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Revised: 90 Analysts Now Forecast Gold Going To $3,000 & Beyond!

Many analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One analyst even claims that gold will spike…

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6 months ago

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More and more analysts are projecting that gold will be going at least as high as $3,000/ozt over the next few years. One even claims that gold will spike up to $87,500/ozt.! Below is an updated list of their names and stated rationale for each forecast.

By Lorimer Wilson, editor of munKNEE.com – Your Key To Making Money!

  1. Jim Sinclair: $50,000 in 2025 and to $87,500 by 2032
    • In a recent YouTube video Sinclair said that, with so many U.S. Dollars being printed to uphold the economy as a result of COVID-19, that Gold will rise to $50,000/ozt. (i.e. go “straight up” in Sinclair’s words) at the end of the 45-year gold cycle which is coming up in 2025 and rise up to $87,500/ozt. by the end of 2032. Source
  2. Stephen Leeb: +$35,000 by 2032
    • “I wouldn’t be surprised if everything related to commodities performs even better this time around – albeit with sharper volatility – than in the earlier decade…[and that goes for] my nominal 10-year target of $35,000 [as well].” Source
  3. Egon von Greyerz: $35,000 (No date specified)
    • I would not be surprised to see a 0.1 [Dow/Gold] ratio. That could lead to 3,500 Dow and $35,000 gold.” Source
  4. Erik Lytikainen: $25,000 by 2030
    • “We will not be surprised to see $25,000 per troy ounce of gold by the year 2030.  It will likely be a volatile ride higher, with large drawdowns along the way.” Source
  5. Martin Armstrong: $25,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold should theoretically sell for $25,000/ozt., given the monetary prolificacy since 1980”…”  Source
  6. Pierre Lassonde: $25,000 by 2049
    • Lassonde says gold could hit $25,000 in 26 years. Source
  7. Avi Gilburt: $25,000 over the next decade plus
    • “I think the math shows gold futures can, and will, surpass $25,000  over the next decade plus.” Source
  8.  Hugo Salinas Price: $22,000 – $50,000 (No date specified)
    • Price says the current melt-down of the world’s debt bubble is likely to continue and he believes that the salvaging of all debt and derivatives might require a gold price as high as between $22,000 and $50,000 per troy ounce.  Source
  9. Frank Barbera: $20,000 to $50,000 sometime between 2032 and 2037
    • Barbera sees precious metals…starting a new secular bull market that could last 10 to 15 years. He sees potential for gold to go as high as $20,000/ozt. or even $50,000 ozt. in that period. Source
  10. Goldrunner: $20,000 between mid-2028 and end of 2029
    • As a result of the recent massive paper money printing, our chart work suggests that gold could possibly spike up to as high as $20,000 per troy ounce – or even a bit higher – some time between mid-2028 and the end of 2029.” Source
  11. Peter Schiff: $20,000 (No date specified)
    • The value of gold could rise tenfold and hit $20,000 per troy ounce in the event of a collapse of confidence in the US dollar and runaway inflation.  Source
  12. Briton Hill: $20,000 sometime between 2026 and 2031
    • “You can’t produce trillions of dollars with 0% interest rates and not introduce inflation. Long-term, we could be entering a cycle similar to the 1970s, where the precious metal sector rose by thousands of percentage points, and if we see something like that happen again in the next 5-10 years, we could easily see…$20,000 gold.” Source
    • ————————-
  13. Addison Wiggin: $12,000+ (No date specified)
    • “The gold coverage ratio has risen above 100% twice during 20th century,” most recently at gold’s 1980 peak. “Were this to happen today, the value of an ounce of gold would exceed $12,000.”  Source
  14. Leigh Goehring: $10,000-$15,000 by 2027-28
    • “Our target is between $10,000-$15,000 per troy ounce.,,[by] 2027-28.” Source
  15.  James Rickards: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “$10,000 per troy ounce is not pie in the sky. It’s not a number I pulled out of a hat to get headlines. It’s the actual mathematical implied non-deflationary price of gold.”  Source
