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Study finds X’s (formerly Twitter’s) community notes provide accurate, credible answers to vaccine misinformation

As the proliferation of misinformation continues to pose a significant challenge on social media platforms, a beacon of hope emerges in research from the…

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As the proliferation of misinformation continues to pose a significant challenge on social media platforms, a beacon of hope emerges in research from the University of California San Diego.

Screenshot of Community Notes on X

Credit: Screenshot by Qualcomm Institute, UC San Diego

As the proliferation of misinformation continues to pose a significant challenge on social media platforms, a beacon of hope emerges in research from the University of California San Diego.

A new study published in JAMA led by John W. Ayers, Ph.D., from the Qualcomm Institute within UC San Diego, finds that X’s Community Notes, a crowdsourced approach to addressing misinformation, helped counter false health information in popular posts about COVID-19 vaccines with accurate, credible responses.

“Since the World Health Organization declared an ‘infodemic’ of misinformation, there have been surprisingly few achievements to celebrate,” said Ayers, who is vice chief of innovation in the Division of Infectious Disease and Global Public Health at UC San Diego School of Medicine and Deputy Director of Informatics at the Altman Clinical and Translational Research Institute in addition to Qualcomm Institute scientist. “X’s Community Notes have emerged as an innovative solution, pushing back with accurate and credible health information.” 

Understanding Social Media Misinformation Countermeasures

Before the inception of Community Notes, social media companies employed various tactics to tackle misinformation, including censoring, shadowbanning (muting a user or their content on a platform without informing them), and adding generic warning labels to problematic content. “However, social media companies have been unwilling to disclose details of the inner workings of their efforts against misinformation or to share the necessary data to study their utility,” said Mathew Allen, study co-author and UC San Diego medical student. 

In late 2022, X introduced Community Notes—a paradigm shift in the fight against misinformation. This novel approach empowers volunteer, independent, anonymous, and ideologically diverse contributors to identify posts containing misinformation and to rectify misinformation by appending informative “notes” to suspect posts. The process is controlled by the public, instead of decision-makers at the company.

“Because Community Notes is a uniquely open-sourced misinformation countermeasure, it can be studied and improved using the scientific method,” added Allen. 

Evaluating X’s Community Notes

The research team obtained all notes that mentioned terms related to vaccines or COVID along with their corresponding posts made during the first year of the Community Notes program, from December 12, 2022, through December 12, 2023. Of 45,783 notes, 657 address COVID-19 vaccination, with the monthly rate of notes increasing from 22 to 186 during the study. 

A team of evaluators working with an infectious disease physician and virologist evaluated the subject, accuracy, and source credibility of randomly sampled notes. Of the notes examined, 51% addressed adverse events attributed to COVID-19 vaccination; 37%, conspiracy theories; 7%, vaccine recommendations; and 5% vaccine effectiveness. In terms of accuracy, 97.5% of notes were entirely accurate; 2%, partially accurate, meaning they addressed scientifically debated conclusions; and 0.5%, inaccurate. In terms of sources, 49% of notes cited highly credible sources (such as primary data sources, like peer-reviewed studies); 44%, moderately credible sources (such as major news outlets or fact checkers); and 7%, low credibility sources (such as blogs or tabloids).

“Notes typically addressed obvious misinformation, offering corrections from credible sources,” said Nimit Desai, a study co-author and UC San Diego medical student. “It’s remarkable to witness the online community’s adeptness in steering conversations towards accurate and high-quality evidence when provided with the right tools.”

The sample of notes studied was attached to posts that averaged 1,064,981 views, extrapolating to between 500 million and 1 billion views for all COVID-19 vaccination-related posts noted. 

“Our study shifts the focus from talking about misinformation to taking action, offering practical insights into social media strategies that protect public health,” explained Mark Dredze, Ph.D., the John C Malone Professor of Computer Science at Johns Hopkins University and study co-author. “Although we couldn’t examine how these notes directly influenced people’s beliefs or actions, the characteristics we analyzed have consistently been shown to predict a message’s effectiveness.”

Learning from and Enhancing X’s Community Notes

U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Robert Califf recently argued vaccination is approaching a dangerous tipping point because of social media misinformation. “One viable avenue for the public health community to combat this threat is to actively engage in social media-based interventions, such as Community Notes,” said physician-scientist and study co-author Davey Smith, M.D., chief of the Division of Infectious Disease and Global Public Health and professor in the UC San Diego School of Medicine, co-director of the Altman Clinical and Translational Research Institute at UC San Diego, and immunologist at UC San Diego Health. “While only a fraction of vaccine misinformation posts are currently addressed, the ample room for expansion suggests significant opportunities to amplify the impact of Community Notes.”

