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Week Ahead – What next after election mayhem?

Week Ahead – What next after election mayhem?



One to remember

I think it’s safe to say, last week more than lived up to expectations. We may never see a US election like it again. What is remarkable is how relaxed traders have been throughout. And to think, this was only one of a number of major risk events between now and year-end. It’s going to be a fascinating couple of months in the markets.

A US election for the ages

UK in lockdown as Brexit talks hit critical point

Is gold heading back above $2,000?


US Politics

It’s been an unforgettable week and Joe Biden is closing in on victory as he takes the lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia. Victory may even be declared late Friday. Donald Trump isn’t going down without a fight; lawsuits are being launched in many of the swing states – mostly unsuccessfully – and Trump is continuing to make allegations of fraud. Recounts in numerous states are likely to be called as the Trump campaign continues to build its case for a Supreme Court challenge, where Conservatives outnumber Democrats six to three.


The Federal Reserve unsurprisingly kept its powder dry this week and announced no more easing but it did raise concerns about the economic outlook and the lack of fiscal stimulus. Many expect the central bank to announce further easing measures in December, once the election is resolved and with new economic projections to guide them. They’ll also have a better idea of how bad the Covid situation has got by then and whether any needed stimulus is forthcoming.

The jobs report was strong with 638,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 6.9% although this would have been 0.3% higher if workers classified correctly. Next week is mainly made up of tier two and three data, with the election hangover likely continuing to dominate the headlines.


It’s been a low key week for the EU and next week will be no different, with a number of tier three economic data and very little else. The ECB has pushed back any stimulus to December so it’s simply a case of waiting and watching. 


Covid aside, this remains the number one issue for the UK and EU. Talks have intensified and it’s been pretty quiet in public which is promising. Both sides clearly agreed to stop fighting this out in public and focus on finding a compromise in private. It does seem we’re edging closer to a deal, it’s just a case of when. The next week could be crucial. A collapse at this late stage would be a terrible failure from all concerned and I don’t think it’s likely now.


With the country in lockdown for the next month, the economy is going to struggle. The extension of the furlough scheme until the end of March will help but with the announcement coming so late in the day, it will be too late for some. 

Still, the BoE did revise down the end of year unemployment forecast this week to 6.25% from 7.5% in August, although it also revised down growth for this year (-11% from -9.5% in August) and next (7.25% from 9%), with 2022 expected to be better (6.25% from 3.5%). It also increased its asset purchase program by £150 billion, 50% more than the market anticipated, and suggested more could come if needed, possibly reducing the prospect of negative rates.


Immense pressure on the CBRT to hike interest rates at its next meeting on 19 November with the currency spiralling out of control, down 30% this year and 20% in the last three months alone. The central bank’s stealth tightening hasn’t gone down well and without an intervention, the pressure on the currency isn’t going to ease. 


China Trade Balance and FX Reserves released tomorrow. Both may slow due to the long October holiday, but it will take a big downward surprise in exports to trip up the bullish China story on Monday morning.

Ant Financial IPO forgotten within days of cancellation.

PPI Wedensday expected to fall 2.0% YoY, likely due to holiday distortions. No market effect.

Sentiment in China markets driven by the evolution of the US election situation. 

Hong Kong

ANT Financial IPO cancelled. No noticeable fallout as stocks rally on further expected easing by Fed and Presidential/Senate stalemate. 

USD/HKD remains at the bottom of its trading band with heavy buying from the HKMA. With FOMC in play in December, yield carry will keep HKD there despite unwinding of Ant Financial IPO funds by offshore investors.

GDP Friday, wide range but no direct market effect..


India CPI, Balance of Trade and Industrial Production on Thursday. CPI will show inflation remains high at over 7.0%. BoT will show exports falling but imports collapsing by 20%. Industrial Production remains contractionary at -3%.

In other words India is in the grip of stagflation as it wrestles with the Covid-19 pandemic/recession. INR gained little benefit from Dollar weakness and will remain a regional underperformer. Credit quality concerns and banks persist.