  16. Daniel Oliver: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “The money to push gold over $10,000 per troy ounce has already been printed and now they are going to print more…No doubt strong fiscal and monetary intervention may extend its life for a time, but then the ultimate price objective for gold will then be markedly higher.”  Source
  17. Max Keiser: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • To deal with the disaster of “trash fiat money” choking the global economy, a new gold standard will need to be introduced “and to make it work, we will see gold’s price top $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  18. Adam O’Dell: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “The price is guaranteed to hit near $10,000/ozt..”  Source
  19. David Smith: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold could reach US$10,000 per troy ounce by the end of the bull market.” Source
  20. Bob Kirtley: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “My target has been $10,000/ozt since June 2006, so at that point, an exit strategy will be executed, hopefully with some handsome profits.” Source
  21. Arthur Hayes: +$10,000 (No date specified)
    • He argues that central banks will choose to load up on gold instead of dollars causing gold to rise beyond $10,000/ozt..  Source
  22. Chris Waltzek: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • Waltzek maintains that $10,000 gold may merely be the opening salvo of an explosive new bull market for PMs. Source
  23.  Willem Middelkoop: $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “Once gold starts to run, and especially in a reevaluation scenario, it will go up 5x, 8x, 10x, so expect gold to move to $10,000.” Source
    • —————–
  24. Gov Capital: $8,531 by 2025
    • “5 year gold forecast: $8530.74/ozt.” Source
  25. Florian Grummes: $8,000 to $9,000 sometime between 2025 and 2030
    • “We could end up having gold at $8,000 to $9,000 per troy ounce in five to 10 years.” Source
  26. Robin Griffiths: $8,000 (No date specified)
    • Griffiths says $8,000 gold is not unreasonable because China and India are becoming more dominant and to them, gold is real money.  Source
  27. Graham Summers: $8,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold first rallied about 630% from 2003-2011. It then corrected about 43% before bottoming in 2015 at $1,060/ozt.. If it follows a similar second leg up this time around, it’s going to ~$8,000 per troy ounce before it peaks.”  Source
  28.  Jan Nieuwenhuijs: $8,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “A long-term gold valuation model, which assumes gold will account for the majority of international reserves, suggests the gold price to exceed $8,000 in the coming decade…and if central banks stockpile 51% of their reserves in gold, the price of gold would reach $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  29. Hubert Moolman: $7,758 (No date specified)
    • “In my opinion, it is virtually guaranteed that gold will again catch up with the Dow’s performance since 1913, and significantly surpass it just like in the 70s. This means we will likely see gold reach $7,758/ozt. (in the near future) and eventually go on to reach multiples of that high.” Source
  30. AG Thorson: $7,500 – $10,000 by end of 2030
    • “By the end of this decade, we expect gold to reach $7,500 – $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  31. Chris Vermeulen: $7,400 by 2027
  32. Charlie Morris: $7,166 by the end of 2029
    • :A bullish target of $7,166/ozt. is both logical and plausible.”  Source
  33. Mike McGlone: $7,000 by 2025
    • “From 2001-2011, gold advanced about 7.5 times, which if repeated would bring it to around $7,000/ozt. in 2025.” Source
    • —————–
  34. Dominic Frisby: $5,700 (no date specified)
    • “At $1,920/oz gold is a lot cheaper today than it was when it was $1,920/oz back in 2011. It’s a third of the price. To get back to those equivalent levels, assuming no change in the price of the S&P500, gold would have to triple. I like the sound of $5,700/oz gold!” Source
  35. Equity Management Academy: $5,500 in 2024
