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Crypto and blockchain: What the Brazilian market can expect for 2021

Cointelegraph Brasil invited some of the country’s top crypto and blockchain experts to chart the next steps for the market.
2020 will be remembered as one of the most difficult years for contemporary societies: Countries and entire..

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Cointelegraph Brasil invited some of the country’s top crypto and blockchain experts to chart the next steps for the market.

2020 will be remembered as one of the most difficult years for contemporary societies: Countries and entire populations have faced lockdowns and economic crises, financial markets still suffer from the severe impacts of the economic recession, and more than 2 million lives have been taken by COVID-19.

Despite this, other sectors have been impacted in other ways during the severe global health crisis — which still seems far from over, even though vaccines are beginning to be distributed in wealthy countries. Economies have radically digitalized, hedge assets have attracted mistrust, and the crypto market has had one of its most important years since 2009, the year of Bitcoin’s (BTC) launch.

In fact, the crypto and blockchain markets have stood out in the face of a crisis that has spared almost no sector. Cryptocurrency funds are among the most profitable of the year, Bitcoin and the biggest altcoins reach new historic highs, large institutions and investors in the financial markets have allocated investments in Bitcoin, and blockchain technology has broken down barriers in the financial sector and in the production chains of the most varied of sectors.

Faced with a year of profound changes, what is to be expected for the future? Cointelegraph Brasil invited some of the country’s top crypto and blockchain experts to chart the next steps for the market.

Institutional investment

Institutional investment was highlighted in 2020, finally reaching the cryptosphere, and it promises another year of growth in 2021.

According to Rodrigo Borges, founding member of the Oxford Blockchain Foundation, large Bitcoin contributions by institutional investors — which have even bought more BTC than the production capacity of miners — will intensify in 2021: “Regarding Bitcoin, I imagine that there will be an increase in demand for institutional investors, enabling the emergence of new products with exposure to Bitcoin,” analyzed Borges. He also sees “2021 as a year of consolidation and strong development in the sector.”

As for Tatiana Revoredo, MIT blockchain expert and Cointelegraph Brasil columnist, the custody of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial institutions and the adoption of stablecoins will be key in the new year:

“In the financial sector, we will see applications for custody of crypto assets being launched in Brazil, with the possible participation of the traditional market. And if the regulatory authorities allow it, stablecoins will have an expressive role in the Brazilian market, with the turnover being able to quadruple in size.”

Crypto markets

Crypto markets experienced a year of extreme optimism — or greed, as demonstrated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Bitcoin reached a dramatic bottom close at $3,800 in March, and it beat its 2017 historic high of $20,000 on Dec. 16. In Brazil, the currency set a new historical record in November when it reached $106,000 Brazillian reals.

Cointelegraph Markets reporter Marcel Pechman highlighted the behavior of the market despite the setbacks suffered during the year. He recalled: “The Bitcoin and Ethereum markets developed in 2020 as never before imagined, both in terms of trading volume, price and the contribution of renowned investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller.”

Pechman said that despite the crypto market suffering some setbacks, the impact of those setbacks on market performance was not so significant: “We had, for example, the US Department of Justice suing BitMEX — at the time, the largest derivatives exchange — and KuCoin’s $280 million hack, and none of those affected the market.”

Pechman also recalled that the 2020 DeFi race led to expensive transaction costs on the Ethereum network but did not impact market sentiment.

OriginalMy CEO Edilson Osório agreed with the promising future of the DeFi sector, but he cautioned against fraud:

“This is an experimental and very promising market, but it must be given extra attention because of malicious groups applying scams and fraud in general. As it is a very new market, platforms may have problems with hacks, and due to the great centralization that exists (even with many platforms presenting themselves as decentralized), there is still a risk of exit scams.”

About 2020’s innovations, and the digitalization imposed by the COVID-19 crisis, Pechman also said that it will go even deeper in 2021:

“Successive innovations, which include Taproot, Schnorr and Lightning Network in Bitcoin, in addition to the launch of Ethereum 2.0 phase 0, pave the way for the next wave, with increasingly larger, scalable applications, and interconnected with traditional finance. The final proof? Fidelity offers loans covered in cryptocurrencies.”

On the domestic markets, Osório is betting on the tokenization market in Brazil, which is already used by the country’s largest crypto exchange, Mercado Bitcoin. According to him, 2021 will be a year for “maturing the security tokens market.”

“Existing protocols are beginning to be well regarded by regulators, since most of them provide for greater participation and visibility on the part of the regulator itself and allow the mitigation of various risks inherent in this market. In this race, there is a great chance that Brazil will gain prominence because the local regulator has established a regulatory sandbox and the first projects are already beginning to mobilize to have their applications running in a more legally secure environment,” – noted Osório.

