Bitcoin Futures Traders Bet on Bullish Price Action, but Not Too Fast
Bitcoin Futures Traders Bet on Bullish Price Action, but Not Too Fast
Share this:
Bitcoin futures open interest is currently at an all-time high as traders expect more upside for BTC’s spot price.
Bitcoin (BTC) futures trading has been on a high since July 21 with both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Bakkt seeing sizeable increases in volume and open interest for their contracts. This resurgence in BTC futures comes as the spot market value of the largest crypto by market capitalization reached a new 2020 high.
Two months on from the May 2020 halving event, BTC has begun to show signs of the anticipated bullish advance. Bitcoin usually sets a new all-time high in the year following a block reward subsidy decrease, with BTC optimists stating the trend will continue.
Amid the current positive price action for Bitcoin, bullish sentiment appears to be gathering steam in the BTC futures market. Long positions currently outnumber shorts by almost 9-to-1, which means that any significant downward retracement could see a cascade of liquidations on optimistic bets, especially for traders with overleveraged longs. Back in mid-March 2020, the market panic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic saw Bitcoin fall to $3,800. This drop caused a cascade of forced liquidations, especially on derivatives exchanges like BitMEX.
Bitcoin’s price reaches new 2020 high
The price surge for BTC comes amid a raft of positive news for the crypto space with the United States Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allowing national banks to offer cryptocurrency custody services. Major economies have also been moving toward stimulus packages to alleviate the disruptions occasioned by the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. EU leaders have already approved a $2-trillion spending plan with almost half of the earmarked sum geared to support economies hardest-hit by COVID-19. In the U.S., lawmakers have been working on another round of stimulus payments, which could go as high as $3 trillion.
With the U.S. Federal Reserve printing more money in one month than in the last 200 years, investors appear to be keen on hedging against the attendant risk of currency debasement. This sentiment appears to be providing significant tailwinds for haven assets like BTC and gold. Bitcoin’s rise to a new 2020 high also coincided with gold setting a new price record per ounce. Indeed, the precious metal is close to crossing the $2,000 landmark, with silver also at its highest level in over seven years.
CME BTC futures interest sets new all-time high
As previously reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin futures open interest has been on the rise in tandem with the gains seen in the spot market. According to data from crypto derivatives analytics platform Skew, CME BTC futures open interest is at an all-time high of $740M.
A week after “Black Thursday,” CME Bitcoin futures open interest almost fell to their lowest level in three months. However, as spot price recovered in the weeks that followed, so too did the open interest in CME’s cash-settled BTC futures contract until the May halving. With the block reward subsidy event not triggering any immediate price gains, OI took a significant dip once again. At the time, retail crypto derivatives traders suffered liquidations to the tune of about $1.3 billion, as the BTC price saw a retrace from $10,000 to the $8,600 support level.
It is perhaps interesting to note that while OI is on the rise, trading volume has cooled off significantly over the last few days of July. The same trend can be observed for Bakkt, with open interest at an all-time high of $22 million, but trading volume has been on a downward slide for both its cash and physically settled futures contracts.
Indeed, the rising OI in Bitcoin futures is representative of the trend seen in the crypto derivatives arena as a whole. According to its Q2 2020 report, market analytics platform TokenInsight revealed that marketwide cryptocurrency derivatives OI rose from $2.62 billion to $5.53 billion in the second quarter of 2020. Typically, high OI and low volume point toward more exposure-driven activity than actual trading. Often, this scenario indicates that traders are looking to short Bitcoin’s price.
However, according to data from on-chain analytics platform Datamish.com, the ratio of percent longs to short is almost at its highest level in 2020. This trend suggests that traders expect that Bitcoin still has room for more upside. Joe DiPasquale, the CEO of crypto hedge fund BitBull Capital, told Cointelegraph that the high OI points toward traders expecting an impending uptick in volatility:
“At this time, Bitcoin is at a critical level. If it holds above $11,000 for a week or so, we can expect further appreciation. However, it will only be around $15K that we can expect actual retail FOMO and the possibility of a parabolic advance.”
For Adam Todd, the CEO of crypto derivatives exchange Digitex Futures, the rising OI means more money flowing into the Bitcoin futures market. In a conversation with Cointelegraph, Todd stated: “Generally, a rise in open interest means that the price will also rise as new money comes into the market.” Rising open interest amid declining volume also points to traders electing to adopt longer holding periods. With Bitcoin price volatility dropping to all-time lows before this current surge, short-term funds would have become unprofitable.
Crypto derivatives trading in numbers: First half of 2020
The rising OI for CME and Bakkt is one of the many indications of increasing institutional activity in Bitcoin and crypto in general. Grayscale, the largest cryptocurrency hedge fund, has recently seen its total assets under management top the $5-billion mark.
