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Will The Democrat Abortion Narrative Work In 2024?

Will The Democrat Abortion Narrative Work In 2024?

Authored by Stu Cvrk via The Epoch Times,

‘Tis election season, and the political narratives…

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Will The Democrat Abortion Narrative Work In 2024?

Authored by Stu Cvrk via The Epoch Times,

‘Tis election season, and the political narratives are flying everywhere...

Let us examine the 2024 Democrat political narrative surrounding abortion, including efforts to leverage the 2022 Dobbs decision by the U.S. Supreme Court that overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that has roiled American politics for 50-plus years and counting.

Abortion on Demand as a Political Weapon

On March 14, Vice President Kamala Harris visited a Planned Parenthood clinic in Minnesota, “marking what her office said was the first time a president or vice president has toured a facility that performs abortions,” as reported by the Associated Press. The article correctly points out that this represents an escalation of the “[Democrats’] defense of reproductive rights” political narrative this year.

Buried in that article was a reference to President Joe Biden. The practicing Catholic is cited as using the phrase “right to choose” as opposed to actually using the word “abortion” when discussing the issue on which the U.S. Constitution is silent.

Regardless of the euphemism used, President Biden, Ms. Harris, and other elected Democrats support unlimited abortions, and they apparently mean to ride that narrative all the way to November, because they apparently still believe that the 2024 election will be decided by “pro-choice” suburban women who helped make the difference in 2020.

The Wrong Horse

There are big problems with that political strategy. First of all, a March 12 Rasmussen poll revealed that “economic issues and immigration matter more to voters than abortion.” This should come as no surprise to anyone, because single-issue pro-abortion voters are generally going to vote Democrat anyway.

The problem with the claim of the nonavailability of abortion providers is that the pro-abortion Guttmacher Institute reported back in January that the “Number of Abortions in the United States [Is] Likely to Be Higher in 2023 than in 2020.” That means that there were more abortions per annum after the Dobbs decision than when Roe v. Wade was the “law of the land.”

[Note: the abortion numbers from Guttmacher were 930,000 performed in 2020, with 878,000 performed in the first 10 months of 2023, which, when the November and December totals at around 88,000 per month are added, would greatly exceed 2020.]

The Right Horses

Other issues subordinate abortion in Americans’ priorities.

As the Heritage Foundation headlined on March 12, “Biden’s Border Crisis Comes to the Suburbs.” The article noted that “Biden’s immigration-driven crime wave is now arriving in America’s suburbs and small towns with devastating results” while noting that, regardless of the total number, “every single crime committed by an illegal immigrant is totally preventable.”

Illegal immigrant crime victimhood is not an elective action for suburbanites while abortion certainly is —and the polls reflect that uncomfortable fact for Democrats as open borders continues to be an issue of great concern to most Americans.

President Biden suspended the Department of Homeland Security’s enforcement of U.S. immigration laws in January 2021, which initiated the 64 policies recently detailed by U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson that have created the ongoing open border crisis. President Biden could easily reverse all of those policies with the stroke of a pen, yet he refuses to do so by claiming that Congress needs to pass a border bill before he can act.

Another major political issue that is sidestepped by Democrats is inflation as a direct result of “Bidenomics.” A February article by Reason described Bidenomics as a political messaging strategy that included the following facets: “pandemic aid, industrial policy, handouts for labor unions and public workers ... [that] could be reduced to a single, overriding response: government spending.”

Trillions of dollars of federal government stimulus spending resulted in a year-over-year inflation rate that peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022, which was the highest rate experienced in the United States in over 40 years. Inflation remains stubbornly high as the Federal Reserve interest rate manipulations have consistently missed the inflation target of 2 percent because government spending continues unabated.

Zerohedge reported on March 12 that the year-on-year U.S. Consumer Price Index was 3.2 percent, which was more than expected. Zerohedge further noted that “consumer prices have not fallen in a single month” during Biden’s presidency. And Americans feel that pain at the grocery store and elsewhere throughout the Biden economy.

