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Gator Capital Management 3Q20 Commentary

Gator Capital Management 3Q20 Commentary

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connectone bancorp

Gator Capital Management commentary for the third quarter ended September 2020, discussing their investment theses in ConnectOne Bancorp and Flushing Financial.

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Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

We are providing you with Gator Financial Partners, LLC’s (the “Fund” or “GFP”) Q3 2020 investor letter. This letter reviews the Fund’s 3rd quarter investment performance and discusses the Fund’s current net exposure and positioning by sub-sector. Additionally, we will provide a review of the Fund’s portfolio, opportunities we see in regional banks and our investment theses in ConnectOne Bancorp and Flushing Financial.

Review Of Q3 2020 Performance

For the 3rd quarter of 2020, the Fund outperformed both the Financials sector benchmark and the overall market. PennyMac Financial Services, OneMain Financial, Ally Financial, and SLM Holdings were top contributors to performance. The largest detractors were Western Alliance Bancorp, Ambac Financial, Pinnacle Financial, and OFG Bancorp.

connectone bancorp

Update On Investment Themes In Fund’s Portfolio

Here’s a closer look at the Fund’s portfolio by sub-industry.

Long Positions

Mortgage Banking & Mortgage Insurance – Mortgage banking companies continued to have strong performance in Q3. PennyMac Financial Services (“PFSI”) was up 39.5%. In Q3, mortgage spreads continued to stay wide like they were in Q2. We hold this position as we expect PFSI to post strong results again in Q3.

Financial Guaranty - We continue to hold our positions in Fannie Mae preferreds and Ambac although both positions lagged in Q3. Neither company had noteworthy news. We expect both names to garner more attention as they approach their respective catalysts in Q4 & Q1.

Preferred Stock – The distressed preferred stocks we purchased in Q1 continue to perform well. In Q3, we added positions in Exantas Capital preferreds and Chimera Investment preferreds. The Exantas Capital preferreds had a 45% return after the board restarted paying dividends, including the accrued dividends.

Capital Markets– We exited our positions in MS, GS & COWN and redeployed the proceeds into regional banks. Since the recovery of these three stocks in Q2 and Q3, we believe the regional banks now offer more upside. We continue to own Credit Suisse and Barclays in the Fund.

Regional Banks – We continue to add to our positions in regional banks. Even though the Financials sector index was up 3.58% during Q3, the Regional Bank index was down 6.08%. We explore the compelling opportunity we see in regional banks later in this letter.

Consumer Finance – Our positions in consumer finance companies performed well in Q3. We continue to hold these positions as we think their credit losses will be less than market expectations. The consumer remains surprisingly strong. The consumer finance companies will benefit from higher government stimulus spending.

Short Positions

High-Multiple Regional Banks – Our high-multiple bank shorts added value again during Q3. These are well-run banks but trade at the very highest valuations of their bank peers. We believe these names will underperform if regional bank stocks rally.

Extreme Valuation Presents Opportunity In Regional Banks

We believe there is a “once in a decade” opportunity in regional bank stocks.

As you know, regional bank stocks have significantly lagged the broader market in 2020. Through September 30th, the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index declined 36.75% vs. the S&P 500 Index rising 5.57%. This poor 2020 performance comes after regional banks lagged the broader market over the previous three years. From 2017 to 2019, regional banks returned only 11% vs. the S&P 500 Index’s 52% return.

This long-term underperformance of regional bank stocks created the current opportunity that we see.

Industry Valuations at S&L Crisis Levels

Regional bank valuations are very compelling. Currently, 100 of the 186 banks, with deposits of at least $3 billion, trade below tangible book value. At the end of 2017, only 6 banks traded below tangible book value.

The median price-to-tangible book value of all publicly traded banks is 1.1x. This is lower than the valuations during the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”). The only time in the last 30 years with lower bank valuations was during the stock market break in late 1990 when Saddam Hussain invaded Kuwait during the height of the Savings & Loan Crisis (“S&L Crisis”). From August 1990 to January 1991, regional banks traded at 0.9x tangible book.

connectone bancorp

We think the median regional bank valuation can easily reach 1.5x tangible book in the current interest rate environment. As recently as 2016 to 2018, the median regional bank traded at 2.2x tangible book. In 1998, and from 2004 to 2007, the median regional bank traded close to 3x tangible book. We don’t think regional banks will reach those valuations due to increased capital requirements and increased competitive intensity. But, as credit quality concerns abate, we think regional banks can rally.

