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Week Ahead – What next after election mayhem?

Week Ahead – What next after election mayhem?

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3 years ago

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One to remember

I think it’s safe to say, last week more than lived up to expectations. We may never see a US election like it again. What is remarkable is how relaxed traders have been throughout. And to think, this was only one of a number of major risk events between now and year-end. It’s going to be a fascinating couple of months in the markets.

A US election for the ages

UK in lockdown as Brexit talks hit critical point

Is gold heading back above $2,000?


Country

US Politics

It’s been an unforgettable week and Joe Biden is closing in on victory as he takes the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Victory may even be declared late Friday. Donald Trump isn’t going down without a fight; lawsuits are being launched in many of the swing states – mostly unsuccessfully – and Trump is continuing to make allegations of fraud. Recounts in numerous states are likely to be called as the Trump campaign continues to build its case for a Supreme Court challenge, where Conservatives outnumber Democrats six to three.

US

The Federal Reserve unsurprisingly kept its powder dry this week and announced no more easing but it did raise concerns about the economic outlook and the lack of fiscal stimulus. Many expect the central bank to announce further easing measures in December, once the election is resolved and with new economic projections to guide them. They’ll also have a better idea of how bad the Covid situation has got by then and whether any needed stimulus is forthcoming.

The jobs report was strong with 638,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 6.9% although this would have been 0.3% higher if workers classified correctly. Next week is mainly made up of tier two and three data, with the election hangover likely continuing to dominate the headlines.

EU

It’s been a low key week for the EU and next week will be no different, with a number of tier three economic data and very little else. The ECB has pushed back any stimulus to December so it’s simply a case of waiting and watching. 

Brexit

Covid aside, this remains the number one issue for the UK and EU. Talks have intensified and it’s been pretty quiet in public which is promising. Both sides clearly agreed to stop fighting this out in public and focus on finding a compromise in private. It does seem we’re edging closer to a deal, it’s just a case of when. The next week could be crucial. A collapse at this late stage would be a terrible failure from all concerned and I don’t think it’s likely now.

UK

With the country in lockdown for the next month, the economy is going to struggle. The extension of the furlough scheme until the end of March will help but with the announcement coming so late in the day, it will be too late for some. 

Still, the BoE did revise down the end of year unemployment forecast this week to 6.25% from 7.5% in August, although it also revised down growth for this year (-11% from -9.5% in August) and next (7.25% from 9%), with 2022 expected to be better (6.25% from 3.5%). It also increased its asset purchase program by £150 billion, 50% more than the market anticipated, and suggested more could come if needed, possibly reducing the prospect of negative rates.

Turkey

Immense pressure on the CBRT to hike interest rates at its next meeting on 19 November with the currency spiralling out of control, down 30% this year and 20% in the last three months alone. The central bank’s stealth tightening hasn’t gone down well and without an intervention, the pressure on the currency isn’t going to ease. 

China

China Trade Balance and FX Reserves released tomorrow. Both may slow due to the long October holiday, but it will take a big downward surprise in exports to trip up the bullish China story on Monday morning.

Ant Financial IPO forgotten within days of cancellation.

PPI Wedensday expected to fall 2.0% YoY, likely due to holiday distortions. No market effect.

Sentiment in China markets driven by the evolution of the US election situation. 

Hong Kong

ANT Financial IPO cancelled. No noticeable fallout as stocks rally on further expected easing by Fed and Presidential/Senate stalemate. 

USD/HKD remains at the bottom of its trading band with heavy buying from the HKMA. With FOMC in play in December, yield carry will keep HKD there despite unwinding of Ant Financial IPO funds by offshore investors.

GDP Friday, wide range but no direct market effect..

India

India CPI, Balance of Trade and Industrial Production on Thursday. CPI will show inflation remains high at over 7.0%. BoT will show exports falling but imports collapsing by 20%. Industrial Production remains contractionary at -3%.

In other words India is in the grip of stagflation as it wrestles with the Covid-19 pandemic/recession. INR gained little benefit from Dollar weakness and will remain a regional underperformer. Credit quality concerns and banks persist.

New Zealand 

The RBNZ meeting on Wednesday poses a serious threat to the NZ Dollar rally. RBNZ expected to cut from 0.25% to 0.10%. There is a possibility that RBNZ will go NEGATIVE rates though. RBNZ Governor Orr is an uber-dove and has publicly stated he is not afraid to use negative rates. 

Very negative NZD if RBNZ goes negative, exercise caution tracking Kiwi higher with AUD until RBNZ is done. 

