No, I don’t expect calculations by statisticians in the Commerce Department to alleviate a real world problem, but there is an important point that many of us economist types could miss. We always work with seasonally adjusted data for obvious reasons. There are normal seasonal patterns to sales and hiring that we want to remove from our data.
If we didn’t make this adjustment, our data would show us plunging into recession every fall as workers in the tourism and construction industry lose their jobs. It would look like a boom every spring as these workers began to get rehired.
So all our data tries to remove these normal seasonal developments. The adjustments still can’t account for unusual weather, like a huge snow storm in December or severe floods in the summer, but the adjustments help us to distinguish the underlying strength of the economy from what happens every year due to the changing seasons.
This can matter with respect to the supply chain backlog, because we are not moving seasonally adjusted cargo through our ports. We are moving containers of actual items. Insofar as our ports are constrained in their ability to move shipments, the constraint is not likely to change much over the various seasons.
It turns out the seasonal adjustments in retail sales are actually a big deal. I calculated implicit seasonal adjustments by comparing the ratio of unadjusted retail sales to the adjusted figures for the last pre-pandemic months. (I assume the actual adjustments used by the Commerce Department are sector specific, so the final adjustment would depend on the mix of goods being sold.)
Source: Census Bureau and author’s calculations.
As can be seen, the adjustments for November, and especially December, are downward, meaning that we expect these months to have more sales than average due to to the holiday shopping season. The adjustments for January and February are sharply upward, since sales fall off after the holiday shopping season. The adjustments imply that we expect sales in January and February to be roughly 80 percent of sales in December. This means that we should be trying to get far fewer goods through our ports right now than back in November and December. (We should already have been seeing this effect in December, since it takes some time to get goods from the ports to store shelves.)
Anyhow, this means that even if there is no reduction in demand as shown in our seasonally adjusted data, there should be some reduction in pressure on our supply chains. We’ll see how much of the backlog this will clear up.
The post Will Seasonal Adjustments Alleviate the Supply Chain Backlog? appeared first on Center for Economic and Policy Research.recession pandemic recession
Top Trending Stocks to Buy Today
A few companies have started the season off strong. Let’s examine the top trending stocks investors are excited about.
The post Top Trending Stocks to Buy Today appeared first on Investment U.
There is a ton of uncertainty in the investing world right now. First, new COVID-19 strains have turned into an ever-present threat to the entire economy. Second, many companies are still struggling with supply chain issues. Finally, analysts expect interest rates to rise at any minute. However, despite all of this turmoil, a few companies have started the season off strong. This is much-needed good news for investors. Let’s examine a few of these top trending stocks and see why investors are excited about them.
NOTE: I’m not a financial advisor and am just offering my own research and commentary. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
What Creates Top Trending Stocks?
When you hear the word “trending”, most people think of a viral social media post. These are posts that everyone is talking about and sharing with each other. Honestly, trending stocks are not that different.
There are tons of factors that could lead to a stock starting to trend. Stocks can also trend for both good and bad reasons. For example, a stock might start trending in a good way because it announced a brand new service (Walt Disney Company and Disney Plus). A stock could also start trending in a bad way because of a CEO scandal (Activision and Bobby Kotick). A stock could even start trending for reasons that have nothing to do with the company (i.e. The GameStop Short Squeeze).
The most important thing is to figure out why a stock is trending, whether the news is good or bad, and how to react to it.
For this article, I’ve focused on stocks that recently crushed their Q4 2021 earnings reports. These stocks are all trending because they are performing better than investors expected them to. Let’s take a look.
No. 4 Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE: LEVI)
Levi’s was founded in 1853. When things are looking bleak, it’s a good idea to invest in companies that have been around since 1853. They have a very proven ability to overcome tough times.
Apparently, even after 169 years, Levi’s are still in. In Q4 2021, Levi’s posted multi-decade records for revenue and profitability. Chip Bergh, President & CEO, attributed this success to a few factors. First, he praised Levi’s strong brand equity. This allows it to maintain pricing control and refrain from discounting too heavily. He also mentioned that Levi’s is expanding its direct-to-consumer business. This DTC division has much higher margins than Levi’s traditional business. It has helped to increase Levi’s profitability.
For Q4 2021, Levi’s reported revenue of $1.7 billion. This was up 22% from 2020 and 7% from 2019. Levi’s also beat both its earnings per share (EPS) expectations (2.43%) and revenue expectations (0.32%).
In more good news, Levi’s set super high growth expectations for 2022. It forecasted growth of 11-13% for next year. Chip even went so far as to say, “As good as this past year has been, I’m confident the future will be even better.”
In even more good news, Levi’s increased its dividend. This is usually the ultimate sign of security for investors. It shows that the business has so much money that it can afford to pay some back to investors. In total, Levi’s paid out $104.4 million in dividends during 2021.
No. 3 Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA)
Tesla is rarely not one of the top trending stocks. Usually, Tesla only trends because of Elon Musk and his antics. This time around, however, Tesla is trending because of very substantial news. Namely, it crushed its earnings report.
