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This Week in Apps: Google, TikTok add protections for minors, app store bill proposes big changes, what’s new with Samsung

Welcome back to This Week in Apps, the weekly TechCrunch series that recaps the latest in mobile OS news, mobile applications and the overall app economy. The app industry continues to grow, with a record 218 billion downloads and $143 billion in…

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Welcome back to This Week in Apps, the weekly TechCrunch series that recaps the latest in mobile OS news, mobile applications and the overall app economy.

The app industry continues to grow, with a record 218 billion downloads and $143 billion in global consumer spend in 2020. Consumers last year also spent 3.5 trillion minutes using apps on Android devices alone. And in the U.S., app usage surged ahead of the time spent watching live TV. Currently, the average American watches 3.7 hours of live TV per day, but now spends four hours per day on their mobile devices.

Apps aren’t just a way to pass idle hours — they’re also a big business. In 2019, mobile-first companies had a combined $544 billion valuation, 6.5x higher than those without a mobile focus. In 2020, investors poured $73 billion in capital into mobile companies — a figure that’s up 27% year-over-year.

This Week in Apps offers a way to keep up with this fast-moving industry in one place with the latest from the world of apps, including news, updates, startup fundings, mergers and acquisitions, and suggestions about new apps and games to try, too.

Do you want This Week in Apps in your inbox every Saturday? Sign up here: techcrunch.com/newsletters

Top Stories

A new Senate bill could put an end to app stores’ dominance

Image Credits: TechCrunch

A bipartisan group of three U.S. senators — Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) — introduced a new piece of legislation called the Open Markets Act, could change the way mobile software is distributed. The bill would give developers the right to tell their customers about lower prices outside the app stores (without fear of punishment), and permit alternative payment mechanisms, sideloading and third-party app stores where developers could avoid platform fees. It would also bar platform makers like Apple and Google from using non-public information they collect via app stores to build out competing products, or rank those products more favorably.

The bill is being applauded by Apple critics, including the Coalition for App Fairness and its members, Epic Games, Spotify, Tile and others, who are now urging Congress to swiftly pass the legislation to level the playing field.

As regulatory pressure on platform makers has intensified, the companies looked for ways to better cater to smaller developers with drops in commission rates, as well as increased privacy and security measures — the latter which could help boost their arguments that the app store model is favorable to consumer interests.

Such a bill is a notable first step toward some sort of market changes, but it’s still too early to know if or when the bill will gain traction, much less be passed into law.

Tech giants Google, YouTube and TikTok follow Instagram with increased protections for minors

Google and YouTube (as well as TikTok) this week rolled out a series of changes to their products and services to increase the privacy and security of accounts belonging to teenaged users under the age of 18. The specific changes vary a bit from service to service, but are largely focused on making younger people’s accounts more private by default, ensuring they’re making an intentional choice when shifting accounts or content to become public, and limiting to what extent advertisers can target them. TikTok went a bit further to restrict push notifications after “bedtime” hours for its teen users, while YouTube chose to turn on its “take a break” and “bedtime” reminders by default instead.

Image Credits: TikTok

The changes follow similar moves announced just weeks ago by Instagram, and follow increased pressure from the U.S. Congress to do more to protect younger users from the harmful impacts of using technology.

One piece of legislation, which tech companies may be trying to get ahead of, is an update to COPPA that would expand some protections to children under the age of 18, instead of just under 13. What’s missing from all these initiatives, however, is any plan to more strictly verify children’s ages on an app. Since many kids already know to lie about their birth year at sign-up, it’s unclear how effective these measures will be in the long term.

Samsung Unpacked Wrap-Up

Image Credits: Brian Heater

Samsung this week hosted its Unpacked event, where it debuted the company’s latest mobile products. This time, the smartphone maker showed off a new crop of foldables, including the Galaxy Z Fold 3 and Galaxy Z Flip 3 (clamshell, woo!), which will give app makers even more device styles and formats to consider when designing their apps. Well, if these foldables ever gain market traction that is, instead of existing in consumers’ minds as a gimmick. (For what it’s worth, Microsoft hopped on the bandwagon.)