Australia 

NAB and Westpac Consumer Confidences expected to ease slightly as Covid-19 reopening peace dividend fades.

AUD/USD one of world’s best FX performers as the FOMC easing, China commodity story reasserts itself as per before the US election. 

China appears to be waging a silent trade war with Australia. Effectively blocking all key exports except Iron Ore and Gas, but verbally telling importers to source elsewhere. If officially confirmed, strong negative for Australia equities and AUD, as Australia has let itself become a one trick pony. Surprisingly ignored over the past week, but will remain a major downside risk.

Japan

Reuters Tanken survey, Machinery Orders and PPI will show that Japan’s domestic outlook remains in recession and that Japan is grappling with deflation again. GDP Friday will show an improvement to -3.50% YoY but still anchored in negative territory.

Yen has rallied impressively over the last 48 hours, with USD/JPY breaking long-term support at 104.00, targeting 102.00 and 101.00. That will exacerbate deflationary pressures and will have the Government/MoF and Boj nervous. Expect a ramp-up in currency comments as USD?JPY approaches 102.00. No intervention though unless USD/JPY breaks 100.00. If the rest of Asia FX also rallies strongly, that likelihood lessens.

Markets

Oil

The crude comeback has run out of steam. It’s been a phenomenal rebound this week, just as oil prices were falling to very tricky territory but with dialogue seemingly underway to push back planned increases of two million barrels per day in January, downside pressures have significantly eased.

It’s time for OPEC+ to follow words with action though as statements earlier this week from Alexander Novak bought the group time but that will waver as Covid wreaks havoc and forces more lockdowns, weighing heavily on economic activity and demand in the coming months.

The key support levels for Brent and WTI now are once again $39 and $37, respectively. When this broke last week, the sell-off gathered pace. If it holds this time around, bulls may be encouraged. There may not be enormous upside but Brent did previously hit $44 on the expectations of delayed production increases so this level remains key. With WTI, $42 is key to the upside, but $40 could be an obstacle itself.

Gold

Gold has been really interesting over the last couple of days, bursting through near-term support and surging back above $1,950 today. The moves have been driven by a plunge in the dollar, as risk appetite has improved over the course of the week and we face the prospect of more Fed easing. 

Barring a shock twist in the election, gold may remain a favourite in the near-term as central banks turn on the taps again. The downside risk for gold is Covid and with countries going into lockdown, it remains significant. The next key levels remain unchanged, $1,980 and $2,000 to the uspide, $1,930 and $1,920 below.

Bitcoin

Another good day for bitcoin which broke back above $15,000 on Thursday for the first time since January 2018, falling just short of $16,000 today. These are remarkable gains in a very short space of time and feels reminiscent of what we were seeing late 2017 when the hype around bitcoin was incredible.

Clearly not an enormous amount has changed on that front. Central banks going back into easing mode may be the justification for some for the move, or the uncertainty around the election, but I’m not convinced. This feels like another highly speculative move and we’ve seen before, it can rise very far very fast, but the drop can be very painful indeed.

Key Economic Events

Monday, November 9th

– More Brexit trade-deal talks occur between the U.K. and EU.  Prime Minister Johnson hopes his Internal Market Bill has a satisfactory result in Parliament.

– ADIPEC, the world’s largest gathering of oil and gas industry players set to convenes for four days virtually: speakers include Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman; Russian Energy Minister Novak; UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei; and OPEC Secretary General Barkindo.

– Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Corporation of London Green Horizon Summit, in London.

– BOE Chief Economist Haldane speaks on a webinar on “The economic impact of coronavirus and long-term implications for the UK”

– ECB’s Rehn speaks with students on the Bank’s Strategy Review. The ECB’s Mersch speaks during an online event.

– Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks at a fintech conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed.

– The World Trade Organization to appoint a new leader.

– Political discussions occur between Libya’s rival parties.

– China Trade and Reserve Data released this week

Economic Data

Mexico CPI

Malaysia industrial production

Germany trade balance

Euro-area Sentix investor confidence

Japan leading index

Tuesday, Nov. 10

– Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles speaks with the Senate Banking Committee to discuss oversight of the SEC. Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks to the Council on Foreign Relations.

– EU targets the imposition of nearly $4 billion in tariffs on US goods in retaliation over illegal aid to Boeing Co.

– ECB’s Knot and Boston Fed President Rosengren speak at a UBS conference

– Apple hosts “One More Thing” event. Reveals processors designed by Apple, replacing the Intel chips.