Another player at the Brazilian crypto markets, João Paulo Mayall — head of operations at QR Asset Management — is also optimistic about the tokenization market in 2021. He highlighted the role of regulators in the sector’s expansion in the South American country: “I believe that the future is the tokenization of assets, debentures, court bonds, government debts. Brazil is very advanced in its banking system and we will have many surprises in this sector, so I am very optimistic. Tokenization is a billion-dollar market, but it lacks the infrastructure. Innovation came in front of the regulators, but I think they are open to listening and working on it. I think [the regulation] will happen next year, even before March 2021.”

Finally, blockchain expert Tatiana Revoredo argued that crypto adoption in Brazil, which saw its currency melt in 2020, will intensify, with Bitcoin once again asserting itself as an economic-protection asset. She believes that the crypto markets will see “an increase in the interest of Brazilians, with consequent increase in the Brazilian market, with a prominent role for Bitcoin being adopted as a protective asset.”

CBDCs and national governments

The digitization of economies has placed the discussion of central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, at the center of debates by financial authorities around the world. One of the countries that has definitely entered this race is China, which is already conducting real tests of the digital yuan in the country. Its main geopolitical rival, the U.S., announced that for the time being, it does not intend to digitize the dollar, but it is already seeing internal pressure from not following the Chinese leadership in the sector.

The Central Bank of Brazil has also commented on the transformation of the Brazillian real into a digital currency a few times, although there are no concrete plans for that in the short term.

Osório believes the European Union will join the hype soon, further accelerating the global race for CBDCs: “Although China appears to be leading the CBDC race, other countries are also beginning to move in this direction. Among them, Estonia, which recently started an internal consultation for the launch of its currency in the digital version. In particular, I believe that in Europe a more comprehensive and organized movement should take place in this sense, given the incentives promoted by the European Union.”

Many experts try to predict the impacts of CBDCs on economies — one of the main concerns of economic regulators. Governments, which largely study the adoption of blockchain in their public processes, should also enter the debate on privacy and the digitization of money.

According to Tatiana Revoredo, “in the government sector, the forecast is for the growth of [blockchain] applications in document registration and health applications, as well as a greater concern, by the citizens, regarding the relationship between privacy and CBDC.” She also claims that payments processors should closely monitor this innovation:

“Those who should be more attentive to these movements are the means of payment, such as PayPal and their peers. They will have to look deeply into their business models as soon as governments start issuing their currencies digitally.”

Blockchain adoption

Governments have also viewed blockchain technology through a positive lens. In Brazil and Latin America, several state entities already use the technology to certify documents, including customs and notary offices. Big companies are also adopting blockchain to certify production, with use cases that are only expected to grow going forward.

Borges said that the acceleration of blockchain adoption by large companies and governments can positively impact crypto assets:

“Within the scope of blockchain technology, I see the development of interesting solutions, with the increasing involvement of traditional players, especially in the financial and agribusiness sectors, which may result in increased liquidity for certain assets.”

Revoredo agreed and highlighted the advancement of technology in the agricultural sector: “There has been a significant advance in agribusiness, with use in the identification of devices (drones, for example), integration with IoT and artificial intelligence to provide greater reliability and certify quality of agricultural production.”

Osório defended the growth of the blockchain market in 2020 and its prospects for the near future: “When we look at advances in blockchain with applications beyond digital currency, we see a growing market in the area of ​​decentralized digital identity, including with the approach of governments. We have seen movements in governments in the US and Japan, interested in modernizing their digital governance models. And the pandemic has certainly helped to accelerate and advance discussions on the issue around the world, as it understands that the digitization of analog and traditional services is a necessity.”

The end of 2020 was a milestone that closed out one of the most dramatic years in the history of contemporary societies, but it also revealed ways to combat global economic and health crises.

Blockchain technology has helped societies fight corruption, adopt more transparent processes and even contributed to the certification of medicines and vaccines during the most serious health crisis of the last 100 years, in addition to helping companies to improve procedures, products and services.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has strengthened as an economic protection and investment product, has attracted institutional investment giants, and — together with other crypto technologies — has even laid the foundation for central banks around the world to start implementing their own digital currencies.

We still do not know the depth of the revolution we are experiencing with the digitalization of societies and the weakening of national currencies around the world, but by the end of 2021, we will certainly know many of the answers to the questions that still plague us at the beginning of this new year.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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March 9, 2024

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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Government

Walmart joins Costco in sharing key pricing news

The massive retailers have both shared information that some retailers keep very close to the vest.

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March 9, 2024

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As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters. 

The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.

The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.

Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing

It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.

You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.

Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.

However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.

Walmart has seen inflation drop in many key areas.

Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Walmart sees lower prices

McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.

During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.

"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.

He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.

"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."

McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.

"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.

Costco sees almost no inflation impact

McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco  (COST)  Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.

The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.

"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.

Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.

"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.

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