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There Has Been A Sudden, “Huge” Drop In COVID-Testing In The US

There Has Been A Sudden, "Huge" Drop In COVID-Testing In The US

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3 years ago

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There Has Been A Sudden, "Huge" Drop In COVID-Testing In The US Tyler Durden Mon, 11/16/2020 - 15:30

The positive covid vaccine results from Pfizer last Monday, and again from Moderna today, could not have come sooner (although if they had, the outcome of the presidential election would have been vastly different for Trump, whose claims that a vaccine would be discovered this year were met with mockery by NBC's fact checkers).

The reason why the good news was critical, is because as Bank of America writes, something big happened in the COVID crisis: a dramatic surge in new cases.

As BofA's Ethan Harris explains, on Wednesday the seven-day average hit 131k, well above the 67k peak this summer, while "even more striking is the acceleration in new case growth: from about 20% per week on the day of the election to more than 40% now." At that rate BofA calculates that new cases will more than double every two weeks. Even if the growth rate falls back to 20%, that would mean cases double every four weeks (remember what we said that the Fed needs a "new crisis" to double its QE? Well, we now know what that "crisis" is, especially since neither the Pfizer nor Moderna vaccines will be widely available until mid-2021.

So as part of its build up of the next crisis, BofA - which not long ago said that much of the surge in new cases was only due to increased testing - said that there doesn’t seem to be anything fluky about these numbers: "Cases are increasing in almost every state, and 36 states have made record highs in cases in the last week. This is quite different from the spring, when the northeast was hit very hard but most of the rest of the country was only mildly impacted."

Amusingly, refuting its own previous comments on the topic, Harris writes that "in the past, optimists [such as Harris himself] have argued that policymakers should not focus on case counts because testing and treatments have both improved significantly.  Therefore as long as hospitalizations and deaths do not surge, there is no need for additional restrictions. Unfortunately according to BofA, the news isn’t good here either.

According to the bank, "while testing did more than double, from ~930k in end-September to 2.1mn at the end of last month, if true infections were not rising this should have caused a big drop in the positivity ratio, since the incremental tests are likely to be done on people who are less likely to be infected." But the positivity ratio dropped only modestly, from 4.7% to 3.7% as testing doubled.

This, to the bank's strategists, "suggests that the increase in cases was driven much more by true infections than increased testing: assuming the same 4.7% positivity ratio for the first ~930k tests, the positivity ratio for the remaining tests would still have been 3.0%."

But what is even more remarkable than the exponential grind higher in new cases, is that there has suddenly been a huge drop in testing this month, accompanied by a surge in positivity ratios, and while BofA believes this is likely due to reporting issues, it's certainly something to keep a close eye on.

Just as troubling is that while treatments have improved significantly since the spring, the data suggests that there has not been further improvement recently, as BofA explains:

Consider the following simple exercise. The lag from cases to deaths is generally estimated to be three-to-six weeks and has tended to get longer over time. Chart 3 shows the estimated ratio of fatalities to cases using three- and six-week lag.

Using a three-week lag, the share of cases the lead to deaths is quite stable in recent months at about 1.5% to 2.0%. If we assume a six-week lag, the share has actually been trending up. That is particularly troubling because more testing is supposed to mean fewer fatalities per case as more people without symptoms are tested. Even if we assume a ratio of 1.5%, new cases over the last week would result in nearly 2,000 daily deaths a few weeks down the line. This is close to the peak in daily deaths from the
spring. 

Meanwhile, as we transition into the winter, cases will likely continue to rise as activities move indoors, social distancing fatigue gets worse, and people travel and gather with relatives for the holidays. According to BofA, "it seems reasonable that cases could double over the next month", which again, would be just the kind of crisis the Fed needs to expand QE.

And, as Harris adds, "in that case a flat case-fatality ratio might be too optimistic because the more the virus spreads, the harder it becomes to protect vulnerable people. Chart 3 shows that the fatality ratio has already started to rise in recent days."

What happens next is unclear.

Indeed, as BofA writes, "it's not clear what will stop this exponential expansion. The containment measures taken thus far have been very localized and limited. Unlike in the summer, the rise in cases does not seem to have prompted much change in individual behavior. On the other hand, "the good news is that indicators of daily activity show little, if any, impact on the economy. The bad news is that daily virus data suggest little, if any, impact on the virus."

In BofA's view, it will take longer for local officials to respond to the current surge: "Because the virus is spread across the country only a few places are already running out of hospital capacity. We also understand why Governors across the US are hesitating to reimpose strict restrictions."

On the other hand, the economic costs are only about to re-emerge: Many businesses did not survive the first round of shutdowns in the spring, and additional closures could be economically devastating. This is particularly true given the lack of fiscal support for consumers and businesses this time around. There are no PPP funds, bonus unemploment benefits or aid to states to cushion the blow. Strict restrictions also might not be politically popular, given growing social distancing fatigue. All of this will have to be weighed against the political appetite for a very bad public health outcome.

BofA's concerns are not merely theoretical, as recent events in Europe have demonstrated.

With Europe a few weeks ahead of the US in the virus cycle, the scenario described above has played out in France and particularly the UK. Both countries tried to ride out the outbreak without hurting the economy, before eventually capitulating when the situation in hospitals became very challenging and ultimately, both went on to impose strict lockdowns. As we showed last week, mobility has collapsed across Europe following the new round of shutdowns, and according to BofA, the new round of restrictions will likely lead a 5% annualized GDP contraction in 4Q in Euro area, and almost an 11% drop in output in the UK.

The US is well on its way to seeing its own "crisis": last week, the city of Chicago issued a stay-at-home advisory, with many more restrictions following across the country. And while so far high frequency indicators in the US show little adverse impact from partial shutdowns...

... whether the data hold up given the latest advisory remains to be seen.

Unfortunately, the most likely outcome is the one we "modeled" over the weekend: vaccines in process of rollout will not be made available until early/mid 2021 but by then the economy - either partially or fully locked down - will be deep in a double dip recession. And with no aid coming from a deadlocked Congress, it will be up to the Fed to step up. It will do so, by doubling its monthly QE from $120BN to $240BN, in the process also ensuring it has enough capacity to monetize the entire US fiscal deficit in 2021 which is projected to hit $3.5 trillion.

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

Published

10 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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Walmart joins Costco in sharing key pricing news

The massive retailers have both shared information that some retailers keep very close to the vest.

Published

13 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters. 

The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.

The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.

Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing

It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.

You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.

Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.

However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.

Walmart has seen inflation drop in many key areas.

Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Walmart sees lower prices

McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.

During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.

"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.

He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.

"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."

McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.

"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.

Costco sees almost no inflation impact

McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco  (COST)  Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.

The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.

"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.

Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.

"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.

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Walmart has really good news for shoppers (and Joe Biden)

The giant retailer joins Costco in making a statement that has political overtones, even if that’s not the intent.

Published

13 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters. 

The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.

The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.

Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing

It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.

You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.

Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.

However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.

Walmart has seen inflation drop in many key areas.

Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Walmart sees lower prices

McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.

During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.

"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.

He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.

"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."

McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.

"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.

Costco sees almost no inflation impact

McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco  (COST)  Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.

The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.

"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.

Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.

"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.

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