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Initial jobless claimZzzzzzzzzz . . . .

 – by New Deal democratFor the last 8 months, initial and continuing claims have been remarkably consistent. Initial claims have varied between 194,000…

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 - by New Deal democrat


For the last 8 months, initial and continuing claims have been remarkably consistent. Initial claims have varied between 194,000 and 228,000, and continuing claims have with the exception of three weeks right at the new year varied between 1.787 million and 1.829 million.


That rangebound trend continued this week as initial claims were unchanged at 212,000, and the four week average was also unchanged at 214,500. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims rose 2,000 t0 1.812 million:



Indeed, with the exception of last spring, initial claims have been essentially rangebound for the entire last 2 years!

For forecasting purposes, the YoY% change is more important. There, initial claims are down -5.5%, the four week average down -3.8%, and continuing claims are higher by 4.3% — still the lowest YoY reading for continuing claims in the past 13 months:



Needless to say, this suggests continued economic expansion in the next few months.

A reader over at Seeking Alpha several weeks ago asked what these looked like compared with population, since that is a more true measure of the tightness of the jobs market. Here’s the post-pandemic look:



The 4 week average of initial claims is 0.13% of the entire civilian labor force, while continuing claims are 1.1%.

Let’s compare that with the entire pre-pandemic record:



The 4 week average of initial claims is tied with the lowest ever pre-pandemic reading it had in 2019, while continuing claims are lower than the entire 50+ year pre-pandemic period except for 2017-19.

This in short remains a very tight labor market, where finding a new job is easier than at almost any time ever before the pandemic.

Finally, let’s update the Sahm rule implications with the first two weeks of April under our belt. Remember that both initial and continuing claims lead the unemployment rate, the former by more than the latter:



As per form, the unemployment rate followed jobless claims higher last year. Initial claims are now lower again, and continuing cliams remain flat. This suggests no further upward pressure on the unemployment rate in the months ahead, and likely some downward pressure towards 3.7% or 3.6%. In short, the Sahm rule is not going to be triggered.

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In the Good Old Days, One Fourth of Income Went to Food

I am not ordinarily a celebrant for the state of the economy, but the media have been so over the top in pushing the economic doom story during the Biden…

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April 18, 2024

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I am not ordinarily a celebrant for the state of the economy, but the media have been so over the top in pushing the economic doom story during the Biden presidency, that I feel the need to put some reality into the picture.

One of the central lines among the doomsayers is that we are spending a larger share of income on housing and that for many it has become altogether unaffordable. I will agree that housing is a serious problem. In fact, I recently authored a piece in a new collection on the issue, which I would encourage everyone to read. We need to build more housing and especially more affordable housing.   

But acknowledging that housing is a serious problem is not the same as saying it is an unprecedented crisis, and many of the things that have been asserted in the media are simpler not true. For example, it is not true that homeownership is no longer part of the American dream for young people. In fact, homeownership rates for young people are above their pre-pandemic level.

It’s true that the run-up in mortgage interest rates since the Fed began hiking in March of 2022, coupled with rising house prices, has made the cost of a buying a home prohibitive for many new buyers, but few expect rates to stay this high for long.  

Mortgage rates are highly cyclical, they go up when the Fed raises rates in an effort to slow the economy. The current rates of near 7.0 percent are high compared to the 3.0 percent rates we saw during the pandemic, but they are not high by historic standards. In 1981, they peaked at over 18.0 percent.

I don’t recall reporters at the time writing pieces as though 18.0 percent mortgage rates would persist for the indefinite future. I am not sure why they feel the need to write that way about the current 7.0 percent rates.

Another aspect to the manufactured housing crisis story is that we are spending higher shares of our income on housing, with a record number of people spending more than one-third of their income on housing. This share that has been dubbed as a crisis point by some.

It is certainly true that we are spending a much larger share of our income on housing than in prior decades, but a big part of that story is that we are spending a much smaller share on other things. The graph below shows the share of disposable income going to food, clothes, and household furnishings since the late 1940s.

 

Source: National Income and Product Accounts, Table 2.3.5 and author’s calculations.