Samsung also introduced a new smartwatch powered by Google’s WearOS (if you can’t beat ’em…), the Galaxy Watch 4, and entry-level wireless earbuds, the Galaxy Buds 2.

Weekly News

Platforms: Apple

  • Apple released the fifth betas of iOS 15 and iPadOS 15 to developers, which offer some more minor tweaks and stability improvements as the platforms head toward a fall release. New additions include an updated weather icon, shading around the tab interface in Safari on iPad, an option to use larger icons on iPad, a new warning pop-up that reminds you the iPhone is still findable when off, new splash screens for Apple’s apps, the integration of TestFlight info in the App Store and more.
  • Apple released a new developer tool that allows app makers to test how their app behaves when the device is connected to 5G instead of Wi-Fi. The tool is necessary because iOS 15/iPadOS 15 devices can automatically prioritize 5G over Wi-Fi when the latter’s performance is slow.
  • Apple settled a 2019 lawsuit with Corellium, a company that builds virtual iOS devices used by security researchers. Apple had said Corellium was infringing on its copyright, selling its product indiscriminately and compromising platform security. A judge dismissed Apple’s claims as “puzzling,” noting Corellium established “fair use.” The settlement terms were not disclosed.
  • Apple’s Find My app in iOS 15 will use Bluetooth technology to precisely locate AirPods (Pro and Max) devices, and will tie AirPods to users’ Apple ID.

Platforms: Google

wall of phones - Android 12 Google I/O 2021

Image Credits: Google

  • Google launched Android 12 beta 4, whose biggest new feature is that the platform has now reached stability. Developers can now test apps before the public release, without having to worry about future breaking changes. Android 12 offers a big redesign, with a more personalized “Material You” design language and increased privacy protections.
  • Google banned the location data firm SafeGraph, funded by a former head of Saudi intelligence, which was paying developers to include their data collection tools in their apps so they could resell the data to other companies or government agencies. Any apps working with SafeGraph will have to remove the code.

E-commerce

  • DoorDash recently held talks to buy Instacart, according to a report from The Information. The $40 billion-$50 billion deal would have combined two top food delivery apps — one for restaurants, the other for groceries — but talks fell through.
  • Weedmaps added in-app cannabis purchasing for iPhone users. Thanks to looser App Store restrictions, Weedmaps users can now browse, select and purchase cannabis and have it delivered or set for pickup directly within the app.
  • Instagram is testing ads in its Shop tab, which allow brands to feature either an image or image carousel. The ads will launch with an auction-based model and will only appear on mobile devices.

Augmented Reality

  • Snap hired a Facebook AR executive, Joe Darko, The Information reported. The new AR leader, who previously launched the Spark AR Partner Network at Facebook, will now oversee Snap’s AR Developer Relations.

Fintech

Image Credits: Venmo

  • Venmo announced it would allow its credit card holders to automatically buy cryptocurrency with their card’s cashback, through a new feature called Cash Back to Crypto. Cardholders can select between Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, which will be purchased monthly with no transaction fees.

Social

  • Some Snap creators have left for other platforms as the company’s creator bonuses dried up, CNBC found. Snap had been paying $1 million per day in prize money for creators posting to its TikTok competitor, Spotlight. Now, it’s paying “millions” per month — and creators are chasing bigger bonuses elsewhere.
  • Instagram’s TikTok competitor, Reels, added a new feature that allows users to search for audio to include in their short-form videos, and the pages for the tracks will show the other videos that used them — like TikTok offers.
  • A report circulating this week claims TikTok surpassed Facebook’s downloads in 2020, which um, we already knew many months ago? But yeah, it did.
  • Instagram rolled out new anti-abuse features after high-profile incidents of racism took place on its platform following the Euro 2020 final, where angry fans attacked players. New tools include Limits, which lets you restrict certain groups from DM’ing and commenting for a period of time; plus an expansion of Hidden Words to include new strings of emoji; and a more aggressive “Hide More Comments” feature.
  • Instagram took down a website, LikeUp.Me, selling fake likes and followers. The site, which was served a C&D from Facebook, had earned around $100K in the past year.
  • Reddit is rolling out a TikTok-like video feed button on its iOS app. The feature has reached “most” iOS users and drops them into a full screen experience where users can upvote, downvote, comment on, gift an award or share the video. You can also swipe up to see more videos, also like TikTok. Surprisingly, the company claims its acquired Dubsmash IP was not a part of this project.