Indeed, Grayscale’s AUM grew by about $500 million in barely a week to add to the over $1.4-billion surge recorded in the first half of 2020. While the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is still the overwhelmingly dominant product in the company’s catalog, Litecoin (LTC) shares have grown over the past month, which indicates some institutional appetite for the seventh-largest crypto by market capitalization. The surge in Litecoin share ownership coincided with LTC keeping up with Bitcoin’s price gains even as other altcoins saw red. Commenting on the prospects of greater institutional involvement in Bitcoin, Todd remarked:
“I think that Bitcoin’s recent breakout, especially at a time when traditional markets are so uncertain, will certainly cause more institutional investors to take a second, third or even fourth look at adding BTC to their portfolios. However, institutions will likely wait for a price correction, unlike retail investors they are not going to chase a rally.”
Bitcoin options OI also on the rise
Apart from futures, the OI for Bitcoin options has also seen a similar increase. Of the $2.2 billion in total open interest for BTC options, Deribit accounts for $1.79 billion, which amounts to an 80% dominance of the market. Again, as is the case with the futures arena, the rising OI for BTC options is happening alongside a decline in trading volume. Apart from dominating the Bitcoin options OI, Deribit also controls over 90% of the market’s trading volume, up from the 60% dominance achieved in Q2 2020.
Data from Skew shows the Bitcoin options put/call ratio, or PCR, is beginning to climb steadily. A rising PCR typically indicates bullish sentiments, and at 0.63, traders appear to be expecting more upside for BTC. However, when PCR begins to approach the 1.0 mark, a contrarian interpretation usually forms for the indicator, as high PCR values usually front-run the emergence of bearish sentiments as seen in May before the halving event. Leading up to the 2020 halving, the Bitcoin options PCR rose to 0.81, its highest level in 2020. A few days later, BTC experienced a retrace from $10,000 to the $8,600 price level.
A similar situation occurred the last time the BTC options PCR nearly reached 1.0, which was in late June 2019. Bitcoin went on a downward slide for the second half of 2019, ending the year at $7,300. If the trend holds, then the current upward price action could be interrupted by a significant pullback. According to DiPasquale, such a retrace is to be expected:
“Nearly all quick surges are followed by pullbacks, which are healthy for market action since profit-taking allows investors/traders to take breaks, and new capital can enter the market as floors are established. At the moment, the zone between $10,000 and $10,500 presents a solid support zone for any pullbacks.”
The 106,000 BTC (~$1.2 billion) in Bitcoin futures and options that expired on July 31 might also have some impact on the price action in Q3 2020. For Bitcoin options, over $1.4 billion in aggregate open interest is still available to trade in August and September.
With Bitcoin breaking from its sideways accumulation, crypto derivatives trading might see a resurgence in Q3 2020. According to the TokenInsight report, cryptocurrency derivatives trading topped $2 trillion for the second quarter in a row, resulting in “a year-on-year increase of 165.56% from the second quarter of 2019.”
With $2.159 trillion in volume, crypto derivatives accounted for about 27.4% of the total cryptocurrency trading market, as reported by TokenInsight. Despite the lull in price action for about half of the period, the crypto derivatives niche still saw a marginal increase while spot volume fell 18%.
Uncategorized
Comments on February Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the …
Share this:
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in February to 83.5% from 83.3% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in February.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 million from 4.42 million in February. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.203 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.277 million the previous month.
This is close to pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
| Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
| 1 | 2019 | 100 |
| 2 | 1990 | 48 |
| 3 | 2007 | 46 |
| 4 | 1979 | 45 |
| 5 | 20241 | 38 |
| 6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
| 6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
| 9 | 1967 | 29 |
| 10 | 1995 | 25 |
| 1Currrent Streak | ||
Summary:
The headline monthly jobs number was above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%. Another solid report.
Uncategorized
Immune cells can adapt to invading pathogens, deciding whether to fight now or prepare for the next battle
When faced with a threat, T cells have the decision-making flexibility to both clear out the pathogen now and ready themselves for a future encounter.
Share this:
How does your immune system decide between fighting invading pathogens now or preparing to fight them in the future? Turns out, it can change its mind.
Every person has 10 million to 100 million unique T cells that have a critical job in the immune system: patrolling the body for invading pathogens or cancerous cells to eliminate. Each of these T cells has a unique receptor that allows it to recognize foreign proteins on the surface of infected or cancerous cells. When the right T cell encounters the right protein, it rapidly forms many copies of itself to destroy the offending pathogen.
Importantly, this process of proliferation gives rise to both short-lived effector T cells that shut down the immediate pathogen attack and long-lived memory T cells that provide protection against future attacks. But how do T cells decide whether to form cells that kill pathogens now or protect against future infections?
We are a team of bioengineers studying how immune cells mature. In our recently published research, we found that having multiple pathways to decide whether to kill pathogens now or prepare for future invaders boosts the immune system’s ability to effectively respond to different types of challenges.
Fight or remember?
To understand when and how T cells decide to become effector cells that kill pathogens or memory cells that prepare for future infections, we took movies of T cells dividing in response to a stimulus mimicking an encounter with a pathogen.