As can be seen, there has been a sharp reduction in the shares of all three. This is especially striking with food. In 1947 we spent 23.0 percent of our income on store-bought food. This had fallen to just 7.1 percent last year. The share of income going to buy clothes fell from 10.3 percent to 2.6 percent. The share for buying household furnishings dropped from 5.5 percent to 2.5 percent.

These declines freed up income to go to other areas, and one area that extra income went to was housing. The houses we live in today are on average much larger than the ones we lived in 75 years ago. They are also far more likely to have air conditioning and relatively clean sources of heat. (Coal furnaces were still common in the late 1940s.) They are much better protected against fires and less likely to have harmful chemicals like asbestos and lead.

As a result of reduced spending in other areas, and the higher quality of the housing we live in today, the share of our income going to housing now exceeds 34.0 percent, on average. (This figure includes “owner equivalent rent,” the money that a homeowner would be paying to rent the home they live in.)

Given the 34.0 percent figure is an average, it is hard to see the one-third level as a crisis. Rather, we probably need to recalculate what share of income going to housing costs presents an unmanageable burden.

None of this should be taken to mean that we don’t have to do things to make housing more affordable. We need to ease up restrictions that block both new construction and conversion of empty office space to residential. And we should ensure that a substantial share of these new units are affordable.

We can also take short-term steps to improve affordability, like limiting vacation rentals and having moderate rent control. A vacant property tax is also a good way to get more units on the market. It will also be good when Jerome Powell and the Fed get over their inflation fears and start to ease up on interest rates.

We have a serious shortage of housing in the country due to a sharp plunge in construction in the decade following the collapse of the housing bubble. We were gradually getting back to more normal levels of construction when the pandemic broke out. If we can sustain higher levels of construction for several years and convert many of the offices that are currently vacant, due to the explosion in people working from home, we can lower housing costs.

But it is helpful to look at the issue with clear eyes. The biggest reason housing has grown as a share of our income is that we are spending so much less on other necessities. That is a good thing.

The post In the Good Old Days, One Fourth of Income Went to Food appeared first on Center for Economic and Policy Research.

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The impact of ketogenic diets on cognitive behavior, motor function, and blood lipids

“[…] intermittent ketogenic diet (IKD) or ketogenic diet (KD) intervention did not improve measures of cognitive or motor behavior in TgF344-AD rats;…

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April 17, 2024

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“[…] intermittent ketogenic diet (IKD) or ketogenic diet (KD) intervention did not improve measures of cognitive or motor behavior in TgF344-AD rats; however, both IKD and KD positively impacted circulating lipids.”

Credit: 2024 Rutkowsky et al.

“[…] intermittent ketogenic diet (IKD) or ketogenic diet (KD) intervention did not improve measures of cognitive or motor behavior in TgF344-AD rats; however, both IKD and KD positively impacted circulating lipids.”

BUFFALO, NY- April 17, 2024 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 7, entitled, “The impact of continuous and intermittent ketogenic diets on cognitive behavior, motor function, and blood lipids in TgF344-AD rats.”

Studies suggest that ketogenic diets (KD) may improve memory in mouse models of aging and Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In this new study, researchers Jennifer M. Rutkowsky, Zabrisky Roland, Anthony Valenzuela, An B. Nguyen, Heui Hye Park, Natalie Six, Ilknur Dursun, Kyoungmi Kim, Pamela J. Lein, and Jon J. Ramsey from the University of California Davis and Istinye University determined whether a continuous or intermittent KD (IKD) enhanced cognitive behavior in the TgF344-AD rat model of AD. 

“[…] it remains to be determined whether long-term consumption of a ketogenic diet can mitigate declines in cognitive or motor behavior in a rat model of AD. Therefore, the current study aimed to determine whether a KD improves cognitive or motor behavior in the TgF344-AD rat.”

At 6 months-old, TgF344-AD and wild-type (WT) littermates were placed on a control (CD), KD, or IKD (morning CD and afternoon KD) provided as two meals per day for 2 or 6 months. Cognitive and motor behavior and circulating β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), AD biomarkers and blood lipids were assessed. Animals on a KD diet had elevated circulating BHB, with IKD levels intermediate to CD and KD. 

