopular decision

Musk called the report "lies" but didn't address its specifics. That left analysts to wonder whether he was planning to pivot away from his "master plan" to provide a low-cost EV and instead focus on what he now calls a "blindingly obvious" strategy of extending the group's leadership in 'Full-Self-Driving'.

Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner last week said that even a delayed Model 2 launch would "make the future of the company tied to Tesla cracking the code on full driverless autonomy, which represents a significant technological, regulatory and operational challenge." Rosner lowered his rating on Tesla to hold from buy and slashed his price target by $66 to $123 a share.

4. New autonomy focus: financial-metric overhaul

Any indication that Tesla is moving from an EV manufacturing focus to a strategy powered by self-driving technologies would trigger a massive overhaul in sales and profit metrics for the group, which has been one of the most compelling U.S. corporate growth stories of the past 10 years.

Musk has said that in order to effectively lead the group, he needs to gain 25% control of Tesla, a level that's tied to a $55.8 billion pay package to which the company agreed in 2018. But that package was rejected as an “an unfathomable sum” by Delaware Chancery Judge Kathaleen McCormick last year.

Tesla is appealing the ruling, and lobbying for shareholder support, but Musk has said he'll pursue his AI and robotics ambitions outside the Tesla structure if he isn't able to secure the 25% threshold. 

Related: Analyst overhauls Tesla price target amid major strategy shift

That could leave investors to wonder whether he's fully committed to the EV maker as it's currently constructed, or whether he might take some of his higher-margin ideas — such as licensing 'Full Self-Driving' software to other carmakers — into a different entity.

"The AI story, autonomous, FSD, Optimus, robots is another major value to the Tesla story, but it's all behind closed doors," said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. "The Street needs to understand the road map, monetization, and overall strategy for the AI story at Tesla, which right now is getting no credit for its AI endeavors."

5. Stopping the stock slide

Ultimately, Musk's biggest challenge on the conference call today, and in the weeks that follow, will be convincing investors that the stock's year-to-date collapse, which has lopped nearly $350 billion from its market value, is coming to an end.

The stock is also suffering the second-longest drawdown of its share price since it went public in 2010. The slump has carved more than $760 billion from its market value since the November 2021 peak. 

Shorting Tesla shares has been a hugely profitable trade this year, with data from S3 Partners suggesting investors who have bet against Tesla are sitting on profits of $8.3 billion, with around 4.2% of the stock's float outstanding still sold short.

More Tesla:

• Cathie Wood buys $22 million of battered tech stock
• Analyst revises Tesla stock price target after robotaxi news
• Top analyst reveals new Tesla price target ahead of Q1 earnings

Unveiling a massive round of corporate layoffs, probably around 10%, or 1,400, of the company's global staff, has failed to stop the stock's rot. And to some degree it has added to concern that Tesla is facing a pivotal moment in its hypergrowth history. 

Musk himself told investors earlier this year that Tesla is "currently between two major growth waves," with "'Full-Self-Driving', next-gen vehicle and energy storage" powering the group's next advance.

He'll need to define that vision sharply if he's going to bring investors back on board.

"This is a fork-in-the-road time to get Tesla through this turbulent period; otherwise dark days could be ahead," said Ives of Wedbush. "With the ongoing debacle around margins and demand, Musk will need to quickly take the reins back in to regain confidence in the eyes of the Street."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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The waiting game continues for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks to cut interest rates this year. In the meantime, however, global equities have performed well. As discussed at the beginning of the year, the economic distortions from the pandemic have normalized, and 2024 is shaping up to be a “normal” expansionary year—that is, one with healthy levels of economic growth and inflation.

The Waiting Game Continues

Consumption continued to drive growth in the first quarter. In the United States, fourth-quarter annualized gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for inflation, grew to more than 3%. Unemployment remained below its long-term average. And purchasing managers indices (PMIs) indicated expansion in both services and manufacturing.

We expect a continuation of broad growth, particularly in the United States. We should see a bit less in Europe and accelerated strength in Japan. Our views on this have not changed. All in, we believe developed markets should continue to grow by 2%-plus on a sustainable basis.

As mentioned in previous quarters, while we believe inflation is largely in the rear-view mirror and should continue to moderate in both the United States and the euro area, it will likely remain above the historically low levels experienced during the last decade. We expect developed-market inflation of 2% to 2.5%, allowing central banks to ease monetary policy accordingly.

We believe the Fed is likely to lower nominal policy rates as early as the second quarter.

In fact, in March Fed policymakers maintained the forecast of three interest rate cuts this year (leading U.S. stocks to rally to all-time highs). We believe the Fed is likely to lower nominal policy rates as early as the second quarter, even as domestic economic growth remains resilient.

The same is true of the European Central Bank. The Bank of England has also held rates constant, edging toward three cuts as well, while the Swiss National Bank announced a surprise rate cut of 25 basis points, making it the first major central bank to start easing monetary policy.

