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Housing is Widely Exceeding Early Expectations, but Job Market Remains a Big Concern

Housing is Widely Exceeding Early Expectations, but Job Market Remains a Big Concern

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  • Home prices are expected to grow 3.7% in 2020, according to a survey of 104 economists and real estate experts conducted by Pulsenomics and Zillow. Three months ago, panelists expected a 0.3% decline. 
  • Panelists were also asked when they next expected multifamily housing starts to meet or exceed their pre-pandemic, January level of 619,000 (SAAR). A majority (55%) said that would happen no later than 2023.
  • Experts were far less bullish on a quick labor market recovery, giving just 44% odds that the unemployment rate would match its pre-pandemic low of 3.5% by the end of the decade.

Expert predictions for near-term home price growth improved markedly in the summer compared to the spring as the housing market powered past initial pandemic challenges and grew into an economic bright spot. But even as the housing market remains on largely steady ground, a full labor market recovery could remain out of reach for a decade or more, according to a Zillow survey of dozens of economists and experts nationwide.

The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey[i], sponsored by Zillow and conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC, asks more than 100 economists, investment strategists and real estate experts for their predictions about the U.S. housing market. The Q3 survey focused on the short- and long-term outlook for home prices and construction activity, as well as expectations for U.S. unemployment. 

Just three months ago, when the housing market was in the midst of what turned out to be a brief lull in activity, the panelists expected a slight (0.3%) decline in home prices for 2020. Since then, the prospect of a nationwide price dip has become far less likely as historically low inventory and heavy buyer demand have pushed up prices. Panelists are now more optimistic than they were even before the pandemic, forecasting a 3.7% increase in home prices this year compared to an average expectation for a 2.5% increase in the Q3 2019 survey.[1]

Expectations for home prices in 2021 were also raised, up to 2.7% average forecasted growth from 0.9% last quarter. Beyond next year, the outlook is cloudier. On average, price growth expectations are down slightly from last quarter for 2022 (2.7%, down from 2.9%), 2023 (3%, down from 3.3%) and 2024 (3.3%, down from 3.6%). In dollar terms, panelists expect the typical U.S. home to be worth $255,568 by the end of this year, on average, climbing to a value of $286,851 by the end of 2024.

Additionally, the experts' more optimistic expectations for this year and next come with lesser reservations concerning their long-term outlook for home value growth through 2024. Fewer than one-half (45 percent) of panelists indicated that their long-term home value expectations have downside risk, compared to nearly seven in ten (69 percent) experts who indicated such pessimism just three months ago.

Steady growth in home prices is being driven, in large part, by limited supply and high demand — and builders have taken notice and are making huge efforts to start new projects, despite some long standing challenges. Panelists were also asked for their predictions on when they next expected multifamily housing starts to meet or exceed their pre-pandemic, January level of 619,000 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) — highs not previously reached since the 1980s. A majority (55%) said that would happen no later than 2023 — with similar shares saying it would happen by next year (18%), by 2022 (19%) or by 2023 (18%).

But while panelists were largely bullish on a relatively quick return to pre-pandemic levels for the housing and construction markets, they were far less optimistic about their expectations for a full labor market recovery. Asked if they expected the U.S. unemployment rate to match its pre-pandemic low of 3.5% at any point in the next decade, on average, panelists gave just 44% odds that unemployment would match recent lows by 2030 or sooner. Among those that did say it is possible for unemployment to match its recent lows before 2030, 71% of them said it was unlikely to happen until 2025 or later.

In general, the housing market has experienced a much faster rebound to pre-pandemic norms than the job market and economy as a whole. For years, the housing market has been fueled by deep imbalances between a shortage in housing supply and strong underlying housing demand driven in large part by sustained record-low mortgage interest rates and demographic tailwinds as the huge millennial generation ages into their prime home buying years. In many ways, the pandemic has helped supercharge this dynamic. Even as millions remain unemployed, those fortunate enough to keep their jobs or that can otherwise afford to move may be looking to change their housing situations in search of more space and/or a different locale in light of increased work-from-home options, further adding to demand even as supply may remain low.

Methodology

This edition of the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey surveyed 104 experts between August 17, 2020 and September 1, 2020. The survey is conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc. The Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey and any related materials are available through Zillow and Pulsenomics.

 

[1] Figures cited are panel-wide averages. In the previous (Q2 2020) survey, 48 of 106 respondents expected home prices nationwide to decline by some amount for the calendar year 2020; in the Q3 survey, only two of 104 indicated expectations for a nationwide price decline.

The post Housing is Widely Exceeding Early Expectations, but Job Market Remains a Big Concern appeared first on Zillow Research.

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Shipping company files surprise Chapter 7 bankruptcy, liquidation

While demand for trucking has increased, so have costs and competition, which have forced a number of players to close.

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The U.S. economy is built on trucks.

As a nation we have relatively limited train assets, and while in recent years planes have played an expanded role in moving goods, trucks still represent the backbone of how everything — food, gasoline, commodities, and pretty much anything else — moves around the country.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

"Trucks moved 61.1% of the tonnage and 64.9% of the value of these shipments. The average shipment by truck was 63 miles compared to an average of 640 miles by rail," according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2023 numbers.

But running a trucking company has been tricky because the largest players have economies of scale that smaller operators don't. That puts any trucking company that's not a massive player very sensitive to increases in gas prices or drops in freight rates.

And that in turn has led a number of trucking companies, including Yellow Freight, the third-largest less-than-truckload operator; J.J. & Sons Logistics, Meadow Lark, and Boateng Logistics, to close while freight brokerage Convoy shut down in October.