Messaging

Image Credits: WhatsApp

  • WhatsApp will gain the ability to transfer chat history between mobile operating systems. The feature is coming to Samsung devices first, followed by a broader Android rollout, then iOS. Samsung customers can use the company’s transfer tool, Smart Switch, which already copies other personal data between devices, to also now move their encrypted WhatsApp chat history, including voice notes, photos and conversations.
  • Google is pushing mobile Hangouts users to switch to Google Chat through an in-app message that reminds users that Hangouts will be discontinued. Disgruntled users took to Google Play to express their anger with dozens of one-star reviews. How’s that mess of a messaging app strategy looking now, Google?
  • Messenger delves into the design of its recently launched “Soundmojis,” which pair an emoji and sound together to create a new form of expression that would be universally understood and surprising.
  • Facebook is bringing end-to-end encryption to Messenger calls, noting that E2E was the industry standard and what people now expect. The company said also it would begin testing E2E for group chats and calls in Messenger and Instagram DMs.

Photos

  • Apple’s next iPhones will reportedly allow users to take “video portraits,Bloomberg reported. Other additions will offer the ability to record video in the higher-quality format called ProRes and a new filters system to improve the look of photos.
  • As Instagram’s photography community is getting increasingly frustrated by the app’s shift to video, a new app called Glass launched into beta to serve photographers of all sizes. As reported by Om Malik, who has been testing the app for nearly six months, subscription-based Glass is beautiful and fresh, and reminiscent of early Instagram, with support for comments and followers, but differentiates itself by not chasing clout though public likes.

Image Credits: Glass

Dating

  • Facebook Dating is gaining an “audio chat” feature, which will allow matches to have voice chats to get to know one another. It’s also adding a Lucky Pick, to suggest daters outside someone’s typical preferences, and Match Anywhere, which allows users to consider locations outside their current city.
  • A Match beta test is targeting users’ most common dating app complaints, like too much swiping and ghosting. Now, Match will offer weekly “Matched by Us” recommendations and will prompt users to unmatch or respond, instead of leaving conversations hanging. The company also hinted that it may roll out a human-led matchmaking feature in the future, as well.
  • Tinder’s interactive feature, “Swipe Night,” is coming back after a 20 million user turnout from its “season 1.” The new version won’t be a choose-your-own-adventure, but rather a “Gen Z whodunit,” the company said, and will use the quick chat feature that allows users to chat without having first matched.

Streaming & Entertainment

  • HBO Max added free episodes to its platform, including its app for mobile devices. Users can sample 13 episodes from top shows and originals without paying, including “Euphoria,” “Game of Thrones,” “Lovecraft Country,” “The Flight Attendant,” “Veneno,” “Warrior” and more, as well as browse the catalog to see what else is offered with a paid subscription.
  • A Spotify representative told users in the company’s forum that its work to add support for the nearly 3-year-old AirPlay 2 technology was being abandoned for the time being, citing “driver compatibility issues.” The post gained a lot of attention from disgruntled users and press, leading Spotify to clarify that it “will support AirPlay 2,” without offering a time frame. The company, a staunch Apple critic, has been hesitant to support other Apple products, including HomePod speakers, where native support isn’t available.
  • YouTube’s Android app is trying out a new gesture that will allow users to navigate its video “Chapters” by double-tapping with two fingers.
  • A new U.S. streaming report by Penthera found that 71% of viewers stream video on 2 devices per day, on average, including a connected TV device and mobile. And 80% said they watch videos at home. But now 92% (up from 88% last year) now say re-buffering is the biggest problem they face while streaming.

