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US PMIs Scream Stagflation As Manufacturing ‘Contracts’, Prices Rise, Heaviest Job Cuts Since GFC

US PMIs Scream Stagflation As Manufacturing ‘Contracts’, Prices Rise, Heaviest Job Cuts Since GFC

After a mixed bag from preliminary April…

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US PMIs Scream Stagflation As Manufacturing 'Contracts', Prices Rise, Heaviest Job Cuts Since GFC

After a mixed bag from preliminary April European PMIs (Services strong-er, Manufacturing weaker-er, surging prices)...

Accelerated increases in input costs, likely driven not only by higher oil prices but also, more concerningly, by higher wages, are a cause for scrutiny Concurrently service-sector companies have raised their prices at a faster rate than in March, fueling expectations that services inflation will persist. ”

and after March US PMIs exposed the end of the disinflation narrative...

"Most notable was an especially steep rise in prices charged for consumer goods, which rose at a pace not seen for 16 months, underscoring the likely bumpy path in bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% target. ”

...S&P Global's preliminary US f°r April just dropped and they were ugly with both Manufacturing and Services disappointingly dropping further as the former    dropped back into contraction:

  • •    Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 50.9 (Exp: 52.0; March: 51.7) - 5-month low.

  • •    Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 49.9 (Exp 52.0; March: 51.9) - 4-month low.

Source: Bloomberg

Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

The US economic upturn lost momentum at the start of the second quarter, with the flash PMI survey respondents reporting below-trend business activity growth in April. Further pace may be lost in the coming months, as April saw inflows of new business fall for the first time in six months and firms’ future output expectations slipped to a five-month low amid heightened concern about the outlook.

The more challenging business environment prompted companies to cut payroll numbers at a rate not seen since the global financial crisis if the early pandemic lockdown months are excluded.

After March showed accelerating prices, flash April data confirmed the trend

Notably, the drivers of inflation have changed.

"Manufacturing has now registered the steeper rate of price increases in three of the past four months, with factory cost pressures intensifying in April amid higher raw material and fuel prices, contrasting with the wagerelated services-led price pressures seen throughout much of 2023.”

So slower growth and much faster inflation - that does not sound like a recipe for rate-cuts... in fact quite the opposite.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 10:08

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World’s Biggest M&A Deal Is Terrible For Bonds

World’s Biggest M&A Deal Is Terrible For Bonds

Four years ago, we wrote an article, mocking the unspeakable reality that it appeared "The…

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World's Biggest M&A Deal Is Terrible For Bonds

Four years ago, we wrote an article, mocking the unspeakable reality that it appeared "The Fed and The Treasury had now merged"...

Last week, that reality dawned on one of Wall Street's best and brightest as BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett headlined his latest note with a 'zeitgeist' quote that sounded awfully familiar:

"Biggest piece of M&A in past 12 months was the merger of Treasury & Fed.”

And this morning, Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White takes up the story below, noting that monetary and fiscal policy in the US is becoming more intertwined as the Federal Reserve and the Treasury - implicitly or otherwise - increasingly coordinate their actions.

That’s a structural negative for US Treasuries, and signals an end to the long underperformance of commodities and other real assets.

Reflecting on the quote above Michael Hartnett of BofA - describing the greater coordination of fiscal and monetary policy in the US and the winnowing away of the Fed’s independence from the Treasury - White agrees that, viewed as an M&A deal, it’s certainly massive, given the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet and the government’s $34 trillion of debt.

More importantly, it’s hazardous for Treasuries as it tilts the risks for persistently higher inflation firmly to the upside, even though the market continues to be under-appreciative of the ever-more malign landscape. Positioning in USTs has fallen this year, but it is still likely to be net long, while outright shorts remain near survey lows, corroborated by the muted short interest in Treasury ETFs such as the TLT.

At the same time as entrenched inflation is bad for fixed income, it’s also very positive for real assets such as commodities. They have relentlessly underperformed financial assets - stocks and bonds - over the last four decades.

