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‘I think BTC is ready’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Evidence is mounting to support a BTC price breakout, but so far, resistance remains in control at $50,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week on familiar ground below $50,000 but anticipation is building for major disruption to begin.Aft

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Evidence is mounting to support a BTC price breakout, but so far, resistance remains in control at $50,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week on familiar ground below $50,000 but anticipation is building for major disruption to begin.

After a fresh push above $50,000 ended in rejection, BTC/USD is keeping traders guessing till the last when it comes to near-term price action — including the end-of-year close.

With just two weeks to go, the kind of blow-off tops which characterized both 2013 and 2017 seem unlikely to repeat, but on-chain metrics are all but unanimously pointing to upside.

With 90% of the Bitcoin supply now officially mined, Cointelegraph takes a look at what could lie in store for investors this week.

Same, same but different?

Sunday was marked by a fresh push to $50,000 and beyond which ultimately failed to hold, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

It's a familiar story, and one which came as no surprise to seasoned market participants.

"53K has been my line in the sand as well. Flip that and we’re back in business," analyst William Clemente reiterated.

While Bitcoin remains under a $1 trillion asset sub-$53,000, other opinions were far from concerned about the unexpected sideways nature of the market this Q4.

For popular Twitter account TechDev, Bitcoin still "rhymes" with previous bull cycle years and seems similar to Q4 last year — right before BTC/USD began its ascent.

Elsewhere, PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow BTC price models, was also optimistic. Uploading a representation of one of his forecasts, he argued that Bitcoin had in fact just been in an extended consolidation phase for most of the year.

"Patience is key," he added.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: PlanB/ Twitter

To taper or not to taper?

This week’s macro trigger comes in the form of the Federal Reserve and its next announcement on the state of its asset purchase program.

A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could provide valuable insights into the future of quantitative easing (QE) and the speed of “tapering” asset purchases.

Amid an inflationary environment and the ongoing risk of Coronavirus fallout, the Fed faces an unenviable balancing act when it comes to the credibility of policies it chose to enact.

As Cointelegraph reported, some are eyeing the meeting as being much more potentially disruptive to crypto markets than last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed the highest U.S. inflation since 1982.

“With no opposition raised by other Fed officials, despite the uncertainty presented by the emergence of the Omicron variant, next week’s meeting look set to see the Fed announce an acceleration in QE tapering, with a $30bn reduction for January (to $60bn of purchases) and a further $30bn reduction in February,” a note from banking giant ING read last week.

“This would mean the Fed wrapping up the programme by the beginning of March, leaving the Federal Reserve with $8.8tn of assets on its balance sheet – more than double its pre-pandemic January 2020 level!”
Fed balance sheet chart. Source: Federal Reserve

Major changes in QE effectively alters the availability of “easy” money, in the words of BitMEX former CEO, Arthur Hayes, and has knock-on effects for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Analyst Cole Garner: Bitcoin ‘is ready’

It’s no secret that on-chain indicators have stayed strong despite spot price decreasing nearly 40% versus all-time highs.

Now, more metrics have joined in, giving analyst Cole Garner some serious faith in “green days” ahead.

In a series of Twitter posts over the weekend, the well-known statistician outlined several of his “go-to” charts which have now turned conspicuously bullish.

“I think BTC is ready,” he summarized about the outlook for BTC/USD as a result.

“Suddenly all of my favorite leading indicators are lining up long & strong.”

Chief among the signals was that coming from over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks. These entities’ BTC balance saw a sudden increase last week, corresponding to buying activity among clients.

While not always corresponding to price increases, OTC remains firmly on Garner’s radar as “powerful alpha.”

“One of the very best leading indicators I've ever seen. The more you think about it -- the more it makes so much intuitive sense,” he wrote.

“It's gone and flipped full bull.”
BTC/USD vs. OTC balance annotated chart. Source: Cole Garner/ Twitter

Another is combined volume delta (CVD) for Bitcoin whales, this sloping upward in what Garner says is an infallible bull sign.

CVD is used to determine the ratio of buyers and sellers during market moves, and its data suggests that buyer interest likewise remains strong at current levels.

“This metric has evolved to be my go-to indicator, over the course of this bull,” he commented.

“It does not lie.”
BTC/USD vs. whale CVD annotated chart. Source: Cole Garner/ Twitter

As ever, not everyone was convinced, with responses arguing that the spike in OTC numbers could be just that — a brief divergence in an overall downtrend. Others are sticking to a narrative that requires Bitcoin to end 2021 with a whimper, slowly consolidating on the way to a return to the upside next year.

Bitcoin ETFs galvanize their reserves

Continuing a previous trend, institutional investors show no signs of divesting themselves of BTC as a "risk" asset under current conditions.

Amid the OTC suspicions, fresh data shows that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are busy accumulating and that demand is there for them to do so.

The Purpose Bitcoin ETF, Canada's first licensed spot ETF product for Bitcoin, added 4,342 BTC to its reserves in December, an increase of 17.6%.

Now with 28,974 BTC, Purpose shows what many have been arguing throughout the year — that Bitcoin exposure for institutional entities is a tide, which must be catered for sooner or later.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF holdings chart. Source: Coinglass

"That's just one ETF," Lex Moskovski, CIO of Moskovski Capital, commented.

The issue of the U.S. denying spot-based Bitcoin ETFs a market remains contentious meanwhile, as industry representatives and even lawmakers get in on pressuring regulators to explain their position.

"Can anyone explain... why Fidelity Investments, one of America's best-known investment advisors, had to go to Canada to offer an ETF, or why physically-settled crypto ETFs are safe and legal in Germany, Brazil, Singapore and elsewhere, but somehow not in the United States?" Brian Brooks, CEO of BitFury, told the Senate Committee on Financial Services in testimony last week.

“Emotional rollercoaster”

It may be that the market simply does not know what to think.

Related: 2 key Bitcoin trading metrics suggest BTC price has bottomed

If the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is any guide, changes in Bitcoin’s overall rangebound price activity are currently able to upend the mood with just a few thousand dollars up or down.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

Fear & Greed has returned to the spotlight in recent weeks thanks to the unexpected nature of the BTC downturn.

Last week, it hit its lowest reading since July — 16/100 or “extreme fear.” It then almost doubled to 28/100 in a single day, before reversing back down to 16 — and then up to 27 — over the weekend.

Over that period, BTC/USD acted within a range of around $4,000.

“This range has turned my Twitter feed into an emotional rollercoaster,” analyst William Clemente joked alongside a chart showing sentiment reactions to recent price moves.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: William Clemente/ Twitter

TechDev meanwhile noted that sentiment is still lower than at the start of the year, which Bitcoin opened at $29,000.

So too is its relative strength index (RSI), a key metric which highlights overbought and oversold phases of an asset at a certain price point.

This, TechDev added, is hiding a “big” bullish divergence.

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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3 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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4 hours ago

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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March 9, 2024

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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