Another way to evaluate how attractive regional bank valuations are is to look at the implied deposit premiums of banks versus where M&A transactions historically have been priced. This view of value makes sense because most investors look to deposits as the franchise value of a bank. To measure value, investors look at deposit premiums. Since 2016, the average deposit premium for acquired banks with more than $3 billion of deposits was 14%. Currently, only 3 of the 186 banks with deposits greater than $3 billion trade for a deposit premium of 14% or greater. At the end of 2017, 49 of 148 banks traded with deposit premiums above 14%. So, almost all banks trade below where they would trade in an M&A transaction.

Credit Risk in a Pandemic Economy

The fundamental cause of poor performance for bank stocks this year is investors fear of credit risk. When the economy started to shut down in March, the floor dropped out from under bank stock prices. But, credit losses haven’t appeared in the banks’ financial statements so far. We think the banks are going to have significantly lower credit losses in this credit cycle compared to the GFC or the S&L Crisis in the early 1990s.

The main reason for lower credit losses is better underwriting during this cycle. We believe the bank regulators stopped banks from making many marginal loans. We also think the annual banking stress tests have forced banks to restrict risk taking. This has positioned banks with much lower risk loan portfolios than past cycles.

Additional reasons for lower credit losses include:

  • Lower customer leverage
  • A strong economy before the sudden shutdown
  • Quick reactions by businesses and consumers to conserve cash
  • Speedy government action to provide stimulus and forbearance

There are two wrinkles that make the low level of credit losses indistinct. First, loan forbearance and deferrals obscure how many customers are able to make payments. The bank regulators directed banks to generously grant loan forbearance and deferrals. Many customers took the offers of help even though they had the ability to pay. At the end of Q2, the median bank had 15% of their loan portfolios in deferral. This high level of deferral made it difficult for many investors to get comfortable with the underlying credit risk. Investors were unsure if large numbers of these customers were going to default and cause losses. During Q3, many banks gave updates on customer payment trends as deferrals expired. These banks report that the number of customers getting a second deferral dropped on average from mid-teens to mid-single-digit levels.

The second wrinkle that made the low level of credit losses difficult for investors to see is the implementation of a new accounting methodology for loan losses, which is called Current Expected Credit Losses (“CECL”) Methodology. Under CECL, a bank has to provide for lifetime loan loss reserves when they make a loan. Then, each quarter, the bank has to adjust their CECL reserves for changes to their economic forecast. (Note - Most banks outsource their economic forecast to an independent firm such as Moody’s.) So, when the banks reported their Q1 earnings, it was their first earnings report using CECL. They had to use significantly worse economic forecasts in setting their loan loss provisions for Q1 than they did when they set their initial reserve on January 2nd. We think investors will be surprised as banks will have to keep building their loan loss reserves in Q3 and Q4 as a result of CECL forcing them to provide large reserves in Q1 & Q2.

Other Headwinds for Banks

Credit risk is not the only current headwind for regional banks. While there are several others, we think each is manageable. We also think the current stock prices of the banks overly discount these issues.

ZIRP – “Zero Interest Rate Policy” is a strong headwind for banks because there is pressure on loan earnings. Because many banks already have deposit costs close to zero, they cannot offset the lower loan yields with lower deposit costs. We see banks instituting loan floors to protect themselves from low rates. Some banks earn substantial loan yields because they have a niche.

Banks with weaker deposit franchises or banks with high loan-to-deposit ratios actually benefit from the current environment. They can replace high-cost funding with low-cost deposits.

We expect low-interest rates for an extended period. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at zero from 2008 to 2015. Although we do not think the current economy is as bad as the GFC, we do think the Federal Reserve has changed its tolerance of inflation. We could easily see interest rates staying at zero for five years in this cycle. We acknowledge low-interest rates will limit bank returns and valuations for the next several years, but we believe the current valuations overly discount this headwind.

Bank Investors Torched – The community of institutional investors who focus on bank stocks has struggled this year. Many bank stock investors focus on small-cap banks with less liquidity. We observed forced selling by this group of investors from March to September as these funds had to raise cash to meet investor redemptions. In talking with other bank investors, there is consensus that bank stocks are cheap, but everyone is already fully invested. This community is looking for new capital to put to work.

Limited Loan Growth – After the revolving line of credit draws in March, loan growth has been tepid. We think this a demand problem rather than a supply problem. Although banks tightened credit standards in 2020, they still want to make new loans. With the economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic and the high levels of liquidity offered by the capital markets, bank customers are not seeking bank loans.

