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Loan servicing software market size to increase by USD 2,130.07 million: North America will account for 49% of the market’s growth during the forecast period – Technavio

Loan servicing software market size to increase by USD 2,130.07 million: North America will account for 49% of the market’s growth during the forecast period – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Feb. 1, 2023

NEW YORK, Feb. 1, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — The …

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Loan servicing software market size to increase by USD 2,130.07 million: North America will account for 49% of the market's growth during the forecast period - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Feb. 1, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The Loan Servicing Software Market by Application, Deployment, and Geography - Forecast and Analysis 2023-2027 report has been published by Technavio. Market growth is estimated to accelerate at a CAGR of 10.72% and register an incremental growth of USD 2,130.07 million during the forecast period. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of growth opportunities at regional levels, new product launches, the latest trends, and the post-pandemic recovery of the global market. Download PDF Sample Report.

Regional analysis

By region, the global loan servicing software market is segmented into North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and the Middle East and Africa. North America will account for 49% of the market's growth during the forecast period. The adoption of digital borrowing and lending funds is driving the growth of the regional market.

Company profiles

The loan servicing software market report includes information on the key products and recent developments of leading vendors, including:

  • Black Knight Inc: The company offers loan servicing software solutions such as Mortgage Servicing Platform.
  • Constellation Software Inc: The company offers loan servicing software solutions such as Constellation Financial Software. 
  • Cyrus Technoedge Solutions Pvt. Ltd: The company offers loan servicing software solutions such as Loan Management Software. 
  • DownHome Solutions: The company offers loan servicing software solutions such as DownHome Loan Manager. 
  • Fidelity National Information Services Inc: The company offers loan servicing software solutions such as FIS Commercial Loan Servicing. 
  • Financial Industry Computer Systems Inc
  • Fiserv Inc.
  • Graveco Software Inc.
  • LOAN SERVICING SOFT Inc
  • Nortridge Software LLC
  • Nucleus Software Exports Ltd
  • Oracle Corp.
  • To gain access to more vendor profiles available with Technavio, buy the report!

Market dynamics

The market is driven by factors such as the rising demand for efficiency in lending operations, the rise in adoption of cloud-based loan servicing software offerings, and the rising cost of loan servicing. However, the data privacy and security issues associated with cloud-based products and services are hindering market growth.

Competitive analysis

The competitive scenario categorizes companies based on various performance indicators. Some of the factors considered include the financial performance of companies over the past few years, growth strategies, product innovations, new product launches, investments, and growth in market share, among others. Request a Sample

Market segmentation

  • By application, the market is segmented into banks, credit unions, mortgage lenders, brokers, and others. The bank segment accounted for the largest share of the market in 2021.
  • By geography, the market is segmented into North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and the Middle East and Africa. North America held the largest share of the market in 2021.

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Contract Life-cycle Management (CLM) Software Market by Component, Deployment and Geography - Forecast and Analysis 2023-2027: The contract life-cycle management (CLM) software market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 18.8% between 2022 and 2027. The size of the market is forecast to increase by USD 2,922.58 million. The pricing strategies of vendors are notably driving the market growth, although factors such as high implementation and maintenance costs may impede the market growth. 

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What are the key data covered in this loan servicing software market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the loan servicing software market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the loan servicing software market and its contribution to the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the loan servicing software market across North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of loan servicing software market vendors

Loan Servicing Software Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

163

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 10.72%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 2130.07 million

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

10.36

Regional analysis

North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

North America at 49%

Key countries

US, Canada, Japan, UK, and France

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Abrigo, Applied Business Software Inc, Black Knight Inc, C Loans Inc., Constellation Software Inc., Cyrus Technoedge Solutions Pvt. Ltd., DownHome Solutions, Fidelity National Information Services Inc., Financial Industry Computer Systems Inc, Fiserv Inc., Graveco Software Inc., LOAN SERVICING SOFT Inc, Nortridge Software LLC, Nucleus Software Exports Ltd, Oracle Corp., PCFS Solutions, Q2 Holdings Inc., Shaw Systems Associates LLC, and Sopra Banking Software