Economic Data

US NFIB small business optimism, JOLTS job openings

Japan current account balance

Australia business confidence

China CPI, PPI

CPI: Hungary, Czech

UK labor jobless claims and Claimant Count Rate

Industrial production: France, Italy

Germany ZEW index: Expectations Survey: 45.0e v 56.1 prior; Current Situation: -65.0e v -59.5 prior

Turkey unemployment

South Africa manufacturing production

Wednesday, November 11th

– US Veterans Day holiday

– Alibaba has its annual Singles’ Day

– ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.

– Riksbank Governor Ingves’s press conference on the central bank’s stability report.

– OPEC monthly Oil Market Report released.

Economic Data

Mexico industrial production

South Korea unemployment rate

Australia consumer confidence

New Zealand rate decision: Expected to keep Cash Rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintain pace of QE bond purchases

Romania CPI

Turkey current-account balance

Japan machine tool orders

Thursday, November 12th

– ECB President Christine Lagarde, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are among the speakers at an online ECB Forum entitled “Central Banks in a Shifting World.” Through Nov. 12.

– Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at a Detroit community forum.

– Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins gives a speech via video conference.

– The BOE’s Andrew Bailey speaks at the FT Global Boardroom conference.

– EIA crude oil inventory report

Economic Data

US Oct CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior; initial jobless claims, Treasury budget statement

Mexico rate decision: Analysts are split, could keep rates steady or cut by 25bps

Japan PPI, core machine orders

India CPI, industrial production, trade

UK Q3 Prelim GDP Q/Q: 15.8% v -19.8% prior; RICS house-price index

South Africa unemployment, mining production

Israel trade balance

Norway GDP

Friday, November 13th

– Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 hold an extraordinary meeting to discuss bolder action to help poor nations struggling to repay their debts.

– St. Louis Fed President Bullard will discuss monetary policy in a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of Memphis.

– The BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at a UBS conference.

– Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speaks at the Bundesbank Listens event in Frankfurt.

– Bank of Canada releases its Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic Data

US PPI, University of Michigan sentiment

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, food prices

Turkey industrial production

GDP: Malaysia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Romania, Poland

Poland CPI

Sovereign Rating Updates

– Austria (Fitch)

– France (Fitch) 

– Iceland(S&P)

– Netherlands (S&P)

– Israel (S&P)

– Austria (Moody’s)

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Wendy’s teases new $3 offer for upcoming holiday

The Daylight Savings Time promotion slashes prices on breakfast.

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2 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Daylight Savings Time, or the practice of advancing clocks an hour in the spring to maximize natural daylight, is a controversial practice because of the way it leaves many feeling off-sync and tired on the second Sunday in March when the change is made and one has one less hour to sleep in.

Despite annual "Abolish Daylight Savings Time" think pieces and online arguments that crop up with unwavering regularity, Daylight Savings in North America begins on March 10 this year.

Related: Coca-Cola has a new soda for Diet Coke fans

Tapping into some people's very vocal dislike of Daylight Savings Time, fast-food chain Wendy's  (WEN)  is launching a daylight savings promotion that is jokingly designed to make losing an hour of sleep less painful and encourage fans to order breakfast anyway.

Wendy's has recently made a big push to expand its breakfast menu.

Image source: Wendy's.

Promotion wants you to compensate for lost sleep with cheaper breakfast

As it is also meant to drive traffic to the Wendy's app, the promotion allows anyone who makes a purchase of $3 or more through the platform to get a free hot coffee, cold coffee or Frosty Cream Cold Brew.

More Food + Dining:

Available during the Wendy's breakfast hours of 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (which, naturally, will feel even earlier due to Daylight Savings), the deal also allows customers to buy any of its breakfast sandwiches for $3. Items like the Sausage, Egg and Cheese Biscuit, Breakfast Baconator and Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant normally range in price between $4.50 and $7.

The choice of the latter is quite wide since, in the years following the pandemic, Wendy's has made a concerted effort to expand its breakfast menu with a range of new sandwiches with egg in them and sweet items such as the French Toast Sticks. The goal was both to stand out from competitors with a wider breakfast menu and increase traffic to its stores during early-morning hours.

Wendy's deal comes after controversy over 'dynamic pricing'

But last month, the chain known for the square shape of its burger patties ignited controversy after saying that it wanted to introduce "dynamic pricing" in which the cost of many of the items on its menu will vary depending on the time of day. In an earnings call, chief executive Kirk Tanner said that electronic billboards would allow restaurants to display various deals and promotions during slower times in the early morning and late at night.