Of all industries, electric vehicles were one of the hardest hit by supply chain issues. There are so many pieces (literally) that go into building a car. These pieces are sourced from all over the globe. This leads to a massive supply chain. Additionally, the average EV uses 2,000 processing chips. This means that the EV industry also had to battle the ongoing global chip shortage. A little surprisingly, Tesla was able to navigate these issues with no problem.
In Q4 2021, Tesla produced 305,000 vehicles. It also delivered 308,000 vehicles in Q4 and 936,000 for the year. This resulted in $17.72 billion in Q4 revenue. This was enough to beat both its revenue expectations (6.49%) and EPS expectations (6.88%). In total, Tesla reported a yearly gross profit of $4.8 billion. This was a 135% year-over-year (YOY) increase.
Interestingly, Elon Musk spent a good portion of the earnings call not discussing electric cars. Instead, his focus on was a new humanoid robot called Tesla Bot. Musk described Tesla Bot as, “the most important product that Tesla is developing this year.” He sees it as a potential answer to the current labor shortage.
No. 2 ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW)
ServiceNow is a cloud computing company. It focuses on managing workflows for IT, employees, creators, and customers. Essentially, ServiceNow creates digital experiences to make life easier for your company. Out of all of the top trending stocks, ServiceNow is the most relieving. Let me explain…
In recent months, the technology sector has been beaten down. Badly. It’s been the toughest stretch for tech stocks since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Many once-popular names like Peloton, Roku, and Fiverr are down 70% or more from their all-time high. This is the case for most Nasdaq. This is why ServiceNow’s earnings report was so critical. ServiceNow sells critical software for businesses. It also works with 80% of the companies in the Fortune 500. If ServiceNow’s business was slowing down, it could be a very bad sign for the economy overall. Luckily, that wasn’t the case.
In Q4 2021, ServiceNow reported revenue of $1.5 billion. This was a 29% increase from 2020. It was also enough to beat both its revenue expectations (2.1%) and EPS expectations (0.59%). The management team at ServiceNow also expects this growth to continue into 2022. They’ve forecasted revenue growth of 26% for 2022.
This earnings beat came at the perfect time. ServiceNow is one of just a few tech stocks that has notched any green days at all lately.
Top Trending Stocks No. 1 Intel (Nasdaq: INTC)
Intel falls into a very similar category as ServiceNow. It is one of the world’s largest companies and sells a wide variety of different business solutions. Due to this, a slowdown in Intel’s business can be viewed as a bad sign for the overall economy. Luckily, Intel also just recently beat earnings. It also helps us round out this list of top trending stocks.
Intel reported Q4 revenue of $19.45 billion. This was enough to beat both revenue expectations (6.4%) and EPS expectations (19.75%). Notably, Intel trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of under 10 right now. This means that it is valued incredibly cheaply for the amount of money it makes. Most companies of Intel’s size trade at P/E ratios of closer to 20 or 30.
One reason why Intel is trading so cheaply might be due to investor uncertainty. Intel recently got a new CEO (Pat Gelsinger) in February 2021. He is currently investing heavily to help Intel increase its production capacity. The company plans to present more detailed plans on February 17, 2022. To read more on Intel, check out my Intel stock forecast.
I hope that you’ve found this article valuable in learning a few of the top trending stocks to buy. Please base all investment decisions on your own due diligence.nasdaq stocks covid-19 interest rates
Best Penny Stocks to Buy Next Month? Check These 3 Out
Can these penny stocks push up next month?
The post Best Penny Stocks to Buy Next Month? Check These 3 Out appeared first on Penny Stocks to Buy, Picks, News and Information | PennyStocks.com.
3 Penny Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist in February 2022
With February only a few days away, trading penny stocks remains extremely popular. Now, to make money with penny stocks in 2022, investors need to have a thorough understanding of what is going on in the stock market. Right now, the most pressing factors include Covid, inflation, the Fed monetary policy, and certain geopolitical tensions. And because penny stocks are so speculative, these factors all have a major and material effect on how they trade.
[Read More] Why These 3 Penny Stocks Are Exploding Today
So, when you’re making a penny stocks trading strategy, having all of these in mind will help immensely. And, your strategy should also be able to adapt to the ever changing conditions of the stock market. As we all know, trading penny stocks in 2022 is not easy. And in the past week or so, the market has been in a major downtrend. But, with a lot to look forward to regarding the future, investors are excited about the next few months. With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at three penny stocks to add to your watchlist in February 2022.
3 Penny Stocks to Watch in February 2022
- Gingko Bioworks Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DNA)
- Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP)
- Root Inc. (NASDAQ: ROOT)
Gingko Bioworks Holdings Inc. (NYSE: DNA)
Today, shares of DNA stock managed to climb by almost 7% at midday. While many large gains like this occur without news, there are a few reasons why DNA stock is climbing right now. Today, Bank of America Securities announced coverage of Gingko Bioworks, initiating a Buy rating and an $8 price target.
While price targets are simply that, they are still crucial for investors to consider. This seems to be the main reason that DNA stock is climbing right now. However, the company did make an exciting announcement a week or so ago. On January 19th, Gingko announced the acquisition of Project Beacon Covid-19 LLC. This is a Boston-based social organization that is working on increasing the availability of Covid testing in Massachusetts.