Concluding Thoughts

Political narrative-shifting to abortion and away from the economy, inflation, and the open border would appear to be a losing strategy, but then abortion has been a litmus test for Democrat politicians for years. Most Democrat voters are pro-abortion, and the strategy seems to be more about shoring up the fracturing Democrat base than persuading independents and others to vote Democrat this year.

The problem for Democrats is that they apparently misunderstand the changing voter demographics in 2024. Inflation affects Gen Z and blue-collar workers far more than Democrat consultants and pollsters, who are from a different class than those people and don’t directly experience the adverse effects.

One result, a Harvard CAPS–Harris survey determined that 64 percent of the Gen Z respondents (ages 18-24) approved of Donald Trump’s job as president because the contrast between the Trump and Biden presidencies is clear with respect to the economy and inflation.

Furthermore, The New York Times recently reported the growing shift of Latinos toward Trump. Of even greater concern to Democrats is the rightward shift of black Americans. The Washington Post reported on a February Gallup poll that must have shocked many Democrats. According to the poll, black Americans in 2020 were “66 points more likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans,” but that spread had decreased to only 47 points in 2023.

Key voter demographics are shaping up to be much different in 2024 than those in 2016 and 2020. The Democrats appear to be losing their traditional base of minority and younger generation voters because they don’t seem to have a political narrative that resonates with them on the open border or inflation. And that is a real problem, because the abortion narrative is a lower priority this year.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/24/2024 - 22:10

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Researchers carry out first peer-reviewed study of fecal microbiota transplants in dolphins

Scientists have successfully carried out pioneering fecal microbiota transplantations on Navy bottlenose dolphins that showed signs of gastrointestinal…

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Scientists have successfully carried out pioneering fecal microbiota transplantations on Navy bottlenose dolphins that showed signs of gastrointestinal disease.

Credit: U.S.Navy

Scientists have successfully carried out pioneering fecal microbiota transplantations on Navy bottlenose dolphins that showed signs of gastrointestinal disease.

One dolphin in particular who was outwardly ill was able to be taken off medication during the treatment course, with his appetite and energy returning to normal, according to the team at the National Marine Mammal Foundation.

The project was carried out jointly between the NMMF, the U.S. Navy Marine Mammal Program and the Gilbert Lab at UCSD School of Medicine and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, and its findings were published in the Journal of Applied Microbiology, an Applied Microbiology International publication.

Bottlenose dolphins with evidence of gastrointestinal disease were treated with fecal microbiota transplantations, and the changes to their gut microbiome were analyzed using metagenomic sequencing, corresponding author Dr Barb Linnehan said.

First of its kind

The paper is the first of its kind to describe the use of fecal microbiota transplants (FMTs) in dolphins in peer-reviewed literature. Prior to this work, there were only a handful of anecdotal cases of FMT use in marine mammals and there were no standardized methods to safely screen donors, effectively administer, or monitor its efficacy.

“This work is important to the veterinary community because it highlights a therapeutic option other than antibiotics to effectively treat gastrointestinal diseases in cetaceans, and describes a safe and effective protocol to alter the gut microbiome in animals with dysbiosis,” Dr Linnehan said.

“It was important to us to be as thorough and careful as possible to ensure safety of the dolphins as our top priority.

“In an effort to continually advance marine mammal medicine, we conducted this pilot project, pushing the boundaries in an area that had not been rigorously explored yet. There are numerous applications of FMTs beyond gastrointestinal disease, and this therapy holds so many future possibilities to investigate.”

Non-antibiotic option

Gastrointestinal disease is common in many animals, including wild and managed dolphins, and FMTs offer a non-antibiotic option aimed at restoring beneficial gut flora in dysbiotic animals. While FMT literature abounds in the human medical realm, there are only a handful of veterinary FMT studies published to date, across a variety of species.

The conception of this project was a collaboration between Dr. Maureen Carroll, a veterinary internal medicine doctor, and Dr. Barb Linnehan, a marine mammal veterinarian who was mentored by Dr. Carroll during her veterinary internship. At Angell Animal Medical Center in Boston, Dr. Carroll frequently uses FMTs to treat dogs with GI illnesses with great success.