New Zealand 

The RBNZ meeting on Wednesday poses a serious threat to the NZ Dollar rally. RBNZ expected to cut from 0.25% to 0.10%. There is a possibility that RBNZ will go NEGATIVE rates though. RBNZ Governor Orr is an uber-dove and has publicly stated he is not afraid to use negative rates. 

Very negative NZD if RBNZ goes negative, exercise caution tracking Kiwi higher with AUD until RBNZ is done. 


NAB and Westpac Consumer Confidences expected to ease slightly as Covid-19 reopening peace dividend fades.

AUD/USD one of world’s best FX performers as the FOMC easing, China commodity story reasserts itself as per before the US election. 

China appears to be waging a silent trade war with Australia. Effectively blocking all key exports except Iron Ore and Gas, but verbally telling importers to source elsewhere. If officially confirmed, strong negative for Australia equities and AUD, as Australia has let itself become a one trick pony. Surprisingly ignored over the past week, but will remain a major downside risk.


Reuters Tanken survey, Machinery Orders and PPI will show that Japan’s domestic outlook remains in recession and that Japan is grappling with deflation again. GDP Friday will show an improvement to -3.50% YoY but still anchored in negative territory.

Yen has rallied impressively over the last 48 hours, with USD/JPY breaking long-term support at 104.00, targeting 102.00 and 101.00. That will exacerbate deflationary pressures and will have the Government/MoF and Boj nervous. Expect a ramp-up in currency comments as USD?JPY approaches 102.00. No intervention though unless USD/JPY breaks 100.00. If the rest of Asia FX also rallies strongly, that likelihood lessens.



The crude comeback has run out of steam. It’s been a phenomenal rebound this week, just as oil prices were falling to very tricky territory but with dialogue seemingly underway to push back planned increases of two million barrels per day in January, downside pressures have significantly eased.

It’s time for OPEC+ to follow words with action though as statements earlier this week from Alexander Novak bought the group time but that will waver as Covid wreaks havoc and forces more lockdowns, weighing heavily on economic activity and demand in the coming months.

The key support levels for Brent and WTI now are once again $39 and $37, respectively. When this broke last week, the sell-off gathered pace. If it holds this time around, bulls may be encouraged. There may not be enormous upside but Brent did previously hit $44 on the expectations of delayed production increases so this level remains key. With WTI, $42 is key to the upside, but $40 could be an obstacle itself.


Gold has been really interesting over the last couple of days, bursting through near-term support and surging back above $1,950 today. The moves have been driven by a plunge in the dollar, as risk appetite has improved over the course of the week and we face the prospect of more Fed easing. 

Barring a shock twist in the election, gold may remain a favourite in the near-term as central banks turn on the taps again. The downside risk for gold is Covid and with countries going into lockdown, it remains significant. The next key levels remain unchanged, $1,980 and $2,000 to the uspide, $1,930 and $1,920 below.


Another good day for bitcoin which broke back above $15,000 on Thursday for the first time since January 2018, falling just short of $16,000 today. These are remarkable gains in a very short space of time and feels reminiscent of what we were seeing late 2017 when the hype around bitcoin was incredible.

Clearly not an enormous amount has changed on that front. Central banks going back into easing mode may be the justification for some for the move, or the uncertainty around the election, but I’m not convinced. This feels like another highly speculative move and we’ve seen before, it can rise very far very fast, but the drop can be very painful indeed.

Key Economic Events

Monday, November 9th

– More Brexit trade-deal talks occur between the U.K. and EU.  Prime Minister Johnson hopes his Internal Market Bill has a satisfactory result in Parliament.

– ADIPEC, the world’s largest gathering of oil and gas industry players set to convenes for four days virtually: speakers include Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman; Russian Energy Minister Novak; UAE Energy Minister Mazrouei; and OPEC Secretary General Barkindo.

– Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Corporation of London Green Horizon Summit, in London.

– BOE Chief Economist Haldane speaks on a webinar on “The economic impact of coronavirus and long-term implications for the UK”

– ECB’s Rehn speaks with students on the Bank’s Strategy Review. The ECB’s Mersch speaks during an online event.

– Cleveland Fed President Mester speaks at a fintech conference hosted by the Philadelphia Fed.