Gaming

Image Credits: App Annie

  • App Annie released its 2021 gaming report, which estimates mobile gaming will reach $120 billion in consumer spending by year-end, or 3.1x more than consoles. Other highlights include:
    • 4 of the top 10 most downloaded subgenres across all games are in the hypercasual category. 
    • “Happy Glass” is the fastest ever hypercasual game to break 100 million downloads.
    • The pandemic pushed gaming to new levels. Weekly game downloads topped 1 billion in March 2020, and have stayed there ever since.
    • In H1 2021, there were over 810 games surpassing $1 million in consumer spending per month, up 25% from 2019.
    • In H1 2021, per week there were over 1 billion downloads, $1.7 billion spent and 5 billion hours spent on mobile games globally.
    • The U.S. topped the mobile games market by App Store consumer spending. 
    • AppLovin topped the charts for worldwide downloads, while Tencent dominated consumer spend.
    • U.S. mobile game usage skews female (64% of gamers are female). That’s not the same in other markets, where more mobile gamers are men — like Japan (56% male) and South Korea (53% male). 
  • U.S. mobile tabletop game spending rose by 40% to $704 million over the past 12 months, a Sensor Tower report found. The top grossing game was Solitaire Grand Harvest from Supertreat, followed by Solitaire TriPeaks from GSN, then Yahtzee with Buddies Dice from Scopely. Downloads, however, declined by 12% YoY, with 202.7 million installs over the past 12 months, versus 230.7 million in the year-ago period.
  • Epic Games CEO Tim Sweeney discovered a surprise in a set of recently unsealed court documents in the Epic Games v. Google antitrust case. He learned that Google had once mulled acquiring his company at some point — which Sweeney said was related to Epic’s decision to compete with Google Play. The documents also refer to the “frankly abysmal” sideloading experience on Android.

Food

  • Google-owned navigation app Waze announced a partnership with Too Good To Go, an organization that works with small businesses and organizations to decrease food waste. The partnership will highlight independent restaurants and grocery stores in select U.S. cities that are taking steps to reduce food waste by showcasing them on the Waze map. These businesses also sell “surprise” bags of food that contain three times more food than the cost of the bag at the end of the day. The food is perfectly good, but can’t be sold the second day, so would otherwise be thrown out.
  • OpenTable’s app added a new Direct Messaging feature that lets diners and restaurants communicate directly after a reservation is made, instead of having to place a phone call. The feature can be used to clarify a diner’s requests, or other changes, or even message after the reservation has ended in case of items that were left behind, or other needs.

Image Credits: OpenTable

Adtech

  • Tapjoy launched MobileVoice, a market research solution for surveying mobile-first consumers where researchers bid for each response. Higher bids will give users more virtual currency for their game, which motivates consumers to share their opinions.

Government & Policy

  • WhatsApp, Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and Twitter were restricted in Zambia amidst ongoing general elections on Thursday, polling day, through Sunday, when votes counts are expected to have ended.
  • Facebook’s acquisition of GIF database Giphy has come under fire from U.K. regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority, which announced a preliminary finding that the deal “will harm competition.”
  • India’s government says Twitter is now in compliance with the country’s new IT laws, which required the company to appoint a chief compliance officer, a nodal contact person and a resident grievance officer in the country.

Security & Privacy

  • Recommended Reading: TechCrunch Editor-in-Chief Matthew Panzarino interviewed Apple Privacy head Erik Neuenschwander about the company’s plans to detect CSAM and Apple’s new Messages app safety features. Apple’s announcement stirred controversy in the security community because of how the company is implementing the technology, which some have argued could leave the door open for other governments or agencies to compromise for their own ends. Neuenschwander explains the system’s protections that make it less useful for doing so — meaning that its technology itself, and not just Apple’s word, could prevent this type of abuse. And in terms of user privacy, there is an opt-out — you just turn off iCloud Photos.