When Dr. Linnehan was treating a Navy dolphin with dysbiosis, she reached out to Dr. Carroll to help extrapolate an FMT protocol for use in dolphins, based on the human and veterinary standards.

The first Navy dolphin who was treated with FMTs showed significant improvement and no longer required medications to manage GI illness. The success of this first pilot case is what led to this clinical project in collaboration with the Gilbert Lab, to more formally evaluate the science behind the dolphin FMTs.

Gut flora

The team first measured the baseline bacterial composition of dolphin fecal samples prior to any FMT treatments.

“We compared the gut flora from recipient dolphins, with histories of early antibiotic use and gastrointestinal disease, to the gut flora of the healthy donor dolphins,” Dr Linnehan said.

“With metagenomic analysis and comparison of these two groups of dolphins, we were interested to see if there was a distinct profile of a healthy dolphin gut microbiome versus a sick dolphin gut microbiome.

“We were surprised at this stage to see that each dolphin varied widely, and there was not a clear pattern in species present or abundances of certain species of microbes that described sick vs healthy dolphins – each dolphin was unique in microbial composition.

“However, there were also common ‘core’ microbial members that were found across a majority of the dolphins, including an unexpected strain from the bacterial phylum Candidatus Kryptonia which is typically associated with geothermal spring environments.”

Eight treatments

The researchers then performed eight FMT treatments on four recipient dolphins by combining thoroughly screened feces from healthy donor dolphins and giving it to the recipient dolphins trans-rectally.

“Importantly, we saw no adverse effects in the recipients. With shotgun metagenomics, we were also able to observe the engraftment of new donor species to the recipient microbiome following FMTs,” Dr Linnehan said.

“The degree of engraftment varied with each recipient dolphin. The dolphin who was outwardly ill at the beginning of the FMTs had the most dramatic response; he was successfully taken off of all medications and his appetite and energy returned to normal during the treatment course. The dolphin’s improved clinical outcomes coincided with increased microbial diversity following the FMT treatment.

Banking healthy feces

“During the project, we also came up with an effective protocol for banking healthy donor dolphin feces for later use. This has proven beneficial so that when an FMT is needed we have a healthy dolphin stool bank to pull from.”

This project was an important first step and building block for future studies to build upon, so that dolphin gut microbiome and FMT therapy science can advance, Dr Linnehan said.

“We’ve shown that FMTs can be done safely in dolphins and that they can be very effective in animals with gastrointestinal disease and dysbiosis,” she said.

Antimicrobial resistance

“As antimicrobial resistance and antimicrobial stewardship are hot topics in the medicine world, having this non-antimicrobial option as a therapeutic tool can be helpful for marine mammal veterinarians. These tools and techniques could also be applied to wild animals in rehabilitation settings, to include at-risk, threatened, and endangered dolphins.

“This study was just the beginning of exploring the use of FMT and microbial changes over time in the dolphin gut. As this was a small, clinical study that was disrupted by the global pandemic, future studies with larger sample sizes and over a longer time period are warranted.

“It would also be interesting to investigate gut microbiome changes with different diet composition (i.e. different fish types), during different times of year, or fluctuations with other external factors like environmental water quality. There are also numerous opportunities to investigate FMT for treatment of non-GI disorders as documented in other species, including behavioral conditions or to improve longevity.”

Marine mammals

The project was spearheaded by Dr. Barb Linnehan (veterinarian and Director of Animal Health and Welfare) at the National Marine Mammal Foundation with the help of Dr. Jack Gilbert and his laboratory team, including Sho Kodera (co-first-author, PhD student in marine biology at Scripps Institution of Oceanography). As part of the San Diego, CA based non-profit organization, the National Marine Mammal Foundation, Dr. Linnehan helps provide medical care to the U.S. Navy’s marine mammals. The Gilbert Lab is a highly interdisciplinary research group at UCSD’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the Department of Pediatrics, where they conduct research in medical and environmental microbiology, microbial ecology, and biotechnology development.