Global Equities End the Quarter Strong

Strength in global equities continued through the first quarter on earnings results that were largely better than expected. Technology and communication services once again led, but sector performance within the MSCI ACWI Investible Market Index (IMI) Index was broadly positive, with energy, industrials, and financials also posting strong returns.

Has the United States Achieved a Soft Landing?

The United States appears to have achieved a soft landing, with corporate earnings generally better than expected in the first quarter.

The S&P 500 Index hit all-time highs, rising above 5,000 for the first time in February. The “Magnificent 7” stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) remained among the top performers, but nearly 75% of S&P 500 Index constituents reported earnings above expectations.

Notably, we expect the growth differential between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the S&P 500 Index to moderate in the coming quarters as sector outperformance broadens.

Europe Shows Economic Resilience

We also saw economic resilience in Europe, in part due to easing inflationary pressures. Sharply declining energy prices buoyed real incomes and consumption growth.

Growth in Europe appears to have bottomed at the end of 2023, and we expect improvement in the coming quarters. Earnings have outpaced expectations, and manufacturing PMIs have trended higher.

Japan—One of the Strongest Markets

Japan was one of the stronger markets during the first quarter, with investors optimistic about its macroeconomic outlook and structural tailwinds.

On the macro front, Japan is finally experiencing positive inflation that appears sustainable. One of the key data points to come out of Japan in the recent weeks was the result of the shunto wage negotiations. These negotiations resulted in the largest wage increase in Japan since 1991, at approximately 5.3%. We expect real wage increases to drive consumption growth, similar to what we have already seen play out in the United States and Europe.

A change to Japan’s corporate governance code should lead to better capital allocation decisions and, we believe, improving returns.

In terms of structural tailwinds, we are continuing to monitor a number of changes driving improvement in corporate performance. The Tokyo Stock Exchange has instituted a program targeting listed companies with low price-to-book ratios and low returns on equity. These companies are being challenged to devise a plan to improve their efficiency or potentially face delisting from the exchange. This should lead to companies focusing on profitability and business lines where they have competitive advantages and may lead to increased M&A activity.

Lastly, Japan has historically scored poorly on corporate governance metrics, but a change to the corporate governance code aims to address things such as board independence and board diversity, which should lead to better capital allocation decisions and, we believe, improving returns. It remains an area of research focus for our team.

China Challenged

China’s near-term outlook remains challenged despite recent monetary stimulus initiatives. We believe market performance in 2024 will depend largely on an economic recovery in which consumer confidence increases, the property market stabilizes, and youth unemployment improves.

Geopolitical risks are also likely to remain an overhang to equity valuations. While tensions have eased in recent months, as the 2024 U.S. election cycle turns to the general election, we expect increased rhetoric and policy proclamations to accelerate.

More than ever, we believe in the importance of active management within Chinese equites.

Against this backdrop, we believe valuations of Chinese equities remain quite attractive relative to their own long-term averages and emerging market valuations more broadly. China is currently trading at about a 20% discount to emerging markets, versus a long-term average discount of 4.5%.

More than ever, we believe in the importance of active management within Chinese equities.

Broader Distribution of Growth Likely

We continue to believe that the normalization of the post-pandemic global economy will result in broader distribution of growth.

This is also consistent with what we would expect during an economic expansion, when performance is driven by earnings growth, rather than valuations, and we expect a relatively strong breadth of profit growth.

The flight to safety has given way to the search for growth, and thus is likely to result in a shift of leadership from some of the more recent obvious mega-cap winners. Recent performance of the industrial and energy sectors is evidence of this.

Ken McAtamney, partner, is the head of the global equity team and a portfolio manager on William Blair’s global equity team.

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The post Equities Play a Waiting Game appeared first on William Blair.

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Tesla shares edged higher Tuesday, potentially snapping an eight-day losing streak, as investors brace for a crucial first-quarter earnings update from the electric-vehicle producer after the close of trading.

Shares in Tesla  (TSLA)  are still suffering their second-largest drawdown since the company went public in 2010 and have shed nearly $350 billion in market value this year. 

The group is now under tremendous pressure to regain investors' confidence and define its near-term growth prospects as EV demand has been fading and its profit margins have been narrowing.

Analysts estimate Tesla will post a bottom line of around 53 cents a share, down from 85 cents a share over the year-earlier period. 

Group revenue is pegged at $22.15 billion, down 5%, which would mark its first year-on-year decline since the 2020 pandemic.

Below is a quick compendium of what are likely to be the key takeaways from tonight's earnings report and the highly anticipated conference call with Chief Executive Elon Musk, slated for around 5:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time.

1. Profit margins: cars and related software

First and foremost, investors are going to scour Tesla's March-quarter earnings report for details of the amount of profit it managed to extract from each electric car, and each autonomous driving software package, it sells.

Tesla's profit margins, probably the most closely tracked metric by analysts on Wall Street, narrowed to 17.6% over the three months ended in December, down from a 23.8% margin over the year-earlier period.

Gross-profit margins, based on Refinitiv forecasts, are likely to narrow further, to around 17.2% over the three months ended in March, with estimates ranging between 14.7% and 20%. 