Election Risk – At first glance, it would seem the banking industry would have downside risk to a Biden Administration due to the potential for higher regulation. But, the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index is actually down 7% since Trump’s election in 2016 despite rallying 35% in the first four months immediately after the election. How much worse could the banks perform than they did under the Trump administration?

The bullish case for banks under Biden:

  1. There is less pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low
  2. Stronger economic recovery as we get a federal government plan to snuff out the virus
  3. Less economic volatility from on-again, off-again trade wars with China
  4. Biden turns out to be surprisingly bank-agnostic. We see evidence of this from the decades of credit card company campaign contributions to Biden during his time as a senator from Delaware.

M&A is on Slower – The banking M&A environment has slowed since the pandemic started. There are several reasons

  1. Potential acquirers are more internally focused
  2. Acquirers are shy about buying another bank’s loan portfolio with the uncertain economy
  3. Sellers have not adjusted price expectations for the decline in stock prices
  4. Acquirers do not have the currency to make acquisitions.

We think there may be defensive M&A in the current environment where bank management teams know they need to sell. There may be some low-premium, merger of equal deals where two similar banks merge to cut costs and both participate in a bank stock recovery. We saw an example of a low premium deal with the announcement of the First Citizens/CIT deal last week. We think a full-scale regional bank M&A environment will not return until late 2021 or 2022.

Positives for Banks

Although there are headwinds for regional banks, there are also some positives in the current environment.

Awash in Deposits – Since March, the banking system has become awash in deposits. This has been driven on a micro-level by corporations and consumers keeping more cash than normal in their checking accounts because of the economic uncertainty. On a macro level, the Fed engaging in Quantitative Easing replaces bonds held by investors with cash, which finds its way into bank deposits. Regional banks have been able to use these deposits to replace other higher-cost borrowings and to improve their loan-to-deposit ratios. We expect the high level of deposits to remain in the banking system for an extended period.

Levered to Recovery Trade – We expect regional banks to outperform as stock market investors gain confidence that the economy is recovering as people return to the workplace and normal activities resume. We call this the “Recovery Trade.” Generally, stocks of companies most impacted by the economy shuttering down are grouped together in the Recovery Trade. These include retail shopping centers, hotels, restaurants, airlines, cruise lines, and casinos. Year-to-date, this group of stocks has massively underperformed the market. We see this group outperform on days where there is positive news about a possible vaccination. We believe that out of these groups regional banks have the least impaired businesses. The regional banks have remained profitable while most of the businesses in the other industry groups reported substantial losses and increased their debt and/or sold equity at dilutive prices to offset their cash losses.

Expense Cutting Opportunity – Banks have been cutting expenses for several years. With strong deposit growth during sheltering-in-place, banks are seeing further opportunities to cut expenses. We think this will initially focus on more branch consolidation. But, we think bank cost-cutting will quickly move to the back office in terms of both headcount and real estate. In recent weeks, we have seen a handful of banks announce they were cutting 15-20% of their branches.

Return of Stock Repurchases – Bank stock valuations are very cheap. Banks continue to make money and build capital, and loan demand is weak. This would be an opportune time to use their excess capital to repurchase stock. We are beginning to see several banks with assets below $10 billion announce resumptions of their buybacks. We think this is good news for investors and expect this trend to expand through the end of the year. We anticipate bank regulators will allow larger banks to restart their repurchase programs in early 2021.

Secular Issues

Banks have long been average market performers. There are some obvious long-term secular issues with banks. They are exposed to asymmetric risk to the downside in the form of credit risk. The industry is competitive, and the competitive intensity is increasing. FinTech is a persistent threat. We don’t think these issues are dealbreakers for the current opportunity, but they reinforce that the current opportunity is more a trade versus a permanent investment opportunity.

Increasing Competitive Intensity – The banking industry is increasing in competitive intensity. There are several reasons for increasing competition including:

  • The removal of interstate branching restrictions
  • Consumer lending products have consolidated nationally
  • Traditional non-bank firms such as brokerage houses providing banking services
  • Technology providers allow smaller banks to benefit from scale

This increase in competitive intensity will keep a cap on margins long-term for banks.

Encroachment by FinTech – Financial Technology firms are encroaching on various aspects of the banking business. Examples are prepaid products, mortgage banking, and consumer loan origination. We believe these products are not disrupting the banking business as a whole, but they are chipping away at the profitable edges of banking.