The project was funded as part of clinical care at the U.S. Navy Marine Mammal Program.

’Evaluation of the safety and efficacy of fecal microbiota transplantations in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) using metagenomic sequencing’ is published in the Journal of Applied Microbiology.

Notes to editors

1. The National Marine Mammal Foundation (NMMF) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization recognized globally as a leader in marine mammal science, medicine, and conservation. Their team of experts is answering critical questions about the health of the world’s marine mammals and the ecosystems they rely on. The NMMF has a mission to improve and protect life for marine mammals, humans, and our shared oceans through science, service, and education. They advance their mission by conducting innovative research and collaborating with the world’s top scientists and institutions to translate their research into applicable medicine and species conservation. The NMMF provides technical, medical, and scientific expertise to help solve problems related to conservation medicine, human-made environmental change, and endangered species recovery. 

2. Applied Microbiology International (AMI) is the oldest microbiology society in the UK and with more than half of its membership outside the UK, is truly global, serving microbiologists based in universities, private industry and research institutes around the world. AMI provides funding to encourage research and broad participation at its events and to ensure diverse voices are around the table working together to solve the sustainability development goals it has chosen to support. AMI publishes leading industry magazine, The Microbiologist, and in partnership with Oxford University Press, publishes three internationally acclaimed journals. It gives a voice to applied microbiologists around the world, amplifying their collective influence and informing international, evidence-based, decision making. 

3. Oxford University Press (OUP) is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. OUP is the world’s largest university press with the widest global presence. OUP publishes more than 500 academic and research journals covering a broad range of subject areas, two-thirds of which are published in collaboration with learned societies and other international organizations. It has been publishing journals for more than a century and, as the world’s largest university press, has more than 500 years of publishing expertise.


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Guest Contribution: “Monetary Policy Reaction to Geopolitical Risks: Some Nonlinear Evidence”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg) and William Ginn (LabCorp, Artificial Intelligence)….

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Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University of Strasbourg) and William Ginn (LabCorp, Artificial Intelligence).


How do geopolitical risk shocks affect monetary policy? After the global financial crisis, international trade relations have been increasingly influenced by geopolitical considerations. Indeed, it is now widely recognized that geopolitical risks and bilateral political tensions can have a strong influence on the functioning of the economy (Caldara and Iacoviello, 2022). Geopolitical risk shocks affect the economy through different channels. Some of them are inflationary, such as the commodity price channel, especially the oil price (Mignon and Saadaoui, 2024) [Econbrowser post] and the currency channel (Gopinath, 2015). Furthermore, other channels are deflationary, such as the consumer sentiment channel and the financial condition channel (Forbes and Warnock, 2012). It is difficult to determine ex-ante whether geopolitical risk shocks are inflationary or deflationary. Recent research suggests that geopolitical shocks tend to be inflationary throughout history (Caldara et al., 2022).

Based on a panel of 20 economies, William Ginn and I develop and estimate an augmented panel Taylor rule via linear and nonlinear local projections (LP) regression models. First, the linear model suggests that the interest rate remains relatively unchanged in the event of a geopolitical risk shock. Second, the result turns out to be different in the nonlinear model, where the policy reaction is muted during an expansionary state, which is operating in a manner proportional to the transitory shock. However, geopolitical risks can amplify the policy reaction during a non-expansionary period.

To consider the global impact of geopolitical risk, we use a rich data set for industrial production, consumer price index (CPI), short-term interest rate, GPR, and EPU for 20 economies that represent around 82% of global GDP to analyze the effect of GPR on interest rates. These twenty economies include the following: Brazil (BRA), Switzerland (CHE), Chile (CHL), Canada (CAN), China (CHN), Columbia (COL), Czech Republic (CZE), Euro zone (19 countries; EUR), United Kingdom (GBR), Hungary (HUN), Ireland (IRL), India (IND), Israel (ISR), Japan (JPN), Mexico (MEX), South Korea (KOR), Poland (POL), Russia (RUS), Sweden (SWE) and the United States (USA). We use monthly data that cover January 1999 to February 2022.