Funding and M&A

Privacy-oriented search app Xayn raised $12 million in Series A funding led by Japanese investors Global Brain and KDDI (a Japanese telecommunications operator) for its app that fuses together search, a discovery feed and a mobile browser. The app will focus on Asian markets and Europe.

Social banking app Kroo raised $24.5 million in Series A funding led by Rudy Karsan, a high-net-worth tech entrepreneur and founder of Karlani Capital. The London-based fintech offers a prepaid card service but is moving toward offering expanded banking services in its mobile app.

Pokémon GO developer Niantic acquired the iPhone and iPad app Scaniverse for an undisclosed sum. The Scaniverse app allows users to scan objects and environments into high-res 3D, and will remain live on the App Store, and the founder will join Niantic’s AR team.

Car ownership “super app” Jerry raised $75 million in Series C funding led by existing backer Goodwater Capital, valuing its business at $450 million. The app uses automation to give consumers customized quotes from more than 45 insurance carriers, but is expanding into areas like financing, repair, warranties, parking, maintenance and more.

Mobile field service startup Youreka Labs raised $8.5 million in Series A funding co-led by  Boulder Ventures and Grotech Ventures. The company simplifies development of mobile service applications with a no-code authoring studio and one-click deployment to Apple, Android and Windows.

Reddit confirmed it has raised $410 million of a planned $700 million Series F funding round, led by Fidelity, valuing the business at $10 billion. The funds will be used to further build out community and advertising efforts, as well as increase headcount.

  U.S. grocery delivery service Gopuff acquired U.K. competitor Dija, which was only eight months old, to expand into Europe. Gopuff had previously acquired a similar startup, Fancy, just three months ago.

India’s VerSe Innovation, makers of Dailyhunt and Josh apps, raised over $450 million in a Series I funding round led by Siguler Guff, Baillie Gifford, affiliates of Carlyle Asia Partners Growth II and others. The company’s new valuation is now “nearing $3 billion.” Dailyhunt now has over 300 million MAUs and Josh has 115 million MAUs.

Social calendar app Saturn raised $35 million led by General Catalyst, Insight Partners and Coatue, bringing its total raise to date to $44 million. The app allows high school students to manage their schedule, track assignments, chat with friends and more across web and mobile devices.

  Fintech Robinhood acquired Say Technologies, a company offering a communications platform that allows smaller shareholders to pose questions to companies in which they invest. The $140 million all-cash deal is Robinhood’s first major purchase since going public in late July.

  Medal.tv, a short-form video clipping service and social network for gamers, entered the livestreaming market with the acquisition of Rawa.tv, a Twitch rival based in Dubai. Deal terms were not revealed, but the deal was in the seven figures.

Turkey’s Trendyol, an e-commerce website and app serving over 30 million shoppers, raised $1.5 billion in a round that valued the company at $16.5 billion. General Atlantic, SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Princeville Capital and sovereign wealth funds, ADQ (UAE) and Qatar Investment Authority, co-led.

Argentine fintech Ualá raised $350 million in Series D funding, valuing its business at $2.45 billion. The company offers a Mastercard and app, where users can access bill pay solutions, investment products, personal loans, BNPL installments and insurance. To date, the startup has issued more than 3.5 million cards in Mexico and Argentina.

Fintech Chime Financial raised $750 million in a round that values the business at $25 billion, ahead of a planned IPO next year. The round was led by new investor Sequoia Capital Global Equities. Chime today offers credit cards and no-fees banking services through a mobile app.

Mexico’s Orchata, a mobile app for getting groceries delivered via micro-fulfillment centers, raised $4 million in seed funding from investors including Y Combinator, JAM Fund, FJ Labs, Venture Friends, Investo and Foundation Capital, and angel investors Ross Lipson, Mike Hennessey, Brian Requarth and Javier Mata.