Market dynamics

Parent Market Analysis; Market growth inducers and obstacles; Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis for the forecast period

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Browse for Technavio "Industrials" Research Reports

Table of Contents

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Application
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Deployment
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global loan servicing software market 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global loan servicing software market 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.2 Application Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Application Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.3 Deployment Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Deployment Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Application

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Application - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Application 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Application
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Application
  • 6.3 Banks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on Banks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on Banks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on Banks - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on Banks - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Credit unions - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Credit unions - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Credit unions - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Credit unions - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Credit unions - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Mortgage lenders - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 42: Chart on Mortgage lenders - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 43: Data Table on Mortgage lenders - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 44: Chart on Mortgage lenders - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 45: Data Table on Mortgage lenders - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.6 Brokers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 46: Chart on Brokers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 47: Data Table on Brokers - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 48: Chart on Brokers - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 49: Data Table on Brokers - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.7 Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 50: Chart on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 51: Data Table on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 52: Chart on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 53: Data Table on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.8 Market opportunity by Application 
    • Exhibit 54: Market opportunity by Application ($ million)

7 Market Segmentation by Deployment

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 55: Chart on Deployment - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 56: Data Table on Deployment - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Deployment 
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Comparison by Deployment
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Comparison by Deployment
  • 7.3 Cloud-based - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Cloud-based - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Cloud-based - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on Cloud-based - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on Cloud-based - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 On-premise - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on On-premise - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on On-premise - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on On-premise - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on On-premise - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Market opportunity by Deployment 
    • Exhibit 67: Market opportunity by Deployment ($ million)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 68: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on UK - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on UK - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 101: Chart on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 102: Data Table on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 103: Chart on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 104: Data Table on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 105: Chart on Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 106: Data Table on Canada - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 107: Chart on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 108: Data Table on Canada - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 France - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 109: Chart on France - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 110: Data Table on France - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 111: Chart on France - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 112: Data Table on France - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 113: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 114: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 115: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 116: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 117: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 118: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 119: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 Abrigo 
    • Exhibit 120: Abrigo - Overview
    • Exhibit 121: Abrigo - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 122: Abrigo - Key offerings
  • 12.4 Applied Business Software Inc 
    • Exhibit 123: Applied Business Software Inc - Overview
    • Exhibit 124: Applied Business Software Inc - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 125: Applied Business Software Inc - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Black Knight Inc 
    • Exhibit 126: Black Knight Inc - Overview
    • Exhibit 127: Black Knight Inc - Business segments
    • Exhibit 128: Black Knight Inc - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 129: Black Knight Inc - Segment focus
  • 12.6 Constellation Software Inc. 
    • Exhibit 130: Constellation Software Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 131: Constellation Software Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 132: Constellation Software Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.7 Cyrus Technoedge Solutions Pvt. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 133: Cyrus Technoedge Solutions Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 134: Cyrus Technoedge Solutions Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 135: Cyrus Technoedge Solutions Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.8 DownHome Solutions 
    • Exhibit 136: DownHome Solutions - Overview
    • Exhibit 137: DownHome Solutions - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 138: DownHome Solutions - Key offerings
  • 12.9 Fidelity National Information Services Inc.
    • Exhibit 139: Fidelity National Information Services Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 140: Fidelity National Information Services Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 141: Fidelity National Information Services Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 142: Fidelity National Information Services Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 143: Fidelity National Information Services Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.10 Financial Industry Computer Systems Inc
    • Exhibit 144: Financial Industry Computer Systems Inc - Overview
    • Exhibit 145: Financial Industry Computer Systems Inc - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 146: Financial Industry Computer Systems Inc - Key offerings
  • 12.11 Fiserv Inc. 
    • Exhibit 147: Fiserv Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 148: Fiserv Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 149: Fiserv Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 150: Fiserv Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.12 LOAN SERVICING SOFT Inc 
    • Exhibit 151: LOAN SERVICING SOFT Inc - Overview
    • Exhibit 152: LOAN SERVICING SOFT Inc - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 153: LOAN SERVICING SOFT Inc - Key offerings
  • 12.13 Nortridge Software LLC 
    • Exhibit 154: Nortridge Software LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 155: Nortridge Software LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 156: Nortridge Software LLC - Key offerings
  • 12.14 Nucleus Software Exports Ltd 
    • Exhibit 157: Nucleus Software Exports Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 158: Nucleus Software Exports Ltd - Business segments
    • Exhibit 159: Nucleus Software Exports Ltd - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 160: Nucleus Software Exports Ltd - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Oracle Corp. 
    • Exhibit 161: Oracle Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 162: Oracle Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 163: Oracle Corp. - Key news
    • Exhibit 164: Oracle Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 165: Oracle Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.16 PCFS Solutions 
    • Exhibit 166: PCFS Solutions - Overview
    • Exhibit 167: PCFS Solutions - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 168: PCFS Solutions - Key offerings
  • 12.17 Shaw Systems Associates LLC 
    • Exhibit 169: Shaw Systems Associates LLC - Overview
    • Exhibit 170: Shaw Systems Associates LLC - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 171: Shaw Systems Associates LLC - Key offerings