 

The international data for the explained and explanatory variables of the 20 economies are shown in Figure 1. In the output growth data, we can clearly see three episodes of global slowdown, namely the Internet Bubble in 2001, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009, and the pandemic in 2020. The graphs for inflation show a more dispersed situation over time and between countries, except for the global financial crisis and after the pandemic. In terms of monetary tightening and loosening, we also observe that the monetary cycles induced by the global financial crisis (easing) and after the pandemic (tightening) are the most synchronized episodes. Furthermore, Economic Policy Uncertainty is larger after the pandemic. During the most recent period, we can observe elevated levels of GPR due to the War in Ukraine. More generally, the GPR has known large spikes around 2001 due to 9/11 and after 2009 due to rising tensions between the United States and China and the election of Donald Trump, as discussed in Mignon and Saadaoui (2024).

Figure 1: International Data

 

The Taylor rule is designed to capture the reaction of central banks to deviations in inflation and output (Taylor, 1993). By examining the rule in expansionary and non-expansionary states, this research may offer insight into how central banks adjust interest rates in response to economic conditions in the presence of geopolitical shocks. The LP model, developed by Jordà (2005), is used to estimate an augmented Taylor rule based on a GPR shock. Periods marked by high GPR have potentially adverse consequences for an economy. Central banks, when implementing monetary policy, consider the prevailing economic conditions, including states of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The Taylor rule provides a framework for central banks to adjust interest rates based on economic indicators, where we test whether this adjustment can be influenced by the level of the GPR.

 

Figure 2: Linear LP model

Note: the shock is a one standard deviation shock to changes in GPR. Confidence intervals at 90%.

 

Figure 3: Non-linear LP model (Transition variable: twelve-month centered movingaverage of the output growth rate) – Baseline

Figure 4: Non-linear LP model (Transition variable: recession dummy)

 

Overall, the linear LP (Figure 2) model demonstrates a negative relationship between the monetary policy reaction and the GPR shocks, where the policy reaction declines and is statistically insignificant. The non-linear model (Figure 3 and 4) demonstrates that a GPR shock results in a muted interest rate policy response during an expansionary state. There is no policy dilemma where the interest rate response is operating in a manner that is proportional to the transitory nature of the shock and considering the effect of monetary policy comes with a lag. The impact of a GPR shock on monetary policy turns out to be different during a non-expansionary state. The findings show that the response becomes accommodative and is statistically significant for numerous periods. This last result is robust to the choice of the transition variable (GDP, OG with HP filter, dummy variables for recessions, EPU). That being said, this more accommodative monetary policy after geopolitical risk shocks is observed in the group of more independent central banks and in the group of emerging countries (Figure 5 to 8).

Figure 5: Baseline model Non-linear LP – Advanced Economies: CAN, CHE, DNK, EUR,  GBR, JPN, KOR, NOR, SWE, USA

Figure 6: Baseline model Non-linear LP – Emerging Economies:  BRA, CHL, CHN, COL, HUN, IND, ISR, MEX, POL, RUS

 

Figure 7: Baseline model Non-linear LP – More independent central banks (Central Bank Independence – Dincer and Eichengreen, 2014): CAN, CHL, EUR, HUN, MEX, NOR, RUS, SWE

Figure 8: Baseline model Non-linear LP – Less independent central banks (Central Bank Independence – Dincer and Eichengreen, 2014): CHN, COL, DNK, GBR, IND, ISR, JPN, KOR, POL, USA

 

Main references

Caldara, D., Conlisk, S., Iacoviello, M. and Penn, M. (2022), ‘Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation’, Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M. (2022), ‘Measuring geopolitical risk’, American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225.

Dincer, N. N., & Eichengreen, B. (2014), ‘Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and new measures’, International Journal of Central Banking 10(1), 189-259.

Mignon, V. and Saadaoui, J. (2024), ‘How do political tensions and geopolitical risks impact oil prices?’, Energy Economics 129, 107219.

