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Stocks rally post-Fed and as China prepares for the worst with Evergrande, plethora of rate decisions, bitcoin rises

US stocks are higher as investors anticipate that a November Fed taper announcement does not necessarily mean higher interest rates next year and as China prepares to contain the potential fallout of an Evergrande collapse.  Yesterday, Wall Street thought

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US stocks are higher as investors anticipate that a November Fed taper announcement does not necessarily mean higher interest rates next year and as China prepares to contain the potential fallout of an Evergrande collapse.  Yesterday, Wall Street thought the Fed was somewhat hawkish as they signaled they can start reversing its pandemic stimulus programs and may be ready to deliver an interest rate hike at the end of next year.   A wrath of rate decisions show the global economic recovery has some central banks (BOE, Norges) ready to remove accommodation, while most (SARB, SNB, Philippines, and Taiwan) are still waiting for further progress in their recoveries.

Since the Fed still thinks inflation will be transitory, even if tapering is exhausted in the middle of next year, “liftoff” on interest rates is not a given for 2022.  The Fed’s dots showed a split over a 2022 rate hike and now 3-4 hikes in 2023. Wall Street should take these dot plots with a grain of salt and interpret them as dovish as leadership members will keep rates steady in 2022 and that unless inflation gets out of control only a couple of hikes in 2023.  The Fed never gets their rate hike forecasts right, which could suggest they may be too optimistic.

The latest round of global flash PMIs broadly showed downside surprises confirmed we are in a September slowdown.  Earlier in Europe, manufacturing across the euro zone showed a deceleration but still remained in confidently in expansion territory.  The US flash PMIs painted a picture that the slowdown could continue if supply chain bottleneck issues are not resolved.  Risk appetite may have gotten a boost from the weaker PMI data as slowing economic data will likely influence both the Fed and ECB in slowly removing stimulus.

Initial jobless claims rose for a second straight week, but the trend is still heading in the right direction.  September comes with seasonal factors that impact claims data so investors might not give this report much attention.

The White House is holding a third chip summit as concerns over the shortage of semiconductor chips has not improved.  Apple, Intel, Samsung, and car markers will likely see legislation formed to help spur new efforts to increase production.  Any breakthroughs from this summit could provide support in the Fed argument that inflation will be transitory.

Evergrande

Evergrande still remains the biggest risk event on the table.  The systemic pain from the blowing up of Evergrande will be contained, but who will bear the brunt of the losses.  The news flow for China’s second largest real estate developer has been fluid.  The latest round of news said that Evergrande may have a path to restructure. Then we heard that Evergrande was told not to default.  Lastly, it seems China is considering not bailing Evergrande out and wants local governments to prepare for the worse case outcome.

If Evergrande fails, the exposure outside of China appears limited, and since the government will do whatever it takes to contain it, if China is successful, global risk appetite may not be dealt that much of a blow.

Central Banks

SNB
The Swiss National Bank did not deliver any surprises and kept monetary policy unchanged and reiterated they ready to intervene in the FX market to counter rising pressure on the franc.  The SNB did acknowledge they are monitoring any spillovers from Evergrande as safe-haven flows could intensify if China was not successful in thwarting contagion risks. The inflation forecasts were revised higher but nothing that would trigger a change in monetary policy.

Norges

Norway’s central bank (Norges) became the first G10 country to deliver an interest rate increase during the COVID-19 pandemic.  The statement said that the policy rate will most likely be raised further in December.  The economy is thriving as the economic upswing will likely continue through autumn.  The bank raised their mainland 2022 GDP forecast from 4.1% to 4.5%.

BOE

The British pound surged after the BOE rate decision showed policymakers are concerned about inflation.  Rate hike expectations dramatically moved forward to March 2022.  Currency traders rushed to buy sterling after Deputy Governor Ramsden delivered his first dissent over the bond buying program, joining Saunders.

CBRT
Turkey President Erdogan was pleased with the CBRT’s decision to cut interest rates.  Economists widely expected the central bank to keep rates steady, so the currency reaction was severe.  Following the 100 basis point surprise cut, the lira tumbled to a record low.  Lira volatility will remain elevated.

Two days ago, the cryptoverse got nervous after bitcoin fell below the USD 40,000 level for the first time since early August.  That was a key level that was defended and will likely see some follow through buying.  Fed Chair Powell delivered a minor update over the research paper on central bank digital currencies (CBDC), stablecoins and cryptocurrencies, noting that it would come out soon.  Powell said that the Fed will “soon” start tapering its asset purchases, which indicates that it could start at the November 3rd FOMC meeting.  The Fed could that paper any moment, but at the very latest crypto traders might have to wait till November.

The regulatory risks remain for crypto and that should keep bitcoins gains over the short-term capped around the USD 50,000 level.  If momentum grows that a bitcoin ETF in the US is nearing, that could pave the way for a major breakout.

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International

United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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International

Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Comments on February Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the …

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The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.   The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%.

Leisure and hospitality gained 58 thousand jobs in February.  At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 17 thousand jobs since February 2020.  So, leisure and hospitality has now essentially added back all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. 

Construction employment increased 23 thousand and is now 547 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. 

Manufacturing employment decreased 4 thousand jobs and is now 184 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.


Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in February to 83.5% from 83.3% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.

Both are above pre-pandemic levels.

Average Hourly Wages

WagesThe graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in February.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

Part Time WorkersFrom the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 million from 4.42 million in February. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Unemployed Over 26 WeeksThis graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.203 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.277 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million.

This is close to pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through February 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 38 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
Year EndedStreak, Months
12019100
2199048
3200746
4197945
52024138
6 tie194333
6 tie198633
6 tie200033
9196729
10199525
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline monthly jobs number was above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.  The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%.  Another solid report.

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