Narrow Business Lines – Regional banks are not as diversified as they were 30 years ago. Since that time, consumer lending products such as credit cards, student loans, and mortgages have consolidated to the large national players such as JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. Regional banks are left with commercial real estate lending and middle market C&I lending. This lack of diversification makes banks more cyclical. This cyclical aspect is somewhat offset by strong banking regulators limiting the credit risk that banks can take.

Regional banks with the most opportunity

Growth Banks – Several regional banks with historically higher organic growth rates trade for little valuation premium to the broader universe of regional banks. Banks like CNOB, PNFP, AX & WTFC trade in-line with regional banks, but they have grown faster than the industry. At some point, we believe the market will again place a growth premium on these banks. Plus, these banks tend to compound tangible book value at a faster rate than peers.

Very Inexpensive Banks – There are dozens of banks that are trading between 50% and 80% of tangible book value. Largely, these banks have been profitable throughout 2020. Besides credit fears, we believe these banks are cheap because too much investor capital has left the sector.

Puerto Rico Banks – As we wrote in our July investor letter, the Puerto Rico banks trade cheap compared to the mainland U.S. bank. This is despite significant consolidation on the island and a potentially strong Puerto Rico economy. We like all three banks in Puerto Rico: BPOP, FBP & OFG.

Example bank pick: ConnectOne Bancorp (“CNOB”)

ConnectOne Bancorp (“CNOB”) is a $7 billion bank with 28 branches mostly in northern New Jersey. ConnectOne Bancorp has a strong management team led by CEO Frank Sorrentino. The bank has a history of strong organic growth. In recent years, it has become a skilled consolidator of other banks. With the pandemic, investors sold the stock due to general concerns regarding credit risk. We think the valuation is too low given the bank’s history of solid credit and strong growth.

connectone bancorp

1. Strong loan & deposit growth – Since 2010, ConnectOne Bancorp  has grown loans per share by 14% annually and deposits per share by 11% annually. We look at the loan and deposit growth per share to account for both organic growth and shares issued through acquisitions.

2. Solid credit – ConnectOne Bancorp  has a history of good credit quality. Other than taxi medallions, CNOB has had minimal losses throughout its history. We think the bank has a solid credit culture.

3. Favorable deferral trends – Like many other regional banks, ConnectOne Bancorp issued an 8-K during September showing that a large majority of customers who took loan deferrals in March and April are returning to normal payments. On June 30th, 17.2% of CNOB’s loans had deferrals. As of September 16th, loan deferrals dropped to 5%. We spoke with the bank on September 23rd, their construction loan portfolio has performed very well with a high level of residential demand in the Jersey suburbs.

4. Bank of New Jersey cost saves – ConnectOne Bancorp closed the Bank of New Jersey (“BNJ”) acquisition in January of this year. This was a great deal because ConnectOne Bancorp layered BNJ’s loans and deposits onto its balance sheet, but eliminated almost all of BNJ’s expenses. In fact, 8 of 9 BNJ branches have closed. This merger closed on January 2nd, so the financial benefits of this merger are obscured by loan loss provisions from the pandemic. If we look at the Pre-Provision Net Revenue/Net Assets, it increased to 1.96% in Q2 from 1.84% in Q4.

connectone bancorp

5. NIM stable in current environment – ConnectOne Bancorp was able to maintain its net interest margin (“NIM”) over the last two quarters. Management expects the margin to remain stable as deposits reprice lower. CNOB’s loans are mostly fixed-rate assets or are floating-rate loans with floors that will reprice more slowly. CNOB benefits from all the liquidity in the financial system as the banking industry has a significant amount of excess deposits.

6. Valuation – ConnectOne Bancorp trades at 85% price-to-tangible book ratio and 7.2x 2021 earnings estimate. Peer banks in New York metro trade at 1.1x tangible book and 9.2x 2021 earnings estimates.

connectone bancorp

7. Not widely followed by sell-side – Only Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (“KBW”), Stephens, and Raymond James write research on ConnectOne Bancorp. We like stocks like CNOB where there is little to no research
coverage.

8. No well-known short thesis – As far we can tell, there is no controversial short thesis on ConnectOne Bancorp which would justify its low valuation. CNOB only has 1.1% of its shares sold short. CNOB shares sold short has ranged between 0.5% to 3.0%.

Issues

1. Loan-to-deposit ratio >100% - ConnectOne Bancorp’s loan-to-deposit ratio is 103%. We prefer banks with loan-to-deposit ratios of 95% or lower. We think a lower loan-to-deposit ratio proves the stability of the franchise. ConnectOne Bancorp had a lower loan-to-deposit ratio prior to its merger with Center Bancorp.