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 172: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 173: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 174: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 175: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 176: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 177: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 178: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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New ways to protect food crops from climate change and other disruptions

“There’s no doubt we can produce enough food for the world’s population – humanity is strategic enough to achieve that. The question is whether…

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“There’s no doubt we can produce enough food for the world’s population – humanity is strategic enough to achieve that. The question is whether – because of war and conflict and corruption and destabilization – we do,” said World Food Programme leader David Beasley in an interview with Time magazine earlier this year.    

Credit: NMBU

“There’s no doubt we can produce enough food for the world’s population – humanity is strategic enough to achieve that. The question is whether – because of war and conflict and corruption and destabilization – we do,” said World Food Programme leader David Beasley in an interview with Time magazine earlier this year.    

Indeed, projections show that we are not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 of Zero Hunger by 2030. As climate and security crises continue to destabilise our food sources, researchers are taking a critical look not just at how we produce food – but at the entire systems behind our food supplies. In this case, the systems behind the seeds that produce our food crops.    

“Whilst adapting crops to climate change and conserving their variation is essential for food security, these measures are meaningless if farmers do not have access to the seeds,” says crop scientist and food system expert Ola Westengen. Westengen leads the team of researchers from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU) who recently reviewed the state of seed systems for small-holder farmers in low/middle income countries. Their findings are now published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).   

What are seed systems?    

Seed systems are the provision, management and distribution of seeds. They cover the entire seed chain, from the conservation of their diversity and variety development, to their production and distribution, and the rules that govern these activities.  In short, they are the structures that make seeds available to farmers so that crops can be sown, harvested and end up on our plates.    

Whilst a well-functioning seed system will ensure seed security for all farmers, the researchers say that, in practice, it is rarely the case that seed systems function as well as they might. Seed systems can be disrupted by conflict and disasters, as well as by problems stemming from social inequality, lack of coordination or inappropriate policies.      

What does this study tell us that we don’t already know?   

“There are recent innovations and investments by governments and donors to improve farmers’ access to diverse crop varieties and quality seeds,” explains Teshome Hunduma, a seed governance researcher and co-author of the study. “For example, there are now more flexible policies and regulations that encourage diversity in the seed systems used by farmers, rather than pushing farmers to switch to commercial seed systems that focus on less diverse commodity crops – which is the norm.” Commodity crops are those grown in large volume and high intensity for the purpose of sale, as opposed to those grown by small-holder farmers for direct processing and consumption.   

“The study highlights emerging initiatives that are helping farmers to secure food supplies, such as participatory plant breeding,” says Teshome. Participatory plant breeding is the development and selection of new crop varieties where the farmers are in control. Farmers, who know the needs of their farms best, work with researchers and others to improve crops and develop plant varieties that are in line with their household needs and culture, and that are resilient to environmental and climate challenges.    

“Farmers prefer and need different types of seeds, based on diverse social, cultural and ecological conditions,” adds ethnobotanist and co-author Sarah Paule Dalle.       

The study discusses various disruptions to farmer’s access to seeds. Social inequality is one such disruption. How so?   