    • “Gold will then hit the delusion phase and in a new paradigm gold will hit $5,500 in 2024. After that high, gold will enter another bull trap and fear will drive gold down below $4,000. Gold will then return to its mean at about $1,500 to $2,000.” Source
  36. Chris Wood: $5,386 (No date specified)
    • “The gold price of US$850/ozt. at the peak of the last secular bull market in gold in January 1980 was then equivalent to 9.9% of US disposable income per capita. The gold price is now just 3.6% of US disposable income per capita. Therefore, to reach 9.9% of US disposable income per capita means gold should rise to US$5,386/ozt..” Source
  37. Scott Minerd: $5,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “As chaotic price swings of the crypto world push investors back into gold and silver, they will start to build momentum, with the ultimate gold price target set at $5,000-$10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  38. Moe Zulfiqar: $5,000 by 2030
    • ” It wouldn’t be shocking to see gold at $5,000 per troy ounce, or more, by 2030. ” Source
  39. Rob McEwen: $5,000 (No date specified)
    • The founder of Goldcorp Inc., McEwen predicts that gold will soar to $5,000 a troy ounce, bolstered by a weaker dollar and waning demand for trendy assets like pot stocks. Source
  40. J.C. Parets: $5,000 (no date specified)
    • Parets sees the price of gold bullion heading towards $5,000 a troy ounce. Source
  41. Michael Lee: $5,000 (no date specified)
    • “We’re on the cusp of a breakout where gold can go up to $5,000. I think the dollar is getting near its peak. Once you see that dollar reversal, once gold gets above $2,000, you could really see it start to take off…considering the amount of money we print, I have no idea why gold is not above $4,000 right now.” Source 
  42. Victor Dergunov: $5,000 by 2024
    • “Gold at $5,000/ozt. in 3-5 years seems plausible, and it is likely to continue to go higher after that.” Source
  43. Dan Popescu: $5,000 by 2025
    • “Gold price could break above $5,000/ozt. in the next 5 years.” Source
  44. David Morgan: $5,000 before the end of the decade
    • “Gold could hit $5,000/ozt., especially as the greenback loses purchasing power.” Source
  45. Ralph Wakerly: $5,000 sometime between 2025 and 2028
    • Believes gold could easily reach $5,000/ozt., maybe more, within 3-6 years. Source
  46. Brian Whitfield: $5,000 by 2030
    • “I feel I am safe, and being conservative, in saying that gold should be trading between $3000 – $5000 per troy ounce in ten years. Should the US dollar fail and/or the US dollar loses the coveted global reserve currency status and/or even the loss of the petrodollar, gold could hit these level far sooner.” Source
  47. Ronald-Peter Stoeferle and Mark Valek: $4,800 to $8,900 by 2030
    • “The proprietary valuation model shows a gold price of $4,800/ozt. at the end of this decade, even with conservative calibration. Should money supply growth develop in a similar inflationary manner to that of the 1970s, a gold price of $8,900/ozt. is conceivable by 2030.” Source
  48. Juerg Kiener: $4,000 in 2023
    • Gold prices could surge to $4,000 per ounce in 2023 as interest rate hikes and recession fears keep markets volatile. Source
  49. Jason Hamlin: $4,000 to $8,000 by 2025
    • “We fully expect to see the gold price close out the year 2025 somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  50. Rick Rule: $4,000 – $6,000 by 2027
    • Rule says that in past bull cycles, gold has climbed at least seven-fold, and that it is very likely that gold will double or triple by five years’ time. Source
  51. Stan Bharti: $4,000-$5,000 in this cycle
    • Believes gold is going to between $4,000-$5,000/ozt. in this cycle. Source
  52. Frank Holmes: $4,000 by 2023
    • “The yellow metal is set to rally in the same fashion as in the aftermath of the last recession and, if cycles are exactly the same, gold could go to $4,000/ozt.”. Source
  53. Michael Cuggino: $4,000 (No date specified)
    • Cuggino says it would “not be an unreasonable move” for gold to breach $4,000/ozt..  Source
  54. Jordan Roy-Byrne: $4,000 by end of 2024
    • “Gold will hit my $4,000 target by the end of 2024.” Source