Governments are inherently inflationary. Wealth is very unevenly distributed, with many dollars held in only a few hands. But every person has exactly one vote. Thus there is an incentive for governments to take wealth from the rich — where it is mainly saved — and redistribute it to the less well-off, where it is more likely to be spent.

The sort of spending governments engage in in the run-up to elections is likely to be discretionary and debt-funded — which government wants to raise taxes ahead of a vote? Mandatory spending, such as entitlement programs and defense, is likely to see its biggest boost when the economy is in a slump. Increases in discretionary spending, on the other hand, more often than not happen when the economy is growing, and therefore are more likely to fan inflation.

Discretionary spending in the US had already started to grow before the pandemic, and its five-year growth rate has leveled off at an elevated level and not yet fallen. As the chart below shows, longer-term rises in discretionary spending precede structural rises in inflation. Today’s spending is the largest ever seen in the US outside of war or recession.

How is government spending stoking inflation in this cycle? Mainly through supporting corporate profits. Deeper fiscal deficits lead to higher profits and profit margins (see chart below), as net spending in one sector must lead to net saving in the others, with the corporate sector the main beneficiary as government deficits support spending in the household sector.

This is a marked change from the 1970s when wages directly drove prices higher. With much less trade-union membership and weakened union power, that’s less of a risk today.

But profits are lining up to be the main vector of persistent and elevated inflation in this cycle. The unique conditions of the pandemic allowed firms to raise profit margins almost as fast as they ever have done. A profit-price-wage spiral is a greater likelihood, and could already be underway.

The risk is that an increase in margins leads to higher prices and then to higher wages. Margins are increased again, but to a greater level than before, to maintain profits in real terms as prices have risen since the last increase.

Economy-wide margins are off their recent highs, but are still significantly elevated compared to their pre-pandemic levels. Labor costs in the decades running up until 2020 made up the bulk of corporate prices, accounting for over half of them on average. But that relationship has inverted since the pandemic, with profits now making up 45% of selling prices, versus under 30% for the cost of labor. Profits now drive prices.

Elevated government deficits can keep the carousel going by supporting spending. The CBO projects discretionary outlay’s five-year growth rate should fall back toward 10% in the next few years from over 35% now. But that’s smoking hopium. The expectations electorates have from their governments markedly rose in the pandemic, with the sovereign expected to underwrite an ever widening basket of risks. The “fiscal put” is becoming embedded and the longer spending keeps rising to pay for it, the harder it will be to reverse.

Government borrowing to fund discretionary spending is a highly inflationary mix on its own, but the addition of a compliant central bank fans the flames further. Notionally the Fed is still independent, but in actuality its maneuverability is increasingly circumscribed for three reasons:

  1. the large amount of Treasuries outstanding and the rising interest payable on them;

  2. the ungainly size of the Treasury’s account at the Fed;

  3. and the increasing proportion of short-term bills, i.e. short-term liabilities that are very money-like.

History is replete with examples of large government deficits monetized by central banks preceding high or hyper-inflation, from China in the late 1940s, to Greece in the early 40s and to Zimbabwe early in this century. That’s not to say we should expect the US to see price growth hit such stupefying levels, but to underscore that spendthrift governments and subservient central banks is a terrible combination for price stability.

Treasuries are unlikely to thrive in this environment.

Nothing moves in a straight line, but the net path for yields is likely to be higher in the coming months and years. Embedded inflation is also likely to drive increasing demand for real assets such as property and commodities, ending their decades of underperformance.

Inflation is one of the most regressive of taxes, as well as being one of the hardest to lower. Almost everyone loses when it is elevated. Even though M&A deals are meant to be value creating, this one is likely to be precisely the opposite.

Tyler Durden Tue, 04/23/2024 - 11:10

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Nike CEO blames oddly specific problem for brand issues

The footwear and apparel company has been losing ground to its competitors.

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Blink and you might miss an important trend when it comes to the fashion industry.

