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Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Earnings Galore, Central Banks And UK Inflation

Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Earnings Galore, Central Banks And UK Inflation

While the US is closed for MLK Day on Monday, the week kicked off with China’s monthly data dump but the PBOC upstaged this by surprisingly cutting rates.

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Key Events This Holiday-Shortened Week: Earnings Galore, Central Banks And UK Inflation

While the US is closed for MLK Day on Monday, the week kicked off with China's monthly data dump but the PBOC upstaged this by surprisingly cutting rates on its medium term loans ahead of the GDP release. In the first move since April 2020 - which we said would happen one month ago - the PBOC lowered its one-year medium term lending facility (MLF) rate by 10bps to 2.85% from 2.95% and slashed the seven-day repurchase rate to 2.1% from 2.2%.

Additionally, as DB's Jim Reid writes, the central bank injected 700 bn yuan ($110 bn) worth of liquidity via the MLF and added 100 billion yuan of liquidity via reverse repos. Separately, data showed Q4 GDP expanded +4.0% y/y beating Bloomberg forecast of 3.3%. However, the rise was more muted in the last three months (+4.9%) as a real estate downturn combined with strict Covid-19 curbs hit activity.

Other economic data showed that industrial production in China jumped by +4.3% in December from a year ago surpassing market expectations of a +3.7% growth. In addition to this, Fixed asset investment for 2021 advanced by +4.9%, topping market expectations for +4.8% rise. However, retail sales missed expectations (+3.8%) with only a +1.7% gain in December from a year earlier, its slowest increase since August 2020.

In terms of the rest of the week, earnings season will begin to gather some momentum, with 39 S&P 500 companies reporting. The highlights are Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon tomorrow, before we hear from UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble, ASML, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp and United Airlines on Wednesday. Finally on Thursday, there’s reports from Netflix, Union Pacific and American Airlines Group.

Elsewhere the Bank of Japan will be making its latest monetary policy decision on Tuesday (Monday east coast time) which is unlikely to see much change now but reputable press reports are suggesting they are ready to become more hawkish in the coming months with a credible Reuters story late last week suggested they are prepared to raise rates before inflation reaches 2% (good luck with that). This is still someway off but if the BoJ can become more hawkish then that says something about the global direction of travel for monetary policy.

Otherwise on the data front, releases include US housing data, leading indicators and Empire Manufacturing. There is a monetary policy meeting in Japan. CPI data in the UK, the Euro area and Canada. That’ll also be the last CPI reading ahead of the BoE’s next policy decision on February 3, where many economist are expecting a further 25 basis point hike. In Emerging Markets, there are monetary policy meetings in Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey and Ukraine. GDP and IP data in China.

Here is a day by day breakdown of key events this week courtesy of Deutsche Bank:

Monday January 17

  • Data: China Q4 GDP, December retail sales, industrial production, Japan November tertiary industry index
  • Other: US markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Tuesday January 18

  • Data: UK November unemployment, Germany January ZEW survey, US January Empire State manufacturing survey, NAHB housing market index
  • Central Banks: Bank of Japan monetary policy decision, ECB’s Villeroy speaks
  • Earnings: Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon

Wednesday January 19

  • Data: UK December CPI, US December building permits, housing starts, Canada December CPI
  • Central Banks: BoE Governor Bailey and Deputy Governor Cunliffe speak
  • Earnings: UnitedHealth Group, Bank of America, Procter & Gamble, ASML, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, US Bancorp, United Airlines

Thursday January 20

  • Data: Germany December PPI, Euro Area final December CPI, US weekly initial jobless claims, January Philadelphia Fed business outlook, December existing home sales, Japan December nationwide CPI (23:30 UK time)
  • Central Banks: Monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank of Turkey and Bank Indonesia, ECB publishes minutes from December meeting, BoJ publishes minutes from December meeting (23:50 UK time)
  • Earnings: Netflix, Union Pacific, American Airlines Group

Friday January 21

  • Data: UK January GfK consumer confidence, December retail sales, Euro Area advance January consumer confidence, US December Conference Board leading index
  • Central Banks: BoE’s Mann speaks

Finally, looking at just the US, Goldman notes that key economic data release this week is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are no major speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period.

Monday, January 17

  • Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also close.

Tuesday, January 18

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, January (consensus +25.0, last +31.9)
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, January (consensus 84, last 84)

Wednesday, January 19

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, December (GS +0.5%, consensus -1.7%, last +11.8%): Building permits, December (consensus -1.0%, last +3.9%): We estimate housing starts increased by 0.5% in December, reflecting warmer than usual December weather and increased permits in November.

