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Yes, fireworks prices are skyrocketing, but there should be plenty of bottle rockets and sparklers for you and your family this Fourth of July

The latest data shows imports of bottle rockets, sparklers and other fireworks at a record pace, even as consumer demand appears likely to wane. That could…

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2 years ago

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Many cities, such as New York, returned to hosting big public displays in 2021 after skipping 2020 due to the pandemic. AP Photo/John Minchillo

If you’re looking forward to shooting off bottle rockets and Roman candles this Fourth of July, I’ve got good news and bad news.

The bad is that fireworks prices are soaring this year along with pretty much everything else. The good news, however, is that at least you don’t need to worry about a shortage - there should be plenty of rockets, fountains and sparklers to go around.

I’m an economist who has been following the fireworks industry for years. Despite soaring wholesale prices, I believe the latest data suggests you may be able to beat inflation and snag some fireworks deals - if you’re patient.

Fireworks imports at a record

Fireworks were first invented in China over 2,000 years ago. Today, that’s where most of the world’s fireworks still come from.

China has been responsible for 87% of the world’s fireworks exports since 2010. Much of these are low-priced mass market products, like firecrackers and Roman candles, the kind you’ll find at your local fireworks store.

In the U.S., regular people – as opposed to professional pyrotechnicians – typically light off the most fireworks around the Fourth of July, and so businesses import large amounts well in advance of the holiday to ensure a large supply.

The U.S. imported 185 million pounds of fireworks, mostly from China, in the first four months of 2022, the latest data available. That’s already 27% ahead of last year’s record pace. And this doesn’t even include figures for May and June, the two months that usually account for the biggest volumes in a typical year.

The figures include about 5.5 million pounds of fireworks for professional displays - which means that all but about 3% of these imports are intended for private consumer use. The 179 million pounds aimed at consumers already equates to over half a pound of fireworks for every man, woman and child living in the U.S - with more on the way. In all of 2021, the U.S. imported a record 1.25 pounds of fireworks per person.

More expensive fireworks for the expansive public displays cities typically put on come from countries like the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Poland and the U.S.

American manufacturers, which produce an estimated 6.7 million pounds of fireworks a year, focus on designing the more sophisticated rockets for big public displays, and often help orchestrate them.

Consumer demand likely to fall

But there’s reason to believe consumer demand might actually be lower than usual this year.

In 2020, most public displays were canceled to avoid encouraging large crowds that might spread the coronavirus. As a result, Americans were lighting off a lot more fireworks in backyards and city streets than usual - often illegally.

Public displays began returning in 2021, and more are expected in 2022. That’s translating into a surge of professional fireworks imports, though they still remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

But the return of large displays will likely reduce demand from more casual users since it is hard to go to a professional show and light off lots of small fireworks at the same time. And severe drought in large swaths of the U.S. should further damp consumer demand as officials urge cities to restrict the use of fireworks to avoid sparking wildfires.

That means prices should … rise?

Basic economics tells us that when supply is high and demand is low, prices should go down. The data available suggests otherwise, thanks to the fastest pace of inflation in over 40 years.

Importers paid an average of US$1.30 per pound for fireworks in the first four months of the year, a 15% increase from 2021 - or close to double the overall rate of inflation.

Unfortunately, the consumer price index doesn’t have detailed data on the cost people are actually shelling out for retail fireworks. But there is data on the price producers are paying for explosives, propellants and blasting accessories, which include fireworks. The latest data, for May 2022, shows prices were up 11% from a year earlier.

And there’s reason to believe the amount retailers ultimately charge for fireworks will go up even more after factoring in the soaring cost of transporting goods, higher insurance premiums and rising labor costs.

Be patient and stay safe

It seems likely that retailers beleaguered by pandemic-related supply chain problems in everything from coins and toilet paper to baby formula and even Grape-Nuts cereal simply placed big fireworks orders as early as they could.

But I think it’s likely that this will lead to a glut in supply, and fireworks peddlers will be saddled with too many rockets for too little demand and may have to eventually lower the price to entice inflation-weary consumers.

So if you’re planning to shoot off fireworks as part of your Fourth of July celebrations, there’s probably no need to hoard them the way many people stocked up on toilet paper or baby formula. In fact, you might benefit from waiting and taking advantage of better deals closer to July 4.

One note of caution, though: Use common sense when lighting your rockets and candles, especially if children are around. Thousands of people in the U.S. are injured from fireworks every year, and some even die. Per-capita injuries spiked during the pandemic after decades of declines.

It’s also smart to pay attention to how fireworks affect nearby pets and take some precautions to protect them.

Whether you are lighting fireworks, watching them illuminate the night sky or just hiding from the noise, I wish all of you a happy Independence Day.

Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Angry Shouting Aside, Here’s What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union…

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3 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Angry Shouting Aside, Here's What Biden Is Running On

Last night, Joe Biden gave an extremely dark, threatening, angry State of the Union address - in which he insisted that the American economy is doing better than ever, blamed inflation on 'corporate greed,' and warned that Donald Trump poses an existential threat to the republic.

But in between the angry rhetoric, he also laid out his 2024 election platform - for which additional details will be released on March 11, when the White House sends its proposed budget to Congress.

To that end, Goldman Sachs' Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa have summarized the key points:

Taxes

While railing against billionaires (nothing new there), Biden repeated the claim that anyone making under $400,000 per year won't see an increase in their taxes.  He also proposed a 21% corporate minimum tax, up from 15% on book income outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), as well as raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28% (which would promptly be passed along to consumers in the form of more inflation). Goldman notes that "Congress is unlikely to consider any of these proposals this year, they would only come into play in a second Biden term, if Democrats also won House and Senate majorities."

Biden also called on Congress to restore the pandemic-era child tax credit.

Immigration

Instead of simply passing a slew of border security Executive Orders like the Trump ones he shredded on day one, Biden repeated the lie that Congress 'needs to act' before he can (translation: send money to Ukraine or the US border will continue to be a sieve).

As immigration comes into even greater focus heading into the election, we continue to expect the Administration to tighten policy (e.g., immigration has surged 20pp the last 7 months to first place with 28% in Gallup’s “most important problem” survey). As such, we estimate the foreign-born contribution to monthly labor force growth will moderate from 110k/month in 2023 to around 70-90k/month in 2024. -GS

Ukraine

Biden, with House Speaker Mike Johnson doing his best impression of a bobble-head, urged Congress to pass additional assistance for Ukraine based entirely on the premise that Russia 'won't stop' there (and would what, trigger article 5 and WW3 no matter what?), despite the fact that Putin explicitly told Tucker Carlson he has no further ambitions, and in fact seeks a settlement.

As Goldman estimates, "While there is still a clear chance that such a deal could come together, for now there is no clear path forward for Ukraine aid in Congress."

China

Biden, forgetting about all the aggressive tariffs, suggested that Trump had been soft on China, and that he will stand up "against China's unfair economic practices" and "for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait."

Healthcare

Lastly, Biden proposed to expand drug price negotiations to 50 additional drugs each year (an increase from 20 outlined in the IRA), which Goldman said would likely require bipartisan support "even if Democrats controlled Congress and the White House," as such policies would likely be ineligible for the budget "reconciliation" process which has been used in previous years to pass the IRA and other major fiscal party when Congressional margins are just too thin.

So there you have it. With no actual accomplishments to speak of, Biden can only attack Trump, lie, and make empty promises.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 18:00

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United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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11 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

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11 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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