– The World Trade Organization to appoint a new leader.

– Political discussions occur between Libya’s rival parties.

– China Trade and Reserve Data released this week

Economic Data

Mexico CPI

Malaysia industrial production

Germany trade balance

Euro-area Sentix investor confidence

Japan leading index

Tuesday, Nov. 10

– Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles speaks with the Senate Banking Committee to discuss oversight of the SEC. Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks to the Council on Foreign Relations.

– EU targets the imposition of nearly $4 billion in tariffs on US goods in retaliation over illegal aid to Boeing Co.

– ECB’s Knot and Boston Fed President Rosengren speak at a UBS conference

– Apple hosts “One More Thing” event. Reveals processors designed by Apple, replacing the Intel chips.

Economic Data

US NFIB small business optimism, JOLTS job openings

Japan current account balance

Australia business confidence

China CPI, PPI

CPI: Hungary, Czech

UK labor jobless claims and Claimant Count Rate

Industrial production: France, Italy

Germany ZEW index: Expectations Survey: 45.0e v 56.1 prior; Current Situation: -65.0e v -59.5 prior

Turkey unemployment

South Africa manufacturing production

Wednesday, November 11th

US Veterans Day holiday

– Alibaba has its annual Singles’ Day

– ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the ECB Forum on Central Banking.

– Riksbank Governor Ingves’s press conference on the central bank’s stability report.

– OPEC monthly Oil Market Report released.

Economic Data

Mexico industrial production

South Korea unemployment rate

Australia consumer confidence

New Zealand rate decision: Expected to keep Cash Rate unchanged at 0.25% and maintain pace of QE bond purchases

Romania CPI

Turkey current-account balance

Japan machine tool orders

Thursday, November 12th

– ECB President Christine Lagarde, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are among the speakers at an online ECB Forum entitled “Central Banks in a Shifting World.” Through Nov. 12.

– Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks at a Detroit community forum.

– Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins gives a speech via video conference.

– The BOE’s Andrew Bailey speaks at the FT Global Boardroom conference.

– EIA crude oil inventory report

Economic Data

US Oct CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.4% prior; initial jobless claims, Treasury budget statement

Mexico rate decision: Analysts are split, could keep rates steady or cut by 25bps

Japan PPI, core machine orders

India CPI, industrial production, trade

UK Q3 Prelim GDP Q/Q: 15.8% v -19.8% prior; RICS house-price index

South Africa unemployment, mining production

Israel trade balance

Norway GDP

Friday, November 13th

– Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 hold an extraordinary meeting to discuss bolder action to help poor nations struggling to repay their debts.

– St. Louis Fed President Bullard will discuss monetary policy in a webinar hosted by the Economic Club of Memphis.

– The BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at a UBS conference.

– Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann speaks at the Bundesbank Listens event in Frankfurt.

– Bank of Canada releases its Senior Loan Officer Survey

Economic Data

US PPI, University of Michigan sentiment

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, food prices

Turkey industrial production

GDP: Malaysia, Hong Kong, Hungary, Romania, Poland

Poland CPI

Sovereign Rating Updates

– Austria (Fitch)

– France (Fitch) 

– Iceland(S&P)

– Netherlands (S&P)

– Israel (S&P)

– Austria (Moody’s)

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Estimating US Recession Risk Using Economic Data For States

What are the choices for monitoring and estimating recession risk? Slightly lower than the number of stars in the universe. Ok, I’m exaggerating, but…



What are the choices for monitoring and estimating recession risk? Slightly lower than the number of stars in the universe. Ok, I’m exaggerating, but not much. The good news: the search for robust, relatively reliable indicators narrows the field dramatically. But there’s always more to learn, in part because the supply of data sets is vast, increasingly so. Which brings me to another indicator that looks promising: state coincident indexes.

Every state’s economy is, in some degree, unique, although the gravitational pull of the national economy casts a long shadow. Tracking each state economy separately, and then aggregating the results, provides a different spin on the US business cycle compared with national indicators. Think of it as a bottom-up model vs. the standard top-down approach via US retail sales, industrial production, etc.