Thursday, January 20

  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, January (GS 14.4, consensus 19.8, last 15.4): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined by 1.0 to 14.4 in January, reflecting a drag from Omicron and a potential further pullback in auto production.
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 15 (GS 240k, consensus 220k, last 230k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 8 (consensus 1,521k, last 1,559k); We estimate initial jobless claims increased to 240k in the week ended January 15.
  • 10:00 AM Existing home sales, December (GS flat, consensus -0.8%, last +1.9%): We estimate that existing home sales were flat in December, following a 1.9% increase in November.

Friday, January 21

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Source: Deutsche Bank, BofA, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/17/2022 - 12:00

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Ontario election gives voters the chance to choose people over profits in long-term care

Ontario voters can bring about change by prioritizing people over profits and casting our ballots for those committed to transforming long-term care into…

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Flowers sit on a bench in front of a for-profit long-term care home in Pickering, Ont., where dozen of seniors died of COVID-19, in April 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, there’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity to correct how public funds will be allocated for long-term care in Ontario. The choice is between more profits for shareholders or reinvestment in care for seniors and improved working conditions for employees.

Ownership in Ontario’s publicly funded long-term care is currently split between two types of providers.

First, there are for-profit facilities, owned largely by real estate companies that hold and/or manage licences to provide care. My research has found that currently, 60.1 per cent of the beds are owned or managed by for-profits. This group is a mixture of public corporate chains, real estate investment trusts and private equity firms. Six in 10 people who live in long-term care in this province do so under a profit-taking model.

The second group are care homes that happen to own real estate and reinvest surplus back into the home. Nearly four of 10 bed licences (39.9 per cent) are owned by this group. The latter are typically called not-for-profit, although they may also be publicly owned.

Even before the pandemic, for-profit facilities were associated with significantly higher rates of mortality and hospital admission, suggesting there’s significantly worse quality of care overall in for-profit than in non-profit and public homes.

In addition, the devastation in long-term care during the height of the pandemic’s first and second waves happened mostly in for-profits, where a higher proportion of residents died. There was a 25 per cent higher risk of death from COVID-19 in for-profit facilities.

A row of white crosses on a green lawn. A small Canadian flag is attached to one of the crosses.
Crosses are displayed in memory of elderly people who died from COVID-19 at a for-profit long-term care facility in Mississauga, Ont., in November 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

Renegotiating licences

The Ontario government is currently approving licences with operators for up to 30 years. About one-third of the existing bed licences (26,531 beds) in 257 long-term care homes will expire by June 30, 2025. These licenses are in various stages of being renegotiated for the next 30 years.

The current government also announced there will be 30,000 new beds and 28,000 upgraded beds in place by 2028, also at various stages of approval. With the renewals, renovations and construction, what happens to long-term care licences in the next calendar year will shape the course of long-term care for the next 30 years.

A vote in this election therefore represents a choice between more for-profits or a move towards non-profit long-term care.


Read more: Canadians want home care, not long-term care facilities, after COVID-19


Long-term care licences can be very lucrative. Each new bed built is eligible for a construction funding subsidy, known as a CFS, calculated per day. The CFS ranges from $20.53 to $23.78 per day depending on where the home is located; large urban settings have higher subsidies. This is in addition to the funding an operator receives from government to provide care and food.

If a home has 160 beds, an additional 75 cents per bed per day is added to the subsidy. In the most expensive urban market with 160 beds (five units of 32 people), tax dollars will fund that organization $3,924.80 per day in capital costs to a maximum of $51,376 per bed — or a subsidy for the building of $8,220,160.

These subsidies are meant to cover between 10 to 17 per cent of capital costs. Rural beds are capped at a maximum subsidy of $29,246 per bed annually, while large urban centres cap at $51,376 per bed.

There are no upper limits on bed numbers, so it’s difficult to calculate the maximum subsidy. There are few homes in the province exceeding 160 beds, but that could change. The public doesn’t have a stake in the ownership of a home due to the subsidies.

Accommodation fees

Facilities also collect and retain rental accommodation fees from residents. For semi-private, shared nursing home rooms, a resident will pay $2,280.61 monthly at current rates, and for a private room, residents are charged up to $2,701.61 per month. Those living in for-profit retirement homes, many of whom are on waiting lists for a long-term care bed, are not included in this model.