2. Commercial Real Estate concentration – ConnectOne Bancorp has a concentration of Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) loans. Regulators have a long history of wanting to limit CRE concentrations. However, regulators have softened this guidance in the last several years to take into account strong collateral and a history of low credit losses. We think this applies directly to CNOB as their credit losses have been well-below banking industry averages.

We think ConnectOne Bancorp is too cheap for a growing, profitable bank with a history of low credit risk. From an 0.85x price-totangible book ratio, we believe CNOB can trade up to a 1.6x price-to-tangible book level. This is the average level that CNOB traded from 2013 to 2019. In fact, CNOB traded up to 2.2x tangible book in 2017-2018.

Example bank pick: Flushing Financial Corp (“FFIC”)

Flushing Financial (“FFIC”) is a bank with 20 branches on Long Island. Originally, FFIC was mutual thrift that converted to stock ownership in 1995. The bank has had a long history of strong credit quality, but investors have sold the stock due to COVID-19. We think the valuation is way too low given the bank’s long history of strong credit and incremental changes management is making to the business to improve returns

Bank

1. Strong credit – FFIC has a history of strong credit quality. During the GFC, its peak charge-offs were only 0.65%, which was a fraction of the industry’s charge-offs. We see FFIC’s real estate loans average less than 50% loan-to-value ratio.

2. Pending merger will improve returns – FFIC is in the process of closing an acquisition to buy Empire Bancorp (“EMPK”). EMPK has four branches and will expand the FFIC footprint towards the eastern end of Long Island. FFIC is buying EMPK for 96% of book value. With the cost savings, the acquisition will be 20% accretive to FFIC 2021 earnings. FFIC’s estimated return on equity (“ROE”) will increase from 8% to 10%.

Bank

3. Expanding NIM in current environment – FFIC’s net interest margin (“NIM”) expanded in the last two quarters. Management expects the margin to continue to expand as deposits reprice lower. As a former thrift, FFIC has higher-cost deposits. Their customers have been consumers buying CDs rather than businesses with operating checking accounts. With the ample liquidity in this environment, FFIC is growing their deposits while lowering their deposit rates paid. FFIC’s loans are mostly fixed-rate assets that will reprice more slowly.

4. High, well-covered dividend – FFIC pays a 21 cent per share quarterly dividend, which translates to a 7.2% yield. With FFIC earning 35 per quarter this year while adding to its loan loss reserve, we believe the dividend is well-covered. As the loan loss provision declines and the Empire Bancorp deal closes, we think FFIC’s earnings will trend towards 50 cents per share a quarter in 2021.

5. Valuation – FFIC trades at 0.59x price-to-tangible book ratio and 5.7x 2021 earnings estimate. Peer banks in New York trade at 1.2x tangible book and 10.2x 2021 earnings estimates.

6. Not widely followed by sell-side – Only KBW and Piper Sandler provide sell-side research coverage on FFIC. KBW’s analyst has been lukewarm on the Empire acquisition. The Piper analyst has been restricted because the firm is an advisor on the Empire deal and has not published research on FFIC in many months. We like stocks like FFIC where there is little to no research coverage.

7. No well-known short thesis –FFIC only has 2.7 days volume of its shares sold short. This number has ranged between 1.7 days and 28 days with an average above 10 days. We talked with a few investors who have avoided FFIC because some of the commercial real estate loans have exposure to street-level retail stores in Brooklyn and Queens. We acknowledge this risk and believe FFIC’s low loan-to-value ratio on its loan portfolio protects against this risk.

Issues

1. Merger Integration – FFIC’s deal to buy Empire Bancorp is its first acquisition since 2006, so there may be higher than average integration risk. The good news is Empire only has 4 branches, so this is not an overly complex deal to integrate.

2. Loan-to-deposit ratio >100% - FFIC’s loan-to-deposit ratio will be 110% after the Empire Bancorp deal closes. We think a lower loan-to-deposit ratio proves the stability of the franchise.

3. Commercial Real Estate concentration – FFIC has one of the highest concentrations of Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) loans. Regulators have a long history of wanting to limit CRE concentrations. However, regulators softened this guidance in the last several years to account for strong collateral and a history of low credit losses. We think this applies directly to FFIC. Their credit losses have been wellbelow banking industry averages because most of their CRE exposures are on rent-controlled apartment buildings in New York City. Rent-control apartment buildings in New York City have a history of low credit losses. This is result of few vacancies that do not last long.