Conveniently, the Philly Fed publishes monthly coincident indicators for each state. Aggregating the 50 signals into a composite index provides a somewhat different view of the US business cycle vs. traditional top-down metrics. There are several ways to process the numbers – my preference, shown in the chart below, is a 3-month-change model. If a state’s 3-month change is negative (positive), the signal is negative (positive). Summing the negatives and positives provides a national profile. The current reading is 0.48 — in other words, 48% of the states are posting negative 3-month changes for their respective coincident indicator. As shown below, the composite reading maps fairly closely with NBER-defined downturns, and so the current signal is issuing a warning, albeit a warning that has yet to provide what might be thought of as passing the point of no return. But it’s close.

The readings vary from 0 (no negative 3-month changes) to 1.0 (all 50 states are reporting negative 3-month changes). A quick review of the historical record suggests that the US is on the verge of slipping into recession.

But before we ring the alarm bell, there are some caveats to consider. First, a similarly high reading 20-plus years ago turned out to be a false signal. The next couple of months will likely determine if a repeat performance is brewing, or not.

Second, no one indicator is flawless, as we’ve learned over the last couple of years – especially in recent history, when pandemic-related events have created no shortage of macro surprises.

Another reason to reserve judgment, at least for now: a range of other business cycle indicators tracked in The US Business Cycle Risk Report (a sister publication of continue to show a clear growth bias. But as reported in this week’s issue, there are some nascent signs of softer economic activity and so it’s possible that the coincident state indicators are an early warning that the tide is shifting.

The most reliable methodology for estimating recession risk in real time is building an ensemble model that combines various modeling applications that are complimentary. Although any one model will excel at a given point in time, quite often the best-performing indicator changes through time. To minimize the risk that’s inherent in any one signal, The US Business Cycle Risk Report crunches the numbers on multiple indicators, which has proven to be close to optimal for balancing the need for timely signals that minimize false signaling.

Despite the caveats, the coincident state model adds another dimension to the mix and provides some complimentary input to The US Business Cycle Risk Report’s existing suite of indicators. Accordingly, I’ll be adding the composite state coincident data to the newsletter’s weekly updates.

The next batch of coincident state updates for January is scheduled for later this month. Meantime, I’ll be carefully reviewing the incoming data for fresh clues that support or reject the suggestion that trouble’s brewing via the state coincident indicators.

How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report

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Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

Air Canada expects the slow recovery in cargo volume…



Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

Air Canada expects the slow recovery in cargo volume that began in the fourth quarter to quicken in 2024, aided by the addition of two more freighter aircraft, but doesn’t anticipate gains in pricing power, Mark Galardo, executive vice president for network planning and revenue management, said Friday.

The cargo division within Air Canada (TSX: AC) currently operates five converted and two factory-built Boeing 767-300 freighters. It is scheduled this year to receive two cargo jets converted from passenger configuration, but delivery of a third plane has been delayed until 2025 because of lingering supply chain and labor challenges faced by aerospace manufacturing companies, said Galardo on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

The company nonetheless expects cargo capacity to increase 6% to 8% this year with the addition of the two freighters and more passenger aircraft that also carry cargo. The converted freighters are retired Air Canada passenger jets that are being retrofitted by aftermarket aerospace firms for carrying large containers in the main cabin area.

Cargo revenue fell 15% year over year in the fourth quarter to US$181 million on soft demand and lower yields, Air Canada reported. The three-month period represented an improvement from prior months as the downturn in freight transportation that gripped the air logistics industry for nearly 18 months began to ease. Full-year cargo revenue fell 27% to $253.7 million.

At the end of 2023, Canada’s flag carrier operated four more 767 freighters than at the end of 2022. Freighters were reintroduced at the company two years ago. Increased freighter operations to Central and South America and to Europe partially offset the year-over-year decline. Air Canada also enhanced its interline cooperation with Emirates SkyCargo, which allows customers to book interline cargo shipments through the Emirates SkyCargo flights, including between the Americas and Southeast Asia and India, through key European hubs. 