“A seed system that only serves a segment of a farming society contributes to seed insecurity,” replies Teshome. “For example, commercial seed systems deliver high-yielding varieties of quality hybrid seeds. Whilst wealthy farmers can afford such seeds, poor farmers can’t.”    

“Similarly, whilst commercial seed systems that focus on commodity crops may benefit men who might primarily be interested in market value, such systems have little to offer women who want crops that provide household nutrition and meet their cultural preferences.”   

“This means poor farmers and women do not have the same access to seeds that meet their needs. The result is seed, and thus food, insecurity due to social and economic inequality.”     

Political-economic factors have driven the globalization of food systems over the last decades, which also includes seed systems. “Seeds have become big business”, say the researchers. According to studies quoted in the article, the four largest multinational companies in seed trade today control about 60% of the ~50 billion USD global commercial seed market. The large private actors have the power not only to shape markets, but also to influence science and innovation agendas and policy frameworks.     

This can be problematic, say the researchers, when private sector research and development typically focuses on the most profitable crops, such as maize and soy. Crops grown and consumed by subsistence farmers are thus largely neglected, and the potential of crop diversity – the foundation of agriculture – remains largely untapped. Technology that could help develop more robust varieties remains hypothetical.   

How does the ownership of crop diversity threaten food supplies and what can be done?      

The term crop diversity refers both to different crops and different varieties of a crop. According to the Global Crop Diversity Trust (one of the world’s primary international organizations on crop diversity conservation), securing and making available the world’s crop diversity is essential for future food and nutrition security.      

“Plant breeders and scientists use crop diversity to develop new, more resilient and productive varieties that consumers want to eat, that are nutritious and tasty, and that are adapted to local preferences, environments and challenges,” explains Benjamin Kilian, a plant genetics expert at the Global Crop Diversity Trust. The Crop Trust, together with the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, implements the major project from which this study emerged: Biodiversity for Opportunities, Livelihoods and Development (BOLD). Coordinated by Kilian, the project supports the conservation and use of crop diversity to strengthen food and nutrition security on a global scale. It builds on the Crop Wild Relatives project and is funded by the Norwegian government.   

“In the BOLD project, researchers work with genebanks, plant breeders and others in the seed value chain to co-develop seed systems that are both resilient to climate stresses and inclusive of small-holder farmers on the frontline of adaptation,” adds Westengen.     

Will access to seeds in the vulnerable areas that you are studying be improved in time to make a difference?   

“We hope so, if we make the right moves to include small-holder farmers in seed system development,” says Dalle. “A well-functioning seed system should also be resilient. That is, it should withstand shocks such as drought or pandemics and breakdowns or disruptions such as war and conflict.”    

“To do this, the system should promote a diversity of seeds, both local varieties and those improved to better adapt to stresses. It should also involve diverse groups of people such as farmer cooperatives/groups, and both public and private companies to increase the choice of seeds and seed sources. During lockdowns in the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, farmers’ own seed systems enabled access to seeds in developing countries when the activities of private companies and agro-dealers were restricted,” explains Dalle.   

Westengen summarizes: “Our study highlights links between the crucial work of the Global Crop Diversity Trust and the farmers on the frontline of adapting our food systems to climate change. It is an argument for co-designing seed system development in full cooperation with farmers and other actors in the seed system. This way, efforts can meet the needs of various groups of farmers in different agroecological contexts. There is no one-size-fits-all; if there is one natural law in biology, it is that diversity is key to future evolution. That also goes for seed systems – and food system development.”   

Navigating towards resilient and inclusive seed systems by Ola T. Westengen, Sarah Paule Dalle and Teshome Hunduma Mulesa was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) this week. PNAS is widely considered one of the most prestigious and highly cited multidisciplinary research journals.   


About the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU)  
NMBU’s research and education enables people all over the world to tackle the big, global challenges regarding the environment, sustainable development, how to improve human and animal health, renewable energy sources, food production, and land- and resource management. 