Thanks to the rapid integration of social media by virtually all fashion brands – and the breakneck pace at which fans of fashion use social media – trends or movements can come and go in the blink of an eye. 

Related: Some Walmarts make surprising self-checkout change

Whether its brands being showcased on Snapchat during New York Fashion Week, the metaverse hosting its very own fashion week, or influencers showing off their latest styles on TikTok, it can be tough to keep up. 

This is especially the case with footwear. As athletes influencers build their own brands (and social media presence), it's important for them to stay on top of what's considered cool to wear, and what may be a little outdated. In fact, it's kind of a part of their jobs. 

Currently, what's old is cool again. Vintage footwear styles like Adidas' Sambas and Campus sneakers are everywhere from the high streets of London to college campuses in the United States. So-called dad shoes – specifically New Balance's highly popular Unisex 530 sneakers – are almost always sold out in stores and online. 

So establishing a foothold for Nike  (NKE) , which has historically specialized in sleek silhouettes and bright colors, has been tough when neutral and chunky styles are now popular. 

As a result, Nike has been struggling to gain back the enthusiasm its brand once enjoyed so steadily during the earlier 2000s. 

A pedestrian walks past a Nike store in Hong Kong.

SOPA Images/Getty Images

Nike CEO identifies a problem

Some CEOs have called out Nike, claiming "they stopped a little bit bringing in new stuff,” per JD Sports CEO Régis Schultz earlier this month, adding "shoppers get bored very quickly."

Aware that growth and imagination seem to be an issue at his company, Nike CEO John Donahue isolated one particular issue that may be to blame, claiming the problem "is fairly straightforward."

Since the onset of the pandemic, Nike adopted a remote work policy that Donahue said hurt its competitive edge. 

“But even more importantly, our employees were working from home for two and a half years,” Donahoe said in an interview with CNBC. “And in hindsight, it turns out, it’s really hard to do bold, disruptive innovation, to develop a boldly disruptive shoe, on Zoom.”

Eager to right the ship, however, Donahue says the company has been working on a “bold, disruptive” plan to churn out new products and hopefully reinvigorate excitement for the brand. 

“So we realigned our company, and over the last year we have been ruthlessly focused on rebuilding our disruptive innovation pipeline along with our iterative innovation pipeline,” he said. “So the pipeline is as strong as ever.”

Nike plans a comeback

Nike stock is down 11% year-to-date, and in December the sneaker maker slashed its revenue outlook for the forthcoming fiscal year, citing weaker digital demand in the U.S. and stronger headwinds in its key Europe-Mideast-Asia region. 

It also announced a $2 billion cost-cutting plan. In February, Nike laid off 2% of its employees. It has also been working to streamline and simplify some of its lines.

But the sneaker maker is planning a comeback in 2024. 

It plans to make the upcoming 2024 Paris Summer Olympics an exhibition for some of its refreshed product lines, specifically in the track and field category. 

“We’ve done more to advance running than any brand in the world over the last 50 years and we continue to lead with elite runners,” Donahoe added. “Innovation has always been what’s marked Nike in running, as in other categories, and so we’re not just going to copy what other people do.”

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The language of insolvency: why getting it wrong can harm struggling firms

The law can help struggling firms turn their business around, but stigma around the legal terms may be deterring companies from acting in time.

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Business failures are on the rise in Britain Michaelpuche/Shutterstock

Business failures are on the rise in Britain, with several high-profile names lost already this year. But since the 1980s, the UK has made it a priority to throw a lifeline to struggling companies. It appears, however, that these efforts to enhance the law are being hampered by sloppy language in the media, increasing the stigma around insolvency and potentially deterring businesses from seeking help.

Legal terms and concepts need to be accurate. The law of insolvency is no different.

Unfortunately, accuracy is often missing in insolvency coverage. MPs have used insolvency terms incorrectly, while media outlets, including the BBC, have a habit of referring to insolvency procedures in overly negative, and sometimes inaccurate, terms. In particular, the administration procedure, which is aimed at rescuing a company, is often discussed using words like “collapse”. This misleadingly associates it with the process of liquidation, which is aimed at removing a company from the market.