Public Markets

Krafton, the South Korean maker of PUBG, closed 9% down on its first day of trading on Tuesday after first debuting at $432 per share. Analysts said the company tried to go out with a valuation that was too high. At closing, the valuation was $19.32 billion. To date, PUBG Mobile has generated $6.3 billion in player spending across the app stores.

Crypto app Coinbase’s stock jumped 7% on Wednesday after better-than-expected earnings, where the company reported $1.6 billion in net profit for the quarter (earnings per share of $3.45), beating analyst estimates. Coinbase trading volumes were also up 38% to $462 billion in Q2.

TikTok owner ByteDance is considering a Hong Kong IPO, The FT reported. The Beijing-based tech company may list in either Q4 2021 or early 2022. As of its last fundraise of $5 billion in December 2020, the company was valued at $180 billion.

Mobile marketer and game provider AppLovin’s stock jumped 4.2% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the company reported 123% revenue growth to $669 million year-over-year from $299 million, beating analyst estimates. EPS was 4 cents versus a loss of 10 cents in the year-ago period.

The Disney+ streaming service beat analyst expectations to reach 116 million subscribers in Disney’s fiscal Q3. Disney now has nearly 174 million subscribers across Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+.

Downloads

Reelgood (update)

Streaming guide Reelgood has historically offered a great service for discovering new things to watch, and keeping track of where you’ve left off with favorite shows. Now, the company is introducing a new feature called Search Party, which makes it easier for two or more people to find something to watch that they all agree on. Using a familiar swipe left or right mechanism, users try to find a “match.” The feature also lets you set other filters, like release year, IMDb rating, genre and more, to narrow its suggestions. When one or more matches is detected, Reelgood notifies the group and displays the matches in a new tab where they’re organized by the total number of “Likes.” Reelgood is a free download on iOS and Android.

PairPlay

PairPlay is a clever new app from Jonathan Wegener, previously co-founder of Timehop and product designer at Snap, which turns a pair of AirPods into a two-person adventure game. You and one other player will split the pair, with one person taking the left AirPod and the other taking the right, to start the audio challenge. The players will hear different sides of the audio adventure story at the same time, which they can then play out together. Storylines may have you playing as secret agents, ghost hunters, robots and more. The game is family-friendly and can be played with kids as young as 7, though arguably some adults will have fun with this one, too. The app is a free download and requires AirPods.

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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives…

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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives floating around corporate media platforms has been the argument that the American people “just don’t seem to understand how good the economy really is right now.” If only they would look at the stats, they would realize that we are in the middle of a financial renaissance, right? It must be that people have been brainwashed by negative press from conservative sources…

I have to laugh at this notion because it’s a very common one throughout history – it’s an assertion made by almost every single political regime right before a major collapse. These people always say the same things, and when you study economics as long as I have you can’t help but throw up your hands and marvel at their dedication to the propaganda.

One example that comes to mind immediately is the delusional optimism of the “roaring” 1920s and the lead up to the Great Depression. At the time around 60% of the U.S. population was living in poverty conditions (according to the metrics of the decade) earning less than $2000 a year. However, in the years after WWI ravaged Europe, America’s economic power was considered unrivaled.

The 1920s was an era of mass production and rampant consumerism but it was all fueled by easy access to debt, a condition which had not really existed before in America. It was this illusion of prosperity created by the unchecked application of credit that eventually led to the massive stock market bubble and the crash of 1929. This implosion, along with the Federal Reserve’s policy of raising interest rates into economic weakness, created a black hole in the U.S. financial system for over a decade.

There are two primary tools that various failing regimes will often use to distort the true conditions of the economy: Debt and inflation. In the case of America today, we are experiencing BOTH problems simultaneously and this has made certain economic indicators appear healthy when they are, in fact, highly unstable. The average American knows this is the case because they see the effects everyday. They see the damage to their wallets, to their buying power, in the jobs market and in their quality of life. This is why public faith in the economy has been stuck in the dregs since 2021.