“We had a bit of a slower start in January, but as we look into February and beyond we’re starting to see volumes pick up and yields also pick up. And our 2024 assumption on cargo is more volume-driven than yield-driven. So we’re starting to see some positive indicators,” Galardo told analysts. “We’ve taken all the necessary measures to position ourselves to take advantage of the recovery. This includes strategically adjusting our freighter plan so that we can keep focusing on proven overall results for the long term and on maximizing cargo network value for our entire fleet.”

Air Canada in late September canceled an order with Boeing for two 777-200 production freighters because of the reversal in airfreight demand following the pandemic-fueled boom for air transport that lasted until early 2022. It then ordered 18 787-10 Dreamliners, including two that were swapped for the 777 freighters. Management, at the time, reiterated its commitment to operating freighters, saying that it needed to take a more measured approach to fleet expenditures and keep more cash available for other purposes.

Air Canada expects another leap in cargo business when the 787-10s begin entering the fleet in late 2025. But ongoing safety and manufacturing problems at Boeing could upset the delivery schedule. Production flaws have previously prevented customers from receiving Dreamliners on time.

“As we eventually receive the larger 787-10s, taking advantage of global cargo flows through our hubs will become an important lever for further diversifying revenue streams,” said Galardo. 

Air Canada performed well on cargo against its peers during the fourth quarter. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines saw cargo revenue slide 24% during the period, and Korean Air said its cargo sales fell nearly 29%. The percentage change in revenue at Air Canada was on par with the 14.8% decline at United Airlines. On a total dollar basis, Air Canada cargo revenue was less than that of the other carriers. The three major U.S. airlines are much larger than Air Canada but also do not have a dedicated cargo fleet. Delta was the closest to Air Canada at $188 million in revenue.

Overall, Air Canada generated $3.9 billion in revenue, up 11% from the prior year, during the final three months of 2023. But earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $386.4 million came in below expectations. On an adjusted basis, the company lost $32.6 million versus a loss of $162 million the year before. Higher wages, maintenance costs and flying volumes pushed expenses up 8%. Inflation is expected to increase costs another 4.5% to 5% in 2024, offset in part by productivity gains.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/20/2024 - 06:30

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CCP Tightens Exit Controls Amid Sharp Increase In Citizens Fleeing China

CCP Tightens Exit Controls Amid Sharp Increase In Citizens Fleeing China

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

The sharp increase of Chinese…



CCP Tightens Exit Controls Amid Sharp Increase In Citizens Fleeing China

Authored by Alex Wu via The Epoch Times,

The sharp increase of Chinese citizens joining the “run” movement—fleeing China by both legal and illegal means—has attracted international attention since the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) three-year draconian “zero-COVID” lockdowns that caused countless humanitarian tragedies.

Most of them have taken various routes to the United States, their ideal destination.

Meanwhile, the CCP is reported to have tightened control over Chinese citizens’ overseas travel to save face as so many citizens are fleeing, in contrast to the CCP’s claim of “confidence” in its system.

Different Routes

According to media reports and what fleeing citizens told The Epoch Times, Chinese nationals at various economic strata take different routes into the United States.

People with sufficient funds can enter Mexico through a Schengen visa or a short visit visa. Some use a Korean visa to enter Panama without a visa, and some people directly obtain a Mexican visa under the arrangement of an agency and cross the U.S. southern border via the shortest route.

Other Chinese have taken longer routes, first flying to Thailand, then to Turkey, then to Ecuador. Others fly to Turkey via Hong Kong.

Mr. Lu, who is doing business in Thailand, told The Epoch Times that the Chinese regime has tightened its exit controls. His full name, along with others mentioned in this story, is being withheld for his safety.

If people join a tour group, they won’t be bothered by border control agents. But people traveling independently will most likely be interrogated for extended periods by customs about their reasons for going to Thailand.

“The authorities are worried that after people go to Thailand, they may go from Thailand to Turkey, South America, and then enter the United States,” he said. “Some people from Chengdu, Luoyang, and other parts of China told me that when they were leaving China as individuals, they’re all interrogated, the shortest questioning time was 25 minutes.”

