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US Stocks Still Lead Global Markets By Wide Margin In 2023
It’s been a strong year for American equities. Although US shares have been trading in a tight range recently, the market is holding on to the bulk of…

It’s been a strong year for American equities. Although US shares have been trading in a tight range recently, the market is holding on to the bulk of its robust year-to-date gain in 2023.
Stocks in the world’s biggest economy also continue to outperform the rest of the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Sep. 15). Vanguard Total US Stock Market Index Fund (VTI) is up 16.5% in 2023, which is only moderately below its 20%-plus year-to-date peak reached in August.
The next-best advance for the major asset classes this year is a distant-but-still-solid 10.4% rise for stocks in developed nations ex-US (VEA). Meanwhile, the worst performer this year is still global property shares ex-US (VNQI) via a 2.6% loss.
Investors are debating if the recent flatlining in US shares is a pause that refreshes or a peak in what will eventually be seen as a bear market rally following last year’s sharp correction. A key factor for deciding what comes next is linked to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at Wednesday’s policy announcement on Sep. 20.
Even if the forecast is correct, analysts continue to debate if rates are set to peak.
“How the Fed delivers the pause is crucial for November and December rate expectations, but whether it’s presented with a dovish or hawkish tilt is what matters most for financial markets,” advises Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
A poll last week by Reuters reports that less than 20% of economists anticipate a rate rise before the end of the year.
Fed funds futures are also leaning toward the view that the Fed will leave its target rate unchanged for the rest of the year, although the implied probability for extending a pause at the November and December FOMC meetings is only moderate at this point. By contrast, the futures market is pricing in a near certainty for no change on Wednesday.

A source of uncertainty, notes Wilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley, is the Fed’s focus on repairing its credibility after reacting too slowly to surging inflation in 2021-2022. “They are being very risk averse and they’re still worried about making the mistake of the 1970s of letting inflation go back up,” he says. “They don’t want the market to take any kind of signal of dovishness and run with it. They need to keep financial conditions tight.”
Until the investors become confident on the question of when and where rates peak, the odds appear more than trivial that the stock market will be in a holding pattern.
Meanwhile, the latest consumer inflation data for August convince some analysts that the Fed will be inclined to lift rates. The US Consumer Price Index accelerated slightly to 3.7% last month vs. the year-earlier level, in part because gasoline prices spiked.
“Ultimately, this release showed that there is still real work to be done to get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target,” advises Sam Millette, fixed income strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network.
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CME Group (CME) posts second-best ever September and Q3 volumes
There was strength across various asset classes, with interest-rate products among those growing at an impressive rate. The standout performer was Ultra…

There was strength across various asset classes, with interest-rate products among those growing at an impressive rate. The standout performer was Ultra US Treasury Bond Futures, which soared to 308,238 contracts. There was also robust volume growth for SOFR futures (+44%) and options (101%).
However, last year’s record-setting September meant a year-over-year decline for a range of assets, even as the month compared favourably with over-trading periods overall. The ADV for interest rate dipped 10% from a year ago to 10.2m, though it did climb 6% overall in Q3 to 11m. There was also a 24% drop off for the equity index ADV, which came in at 7.1m last month.
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Investors reacted fairly positively to the news on Tuesday. CME Group did trade lower during the morning session but recovered to close 0.75% higher at $201.66. Those gains looked more impressive considering Tuesday proved to be a challenging day for many stocks and shares. CME Group is now not far off its yearly high of $209.31, which was set back in early August.
The post CME Group (CME) posts second-best ever September and Q3 volumes appeared first on LeapRate.
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FTX-SBF charges valid despite lack of US crypto laws, DOJ says
Sam Bankman-Fried’s counsel had argued that FTX was not located in the United States, and as SBF did follow regulatory obligations concerning FTX US,…

Sam Bankman-Fried’s counsel had argued that FTX was not located in the United States, and as SBF did follow regulatory obligations concerning FTX US, charges related to FTX international shouldn’t apply.
The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a motion in court on Oct. 4, claiming the lack of crypto regulations in the U.S. is no bar to the criminal charges made against former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF).
The DOJ’s letter was filed in response to the defendant’s request for clarification and reconsideration of charges related to the misappropriation of funds in FTX. Lawyers for SBF argued that their client was “not guilty because FTX was not regulated in the United States, and he followed the rules concerning FTX US.”
The DOJ called this argument irrelevant, claiming that even though the existence of legislation may be necessary to prove a legal obligation, the lack of it does not affect whether the defendant’s victims committed money to him. The DOJ noted that the defendant’s claim about a lack of regulations related to customer funds usage is false as there are existing rules against it.
The DOJ further argued that the existing laws prohibit companies from stealing customer assets, and the defendant has been charged under the same. Furthermore, the defendant committed substantial misrepresentations to customers, as well as having stolen money from them.
Related: What has Sam Bankman-Fried been up to in jail?
The DOJ argued that it is irrelevant to whether the defendant made substantial misstatements or omissions in the supposed “absence of clearly applicable laws or regulations.“ It cannot be proven that the wire fraud allegations are “actus reus,” meaning guilty act, regardless of whether there is regulation or not.
SBF is currently facing multiple charges of wire fraud and misappropriation of customer funds, among others. The former FTX CEO is currently in jail for violating his bail conditions and trying to influence potential witnesses. However, he has appealed — to no avail — several times to be released on bail before the trial commences. SBF’s legal team cited a lack of internet connectivity hindering his defense preparations, as well as no vegan meal options.
SBF faced his first day of jury trial on Oct.3, with reports suggesting the trial could last as long as six weeks.
Magazine: Can you trust crypto exchanges after the collapse of FTX?
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Bank of Korea to start CBDC infrastructure pilot
The pilot will include private banks and public institutions, while the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) will support it with technical expertise.
…

The pilot will include private banks and public institutions, while the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) will support it with technical expertise.
South Korea joins a growing number of nations researching central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The Bank of Korea (BOK) will launch the pilot project, exploring the technical infrastructure for a digital currency.
The joint announcement of the CBDC pilot by the BOK, the Financial Services Commission (FSC), and the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) was published on Oct.4. According to the document, the project will assess the viability of a future monetary system grounded on "wholesale CBDCs."
The pilot will include private banks and public institutions, while the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) will support it with technical expertise. The BOK is going to test both retail and wholesale types of CBDC. Within the experimental framework of the latter, the banks will tokenize their deposits and circulate them in the network, monitored by the BOK, FSC and FSS. The live testing of the retail CBDC should begin right after the system setup in Q4 2024.
Related: Crypto makes up 70% of South Korea’s reported overseas assets
As it usually goes with the CBDC tests, the BOK notes that the exploring doesn’t equal the inevitable implementation. However, the First Deputy Governor of the FSS, Lee Myung-soon, called the pilot a step to the future monetary system:
"The BOK has persistently pursued technological research related to CBDC. This test, building upon past achievements, represents a significant step towards creating a prototype for the future monetary system."
These words resonated with a statement made by one of the chief executives of France’s Central Bank on Sept. 3. In his speech, Denis Beau, the first deputy governor at Banque de France, called the CBDC “the catalyst for improving cross-border payments by enabling the build-up of a new international monetary system.”
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