“As we embark on a new wave of the pandemic and grapple with the spread of the Omicron variant, large-scale testing will be critical to help keep kids in schools and mitigate the spread of COVID-19. ntegrating Project Beacon’s capabilities with our Concentric by Ginkgo offering will enable us to further empower communities in Massachusetts and beyond with the tools they need to make important public health decisions.”The Chief Commercial Officer of Gingko, Matt McKnight,
This is very exciting news, and any company involved in treating, diagnosing, or curing Covid-19, has come into the public eye in the past few months. So, with that in mind, will DNA stock make your list of penny stocks to watch?
Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHIP)
Today, shares of SHIP stock managed to climb by almost 12% at midday. It’s tough to say why SHIP stock is moving so heavily right now, but, it did make an exciting announcement on January 24th. On Monday, the company stated that it expects its Q4 TCE (time charter equivalent) to exceed $36,000 per ship per day. This is above the previous guidance of $35,200 per ship per day.
“As a result of our pro-active hedging strategy in 2H21, we estimate that we will overperform the current spot market rate by approximately 50% in the first quarter. Moreover, our robust EBITDA generating capacity in multiple freight environments attests to our firm belief that our shares are currently significantly undervalued.”The CEO and Chairman of Seanergy, Stamatis Tsantanis
This is great news and could be the reason that SHIP stock is moving right now. In the past five days, shares have climbed by around 16%, which is no small feat. Considering all of this, will SHIP stock be on your penny stocks watchlist next month?
Root Inc. (NASDAQ: ROOT)
Another sizable gainer of the day is ROOT stock, which shot up by over 15%. Before we get into why, it’s important to understand what Root Inc. does. The company is a provider of insurance, revolutionizing the industry through data science and technology.
[Read More] 5 Top Penny Stocks To Buy Under $5 Right Now
It works to provide customers with a personalized and fair experience in modern insurance. The big news for the company came today when it announced a new term loan facility with BlackRock Financial Management Inc. The deal, with $300 million, will provide the company with ample credit to move forward with certain operations.
“We are pleased with the successful execution of this new term facility. It accomplished several important objectives including extending our debt maturity and further enhancing our liquidity position with a partner focused on the long-term success of Root.
We are executing on a disciplined strategy to create enduring value through strong underwriting results, the development of our embedded product, and prudent capital management.”The CEO and Co-Founder of Root, Alex Timm
Specifically, this deal with carry an interest rate of around 9% and includes an issuance of warrants from Root to Blackrock equal to 2% of issued and outstanding shares. This includes an exercise price of $9 per share. This is exciting news for the company and should help to stimulate growth for it in the short and long term. Considering that, will ROOT be on your buy list in February or not?
Which Penny Stocks Are You Watching Right Now?
If you’re looking for the best penny stocks to buy, there are hundreds to choose from. While it can be complicated given the sheer number of penny stocks out there, with research on hand, it is much easier than previously imagined.
Now, to find the best penny stocks to buy, investors need to know exactly what is going on in the stock market and how to take advantage. This involves looking at the news, understanding how it may affect different industries and considering the future. With all of that in mind, which penny stocks are you watching right now?
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Is it too late to buy Visa after shares jumped 9.0% on record revenue?
Wedgewood Partners’ CIO says Visa Inc (NYSE: V) is a promising reopening stock a day after the financial services company reported record revenue for its fiscal first quarter. Rolfe’s bull case for Visa Inc Visa reported a 40% YoY increase in its…
Rolfe’s bull case for Visa Inc
Visa reported a 40% YoY increase in its quarterly cross-border volume last night that David Rolfe sees as a positive catalyst for the stock. This afternoon on CNBC’s “TechCheck”, he said:
Now that the world is opening up post-COVID-19 pandemic, the all-important cross-border revenues are coming back. On top of it, it’s a stock that’s trading at 28 times this year’s earnings and about 24 times 2023. Probably one of the most dominant business models in the world.
His outlook is similar to Gradient Investments’ Jeremy Bryan, who also expects 2022 to be a great year for Visa. The stock jumped nearly 10% this morning and wiped its entire year-to-date loss. A double-digit single-day gain is fairly unusual for Visa; seen last in April 2020.
Fintech startups are not a threat for Visa
The chief investment officer does not see the rise of fintech solutions as a threat for Visa, which is now a sizable position for his investment management company. He added:
The narrative that Visa is going to lose market share versus some of these startup fintech companies just isn’t the case. These companies are partners; they ride on Visa’s rails. Square, PayPal, Coinbase, Strip; they are all partners.
Rolfe agreed the stock was a bit on the pricier side last year, but said it’s not anymore. “V” traded at a high of about $250 in July 2021 versus $222 at present. According to Rolfe, Wedgewood Partners has been loading up on “V” in recent weeks.
La notizia Is it too late to buy Visa after shares jumped 9.0% on record revenue? era stato segnalata su Invezz.reopening pandemic covid-19
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