4. Lower than peer fee income – FFIC history as a thrift means most of its revenue has come from spread revenue and less has come from fee income. Historically, commercial banks have had higher fee income than thrifts which has led to commercial banks having higher margins and higher returns than thrifts. Even though FFIC has shifted its balance sheet to have more commercial and industrial loans, FFIC has not grown its fee income proportionality.

We think FFIC is too cheap for a profitable bank with a history of low credit risk. From a 0.59x price-to-tangible book ratio, we believe FFIC can trade up to a 1.1x price-to-tangible book level. This is the level at which FFIC traded from 2013 to 2019. In fact, FFIC traded at 1.4x in 2017-18. If FFIC were to make substantially more progress in remixing its deposit base, we believe there is further upside to the valuation.

We are not arguing that ConnectOne Bancorp and FFIC are the greatest companies in the world. We are using them as examples of the opportunities we see in the bank stocks. We think both CNOB and FFIC could double in the next three years. If they did double, they would be trading in-line with their median historical valuation.

We believe there are several dozen similar opportunities in bank stocks, so we have purchased positions in many of them. We have expanded the number of long positions in the Fund’s portfolio to include more of these ideas. Even though the number of positions has increased, we don’t believe the concentration of the portfolio has been reduced because many of these positions are very similar and will trade as a group. The two benefits of increasing the number of positions are:

1. It keeps our Fund relatively liquid, and,

2. If one bank’s stock doesn’t work for idiosyncratic reasons, we don’t have much at risk.

Portfolio Analysis

Below are the Fund’s five largest common equity long and short positions. All data is as of September 30th.

Bank

Sub-Sector Weightings

Below is a table showing the Fund’s positioning within the Financials sector as of September 30th:

Bank

Conclusion

We are optimistic about the opportunities we see in the market. We know the Financials sector has badly lagged the broader stock market, but we believe the actual results of most Financial companies is significantly better than their stock prices suggest. Stock market investors are not giving Financial companies the benefit of the doubt about the potential credit risks in their portfolios. We think stocks of banks and other lenders will rise as they show their loan portfolios have fewer problem loans than the market expects.

We wanted to let you know about a couple of organizational changes. Erik Anderson, Gator’s CFO, has left to join Steve Pineault at AmbiView Capital. We believe this is a great opportunity for Erik as we expect AmbiView to be one of the more successful hedge fund launches of 2021. We are terribly sad to lose Erik. He joined Gator when we had less than $20 million in AUM and helped us grow the firm over the past 8 years. Erik had worked for Gator through an outsourced CFO arrangement with Oakpoint Advisors. Oakpoint has hired Tom Scully to replace Erik. Tom is a hedge fund veteran of Latimer Light Capital and Blue Ridge Capital. We look forward to Tom helping us at Gator. On happier news, Lexy Sayers, Gator’s long-time marketing analyst, gave birth in August to a beautiful baby girl. We are thrilled for Lexy and her husband, Yates, on the new addition to their family.

Thank you for entrusting us with a portion of your wealth. We are so thankful for our investors and their commitment to us. Despite the volatility in 2020, we have had positive net flows into the Fund during 2020. On a personal level, Derek Pilecki, the Fund’s Portfolio Manager, continues to have more than 80% of his liquid net worth invested in the Fund.

As always, we are available by phone whenever you want to discuss the Fund or investing in general.

Sincerely,

Gator Capital Management, LLC

The post Gator Capital Management 3Q20 Commentary appeared first on ValueWalk.

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President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…

Published

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President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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International

What is intersectionality and why does it make feminism more effective?

The social categories that we belong to shape our understanding of the world in different ways.

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Mary Long/Shutterstock

The way we talk about society and the people and structures in it is constantly changing. One term you may come across this International Women’s Day is “intersectionality”. And specifically, the concept of “intersectional feminism”.

Intersectionality refers to the fact that everyone is part of multiple social categories. These include gender, social class, sexuality, (dis)ability and racialisation (when people are divided into “racial” groups often based on skin colour or features).

These categories are not independent of each other, they intersect. This looks different for every person. For example, a black woman without a disability will have a different experience of society than a white woman without a disability – or a black woman with a disability.

An intersectional approach makes social policy more inclusive and just. Its value was evident in research during the pandemic, when it became clear that women from various groups, those who worked in caring jobs and who lived in crowded circumstances were much more likely to die from COVID.