 About the Crop Trust 
The Crop Trust is an international organization working to conserve crop diversity and thus protect global food and nutrition security. At the core of Crop Trust is an endowment fund dedicated to providing guaranteed long-term financial support to key genebanks worldwide. The Crop Trust supports the Svalbard Global Seed Vault and coordinates large-scale projects worldwide to secure crop diversity and make it available for use. The Crop Trust is recognized as an essential element of the funding strategy of the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture.  

About the BOLD Project 
BOLD (Biodiversity for Opportunities, Livelihoods, and Development) is a major 10-year project to strengthen food and nutrition security worldwide by supporting the conservation and use of crop diversity. The project works with national genebanks, pre-breeding and seed system partners globally. Funded by the government of Norway, BOLD is led by the Crop Trust in partnership with the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and the International Plant Treaty. 


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A Federal Reserve Pivot is not Bullish

An old saying cautions one to be careful of what one wishes for. Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot may want to rethink their logic…

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An old saying cautions one to be careful of what one wishes for. Stock investors wishing for the Federal Reserve to pivot may want to rethink their logic and review the charts.

The second largest U.S. bank failure and the deeply discounted emergency sale of Credit Suisse have investors betting the Federal Reserve will pivot. They don’t seem to care that inflation is running hot and sticky, and the Fed remains determined to keep rates “higher for longer” despite the evolving crisis.

Like Pavlov’s dogs, investors buy when they hear the pivot bell ringing. Their conditioning may prove harmful if the past proves prescient.

The Bearish History of Rate Cuts

Since 1970, there have been nine instances in which the Fed significantly cut the Fed Funds rate. The average maximum drawdown from the start of each rate reduction period to the market trough was 27.25%.

The three most recent episodes saw larger-than-average drawdowns. Of the six other experiences, only one, 1974-1977, saw a drawdown worse than the average.  

So why are the most recent drawdowns worse than those before 1990? Before 1990, the Fed was more active. As such, they didn’t allow rates to get too far above or below the economy’s natural rate. Indeed, high inflation during the 1970s and early 1980s forced Fed vigilance. Regardless of the reason, higher interest rates helped keep speculative bubbles in check.

During the last 20 years, the Fed has presided over a low-interest rate environment. The graph below shows that real yields, yields less inflation expectations, have been trending lower for 40 years. From the pandemic until the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, the 10-year real yield was often negative.

real yields wicksell

Speculation often blossoms when interest rates are predictably low. As we are learning, such speculative behavior emanating from Fed policy in 2020 and 2021 led to conservative bankers and aggressive hedge funds taking outsized risks. While not coming to their side, what was their alternative? Accepting a negative real return is not good for profits.

We take a quick detour to appreciate how the level of interest rates drives speculation.

Wicksell’s Elegant Model

A few years ago, we shared the logic of famed Swedish economist Knut Wicksell. The nineteenth-century economist’s model states two interest rates help assess economic activity. Per Wicksell’s Elegant Model:

First, there is the “natural rate,” which reflects the structural growth rate of the economy (which is also reflective of the growth rate of corporate earnings). The natural rate is the combined growth of the working-age population and productivity growth. Second, Wicksell holds that there is the “market rate” or the cost of money in the economy as determined by supply and demand.

Wicksell viewed the divergences between the natural and market rates as the mechanism by which the economic cycle is determined. If a divergence between the natural and market rates is abnormally sustained, it causes a severe misallocation of capital.

The bottom line:

Per Wicksell, optimal policy should aim at keeping the natural and market rate as closely aligned as possible to prevent misallocation. But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow-driven investments with riskier prospects languish.

The second half of 2020 and 2021 provide evidence of Wicksell’s theory. Despite brisk economic activity and rising inflation, the Fed kept interest rates at zero and added more to its balance sheet (QE) than during the Financial Crisis. The speculation resulting from keeping rates well below the natural rate was palpable.

What Percentage Drawdown Should We Expect This Time?

Since the market experienced a decent drawdown during the rate hike cycle starting in March 2022, might a good chunk of the rate drawdown associated with a rate cut have already occurred?

The graph below shows the maximum drawdown from the beginning of rate hiking cycles. The average drawdown during rate hiking cycles is 11.50%. The S&P 500 experienced a nearly 25% drawdown during the current cycle.

rate hikes and drawdowns

There are two other considerations in formulating expectations for what the next Federal Reserve pivot has in store for stocks.