If 60 per cent of the rooms are private and not shared, and assuming current accommodation rates, my calculations show the home will collect and retain $116,719,810 in accommodation fees over the 30-year licence, or nearly $4 million per year.

These funds collected for accommodation rental are completely separate from the funds publicly paid to support care, currently set at $187.73 per day for a home operating at 100 per cent based on the complexity of the needs of its residents.

If the current government or any successive government replicates past decisions, more than 65,000 Ontarians a year will live in a for-profit facility — many run by corporations focused on their real estate investments — in the next decade. If we follow a different path, these subsidies could fund operators that are primarily care organizations and where real estate holdings support the care, not the other way around.

A man pushes his walker as he strolls outside a long-term care home.
A man takes a walk outside the not-for-profit Seven Oaks Long-Term Care Home in Toronto in June 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

No one should assume they or their loved ones won’t need long-term care. All modern and caring societies have long-term care. The difference is that in countries like Norway, the focus is on high-quality, publicly delivered care, not on favouring for-profit real estate models.

Certainly not everyone will need long-term care. Not everyone needs open-heart surgery. But we do need high-quality public health care so that no one has to contemplate losing their life savings to survive. Those who need long-term care are among society’s most vulnerable members, and they deserve the very best quality of care and for every dollar to be invested in ensuring their care is top-notch.

No further study of this issue is required. Those living in for-profit facilities fare worse than those in non-profits and public homes.

In Ontario, we can prioritize people over profits by casting our ballots for those committed to transforming long-term care into a non-profit model focused on high-quality care. Know which party supports non-profit, long-term care and vote accordingly.

Tamara Daly receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council

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Revive Therapeutics: Positive Comments From The FDA Regarding Primary Endpoint Change

The outlook for Revive Therapeutics Ltd. (CNSX: RVV, OTCMKTS: RVVTF) Phase 3 clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of Bucillamine to treat…

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The outlook for Revive Therapeutics Ltd. (CNSX: RVV, OTCMKTS: RVVTF) Phase 3 clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of Bucillamine to treat COVID-19 got a little brighter on Thursday. The U.S Food and Drug Administration appears to be amenable to the company’s submitted request to change the trial’s primary endpoints to a ‘symptoms’ focus, as announced on May 16. Although the FDA did not officially grant primary endpoint change yet, Thursday’s news was enough to catalyze forward-looking investors into action, sending Revive shares higher in the U.S. by +21.06% on the best volume in six weeks.

Revive Therapeutics reported that pursuant to its submitted request to change the trial’s primary endpoints to a ‘symptoms’ focus, it has received “positive comments” from the FDA in regards to its request to amend new primary efficacy endpoints for the current trial. This includes the rate of sustained clinical resolution of symptoms of COVID-19, which addresses the shift in clinical outcome. The positive comments following Revive’s May 16 submission are a constructive sign that the FDA is an ally in the endpoint change process.

Furthermore—and perhaps unexpectedly—the FDA agreed that Revive Therapeutics may unblind the pre-dose-selection data for the first 210 patients of the study to further support the new primary endpoint. In essence, the FDA is giving Revive an opportunity to look directly at a portion of the data to make sure they want to proceed with the proposed endpoint change. Up to this point, the entire dataset of the 715 patients already tabulated in the trial have been blinded to the company.

Revive will submit a Data Access Plan to the FDA in early June 2022 with the aim to unblind the pre-dose selection data and submit the amended study protocol with the new primary efficacy endpoints to the FDA.

Under FDA Guidance for Clinical Trial Sponsors, knowledge of unblinded interim comparisons from a clinical trial is generally not necessary for those conducting or sponsoring it. Further, such knowledge can bias the outcome of the study by inappropriately influencing its continuing conduct or the plan of analyses. Unblinded interim data and results of comparative interim analyses, therefore, should generally not be accessible by anyone other than Data Monitoring Committee (DMC)—aka Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) in the current trial—or the statisticians performing these analyses and presenting them to the DMC.

So for Revive Therapeutics to be allowed to peek under the hood before proceeding with symptoms endpoint change may be inferred as a goodwill gesture by the FDA.

Furthermore, Revive Therapeutics confirmed that the DSMB is scheduled to meet thereafter to evaluate the interim clinical and safety data and may make a recommendation on the study. This could involve the recommendation to continue or halt the study due to positive efficacy based on the resolution of symptoms of COVID-19—assuming the primary endpoint change to symptoms is approved. The DSMB could also recommend that the FDA consider Bucillamine for potential Emergency Use Authorization for the treatment of COVID-19 symptoms, should the data support such a recommendation.