A long-fought battle

American civil rights leader and scholar Kimberlé Crenshaw first introduced the term intersectionality in a 1989 paper. She argued that focusing on a single form of oppression (such as gender or race) perpetuated discrimination against black women, who are simultaneously subjected to both racism and sexism.

Crenshaw gave a name to ways of thinking and theorising that black and Latina feminists, as well as working-class and lesbian feminists, had argued for decades. The Combahee River Collective of black lesbians was groundbreaking in this work.

They called for strategic alliances with black men to oppose racism, white women to oppose sexism and lesbians to oppose homophobia. This was an example of how an intersectional understanding of identity and social power relations can create more opportunities for action.

These ideas have, through political struggle, come to be accepted in feminist thinking and women’s studies scholarship. An increasing number of feminists now use the term “intersectional feminism”.

The term has moved from academia to feminist activist and social justice circles and beyond in recent years. Its popularity and widespread use means it is subjected to much scrutiny and debate about how and when it should be employed. For example, some argue that it should always include attention to racism and racialisation.

Recognising more issues makes feminism more effective

In writing about intersectionality, Crenshaw argued that singular approaches to social categories made black women’s oppression invisible. Many black feminists have pointed out that white feminists frequently overlook how racial categories shape different women’s experiences.

One example is hair discrimination. It is only in the 2020s that many organisations in South Africa, the UK and US have recognised that it is discriminatory to regulate black women’s hairstyles in ways that render their natural hair unacceptable.

This is an intersectional approach. White women and most black men do not face the same discrimination and pressures to straighten their hair.

View from behind of a young, black woman speaking to female colleagues in an office
Intersectionality can lead to more inclusive organisations, activism and social movements. Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

“Abortion on demand” in the 1970s and 1980s in the UK and USA took no account of the fact that black women in these and many other countries needed to campaign against being given abortions against their will. The fight for reproductive justice does not look the same for all women.

Similarly, the experiences of working-class women have frequently been rendered invisible in white, middle class feminist campaigns and writings. Intersectionality means that these issues are recognised and fought for in an inclusive and more powerful way.

In the 35 years since Crenshaw coined the term, feminist scholars have analysed how women are positioned in society, for example, as black, working-class, lesbian or colonial subjects. Intersectionality reminds us that fruitful discussions about discrimination and justice must acknowledge how these different categories affect each other and their associated power relations.

This does not mean that research and policy cannot focus predominantly on one social category, such as race, gender or social class. But it does mean that we cannot, and should not, understand those categories in isolation of each other.

Ann Phoenix does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Government

Biden defends immigration policy during State of the Union, blaming Republicans in Congress for refusing to act

A rising number of Americans say that immigration is the country’s biggest problem. Biden called for Congress to pass a bipartisan border and immigration…

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President Joe Biden delivers his State of the Union address on March 7, 2024. Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Images

President Joe Biden delivered the annual State of the Union address on March 7, 2024, casting a wide net on a range of major themes – the economy, abortion rights, threats to democracy, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine – that are preoccupying many Americans heading into the November presidential election.

The president also addressed massive increases in immigration at the southern border and the political battle in Congress over how to manage it. “We can fight about the border, or we can fix it. I’m ready to fix it,” Biden said.

But while Biden stressed that he wants to overcome political division and take action on immigration and the border, he cautioned that he will not “demonize immigrants,” as he said his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, does.

“I will not separate families. I will not ban people from America because of their faith,” Biden said.

Biden’s speech comes as a rising number of American voters say that immigration is the country’s biggest problem.

Immigration law scholar Jean Lantz Reisz answers four questions about why immigration has become a top issue for Americans, and the limits of presidential power when it comes to immigration and border security.

President Joe Biden stands surrounded by people in formal clothing and smiles. One man holds a cell phone camera close up to his face.
President Joe Biden arrives to deliver the State of the Union address at the US Capitol on March 7, 2024. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

1. What is driving all of the attention and concern immigration is receiving?

The unprecedented number of undocumented migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border right now has drawn national concern to the U.S. immigration system and the president’s enforcement policies at the border.

Border security has always been part of the immigration debate about how to stop unlawful immigration.

But in this election, the immigration debate is also fueled by images of large groups of migrants crossing a river and crawling through barbed wire fences. There is also news of standoffs between Texas law enforcement and U.S. Border Patrol agents and cities like New York and Chicago struggling to handle the influx of arriving migrants.

Republicans blame Biden for not taking action on what they say is an “invasion” at the U.S. border. Democrats blame Republicans for refusing to pass laws that would give the president the power to stop the flow of migration at the border.