Mr. Lu believes that the reason why customs have interrogated people like this was that they must have received orders from above to probe people’s reasons for leaving.

Mr. Zhang, who just fled China, told The Epoch Times that when they left China via Turkey in September 2023, it was relatively normal and there were not many restrictions. But since early December last year it started to tighten restrictions.

Migrants walk along the US side of the United States border wall after crossing through an open gap in Jacumba, Calif., on Dec. 6, 2023. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

Mr. Zhang said that one of his friends went to Turkey in December, but the situation was different.

“He bought a ticket that required a layover in Chengdu in China. That is, he flew from Bangkok to Chengdu and then to Turkey,” he said. “When he entered Chengdu Airport, the Chinese airport staff stopped him and tried to drag him to the Chinese domestic area, preventing him from leaving. Fortunately, he stayed with another passenger who is Turkish in the international area in the airport and didn’t cross to the Chinese side at the airport. Once he enters the the Chinese area at the airport, he will definitely not be able to get out of the country. He thought about it now and felt it’s rather scary.”

CCP Tightens Control to Save Face

Mr. Yang, a Chinese expat in Thailand, told The Epoch Times, “Those Chinese who have the means to flee, most of them have already left after the CCP abandoned the COVID-19 controls. There are still more people leaving now because they needed time to take care of families, children, real estate, and businesses in China, so they are leaving slowly.” He said that it is certain that the communist regime is trying to suppress this, because there are too many Chinese people fleeing now.

“Many Chinese people haven’t been interviewed by the CCP’s national security. They haven’t attracted the attention of the CCP, or were not its focus, so they were able to leave. Those people who have been interviewed by the national security are restricted from leaving China, so they have to find ways to leave the country illegally,” he said.

Mr. Wei, who just came to the United States last year, told The Epoch Times, “I learned from many people that the exit control at many ports in China is currently being tightened.”

Li Beixing, who traveled to the United States last year, told The Epoch Times, “The CCP’s customs staff asked me to take out everything from my bag, and then they took my cellphone to check my communication records. They interrogated me for at least two hours, asking every question they could think of.”

Lawyer Liang Shaohua, former chief compliance officer of a mainland asset management company, told The Epoch Times that everyone in mainland China could apply for a passport before, but that seems to no longer be the case. Those who have a passport are also not allowed to renew it.

A post on Chinese social media has attracted wide attention in recent days. It shows that Lianjiang County in Fujian Province was having a meeting titled “Lianjiang County’s deployment meeting to crackdown on smuggling to the United States and the control of key personnel involved in fraud” to focus on the “run” movement in the county.

Mr. Wu from Fujian told The Epoch Times that what happened in Lianjiang is true. “If someone is caught there, they will be fined into bankruptcy,” he said.

Mr. Wu said that Lianjiang County is the hometown of overseas Chinese, and is a place known for smuggling people out of the country. After three years of COVID-19 lockdowns and strict controls, a large number of people have begun to flee again, and many people are being smuggled out to other countries, with most fleeing to the United States.

“Why [does the CCP] need to crack down on it? People are all gone, there is no one here anymore, and it sounds bad in the international community,” Mr. Wu said.

Mr. Li in Lianjiang also confirmed with The Epoch Times Lianjiang’s supression notice, saying that it’s been particularly strict recently. “It is because the CCP is afraid of losing face, so the higher-ups are suppressing local officials, and now people are caught for smuggling out they will be sentenced to prison.”

A Border Patrol agent apprehends a Chinese couple that just waded across the Rio Grande from Mexico into Eagle Pass, Texas, on Jan. 25, 2022. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times)

International human right group Safeguard Defenders published a report in last May that the CCP “is increasingly resorting to exit bans to punish human rights defenders (HRDs) and their families, hold people hostage to force targets overseas to come back to China (a practice called persuade to return, a form of transnational repression), control ethnic-religious groups, engage in hostage diplomacy and intimidate foreign journalists.”

The CCP’s exit ban and others are “illegitimate and violate the Universal Declaration of Human Right’s principle of Freedom of Movement,” the report pointed out.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/20/2024 - 02:00

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