Eric Leas, Ph.D., co-author of the study, assistant professor at the UC San Diego Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science and Qualcomm Institute affiliate, highlighted the transformative role of Community Notes in combating misinformation. “Rather than censoring misleading content, Community Notes fosters a learning environment where users can glean insights from corrections to misinformation to prevent similar misunderstandings in the future. By providing context and credible sources alongside contentious posts, the platform empowers users to discern fact from fiction, a skill they will find useful as they navigate all claims.”

Ayers concluded, “Other social media platforms should embrace transparency by open-sourcing their misinformation countermeasures. This step is crucial for enabling independent scientific scrutiny, which will enhance public trust in and amplify adoption of the most impactful strategies.”

In addition to Ayers, Allen, Desai, Leas, Dredze, and Smith, authors of the JAMA paper, “Characteristics of X’s (Twitter) Community Notes Addressing COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation” (JAMA doi:10.1001/jama.2024.4800), include Aiden Namazi, a student research intern at UC San Diego’s Qualcomm Institute.


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WTI Jumps After Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Inventory Build, Gasoline Demand (Reportedly) Slumps

WTI Jumps After Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Inventory Build, Gasoline Demand (Reportedly) Slumps

Oil prices are drifting lower this morning,…

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WTI Jumps After Bigger-Than-Expected Crude Inventory Build, Gasoline Demand (Reportedly) Slumps

Oil prices are drifting lower this morning, despite API reporting a surprise crude inventory draw last night, as hopes that geopolitical tensions are easing (hope is not a strategy) combined with a reduced expectation of economy-juicing rate-cuts are weighing on crude prices.

Supporting the upside, the US Senate, meanwhile, passed tougher measures against Iran in response to its attack on Israel earlier this month, with President Joe Biden saying he’ll sign the legislation into law. But the market is clearly calling Biden's bluff on this threat as he faces soaring pump prices domestically which will do nothing to help his "but I fixed inflation" narrative into the election...

Source: Bloomberg

However, for now, all eyes are on the official inventory and supply data for any signs of overall tightness, and refined products demand as the summer driving season is fast approaching.

API

  • Crude -3.23mm (+500k exp)

  • Cushing -898k

  • Gasoline -595k (-1.5mm exp)

  • Distillates +724k (-1.0mm exp)

DOE

  • Crude -6.4mm (+500k exp)

  • Cushing -659k

  • Gasoline -634k (-1.5mm exp)

  • Distillates +1.6mm (-1.0mm exp)

Confirming API's report, the official data showed crude inventories plunging last week by the most since January. On the product side, it was mixed with gasoline drawing down by distillates building...

Source: Bloomberg

There was a 909k b/d drop in the adjustment factor versus last week, the biggest decline since February, coinciding with the big increase in crude exports. At 257k b/d this week’s balancing measure was pretty small by its own highly volatile standards.

Source: Bloomberg

The Biden admin added 793k barrels to the SPR last week - the largest addition since January... and probably the last!

Source: Bloomberg

Implied gasoline demand fell yet again, nearly slipping back below 2022 seasonal levels for the first time since early March.

The figure typically sees decent growth at this point in the year, yet a post-Spring Break slump appears to have become the norm since 2020.

In comparison to pre-pandemic demand, the figure is at its lowest since 2014.

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production was flat at 13.1mm b/d (near record highs) and we note a very modest rise in rig count trends starting...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $83.00 ahead of the API data and jumped back into the green for the day after the crude draw...

The conflict in the Middle East has "undoubtedly exacerbated tensions in an already volatile region," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, told MarketWatch.

"While the recent attacks have been downplayed, the potential for further escalation cannot be entirely dismissed."

However, "there's a lesson to be gleaned from this situation, particularly in how swiftly demand responded to higher oil and gasoline prices, as evidenced by the increase in U.S. oil stockpiles," he said.

Finally, timespreads are signaling tighter conditions, with the gap between Brent’s two nearest contracts widening to $1.05 a barrel in backwardation, a bullish pattern in which the nearer contract trades at a premium to the next in sequence. That compares with 69 cents a week ago.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/24/2024 - 10:38

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In addition to housing, manufacturing is range-bound as well

  – by New Deal democratFirst off, let me reiterate that my focus this year is on manufacturing and construction. That’s because these are the two…

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 - by New Deal democrat


First off, let me reiterate that my focus this year is on manufacturing and construction. That’s because these are the two sectors the waxing and waning of which have almost always determined if the US economy is growing or not. By contrast, for the past half century or more the production and consumption of services has tended to increase even right through most recessions.

With that framework in mind, yesterday I wrote about how, following interest rates, housing is range-bound.


This morning durable goods orders for March were reported, which gives me a good opportunity to update the state of the maufacturing sector.