Outcry was swift and Wendy's ended up walking back its plans with words that they were "misconstrued" as an intent to surge prices during its most popular periods.

While the company issued a statement saying that any changes were meant as "discounts and value offers" during quiet periods rather than raised prices during busy ones, the reputational damage was already done since many saw the clarification as another way to obfuscate its pricing model.

"We said these menuboards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items," Wendy's said in its statement. "This was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants."

The Daylight Savings Time promotion, in turn, is also a way to demonstrate the kinds of deals Wendy's wants to promote in its stores without putting up full-sized advertising or posters for what is only relevant for a few days.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the…

Published

3 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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Shipping company files surprise Chapter 7 bankruptcy, liquidation

While demand for trucking has increased, so have costs and competition, which have forced a number of players to close.

Published

4 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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The U.S. economy is built on trucks.

As a nation we have relatively limited train assets, and while in recent years planes have played an expanded role in moving goods, trucks still represent the backbone of how everything — food, gasoline, commodities, and pretty much anything else — moves around the country.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

"Trucks moved 61.1% of the tonnage and 64.9% of the value of these shipments. The average shipment by truck was 63 miles compared to an average of 640 miles by rail," according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2023 numbers.

But running a trucking company has been tricky because the largest players have economies of scale that smaller operators don't. That puts any trucking company that's not a massive player very sensitive to increases in gas prices or drops in freight rates.

And that in turn has led a number of trucking companies, including Yellow Freight, the third-largest less-than-truckload operator; J.J. & Sons Logistics, Meadow Lark, and Boateng Logistics, to close while freight brokerage Convoy shut down in October.

Aside from Convoy, none of these brands are household names. but with the demand for trucking increasing, every company that goes out of business puts more pressure on those that remain, which contributes to increased prices.

Demand for trucking has continued to increase.

Image source: Shutterstock

Another freight company closes and plans to liquidate

Not every bankruptcy filing explains why a company has gone out of business. In the trucking industry, multiple recent Chapter 7 bankruptcies have been tied to lawsuits that pushed otherwise successful companies into insolvency.

In the case of TBL Logistics, a Virginia-based national freight company, its Feb. 29 bankruptcy filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Virginia appears to be death by too much debt.

"In its filing, TBL Logistics listed its assets and liabilities as between $1 million and $10 million. The company stated that it has up to 49 creditors and maintains that no funds will be available for unsecured creditors once it pays administrative fees," Freightwaves reported.

The company's owners, Christopher and Melinda Bradner, did not respond to the website's request for comment.

Before it closed, TBL Logistics specialized in refrigerated and oversized loads. The company described its business on its website.

"TBL Logistics is a non-asset-based third-party logistics freight broker company providing reliable and efficient transportation solutions, management, and storage for businesses of all sizes. With our extensive network of carriers and industry expertise, we streamline the shipping process, ensuring your goods reach their destination safely and on time."

The world has a truck-driver shortage

The covid pandemic forced companies to consider their supply chain in ways they never had to before. Increased demand showed the weakness in the trucking industry and drew attention to how difficult life for truck drivers can be.

That was an issue HBO's John Oliver highlighted on his "Last Week Tonight" show in October 2022. In the episode, the host suggested that the U.S. would basically start to starve if the trucking industry shut down for three days.

"Sorry, three days, every produce department in America would go from a fully stocked market to an all-you-can-eat raccoon buffet," he said. "So it’s no wonder trucking’s a huge industry, with more than 3.5 million people in America working as drivers, from port truckers who bring goods off ships to railyards and warehouses, to long-haul truckers who move them across the country, to 'last-mile' drivers, who take care of local delivery." 

The show highlighted how many truck drivers face low pay, difficult working conditions and, in many cases, crushing debt.

"Hundreds of thousands of people become truck drivers every year. But hundreds of thousands also quit. Job turnover for truckers averages over 100%, and at some companies it’s as high as 300%, meaning they’re hiring three people for a single job over the course of a year. And when a field this important has a level of job satisfaction that low, it sure seems like there’s a huge problem," Oliver shared.

The truck-driver shortage is not just a U.S. problem; it's a global issue, according to IRU.org.

"IRU’s 2023 driver shortage report has found that over three million truck driver jobs are unfilled, or 7% of total positions, in 36 countries studied," the global transportation trade association reported. 

"With the huge gap between young and old drivers growing, it will get much worse over the next five years without significant action."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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