The DSMB has previously met on three separate occasions and supported the continuation of the study each time. To date, no serious adverse events or safety concerns have been reported.

TDR will have additional coverage as events warrant.

The post Revive Therapeutics: Positive Comments From The FDA Regarding Primary Endpoint Change appeared first on The Dales Report.

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Government

Sheila Ochugboju named Executive Director of Alliance for Science

Boyce Thompson Institute (BTI) is pleased to welcome Sheila Ochugboju as the new Executive Director of the Alliance for Science (AfS), a global communications…

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Boyce Thompson Institute (BTI) is pleased to welcome Sheila Ochugboju as the new Executive Director of the Alliance for Science (AfS), a global communications initiative dedicated to promoting access to scientific innovation as a means of enhancing food security, improving environmental sustainability, and raising the quality of life globally. Her start date is June 1.

Credit: Image provided/Sheila Ochugboju

Boyce Thompson Institute (BTI) is pleased to welcome Sheila Ochugboju as the new Executive Director of the Alliance for Science (AfS), a global communications initiative dedicated to promoting access to scientific innovation as a means of enhancing food security, improving environmental sustainability, and raising the quality of life globally. Her start date is June 1.

“We are delighted that Dr. Ochugboju will soon be joining us,” said BTI President David Stern. “The Alliance plays a vital role in connecting a range of stakeholders with up-to-date and vital information about how scientific advances can contribute to the future of the planet’s health, an effort that aligns perfectly with BTI’s mission to advance and communicate scientific discovery in plant biology to improve agriculture, protect the environment, and enhance human health.”

“We are fortunate to have someone with Sheila’s experience, connections and vision in this role,” Stern added.

Ochugboju is a leader in science communication and has been a global advocate for science technology and innovation for more than 20 years. She was most recently the Head of Strategic Communications at the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), supporting vaccine delivery communication across Africa and advocating for vaccine equity.

She is also a founding member of the Network of African Women Environmentalists (NAWE), leading in the development of flagship initiatives and products such as the Earth Science Cafes, The Youth Earth Guardians and Landscape Mentors network and the Earth Reflections Podcast, which was rated amongst the leading environment podcasts in Africa in 2020.

“I am excited to join the Boyce Thompson Institute, because together with the Alliance for Science we can offer new lenses, tools, and partnerships to transform how the world understands the role of science in addressing global challenges,” said Ochugboju. “The COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and now food security challenges are teaching everyone that good science communication can literally save lives and livelihoods.”

Founded in 2014, AfS is a global communications initiative that seeks to counter misinformation about agricultural biotechnology, climate change, nuclear power, vaccines, COVID-19 and other contemporary science issues.

To support its work, the Alliance relies on a global network of about 14,000 science allies who engage in their local communities to advance science-based policies. AfS has trained more than 900 science champions, including scientists, farmers, journalists, healthcare professionals and students, in 48 countries to communicate effectively about biotechnology.

“After a comprehensive executive search, we are thrilled to have found someone like Dr. Ochugboju, who has the knowledge and ability to broaden the horizon of the Alliance for Science and bring resources to counter misinformation across a more substantial expanse of scientific endeavor, especially including climate change,” said Ronnie Coffman, Professor of Global Development at Cornell University and Interim Director of AfS.  

Ochugboju graduated with a degree in Medical Biochemistry and then received her Ph.D. in Plant Biochemistry from Royal Holloway, University of London in 1996. She was awarded the Daphne Jackson Trust Post-Doctoral Research Fellowship, based at the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, St. Hilda’s College, University of Oxford in 1998.

She has lived and worked in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. In 2016, she received a WINGS WorldQuest Women of Discovery Award for developing and leading pioneering African science, technology and innovation projects. Ochugboju was also appointed as a Global Roving Ambassador for the county government of Kisumu, Kenya, in charge of the portfolio for Transformative Science and Urban Resilience.

About Boyce Thompson Institute:

Opened in 1924, Boyce Thompson Institute is a premier life sciences research institution located in Ithaca, New York. BTI scientists conduct investigations into fundamental plant and life sciences research with the goals of increasing food security, improving environmental sustainability in agriculture, and making basic discoveries that will enhance human health. Throughout this work, BTI is committed to inspiring and educating students and to providing advanced training for the next generation of scientists. BTI is an independent nonprofit research institute that is also affiliated with Cornell University. For more information, please visit BTIscience.org.

 

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