  55. GoldPriceForecasts.com: $4,000 in 2031. Source
    • ——————————-
  56. Robert Kiyosaki: $3,800 in 2023; $5,000 by 2025
    • “Giant crash coming. Depression possible. Fed forced to print billions in fake money. By 2025 gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000. Why? Because faith in U.S. dollar, fake money, will be destroyed. Gold & silver [are] God’s money. Bitcoin [is] people’s $”. Source
  57. Michele Schneider: $3,000-$3,500 by 2024; $5,000 by 2025
    • “Every time we look at the price of gold, we take one step closer to realizing our prediction of the $3000-$3500 price target by 2024 and not ruling out a trip to $5000 by 2025.” Source
  58. Don Durrett: $3,000 to $10,000 (No date specified)
    • “My price target for gold is somewhere between $3,000 and $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  59. Investors Alley: $3,000 -$10,000 by 2028
    • “Given the current environment of rising inflation, negative real yields, a weaker dollar, and ongoing monetary dilution, gold should rise to $3,000 -$10,000/ozt. in 5 years time.” Source
  60. Jeff Clark: $3,000 to $10,000 by 2025
      • “Potential 5-year high: $3,000 to $10,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  61. Geraldo Del Real: $3,000 to $5,000 (No date specified)
    • “I actually think $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce is very reasonable.” Source
  62. Thomas Kaplan: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2030
    • “Gold prices could rally as high as $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce within a decade.” Source
  63. David Rosenberg: $3,000 to $5,000 (No date specified)
    • “A $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce target is justified based on the facts we have today.”  Source
  64. Diego Parrilla: $3,000 to $5,000 sometime between 2023 and 2025
    • “Unprecedented monetary stimulus is fueling asset bubbles and corporate debt addiction — rendering interest-rate hikes impossible without an economic crash. In the ensuing market mania gold could rise to $3,000 to $5,000 per troy ounce in the next three to five years.” Source
  65. Kirk Spano: $3,000 to $5,000 by 2025
    • “$3,000/ozt. mid-decade [with] upside potential to $5,000 per troy ounce.” Source
  66. Shaun Djie: $3,000 to $4,000 by the end of 2029
    • “In the next 10 years, gold will continue to be volatile. Gold could trade anywhere between the levels of $3,000 or $4,000 per troy ounce in the next ten years given how much cash will be potentially put into the economy.” Source
  67. Adam Hamilton: $3,450 (No date specified)
    • “Gold prices ought to at least double before this raging inflation runs its course, which would carry it up around $3,450 sometime in the coming years!” Source
  68. Jan van Eck: $3,400 (No date specified)
    • Jan van Eck, Van Eck Associates CEO, has a target for gold of $3,400 an ounce, based on the idea that deflationary market environments with similar levels of government stimulus and systemic risk have been bullish for gold in the past. Source
  69. Joe Foster: $3,200 to $3,400 (No date specified)
    • “We…believe this to be a deflationary cycle and both recent deflationary gold bull markets suggest that a price over $3,000 per troy ounce is reasonable. In fact, if one believes, as we do, that the current central bank stimulus to fight the impacts of the COVID-19 virus, along with elevated levels of systemic risks, are similar to those during the global financial crisis, then $3,400/ozt. may be the target for this bull market.” Source
  70. Charles Gibson: $3,281 (No date specified)
    • “Since 1967, the price of gold has shown an extremely strong (0.909) correlation with the total U.S. monetary base. The more dollars that either are, or could be, in circulation, the higher the expected gold price. With the total US monetary base now closing in on US$5.5tn the gold price could very reasonably be expected to rise to as high as US$3,281/ozt.” Source
  71. Eric Fry: $3,000 to $4,000 (No date specified)
    • ‘When this ballgame ends, gold with be trading for at least $3,000 a troy ounce, and an extra-inning affair would not surprise me — lifting the gold price past $4,000/ozt..” Source
