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The un(der)employment rate leads wage growth: 2023 update

  – by New Deal democratI had already planned on taking an updated look at wage growth today, but there was a little flutter on twitter about job…

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 - by New Deal democrat


I had already planned on taking an updated look at wage growth today, but there was a little flutter on twitter about job openings and last week’s Q1 wage and benefits data, so that sealed the deal.


To wit: as I used to write many times during the last expansion, wage growth is a long lagging indicator. It tends to increase only after unemployment (or even better, underemployment) falls to a level where labor begins to have some bargaining power. For the underemployment rate, this was about 9%. It took over half a decade after the Great Recession for the U6 rate to hit that marker:



So the below graph subtracts the U6 rate from 9% (red), so that any rate lower than 9% shows as a positive, compared with the YoY% change in  average nonsupervisory wages (light blue) and wages measured by the quarterly employment cost index (dark blue):



Because the underemployment rate went to over 20% in the first few months of the pandemic, the below continuation graph eliminates those months and picks up in the last quarter of 2020:



As the labor market got tighter, wages growth continued to accelerate.

Economist Jason Furman made a similar point several days ago comparing the job openings rate with wage growth. Here’s his graph:



A graph of the quarterly % changes in wage growth in nonsupervisory wages and the employment cost index does not particularly correlate with the quarterly % change in job openings:



But the YoY% change in wages do correlate with the absolute level of job openings:



As the level of employment continues to reach post-pandemic equilibrium, the level of job openings will continue to decline, and the underemployment rate will likely increase. This will cause wage growth to decelerate as well.

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ProShares prepares to launch unique Short Ether Strategy ETF

ProShares’ SETH ETF will start trading soon, following the first Ethereum futures ETFs by about two weeks.
ProShares introduced a trio…

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ProShares' SETH ETF will start trading soon, following the first Ethereum futures ETFs by about two weeks.

ProShares introduced a trio of Ethereum futures ETFs in the recent weeks. Presently, the company is gearing up to provide a distinctive offering.

ProShares' Short Ether Strategy ETF (SETH) from the fund group is poised to commence trading shortly, following the debut of the initial Ethereum futures ETFs by about two weeks.

SETH, scheduled for listing on the NYSE Arca exchange, aims to achieve daily investment outcomes that mirror the inverse of the daily S&P CME Ether Futures Index performance, as indicated in a filing made on Friday, Oct. 13.

The fund does not engage in direct shorting of ether (ETH); rather, it seeks to capitalize on potential declines in the asset's value, as stated in the prospectus. On Friday, the price of ETH stood at approximately $1,540, reflecting a decrease of approximately 6% over the past week.

Screenshot of the ProShares SETH filing     Source: SEC

ProShares anticipates that the registration statement for SETH will become effective on Oct. 15 and plans to introduce the fund in early November, as reported by Blockworks.

However, the three existing ProShares ether futures funds — including two that invest in both ether and bitcoin futures contracts — debuted on Oct. 2 alongside similar products by VanEck and Bitwise.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission approved ether futures ETFs two years following the introduction of the initial bitcoin futures ETF, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which entered the market in Oct. 2021.

Related: SEC reportedly won’t appeal court decision on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

ProShares continued its release of bitcoin futures ETFs with the Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITI) in June 2022. As of now, BITO has accumulated around $850 million in assets, while BITI has approximately $75 million.

In August, Cointelegraph reported that Ether futures ETFs may be approved in October, causing an 11% spike in ETH prices at the time.

Magazine: Bitcoin ETF optimist and Worldcoin skeptic Gracy Chen: Hall of Flame

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SEC reportedly won’t appeal court decision on Grayscale Bitcoin ETF

If true, the SEC will need to review and decide on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. If denied, Grayscale could appeal the decision.

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If true, the SEC will need to review and decide on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF application. If denied, Grayscale could appeal the decision.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission reportedly has no plans to appeal the recent court decision that favored Grayscale Investments. The ruling requires the SEC to review the firm’s spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) application.

The SEC’s supposed decision not to appeal the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeal’s ruling was highlighted in an Oct. 13 report from Reuters, which cited “a source familiar with the matter.”

Bloomberg analysts also expect the SEC not to appeal to the Supreme Court but emphasized that this doesn’t necessarily mean Grayscale’s application is set to be approved.

If the reports are true, the SEC will need to follow the court’s August order and review Grayscale’s application to change its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

According to Reuters, the appeals court is expected to issue a mandate specifically outlining how its ruling should be “executed” by the SEC.

Commenting on the developments, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted via X that:

“I do not think they will appeal to the Supreme Court either. Dialogue between Grayscale and SEC should begin next week. Hoping for more info on next steps sometime next week or week after?”

Moving forward, Seyffart suggested that it is likely that “we will find out in the next week (or two)” what the deadline is for the SEC to approve or deny Grayscale’s spot BTC ETF application.

If the SEC were to deny the application, Grayscale could then appeal that decision, dragging the process out even longer.

Related: Bitcoin price gets new $25K target as SEC decision day boosts GBTC

As it stands, around seven spot Bitcoin ETF applications have been put before the SEC that are awaiting a decision from the regulator.

In a separate preceding X post on Oct. 13, Seyffart reiterated his view that there is a 90% chance that a spot Bitcoin ETF application will get approved in January 2024, specifically the application from Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest.

Seyffart and Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, also previously suggested that there is a 75% chance that an application will get approved in 2023.

Magazine: Hall of Flame: Crypto lawyer Irina Heaver on death threats, lawsuit predictions

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Coinbase continues push to compel SEC to act on crypto rulemaking petition

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal has once again called for a mandamus to compel the SEC to respond to the firm’s crypto rulemaking petition.

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Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal has once again called for a mandamus to compel the SEC to respond to the firm’s crypto rulemaking petition.

Coinbase has doubled down on its push for a court order compelling the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to act on the firm’s crypto rulemaking petition.

Coinbase wants a mandamus issued within 30 days to compel the SEC to give an official answer on whether it will accept or deny the petition.

The SEC submitted a long-awaited status update on Oct. 12, vaguely stating that “commission staff provided a recommendation” to the SEC over Coinbase’s petition but did not divulge any further details.

In an Oct. 13 post on X (formerly Twitter), Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal slammed the SEC for dragging its heels and called for a mandamus to force the SEC into adequately outlining its intentions.

Grewal also shared Coinbase’s response to the SEC update that it filed with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit.

“The SEC’s unilluminating report is mere bureaucratic pantomime and confirms that nothing short of mandamus will prompt the agency to take its obligations seriously. It took more than a year and an order from this Court to elicit even a staff-level recommendation,” the response reads, adding that:

“The Commission has resolved not to conduct the rulemaking Coinbase requested, and it will exploit every bureaucratic artifice in its arsenal to forestall judicial review so long as the Court allows it.”
Coinbase’s response to the SEC update. Source: Grewal/X

Coinbase initially filed the rulemaking petition in July 2022, requesting the SEC to “propose and adopt rules” to govern the crypto market, including potential rules to clearly outline which digital assets fall under the definition of securities.

After the SEC failed to respond, Coinbase filed a petition for mandamus nine months later, seeking the court to compel the SEC to give a “yes or no” answer.

Related: Coinbase spot trading volume falls by 52% compared to 2022: Report

However, the SEC has fired back multiple times, refuting the need to meet Coinbase’s requirements and asking the court to deny Coinbase’s petition for mandamus.

In mid-June, the SEC asked the court for 120 days to respond to the rulemaking petition. Such a timeline suggests that the agency may have an answer by the end of October or early November.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

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