First, the graph below shows the maximum drawdowns during rate-cutting periods and the one-year returns following the final rate cut. From May 2020 to May 2021, the one-year period following the last rate cut, the S&P 500 rose over 50%. Such is three times the 16% average of the prior eight episodes. Therefore, it’s not surprising the maximum drawdown during the current rate hike cycle was larger than average.

rate cuts and drawdowns

Second, valuations help explain why recent drawdowns during Federal Reserve pivots are worse than those before the dot-com bubble crash. The graph below shows the last three rate cuts started when CAPE10 valuations were above the historical average. The prior instances all occurred at below-average valuations.

cape 10 valuations

The current CAPE valuation is not as extended as in late 2021 but is about 50% above average. While the market has already corrected some, the valuation may still return to average or below it, as it did in 2003 and 2009.

It’s tough to draw conclusions about the 2020 drawdown. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policies played a prominent role in boosting animal spirits and elevating stocks. Given inflation and political discord, we don’t think Fed members or politicians will be likely to gun the fiscal and monetary engines in the event of a more significant market decline.

Summary

The Federal Reserve is outspoken about its desire to get inflation to its 2% target. If they were to pivot by as much and as soon as the market predicts, something has broken. Currently, it would take a severe negative turn to the banking crisis or a rapidly deteriorating economy to justify a pivot, the likes of which markets imply. Mind you, something breaking, be it a crisis or recession, does not bode well for corporate earnings and stock prices.

There is one more point worth considering regarding a Federal Reserve pivot. If the Fed cuts Fed Funds, the yield curve will likely un-invert and return to a normal positive slope. Historically yield curve inversions, as we have, are only recession warnings. The un-inversion of yield curves has traditionally signaled that a recession is imminent. 

The graph below shows two well-followed Treasury yield curves. The steepening of both curves, shown in all four cases and other instances before 1990, accompanied a recession.

Over the past two weeks, the two-year- ten-year UST yield curve has steepened by 60 bps!

yield curves rate cuts and recessions

The post A Federal Reserve Pivot is not Bullish appeared first on RIA.

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COVID-19 impacted smoking assessment rates in community health centers, necessitating a closer examination on how procedures can be adapted

COVID-19 Impacted  Smoking Assessment Rates in Community Health Centers, Necessitating a Closer Examination on How Procedures Can be Adapted Credit: Annals…

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COVID-19 Impacted  Smoking Assessment Rates in Community Health Centers, Necessitating a Closer Examination on How Procedures Can be Adapted

Credit: Annals of Family Medicine

COVID-19 Impacted  Smoking Assessment Rates in Community Health Centers, Necessitating a Closer Examination on How Procedures Can be Adapted

Researchers from Oregon Health & Science University and OCHIN,  a large nonprofit network of community health centers, extracted electronic health record data from 217 primary care clinics between January 2019 through the end of July 2021, which included telehealth and in-person visits for 759,138 adult patients aged 18 and older years to determine how monthly rates of tobacco assessment had been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The team calculated the rates per 1,000 patients. The team found that between March and May 2020, tobacco assessment monthly rates declined from 155.7 per 1,000 patients down to 77.7 per 1,000 patients, a 50% decline. There was a subsequent increase in tobacco assessment between June 2020 and May 2021. However, assessments remained 33.5% lower than pre-pandemic levels. These findings are significant given the fact that tobacco use can increase the severity of COVID-19 symptoms.

What is Known on This Topic: While there is plentiful evidence on the impact that COVID-19 has had on primary health care seeking and delivery, little is known about how the pandemic affected tobacco use assessments and cessation programs.

What This Study Adds: The decline in the rate of tobacco assessments during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic was substantial and rates have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Given that tobacco use can exacerbate COVID-19 symptoms, researchers recommend careful examination of procedural changes to adapt care delivery to support community health centers, specifically tobacco cessation efforts.

.Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Assessing Tobacco Status in Community Health Centers

Susan A. Flocke, PhD, et al,
Department of Family Medicine, Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, Oregon
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