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Buffett Sells Stock For Third Quarter In A Row, Slows Buyback With Market At All Time High

Buffett Sells Stock For Third Quarter In A Row, Slows Buyback With Market At All Time High

Over a decade into the biggest metaphorical massacre of value investors by the Federal Reserve (which sadly was also literal in the case of Charles…

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Buffett Sells Stock For Third Quarter In A Row, Slows Buyback With Market At All Time High

Over a decade into the biggest metaphorical massacre of value investors by the Federal Reserve (which sadly was also literal in the case of Charles de Vaulx, a renowned value investor and co-founder of International Value Advisors, who in April jumped to his death from a Manhattan skyscraper), people still seem to care what the biggest value investor of them all, Warren Buffett, does. Or at least some people.

To satisfy their curiosity - even as an entire generation of traders no longer cares, or has heard, about the Oracle of Omaha - who turns 91 next month - and instead wants to know which meme stock to short squeeze to generate overnight tendies - this is what Berkshire Hathaway reported earlier this morning when it filed its second quarter 10Q:

  • Q2 revenue jumped 22% to $69.1 billion.
  • Q2 operating profit - which excludes investment results - rose 21% to $6.69 billion, or about $4,424 per Class A share, from $5.51 billion, or about $3,463 per share, a year earlier; profit declined modestly from the $7.02 billion recorded in Q1, 2021. Profits increased within the company’s railroad, utilities and energy divisions but declined at the company’s vast insurance operations, to wit:
    • Railroad, utilities & energy businesses operating earnings $2.26 billion, +28% y/y
    • Insurance underwriting operating profit $376 million, -53% y/y
    • Insurance float $142 billion, +8.4% y/y
  • Q2 net income rose 7% to $28.1 billion, or $18,488 per Class A share, from $26.3 billion, or $16,314 per share.Net income was bolstered by unrealized gains in Apple, Bank of America and American Express Corp, where Berkshire's investments ended June at $124.3 billion, $42.6 billion and $25.1 billion, respectively. Accounting rules require Berkshire to report the unrealized gains with net results, causing huge swings that Buffett considers meaningless.

The company said that earnings for most of its manufacturing, service and retailing businesses suffered last year as economic activity plunged, job losses soared and shoppers stayed home thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. But over the second half of 2020 and into 2021, many of its businesses have recovered and in some cases, now exceed pre-pandemic levels. As a result, Berkshire said businesses such as the BNSF railroad, NetJets luxury planes and its namesake auto dealerships are posting "significant" recoveries despite supply chain disruptions and higher costs, with earnings and revenue sometimes topping pre-pandemic levels. Another sign of improvement was Berkshire's decision not to repeat a caution from its previous quarterly report that other operating units still faced adverse effects from the pandemic.

Courtesy of Reuters, here is a more details look at Berkshire's vast business empire:

  • BNSF's profit surged 34% to $1.52 billion, as retailers replenished inventories to satisfy consumer demand, and demand grew for building products, grain and coal.
  • Profit soared 43% at Clayton Homes mobile homes and 129% at Berkshire's namesake real estate brokerage as more people bought homes in what many have called a new housing bubble. The brokerage is part of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, where tax credits for wind power were among factors that boosted profit 17% to $740 million.

Some other results were less rosy:

  • Geico's pretax underwriting profit fell 70% as people drove more as drivers returned to the road as the U.S. opened up in recent months and crashed more often, with claims frequencies for collisions rising more than 21%.
  • At another unit, Berkshire had to shell out $160 million to help contain and respond to a fire at one of chemical maker Lubrizol’s facilities in Rockton, Illinois in June.
  • A sore spot remained Precision Castparts, the aircraft and industrial parts maker that in 2020 cut 13,400 jobs and was written down by $9.8 billion as airlines slashed plane orders. Precision's revenue fell another 9%, and Berkshire said a big rebound is not likely soon because customers have enough parts.

Like many other consumer-facing companies - most notably Clorox which imploded this week after issuing an unprecedented profit margin warning due to a "generational inflation" surge- the conglomerate wasn’t immune to the effects of inflation. Berkshire was confronted with higher costs for some materials hitting businesses such as its operations that deal with home building.

Despite a reputation for often either purchasing companies outright or making direct loans during these types of times in markets, Buffett’s firm has been largely silent for much of the pandemic as the billionaire has lamented the lack of underpriced investment opportunities amid what his fellow iconic investor, Howard Marks has dubbed an "everything bubble." Berkshire's biggest deal came in the middle of last year when Berkshire announced an agreement to buy Dominion Energy’s midstream energy business for $9.7 billion including debt. The purchase is typical for Buffett in that Dominion’s stock was in decline and he knows the sector well.

In the latest warning sign of just how overvalued assets are, despite having more than $144 billion of cash at his disposal at June 30, down fractionally from $145.4 billion in cash at the end of the first quarter and not too far off the company's record has pile hit one year ago, the Berkshire Hathaway CEO ended up taking a step back with his capital deployment during the second quarter.

It's not just other stocks that are overvalued: it appears that Berkshire itself is getting expensive as Buffett repurchased just $6 billion of Berkshire stock, the lowest amount of buybacks since the middle of 2020 (if still the fourth-biggest quarter since Berkshire began buying back more stock in 2018 after previously shunned buybacks in favor of other ways of deploying capital)...

... and was a net seller of other stocks for the third quarter in a row, according to the company's 10Q.

As Bloomberg notes, Buffett’s been faced with a high-class problem in recent years: Too much cash, and too few opportunities. He’s been under pressure to do a large deal to help supercharge the company’s growth, but has come up short with well-priced and attractive options, leading Berkshire to spend even more funds buying back its stock. But now, he’s in more of a bind. Berkshire stock, already a challenge because of its lack of liquidity, has rallied in recent months and the broader stock market has also become more pricey with the S&P 500 Index climbing to new highs.

"They’re kind of between a rock and a hard place," Cathy Seifert, an analyst at CFRA Research, told Bloomberg in a phone interview. "Against that backdrop, I think the level of buybacks was prudent and appropriate."

At the company’s annual meeting in May, Buffett said the rise of special-purpose acquisition companies and private-equity funds has helped drive valuations in both private and public companies to levels above where they should be. He said some of these groups invest using other people’s money and have a time limit to deploy cash, which drives up prices. “Frankly, we’re not competitive with that. It won’t go on forever,” Buffett said of SPACs, clearly unaware that it is the Fed's job to make sure that this insanity goes on forever, now that even a modest market pullback would result in economic collapse.

That said, Berkshire net sales of just $1.1 billion in other stocks was the lowest amount in the past three quarters. Those sales appear to have largely come from a decrease in its group of commercial, industrial and other stocks, according to a regulatory filing Saturday. Berkshire is set to report its specific stock changes in a filing later this month. Berkshire shareholder Tom Russo deemed the move as smart given the overall level of the stock market.

“It’s housekeeping,” Russo, who oversees $10 billion including investments in Berkshire shares at Gardner Russo & Quinn LLC, told Bloomberg. “He’s been willing to do that a lot more. He came in and out of airlines, he’s come in and out of other holdings.”

Still, despite its investing "challenges", markets rewarded the conglomerate with Berkshire Class A stock up 8.5% during the second quarter, following a nearly 11% gain in the first three months of the year. For all of 2021, Berkshire's share price has risen 23.7% outperforming the S&P's 500 18.1% gain, after significantly trailing the index in 2019 and 2020.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/07/2021 - 12:34

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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