Total durable goods orders rose 2.6% month over month. Core capital goods orders rose 6.0%. These series are very volatile. Thus the big increase in orders was only the third largest in the past 9 months, during which there have also been three months where orders declined -4% or more.

Stepping back and taking a longer term look shows that core capital goods orders (black in the graph below) have been generally flat for the past two years, while total orders (blue) may have risen and then fallen a little. This is similar to the trajectory of manufacturing production (red) which peaked in late 2022, but has only declined about -1% since then:



The YoY look at the same data shows just how “unchanged” the trend has been:



When we compare with the 25+ years before the pandemic, we see a number of instances - 1998, 2012, 2015-16, and 2019 - where both new orders and production declined significantly into negative territory YoY without a recession occurring:



The sideways trend is also apparent in manufacturing employment (blue in the graph below), which has stayed in a 0.2% range for the past 18 months. Average weekly hours (red) has declined -1 hour or more, which before the China shock of 2000 and since had always meant a recession. But hours above 40.5 per week are mainly about overtime; thus since then the decline must go below 40.5 hours to be signficant:



Finally, turning from the production to consumption side, real personal consumption on goods, which was similarly rangebound from 2021 through the first half of 2023, has been on an increasing trend since:



While having both housing and manufacturing in a rangebound, mainly flat trend isn’t good, it isn’t recessionary either, as services provision and spending continue to perform very well.

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“They Think There Are Too Many Of Us On The Planet” – Alex Newman Warns Of Tyrannical UN Plans For Our Future

"They Think There Are Too Many Of Us On The Planet" – Alex Newman Warns Of Tyrannical UN Plans For Our Future

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Award-winning…

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"They Think There Are Too Many Of Us On The Planet" - Alex Newman Warns Of Tyrannical UN Plans For Our Future

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Award-winning journalist Alex Newman, author of the popular book “Deep State” and the new best-selling book called “Indoctrinating Our Children to Death,” says the UN’s quest for total tyrannical control of your life is coming sooner than you could imagine. 

Newman explains, The bigger story here that people are not paying attention to is the UN is coming together in September... and they are having ‘The Summit of the Future.’ "

"They are telling us they are going to bring out radical drastic reforms in the structure of the UN... and the power of the UN.  Think of it as the biggest power grab ever at the global level.  The Secretary General of the UN (António Guterres) has put out briefs where he is calling for the UN to be the one world global dictatorship with him at the helm.  In emergencies, the UN would have all power in emergencies and have all power to oversee emergency response...

They say the crisis could be a climate crisis, an economic crisis, environmental crisis, pandemic crisis, black swan crisis or maybe something from outer space.  So, basically, anything could be a crisis, and when the Secretary General declares a crisis, all power and authority would go to the UN.  This is like a blank check on the wealth and liberty on every person on the planet, and this is coming soon.  It is imminent.  This is coming in September at the UN, and it is a power grab of historic proportions. 

They know their time is short, and they are going for the big enchilada here.  This is really a summit for a tyrannical future...

They want control of every aspect of your life.”

If you think the “depopulation” or murder program by the Deep State is some sort of conspiracy theory or myth, think again.  Newman says:

“One of the interesting things about going to the UN conferences is they are totally open and totally transparent about the fact that they think there are way too many of us on this planet. 

We are taking up their space and consuming their resources.  They say this openly. 

They say there are way too many people having way too many babies, and we have to drastically cut back on the number of people on the planet.  They have a whole agency dedicated to this called the UN Population Fund.”

One sure fire way to kill a lot of people in a short amount of time is war.  Newman says:

“They have understood, the globalists, the Deep State, the evil doers and the sick cabal, have understood for a very long time that war was the best mechanism for bringing about their totalitarian one world government. 

This is not speculation on my part.  This is what they say.  Their game plan is war, famine, energy crisis and economic crisis.  These are all tools and catalysts for accelerating this agenda. 

If millions of people die in a third world war, and it does not matter if it is Iran and Israel, or China and Tiawan, or Ukraine and Russia, it really does not matter, they want millions and millions of people dead so people will give up their attachment to the nation state, self-government and individual liberty and give up anything, money or freedom, anything to make it stop.”

Don’t lose hope because Newman also talks about all the things you can do to not comply with tyranny.   

Newman also points out what state and local governments can do and are doing to resist this UN total control of everything.  Newman says, “We are at war, and everyone needs to put on the full armor of God.”

There is much more in the 40-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard-hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the runaway best-selling new book called “Indoctrinating Our Children to Death,” for 4.20.24.

*  *  *

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

To order Newman’s new book called “Indoctrinating Our Children to Death,” click here. Newman’s website is called LibertySentinel.org.  There is lots of free information and articles. For a copy of Alex Newman’s popular book “Deep State,” click here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/24/2024 - 07:20

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