So what is the correct language to use when we’re discussing insolvency?

Corporate insolvency law

There are no fewer than six procedures which can be used by struggling companies.

They are found in the Insolvency Act 1986 (liquidation, administration, company voluntary arrangements (CVAs) and standalone moratoriums) and in the Companies Act 2006 (schemes of arrangement and restructuring plans).

Liquidation is used to gather in and sell the assets of the insolvent company for the benefit of its creditors – that is, the parties who are owed money by the insolvent firm. The liquidator then distributes the value of the assets among the creditors of the company in a ranked order, known as the “insolvency waterfall”. The liquidator replaces the board of directors and takes control of the day-to-day management of the company. At the end of the liquidation process, the company is dissolved and no longer exists. For example, Lloyds Pharmacy has recently gone through liquidation, and subsequently disappeared from high streets and Sainsbury’s stores.

Administration is a procedure that has been used by several high-profile names already this year, including Ted Baker most recently. The procedure was introduced in 1986 as a tool to rescue companies (that is, keep a firm afloat rather than liquidate it). Similar to the liquidation process, directors of the company are sidelined during administration and the administrator assumes day-to-day management.

There is also the Special Administration procedure, which is used for certain nationally important sectors, and which the Liberal Democrats have suggested for troubled Thames Water.

CVAs are another rescue procedure. It is a voluntary arrangement between the company and its creditors, supervised and approved by an insolvency practitioner (that is, someone who is licensed to act on behalf of an insolvent company). Crucially, a CVA is called a “debtor in possession” procedure because directors are left “in possession” (in charge) of the company – unlike in a liquidation or administration process. For example, after calling in administrators earlier this year, The Body Shop is now thought to be seeking a CVA.

The Body Shop store frontage
Can a CVA help The Body Shop turn things around? Yau Ming Low/Shutterstock

The standalone moratorium (introduced in 2020) can be used by companies together with, or independently from, any other procedure. Directors are given 20 business days to assess their rescue and recovery options. During the moratorium, the company will continue to operate under the control of the directors and the moratorium allows them the 20 days’ breathing space from creditors.

The scheme of arrangement, regulated by the Companies Act 2006, is a procedure available to companies that are not yet insolvent. It is used as a debt restructuring tool or to alter the company’s financial obligations. Essentially, it involves a deal between a company and its creditors and shareholders. Think of it as something akin to an individual consolidating their credit cards, or arranging a plan to repay arrears.

Lastly, closely modelled on the scheme of arrangement, the restructuring plan procedure introduced in 2020 is available to companies that have encountered, or may encounter, financial difficulties that are likely to affect their ability to carry on business.

The reality of corporate insolvency

Clearly, the legislative priority in the UK over the past 40 years has been to promote corporate rescue and renewal. This should, in principle, be particularly useful to British businesses at a time when the UK has seen a record number of business failures, with no fewer than 26,595 corporate insolvencies in 2023. That figure is 14% higher than in 2022 and 43% higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. It is predicted that this number will rise to 33,000 in 2024.

With an increasing number of companies in financial difficulty, we might have expected that corporate rescue cases would have risen too. But this is not the case. Rescue cases have dropped from 10% in 2019 to a rather woeful 6% in 2023. That means that in 2023, 94% of these companies (by our calculations 21,961 in total) were liquidated.

This shows that while the law is here to help, something is preventing struggling businesses from using it. While there are more factors at play, it is clear that inaccurate wording, including misleading language by politicians and the media, play a very important role. The stigma around experiencing financial difficulties and the negative way this is talked about may prevent businesses from looking for help at a time when it would provide the greatest chance of turning things around.

This is not just an academic point but it has real-world ramifications. The economic climate is challenging enough for companies. Lumping further issues on to indebted firms really isn’t helpful.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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