The establishment can flash out-of-context stats in people’s faces, but they can’t force the populace to see a recovery that simply does not exist. Let’s go through a short list of the most faulty indicators and the real reasons why the fiscal picture is not a rosy as the media would like us to believe…

The “miracle” labor market recovery

In the case of the U.S. labor market, we have a clear example of distortion through inflation. The $8 trillion+ dropped on the economy in the first 18 months of the pandemic response sent the system over the edge into stagflation land. Helicopter money has a habit of doing two things very well: Blowing up a bubble in stock markets and blowing up a bubble in retail. Hence, the massive rush by Americans to go out and buy, followed by the sudden labor shortage and the race to hire (mostly for low wage part-time jobs).

The problem with this “miracle” is that inflation leads to price explosions, which we have already experienced. The average American is spending around 30% more for goods, services and housing compared to what they were spending in 2020. This is what happens when you have too much money chasing too few goods and limited production.

The jobs market looks great on paper, but the majority of jobs generated in the past few years are jobs that returned after the covid lockdowns ended. The rest are jobs created through monetary stimulus and the artificial retail rush. Part time low wage service sector jobs are not going to keep the country rolling for very long in a stagflation environment. The question is, what happens now that the stimulus punch bowl has been removed?

Just as we witnessed in the 1920s, Americans have turned to debt to make up for higher prices and stagnant wages by maxing out their credit cards. With the central bank keeping interest rates high, the credit safety net will soon falter. This condition also goes for businesses; the same businesses that will jump headlong into mass layoffs when they realize the party is over. It happened during the Great Depression and it will happen again today.

Cracks in the foundation

We saw cracks in the narrative of the financial structure in 2023 with the banking crisis, and without the Federal Reserve backstop policy many more small and medium banks would have dropped dead. The weakness of U.S. banks is offset by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, which lures in foreign investors hoping to protect their wealth using dollar denominated assets.

But something is amiss. Gold and bitcoin have rocketed higher along with economically sensitive assets and the dollar. This is the opposite of what’s supposed to happen. Gold and BTC are supposed to be hedges against a weak dollar and a weak economy, right? If global faith in the dollar and in the U.S. economy is so high, why are investors diving into protective assets like gold?

Again, as noted above, inflation distorts everything.

Tens of trillions of extra dollars printed by the Fed are floating around and it’s no surprise that much of that cash is flooding into the economy which simply pushes higher right along with prices on the shelf. But, gold and bitcoin are telling us a more honest story about what’s really happening.

Right now, the U.S. government is adding around $600 billion per month to the national debt as the Fed holds rates higher to fight inflation. This debt is going to crush America’s financial standing for global investors who will eventually ask HOW the U.S. is going to handle that growing millstone? As I predicted years ago, the Fed has created a perfect Catch-22 scenario in which the U.S. must either return to rampant inflation, or, face a debt crisis. In either case, U.S. dollar-denominated assets will lose their appeal and their prices will plummet.

“Healthy” GDP is a complete farce

GDP is the most common out-of-context stat used by governments to convince the citizenry that all is well. It is yet another stat that is entirely manipulated by inflation. It is also manipulated by the way in which modern governments define “economic activity.”

GDP is primarily driven by spending. Meaning, the higher inflation goes, the higher prices go, and the higher GDP climbs (to a point). Eventually prices go too high, credit cards tap out and spending ceases. But, for a short time inflation makes GDP (as well as retail sales) look good.

Another factor that creates a bubble is the fact that government spending is actually included in the calculation of GDP. That’s right, every dollar of your tax money that the government wastes helps the establishment by propping up GDP numbers. This is why government spending increases will never stop – It’s too valuable for them to spend as a way to make the economy appear healthier than it is.

The REAL economy is eclipsing the fake economy

The bottom line is that Americans used to be able to ignore the warning signs because their bank accounts were not being directly affected. This is over. Now, every person in the country is dealing with a massive decline in buying power and higher prices across the board on everything – from food and fuel to housing and financial assets alike. Even the wealthy are seeing a compression to their profit and many are struggling to keep their businesses in the black.