Aside from Convoy, none of these brands are household names. but with the demand for trucking increasing, every company that goes out of business puts more pressure on those that remain, which contributes to increased prices.

Demand for trucking has continued to increase.

Image source: Shutterstock

Another freight company closes and plans to liquidate

Not every bankruptcy filing explains why a company has gone out of business. In the trucking industry, multiple recent Chapter 7 bankruptcies have been tied to lawsuits that pushed otherwise successful companies into insolvency.

In the case of TBL Logistics, a Virginia-based national freight company, its Feb. 29 bankruptcy filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Virginia appears to be death by too much debt.

"In its filing, TBL Logistics listed its assets and liabilities as between $1 million and $10 million. The company stated that it has up to 49 creditors and maintains that no funds will be available for unsecured creditors once it pays administrative fees," Freightwaves reported.

The company's owners, Christopher and Melinda Bradner, did not respond to the website's request for comment.

Before it closed, TBL Logistics specialized in refrigerated and oversized loads. The company described its business on its website.

"TBL Logistics is a non-asset-based third-party logistics freight broker company providing reliable and efficient transportation solutions, management, and storage for businesses of all sizes. With our extensive network of carriers and industry expertise, we streamline the shipping process, ensuring your goods reach their destination safely and on time."

The world has a truck-driver shortage

The covid pandemic forced companies to consider their supply chain in ways they never had to before. Increased demand showed the weakness in the trucking industry and drew attention to how difficult life for truck drivers can be.

That was an issue HBO's John Oliver highlighted on his "Last Week Tonight" show in October 2022. In the episode, the host suggested that the U.S. would basically start to starve if the trucking industry shut down for three days.

"Sorry, three days, every produce department in America would go from a fully stocked market to an all-you-can-eat raccoon buffet," he said. "So it’s no wonder trucking’s a huge industry, with more than 3.5 million people in America working as drivers, from port truckers who bring goods off ships to railyards and warehouses, to long-haul truckers who move them across the country, to 'last-mile' drivers, who take care of local delivery." 

The show highlighted how many truck drivers face low pay, difficult working conditions and, in many cases, crushing debt.

"Hundreds of thousands of people become truck drivers every year. But hundreds of thousands also quit. Job turnover for truckers averages over 100%, and at some companies it’s as high as 300%, meaning they’re hiring three people for a single job over the course of a year. And when a field this important has a level of job satisfaction that low, it sure seems like there’s a huge problem," Oliver shared.

The truck-driver shortage is not just a U.S. problem; it's a global issue, according to IRU.org.

"IRU’s 2023 driver shortage report has found that over three million truck driver jobs are unfilled, or 7% of total positions, in 36 countries studied," the global transportation trade association reported. 

"With the huge gap between young and old drivers growing, it will get much worse over the next five years without significant action."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Wendy’s has a new deal for daylight savings time haters

The Daylight Savings Time promotion slashes prices on breakfast.

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Daylight Savings Time, or the practice of advancing clocks an hour in the spring to maximize natural daylight, is a controversial practice because of the way it leaves many feeling off-sync and tired on the second Sunday in March when the change is made and one has one less hour to sleep in.

Despite annual "Abolish Daylight Savings Time" think pieces and online arguments that crop up with unwavering regularity, Daylight Savings in North America begins on March 10 this year.

Related: Coca-Cola has a new soda for Diet Coke fans

Tapping into some people's very vocal dislike of Daylight Savings Time, fast-food chain Wendy's  (WEN)  is launching a daylight savings promotion that is jokingly designed to make losing an hour of sleep less painful and encourage fans to order breakfast anyway.

Wendy's has recently made a big push to expand its breakfast menu.

Image source: Wendy's.

Promotion wants you to compensate for lost sleep with cheaper breakfast

As it is also meant to drive traffic to the Wendy's app, the promotion allows anyone who makes a purchase of $3 or more through the platform to get a free hot coffee, cold coffee or Frosty Cream Cold Brew.

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Available during the Wendy's breakfast hours of 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (which, naturally, will feel even earlier due to Daylight Savings), the deal also allows customers to buy any of its breakfast sandwiches for $3. Items like the Sausage, Egg and Cheese Biscuit, Breakfast Baconator and Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant normally range in price between $4.50 and $7.

The choice of the latter is quite wide since, in the years following the pandemic, Wendy's has made a concerted effort to expand its breakfast menu with a range of new sandwiches with egg in them and sweet items such as the French Toast Sticks. The goal was both to stand out from competitors with a wider breakfast menu and increase traffic to its stores during early-morning hours.

Wendy's deal comes after controversy over 'dynamic pricing'

But last month, the chain known for the square shape of its burger patties ignited controversy after saying that it wanted to introduce "dynamic pricing" in which the cost of many of the items on its menu will vary depending on the time of day. In an earnings call, chief executive Kirk Tanner said that electronic billboards would allow restaurants to display various deals and promotions during slower times in the early morning and late at night.

Outcry was swift and Wendy's ended up walking back its plans with words that they were "misconstrued" as an intent to surge prices during its most popular periods.

While the company issued a statement saying that any changes were meant as "discounts and value offers" during quiet periods rather than raised prices during busy ones, the reputational damage was already done since many saw the clarification as another way to obfuscate its pricing model.

"We said these menuboards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items," Wendy's said in its statement. "This was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants."

The Daylight Savings Time promotion, in turn, is also a way to demonstrate the kinds of deals Wendy's wants to promote in its stores without putting up full-sized advertising or posters for what is only relevant for a few days.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

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"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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