"Tesla will likely miss amid softening sales and margins (big delivery miss), and the company risks no growth in volume in 2024 with further pressure on margins," said Nancy Tengler, CEO at Laffer Tengler Investments in Scottsdale, Ariz. "But Musk has shown his ability and willingness to make hard decisions and do what’s necessary to dig himself out of a hole. No matter the cost."

2. Delivery forecasts: pressure from China figures

Tesla handed over 387,000 new cars to customers in the first quarter, a 20% decline from the record 484,000 it notched over the final months of 2023 and the biggest miss to estimates since Wall Street began compiling data in the mid-2010s.

Weaker-than-expected sales figures from China, where last month's volumes fell to the lowest levels in more than a year, are also adding to pressure on the market's aggressive full-year delivery targets for Tesla.

Related: Tesla stock slumps after startling China decision

Tesla told investors in February that full-year delivery volumes would be "notably lower" than the 1.8 million tally from 2023, but it declined to provide a firm target. 

Wall Street analysts have pared their own forecasts, but they'll be on high alert for any changes to either the group's 2024 estimate or a hard target from Musk following its challenging opening quarter.

3. Low-cost Model 2 plans: Whether and when 

Investors and analysts have been waiting for a detailed update on Tesla's plans to produce a low-cost EV that can both challenge the group's China-based rivals and cement its position as the world's leading carmaker in the space.

However, earlier this month, Reuters reported that the Model 2 project had been canceled in favor of a focus on robotaxi production, which will leverage the group's push into artificial-intelligence-enhanced autonomous-driving software.

Related: Analysts take aim at Tesla stock after Elon Musk makes unpopular decision

Musk called the report "lies" but didn't address its specifics. That left analysts to wonder whether he was planning to pivot away from his "master plan" to provide a low-cost EV and instead focus on what he now calls a "blindingly obvious" strategy of extending the group's leadership in Full-Self-Driving.

Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner last week said that even a delayed Model 2 launch would "make the future of the company tied to Tesla cracking the code on full driverless autonomy, which represents a significant technological, regulatory and operational challenge." Rosner lowered his rating on Tesla to hold from buy and slashed his price target by $66 to $123 a share.

4. New autonomy focus: financial-metric overhaul

Any indication that Tesla is moving from an EV manufacturing focus to a strategy powered by self-driving technologies would trigger a massive overhaul in sales and profit metrics for the group, which has been one of the most compelling U.S. corporate growth stories of the past 10 years.

Musk has said that in order to effectively lead the group, he needs to gain 25% control of Tesla, a level that's tied to a $55.8 billion pay package to which the company agreed in 2018. But that package was rejected as an “an unfathomable sum” by Delaware Chancery Judge Kathaleen McCormick last year.

Tesla is appealing the ruling, and lobbying for shareholder support, but Musk has said he'll pursue his AI and robotics ambitions outside the Tesla structure if he isn't able to secure the 25% threshold. 

Related: Analyst overhauls Tesla price target amid major strategy shift

That could leave investors to wonder whether he's fully committed to the EV maker as it's currently constructed, or whether he might take some of his higher-margin ideas — such as licensing Full Self-Driving software to other carmakers — into a different entity.

"The AI story, autonomous, FSD, Optimus, robots is another major value to the Tesla story, but it's all behind closed doors," said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Wall Street "needs to understand the road map, monetization, and overall strategy for the AI story at Tesla, which right now is getting no credit for its AI endeavors."

5. Stopping the stock slide

Ultimately, Musk's biggest challenge on the conference call today, and in the weeks that follow, will be convincing investors that the stock's year-to-date collapse, which has lopped nearly $350 billion from its market value, is coming to an end.

The stock is also suffering the second-longest drawdown of its share price since it went public in 2010. The slump has carved more than $760 billion from its market value since the November 2021 peak. 

Shorting Tesla shares has been a hugely profitable trade this year, with data from S3 Partners suggesting investors who have bet against Tesla are sitting on profits of $8.3 billion, with around 4.2% of the stock's float outstanding still sold short.

More Tesla:

• Cathie Wood buys $22 million of battered tech stock
• Analyst revises Tesla stock price target after robotaxi news
• Top analyst reveals new Tesla price target ahead of Q1 earnings

Unveiling a massive round of corporate layoffs, probably around 10%, or 1,400, of the company's global staff, has failed to stop the stock's rot. And to some degree it has added to concern that Tesla is facing a pivotal moment in its hypergrowth history. 

Musk himself told investors earlier this year that Tesla is "currently between two major growth waves," with "Full-Self-Driving, next-gen vehicle and energy storage" powering the group's next advance.

He'll need to define that vision sharply if he's going to bring investors back on board.

"This is a fork-in-the-road time to get Tesla through this turbulent period; otherwise dark days could be ahead," said Ives of Wedbush. "With the ongoing debacle around margins and demand, Musk will need to quickly take the reins back in to regain confidence in the eyes of the Street."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

Read More