2. Are Biden’s immigration policies effective?

Confusion about immigration laws may be the reason people believe that Biden is not implementing effective policies at the border.

The U.S. passed a law in 1952 that gives any person arriving at the border or inside the U.S. the right to apply for asylum and the right to legally stay in the country, even if that person crossed the border illegally. That law has not changed.

Courts struck down many of former President Donald Trump’s policies that tried to limit immigration. Trump was able to lawfully deport migrants at the border without processing their asylum claims during the COVID-19 pandemic under a public health law called Title 42. Biden continued that policy until the legal justification for Title 42 – meaning the public health emergency – ended in 2023.

Republicans falsely attribute the surge in undocumented migration to the U.S. over the past three years to something they call Biden’s “open border” policy. There is no such policy.

Multiple factors are driving increased migration to the U.S.

More people are leaving dangerous or difficult situations in their countries, and some people have waited to migrate until after the COVID-19 pandemic ended. People who smuggle migrants are also spreading misinformation to migrants about the ability to enter and stay in the U.S.

Joe Biden wears a black blazer and a black hat as he stands next to a bald white man wearing a green uniform and a white truck that says 'Border Patrol' in green
President Joe Biden walks with Jason Owens, the chief of the U.S. Border Patrol, as he visits the U.S.-Mexico border in Brownsville, Texas, on Feb. 29, 2024. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

3. How much power does the president have over immigration?

The president’s power regarding immigration is limited to enforcing existing immigration laws. But the president has broad authority over how to enforce those laws.

For example, the president can place every single immigrant unlawfully present in the U.S. in deportation proceedings. Because there is not enough money or employees at federal agencies and courts to accomplish that, the president will usually choose to prioritize the deportation of certain immigrants, like those who have committed serious and violent crimes in the U.S.

The federal agency Immigration and Customs Enforcement deported more than 142,000 immigrants from October 2022 through September 2023, double the number of people it deported the previous fiscal year.

But under current law, the president does not have the power to summarily expel migrants who say they are afraid of returning to their country. The law requires the president to process their claims for asylum.

Biden’s ability to enforce immigration law also depends on a budget approved by Congress. Without congressional approval, the president cannot spend money to build a wall, increase immigration detention facilities’ capacity or send more Border Patrol agents to process undocumented migrants entering the country.

A large group of people are seen sitting and standing along a tall brown fence in an empty area of brown dirt.
Migrants arrive at the border between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, to surrender to American Border Patrol agents on March 5, 2024. Lokman Vural Elibol/Anadolu via Getty Images

4. How could Biden address the current immigration problems in this country?

In early 2024, Republicans in the Senate refused to pass a bill – developed by a bipartisan team of legislators – that would have made it harder to get asylum and given Biden the power to stop taking asylum applications when migrant crossings reached a certain number.

During his speech, Biden called this bill the “toughest set of border security reforms we’ve ever seen in this country.”

That bill would have also provided more federal money to help immigration agencies and courts quickly review more asylum claims and expedite the asylum process, which remains backlogged with millions of cases, Biden said. Biden said the bipartisan deal would also hire 1,500 more border security agents and officers, as well as 4,300 more asylum officers.

Removing this backlog in immigration courts could mean that some undocumented migrants, who now might wait six to eight years for an asylum hearing, would instead only wait six weeks, Biden said. That means it would be “highly unlikely” migrants would pay a large amount to be smuggled into the country, only to be “kicked out quickly,” Biden said.

“My Republican friends, you owe it to the American people to get this bill done. We need to act,” Biden said.

Biden’s remarks calling for Congress to pass the bill drew jeers from some in the audience. Biden quickly responded, saying that it was a bipartisan effort: “What are you against?” he asked.

Biden is now considering using section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act to get more control over immigration. This sweeping law allows the president to temporarily suspend or restrict the entry of all foreigners if their arrival is detrimental to the U.S.

This obscure law gained attention when Trump used it in January 2017 to implement a travel ban on foreigners from mainly Muslim countries. The Supreme Court upheld the travel ban in 2018.

Trump again also signed an executive order in April 2020 that blocked foreigners who were seeking lawful permanent residency from entering the country for 60 days, citing this same section of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

Biden did not mention any possible use of section 212(f) during his State of the Union speech. If the president uses this, it would likely be challenged in court. It is not clear that 212(f) would apply to people already in the U.S., and it conflicts with existing asylum law that gives people within the U.S. the right to seek asylum.

Jean Lantz Reisz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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