 


*  The authors thank Menzie Chinn for a useful suggestion and Elena Pesavento for guidance on state-dependent local projections. The interested readers can find the last version of the paper on SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4762672

 


This post written by  Jamel Saadaoui and William Ginn.

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TIME To Panic: Joe Biden’s Campaign “In Trouble” Despite Obama Warning

TIME To Panic: Joe Biden’s Campaign "In Trouble" Despite Obama Warning

"Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up." -Barack…

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TIME To Panic: Joe Biden's Campaign "In Trouble" Despite Obama Warning

"Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up." -Barack Obama

With less than eight months before the 2024 election, the Biden re-election campaign is in big trouble. Not only is Biden lagging in the polls vs. Donald Trump, the border crisis he created by shredding all of Trump's Executive Orders on immigration has resulted in 10 million illegals flooding into the United States - which has left even Democrats livid.

Illustration by Klawe Rzeczy

What's more, Biden is quickly losing the support of young Americans, and the latino vote.

Things are so bad that TIME magazine has just devoted 3,700 words to let us know that Barack Obama 'warned' the Biden campaign last June that defeating Trump would be harder in 2024 (because no pandemic or hoax dossier to set him up?). Six months later, Obama 'saw few signs of improvement.'

Obama returned to the White House in December, with a 'more urgent' message: the re-election campaign was behind schedule in building out field operations, and that an 'insular group of advisers' in the West Wing was hamstringing the effort.

Now, it's really bad...

Three months later, the 2024 general election is under way, and Biden is indeed in trouble. His stubbornly low approval ratings have sunk into the high 30s, worse than those of any other recent President seeking re-election. He’s trailed or tied Trump in most head-to-head matchups for months. Voters express concerns about his policies, his leadership, his age, and his competency. The coalition that carried Biden to victory in 2020 has splintered; the Democrats’ historic advantage with Black, Latino, and Asian American voters has dwindled to lows not seen since the civil rights movement. -TIME

Meanwhile, Biden's inner circle is "defiantly sanguine" as a "fog of dread" descends on Democrats.

The rest of the TIME article is full of anecdotes of dissatisfied Democrats, particularly young voters such as 20-year-old Aidan Kohn-Murphy.

It has nothing to do, as many assume, with the President’s age. With palpable frustration, Kohn-Murphy enumerates the list of perceived policy “betrayals” as though they were “tattooed on the back of my hand.”

According to the report, GenZ voters "don’t understand why they should be compelled to cast their ballot for a candidate who has done so many things that are against their values," said Kohn-Murphy.

Losing the minority vote

In 2020, Biden carried 87% of the black vote. Now, he's polling at just 63%, a sharp decline. Meanwhile four years ago he won hispanic votes by a ratio of 2 to 1. He now trails Trump in that bloc.

Biden's support of Israel amid the Gaza war has "tanked his standing with Muslim and Arab voters," particularly in "must-win Michigan."

Overall, Biden’s advantage over Trump among nonwhite Americans has shrunk from almost 50 points in 2020 to 12, according to the latest Times/Siena poll.

"It boils down to voters of color, and those voters are pissed," said one former Biden campaign and White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "I think it’s very likely he’ll lose."

What's more, nearly two dozen senior Democratic sources told TIME that Biden's "campaign mechanics, structure, and staffing over most of the past year are partly to blame as well."

While Obama was marching to re-election over the summer of 2012, his campaign head count topped 900. Despite plans to hire 350 new staffers, the Biden campaign ended 2023 with only around 70 paid employees, according to campaign finance filings.

Biden advisers don't care about the president's dismal numbers with young and nonwhite voters, as the "Biden brain trust" thinks they'll vote for him again regardless.

"We’ve reached out to this group of nonwhite and young voters earlier than any presidential campaign ever has," according to senior adviser Becca Siegel.

Good luck with that...

Illustration by Tim O'Brien for TIME
Tyler Durden Sun, 03/24/2024 - 13:25

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