Specifically, we tracked the activity of a gene called T cell factor 1, or TCF1. This gene is essential for the longevity of memory cells. We found that stochastic, or probabilistic, silencing of the TCF1 gene when cells confront invading pathogens and inflammation drives an early decision between whether T cells become effector or memory cells. Exposure to higher levels of pathogens or inflammation increases the probability of forming effector cells.
Surprisingly, though, we found that some effector cells that had turned off TCF1 early on were able to turn it back on after clearing the pathogen, later becoming memory cells.
Through mathematical modeling, we determined that this flexibility in decision making among memory T cells is critical to generating the right number of cells that respond immediately and cells that prepare for the future, appropriate to the severity of the infection.
Understanding immune memory
The proper formation of persistent, long-lived T cell memory is critical to a person’s ability to fend off diseases ranging from the common cold to COVID-19 to cancer.
From a social and cognitive science perspective, flexibility allows people to adapt and respond optimally to uncertain and dynamic environments. Similarly, for immune cells responding to a pathogen, flexibility in decision making around whether to become memory cells may enable greater responsiveness to an evolving immune challenge.
Memory cells can be subclassified into different types with distinct features and roles in protective immunity. It’s possible that the pathway where memory cells diverge from effector cells early on and the pathway where memory cells form from effector cells later on give rise to particular subtypes of memory cells.
Our study focuses on T cell memory in the context of acute infections the immune system can successfully clear in days, such as cold, the flu or food poisoning. In contrast, chronic conditions such as HIV and cancer require persistent immune responses; long-lived, memory-like cells are critical for this persistence. Our team is investigating whether flexible memory decision making also applies to chronic conditions and whether we can leverage that flexibility to improve cancer immunotherapy.
Resolving uncertainty surrounding how and when memory cells form could help improve vaccine design and therapies that boost the immune system’s ability to provide long-term protection against diverse infectious diseases.
Kathleen Abadie was funded by a NSF (National Science Foundation) Graduate Research Fellowships. She performed this research in affiliation with the University of Washington Department of Bioengineering.
Elisa Clark performed her research in affiliation with the University of Washington (UW) Department of Bioengineering and was funded by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (NSF-GRFP) and by a predoctoral fellowship through the UW Institute for Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine (ISCRM).
Hao Yuan Kueh receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.
stimulus covid-19 yuan vaccine stimulusGovernment
President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”
President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"
Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…
Share this:
Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.
Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?
Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...
-
Fund Ukraine.
-
Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.
-
Abortion is good.
-
American Economy is stronger than ever.
-
Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.
-
Illegals are Americans too.
-
Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.
-
Trump is bad.
-
Biden stands with trans-children.
-
J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.
(h/t @TCDMS99)
Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:
"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."
Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."
"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"
And concluded:
“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”
Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:
"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) March 8, 2024
* * *
Watch SOTU Live here...
* * *
Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address."
On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.
The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.
He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.
Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.
As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:
-
Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant
-
It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.
Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.
On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.
Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.
But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.
Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.
The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.
In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.
In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.
If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.
It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.
* * *
The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress.
President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.
The state of our union under President Biden: three years of decline. pic.twitter.com/Da1KOIb3eR
— Speaker Mike Johnson (@SpeakerJohnson) March 7, 2024
According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:
Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.
Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.
Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.
An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.
Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address:
The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.
Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.
Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion.
It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so
Maybe this is why?
Most Americans are still unaware that the census counts ALL people, including illegal immigrants, for deciding how many House seats each state gets!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 7, 2024
This results in Dem states getting roughly 20 more House seats, which is another strong incentive for them not to deport illegals.
While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans.
"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN.
Not a very capable social media team...
The State of Confusion https://t.co/C31mHc5ABJ
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 7, 2024
The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023.
"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."
The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps.
BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most.
As well as...
We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published.
Fuck it. We’ll do it live! Thursday night, March 7, our live response to Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech. pic.twitter.com/V0UwOrgKvz
— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) March 6, 2024
EyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire
Watch Live: President Biden Reminds Americans Just How Good They’ve Got It Thanks To Him
Watch: President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”
Is the biotech market rally real? Data suggest comeback in private, public markets
The Digest #187
People Who Received Ivermectin Were Better Off, Study Finds
Interest rates, the best it gets. It’s time to deploy cash
Redefining Poverty: Towards a Transpartisan Approach
Catastrophic Risk: Investing and Business Implications
COVID-19 May Lead To Persistent Cognitive Impairment, Brain Fog, And Lower IQ Scores
-
Uncategorized2 weeks agoAll Of The Elements Are In Place For An Economic Crisis Of Staggering Proportions
-
Uncategorized1 month agoCathie Wood sells a major tech stock (again)
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoCalifornia Counties Could Be Forced To Pay $300 Million To Cover COVID-Era Program
-
Uncategorized2 weeks agoApparel Retailer Express Moving Toward Bankruptcy
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoIndustrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January
-
Government1 month agoWar Delirium
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoRFK Jr: The Wuhan Cover-Up & The Rise Of The Biowarfare-Industrial Complex
-
Uncategorized3 weeks agoGOP Efforts To Shore Up Election Security In Swing States Face Challenges