TgF344-AD rats displayed impaired spatial learning memory in the Barnes maze at 8 and 12 months of age and impaired motor coordination at 12 months of age. Neither KD nor IKD improved performance compared to CD. At 12 months of age, TgF344-AD animals had elevated blood lipids. IKD reduced lipids to WT levels with KD further reducing cholesterol below WT levels. 

“[…] the IKD or KD did not improve motor coordination or spatial learning memory compared to the control diet. However, KD, and to a lesser extent IKD, mitigated elevations in plasma lipids in the TgF344-AD rats. Furthermore, the KD diet decreased plasma levels of total Tau in females.”
 

Read the full paper: DOI: https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205741 

Corresponding Author: Jennifer M. Rutkowsky

Corresponding Email: jrutkowsky@ucdavis.edu 

Keywords: ketogenic diet, Alzheimer’s disease, cognitive behavior, motor function, lipids

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About Aging:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

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Journal

Aging-US

DOI

10.18632/aging.205741

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

The impact of continuous and intermittent ketogenic diets on cognitive behavior, motor function, and blood lipids in TgF344-AD rats

Article Publication Date

12-Apr-2024

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National Comprehensive Cancer Network awards Champions for Excellence and Outstanding Contributions in Cancer Care

PLYMOUTH MEETING, PA [April 17, 2024] — The National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN®)—an alliance of leading cancer centers—is announcing…

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April 17, 2024

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PLYMOUTH MEETING, PA [April 17, 2024] — The National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN®)—an alliance of leading cancer centers—is announcing 2024 award recipients that include individuals and groups who have made significant and noteworthy impacts on improving cancer care and supporting NCCN’s mission to help all people with cancer to live better lives.

Credit: NCCN

PLYMOUTH MEETING, PA [April 17, 2024] — The National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN®)—an alliance of leading cancer centers—is announcing 2024 award recipients that include individuals and groups who have made significant and noteworthy impacts on improving cancer care and supporting NCCN’s mission to help all people with cancer to live better lives.

The 2024 NCCN Award Recipients are:

  • The NCCN COVID-19 Vaccination Advisory Committee
    • NCCN Outstanding Contribution Award
  • Darcie Green, Executive Director, Latinas Contra Cancer
    • NCCN Partners in Cancer Care Award
  • Shaji K. Kumar, MD, Consultant, Division of Hematology, Professor of Medicine, Medical Director, Cancer Center Research Office, Mayo Clinic Comprehensive Cancer Center
    • NCCN Excellence in Engagement Award
  • Donna Black, Senior Guidelines Administrative Manager, NCCN
    • NCCN Employee of the Year Award

The Outstanding Contribution Award recognizes passion for improving the care of people with cancer and exceeding expectations in service of NCCN’s mission. The NCCN COVID-19 Vaccination Advisory Committee included 36 members from NCCN Member Institutions with expertise in hematology and oncology, infectious disease, and medical ethics. They worked very quickly to provide evidence and consensus-based guidance during a time of uncertainty. Their first meeting was conducted on Jan 11, 2021, and Version 1 of the COVID-19 Vaccination Recommendations was published just 11 days later. Over the next two years, the Committee updated the recommendations seven times as new data became available and new vaccines were approved. The latest recommendations are now included in the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology (NCCN Guidelines®) on Prevention and Treatment of Cancer-Related Infections.

Lindsey Baden, MD, from the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Chair of the NCCN Guidelines® Panel for Prevention and Treatment of Cancer-Related Infections accepted the award on behalf of fellow committee co-leads Steven A. Pergam, MD, MPH, from Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center and Brahm Segal, MD, from Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, and the entire committee.

“The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 four years ago changed the world,” said Dr. Baden. “Our patients were most at risk. The creation of the COVID-19 Vaccine Advisory Committee with broad representation across our communities, allowed us to respond thoughtfully and rapidly to care for our patients and each other in the shadow of rapidly evolving data. The committee is proud of its work in providing aggregated, streamlined, and actionable recommendations for COVID-19 vaccinations in persons with cancer.”