The unfortunate truth is that the elections of 2024 will probably be the turning point at which the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Even if the public votes for change, the system is already broken and cannot be repaired without a complete overhaul.

We have consistently avoided taking our medicine and our disease has gotten worse and worse.

People have lost faith in the economy because they have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s. Even the stagflation crisis of the 1970s will likely pale in comparison to what is about to happen. On the bright side, at least a large number of Americans are aware of the threat, as opposed to the 1920s when the vast majority of people were utterly conned by the government, the banks and the media into thinking all was well. Knowing is the first step to preparing.

The second step is securing your own financial future – that’s where physical precious metals can play a role. Diversifying your savings with inflation-resistant, uninflatable assets whose intrinsic value doesn’t rely on a counterparty’s promise to pay adds resilience to your savings. That’s the main reason physical gold and silver have been the safe haven store-of-value assets of choice for centuries (among both the elite and the everyday citizen).

*  *  *

As the world moves away from dollars and toward Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), is your 401(k) or IRA really safe? A smart and conservative move is to diversify into a physical gold IRA. That way your savings will be in something solid and enduring. Get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group. No strings attached, just peace of mind. Click here to secure your future today.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 17:00

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Wendy’s teases new $3 offer for upcoming holiday

The Daylight Savings Time promotion slashes prices on breakfast.

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Daylight Savings Time, or the practice of advancing clocks an hour in the spring to maximize natural daylight, is a controversial practice because of the way it leaves many feeling off-sync and tired on the second Sunday in March when the change is made and one has one less hour to sleep in.

Despite annual "Abolish Daylight Savings Time" think pieces and online arguments that crop up with unwavering regularity, Daylight Savings in North America begins on March 10 this year.

Related: Coca-Cola has a new soda for Diet Coke fans

Tapping into some people's very vocal dislike of Daylight Savings Time, fast-food chain Wendy's  (WEN)  is launching a daylight savings promotion that is jokingly designed to make losing an hour of sleep less painful and encourage fans to order breakfast anyway.

Wendy's has recently made a big push to expand its breakfast menu.

Image source: Wendy's.

Promotion wants you to compensate for lost sleep with cheaper breakfast

As it is also meant to drive traffic to the Wendy's app, the promotion allows anyone who makes a purchase of $3 or more through the platform to get a free hot coffee, cold coffee or Frosty Cream Cold Brew.

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Available during the Wendy's breakfast hours of 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (which, naturally, will feel even earlier due to Daylight Savings), the deal also allows customers to buy any of its breakfast sandwiches for $3. Items like the Sausage, Egg and Cheese Biscuit, Breakfast Baconator and Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant normally range in price between $4.50 and $7.

The choice of the latter is quite wide since, in the years following the pandemic, Wendy's has made a concerted effort to expand its breakfast menu with a range of new sandwiches with egg in them and sweet items such as the French Toast Sticks. The goal was both to stand out from competitors with a wider breakfast menu and increase traffic to its stores during early-morning hours.

Wendy's deal comes after controversy over 'dynamic pricing'

But last month, the chain known for the square shape of its burger patties ignited controversy after saying that it wanted to introduce "dynamic pricing" in which the cost of many of the items on its menu will vary depending on the time of day. In an earnings call, chief executive Kirk Tanner said that electronic billboards would allow restaurants to display various deals and promotions during slower times in the early morning and late at night.

Outcry was swift and Wendy's ended up walking back its plans with words that they were "misconstrued" as an intent to surge prices during its most popular periods.

While the company issued a statement saying that any changes were meant as "discounts and value offers" during quiet periods rather than raised prices during busy ones, the reputational damage was already done since many saw the clarification as another way to obfuscate its pricing model.

"We said these menuboards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items," Wendy's said in its statement. "This was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants."

The Daylight Savings Time promotion, in turn, is also a way to demonstrate the kinds of deals Wendy's wants to promote in its stores without putting up full-sized advertising or posters for what is only relevant for a few days.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In Recent History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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