  72. WingCapital Investments: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Using the post-2008 bull market as a guideline during which gold more than doubled within the ensuing 3 years, $3,000/ozt. would be a reasonable long-term target in our opinion.” Source
  73. Brian Lundin: $3,000 by 2024
    • “I think we’ll set a new record in real terms, exceeding $3,000/ozt., by 2024, or so.” Source
  74. Byron King: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “I think Bank of America is on track. I don’t think there’s any question gold will see $3,000/ozt.. As with all things in life, it’s just a question of how long it will take.” Source
  75.  Ben Morris and Drew McConnell: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “$3,000 per troy ounce isn’t a long shot.” Source
  76.  Stewart Thomson: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Queen Gold is assured of launching above the key $2,000/ozt. price zone, ready to begin a rocket blast towards my medium-term $3,000/ozt. target!”  Source
  77. John Ing: $3,000+ (No date specified)
    • “We expect gold to trade higher than $3,000 a troy ounce due to a lower greenback and solvency concerns.”  Source
  78. SomaBull: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “The money supply is quickly heading to levels that would support a $3,000/ozt. gold price well in excess of fair value by the time this bull market is exhausted.” Source
  79. Adam Trexler: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “With inflation coming, we’ll see gold over $2,500/ozt. in real dollar terms but we’ll see a devaluing of the dollar…[and] if you see 10% inflation, the dollar number value of gold could be much higher. I don’t think $3,000/ozt. gold is impossible and, if we see a hyperinflation scenario, it could be significantly higher.”  Source
  80. Lawrence Lepard: $3,000 by mid-2024
    • Lepard“is betting that gold hits $3,000 within the next two years. Source
  81. Tony Dobra: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • Dobra believes the situation in Ukraine should see gold topping $2,100/ozt. later in 2023 and then that, anything is possible with $3,000/ozt. more likely than not. Source
  82. Trevor Gerszt: $3,000 by 2025
    • Gerszt believes the prospect for $3,000 gold by mid-decade is not outlandish. Source
  83. Clem Chambers: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “As many gold bulls remain confused about why gold isn’t already heading for $3,000, the question really is, what can possibly stop it? The Federal Reserve’s tightening must be in the price, so all that is left is the open questions of European conflict and the length of time that inflation will run hot.”  Source
  84.  David Garofalo: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “Gold’s all-time peak in real terms was actually achieved in 1981 when the nominal gold price was $850 an ounce, that would be $3,000 an ounce in 2021 dollars. That’s what I think I see in this cycle.”  Source
  85. Bloomberg Intelligence: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “There is a good chance for gold to even reach $3,000 an ounce during this bull run, according to our charts.” Source
  86. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank: $3,000 in 2023
    • Not only is the Fed expecting to end its tightening cycle, but the threat of a global recession will force central banks to pump liquidity back into global financial markets which should drive gold prices to at least $3,000 in 2023. Source
  87. Zach Scheidt: $3,000 in 2023
    • ‘Lower rates could trigger a perfect environment for gold to trade up to $3,000 (or even higher).” Source
  88. Mike Fuljenz: $2,500 to $3,000+ in 2023
    • “My conservative estimate would put it between $2,500 an ounce and just over $3,000 an ounce but it wouldn’t hurt my feelings to see it even higher, so now is the time to buy gold and silver. Source 
  89. Nouriel Roubini: $3,000 by 2028 
    • “Gold to rise by 10 percent per year over five years, resulting in a gold price of over $3,000 per ounce by 2028, an overall return of 60 percent.” Source
  90. Chris Kimble: $3,000 (No date specified)
    • “If/When Gold breaks above $2,000, it will clear the way for a rally towards $3,000. Wow! Stay tuned!” Source