The Partners in Cancer Care Award goes to people outside of NCCN Member Institutions who are instrumental in helping NCCN achieve its mission. As Executive Director of Latinas Contra Cancer, Green oversees efforts to build the capacity of Latino communities to advocate effectively for themselves in healthcare settings. She leads a team of health educators and advocates to provide culturally and linguistically sensitive cancer education, navigation, and survivor support. Through her advocacy, Green has worked relentlessly to eliminate disparities in cancer prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. This includes several collaborations with NCCN, such as co-chairing the Health Equity Report Card (HERC) Community Working Group, presenting on webinars for the Alliance for Cancer Care Equity (ACCE), and participating in environmental scans and oncology policy summits.

Green stated: “I would like to express deep gratitude to NCCN not only for this acknowledgement of our work but also for the space NCCN holds for the voice of patients most impacted by race-based health inequities in cancer care and the social inequalities that impact access to and the quality of cancer care. It is an honor to be a part of this network. I look forward to our continuing partnership.”

The Excellence in Engagement Award goes to an NCCN Guidelines Panel Member who exemplifies leadership, drive, and commitment. Dr. Kumar’s leadership as Chair of the NCCN Guidelines Panel for Plasma Cell Neoplasms showcases that and more. He is being honored for his role in significantly expanding the guidelines that he oversees. He is also actively involved with NCCN’s Global Program and Continuing Education Program. Dr. Kumar’s recognition highlighted his dedication, responsiveness, thoughtfulness, and collegiality.

“This is truly an amazing honor, one that belongs to the entire panel,” said Dr. Kumar. “The NCCN role has been a highlight of my career, and I always look forward to the meetings with my friends and colleagues, the in-depth discussions, and the ability to come to a consensus on virtually every issue. The opportunity to make a difference to the patients is at the same time a humbling experience as well as a great honor and privilege. I am very grateful for the constant help and guidance from the amazing NCCN staff, who makes it all possible.”

NCCN Senior Guidelines Administrative Manager, Donna Black, was voted Employee of the Year by her peers. Black serves in a leadership role for the administrative team for the NCCN Guidelines Program. She provides essential support for the NCCN Guidelines, including scheduling panel meetings, coordinating institutional reviews, overseeing submission requests, and much more.

Black said: “I am honored to be selected as the recipient of the Employee of the Year Award. It is a privilege to be a member of the Clinical Information Team that assists clinicians, patients, and caregivers to navigate the cancer care continuum. I am immensely thankful for this recognition, and in turn want to express my appreciation for the dedication and tremendous work of all my team members.”

“We are so grateful for everyone who helps NCCN achieve our mission of improving and facilitating quality, effective, equitable, and accessible cancer care so all patients can live better lives,” said Crystal S. Denlinger, MD, Chief Executive Officer, NCCN. “All of this year’s award recipients have demonstrated incredible leadership, commitment, and dedication in service to people with cancer everywhere. We thank them for everything they do to encourage and uphold the values of NCCN.”

The awards were given out during the NCCN 2024 Annual Conference in Orlando, Florida. Visit NCCN.org/conference to learn more.

# # #

About the National Comprehensive Cancer Network

The National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN®) is a not-for-profit alliance of leading cancer centers devoted to patient care, research, and education. NCCN is dedicated to improving and facilitating quality, effective, equitable, and accessible cancer care so all patients can live better lives. The NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology (NCCN Guidelines®) provide transparent, evidence-based, expert consensus recommendations for cancer treatment, prevention, and supportive services; they are the recognized standard for clinical direction and policy in cancer management and the most thorough and frequently-updated clinical practice guidelines available in any area of medicine. The NCCN Guidelines for Patients® provide expert cancer treatment information to inform and empower patients and caregivers, through support from the NCCN Foundation®. NCCN also advances continuing education, global initiatives, policy, and research collaboration and publication in oncology. Visit NCCN.org for more information.

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