What do you think of the above price forecasts? Have your say in the “Comments” section below. Also, if I have missed other analyst forecasts (they must be within the last year) please mentioned them below and I will include them in a future article.

Editor’s Note:

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

Published

7 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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8 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives…

Published

11 hours ago

on

March 8, 2024

By

Economic Earthquake Ahead? The Cracks Are Spreading Fast

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

One of my favorite false narratives floating around corporate media platforms has been the argument that the American people “just don’t seem to understand how good the economy really is right now.” If only they would look at the stats, they would realize that we are in the middle of a financial renaissance, right? It must be that people have been brainwashed by negative press from conservative sources…

I have to laugh at this notion because it’s a very common one throughout history – it’s an assertion made by almost every single political regime right before a major collapse. These people always say the same things, and when you study economics as long as I have you can’t help but throw up your hands and marvel at their dedication to the propaganda.

One example that comes to mind immediately is the delusional optimism of the “roaring” 1920s and the lead up to the Great Depression. At the time around 60% of the U.S. population was living in poverty conditions (according to the metrics of the decade) earning less than $2000 a year. However, in the years after WWI ravaged Europe, America’s economic power was considered unrivaled.

The 1920s was an era of mass production and rampant consumerism but it was all fueled by easy access to debt, a condition which had not really existed before in America. It was this illusion of prosperity created by the unchecked application of credit that eventually led to the massive stock market bubble and the crash of 1929. This implosion, along with the Federal Reserve’s policy of raising interest rates into economic weakness, created a black hole in the U.S. financial system for over a decade.

There are two primary tools that various failing regimes will often use to distort the true conditions of the economy: Debt and inflation. In the case of America today, we are experiencing BOTH problems simultaneously and this has made certain economic indicators appear healthy when they are, in fact, highly unstable. The average American knows this is the case because they see the effects everyday. They see the damage to their wallets, to their buying power, in the jobs market and in their quality of life. This is why public faith in the economy has been stuck in the dregs since 2021.

The establishment can flash out-of-context stats in people’s faces, but they can’t force the populace to see a recovery that simply does not exist. Let’s go through a short list of the most faulty indicators and the real reasons why the fiscal picture is not a rosy as the media would like us to believe…

The “miracle” labor market recovery

In the case of the U.S. labor market, we have a clear example of distortion through inflation. The $8 trillion+ dropped on the economy in the first 18 months of the pandemic response sent the system over the edge into stagflation land. Helicopter money has a habit of doing two things very well: Blowing up a bubble in stock markets and blowing up a bubble in retail. Hence, the massive rush by Americans to go out and buy, followed by the sudden labor shortage and the race to hire (mostly for low wage part-time jobs).

The problem with this “miracle” is that inflation leads to price explosions, which we have already experienced. The average American is spending around 30% more for goods, services and housing compared to what they were spending in 2020. This is what happens when you have too much money chasing too few goods and limited production.

The jobs market looks great on paper, but the majority of jobs generated in the past few years are jobs that returned after the covid lockdowns ended. The rest are jobs created through monetary stimulus and the artificial retail rush. Part time low wage service sector jobs are not going to keep the country rolling for very long in a stagflation environment. The question is, what happens now that the stimulus punch bowl has been removed?

Just as we witnessed in the 1920s, Americans have turned to debt to make up for higher prices and stagnant wages by maxing out their credit cards. With the central bank keeping interest rates high, the credit safety net will soon falter. This condition also goes for businesses; the same businesses that will jump headlong into mass layoffs when they realize the party is over. It happened during the Great Depression and it will happen again today.

Cracks in the foundation

We saw cracks in the narrative of the financial structure in 2023 with the banking crisis, and without the Federal Reserve backstop policy many more small and medium banks would have dropped dead. The weakness of U.S. banks is offset by the relative strength of the U.S. dollar, which lures in foreign investors hoping to protect their wealth using dollar denominated assets.

But something is amiss. Gold and bitcoin have rocketed higher along with economically sensitive assets and the dollar. This is the opposite of what’s supposed to happen. Gold and BTC are supposed to be hedges against a weak dollar and a weak economy, right? If global faith in the dollar and in the U.S. economy is so high, why are investors diving into protective assets like gold?

Again, as noted above, inflation distorts everything.

Tens of trillions of extra dollars printed by the Fed are floating around and it’s no surprise that much of that cash is flooding into the economy which simply pushes higher right along with prices on the shelf. But, gold and bitcoin are telling us a more honest story about what’s really happening.

Right now, the U.S. government is adding around $600 billion per month to the national debt as the Fed holds rates higher to fight inflation. This debt is going to crush America’s financial standing for global investors who will eventually ask HOW the U.S. is going to handle that growing millstone? As I predicted years ago, the Fed has created a perfect Catch-22 scenario in which the U.S. must either return to rampant inflation, or, face a debt crisis. In either case, U.S. dollar-denominated assets will lose their appeal and their prices will plummet.

“Healthy” GDP is a complete farce

GDP is the most common out-of-context stat used by governments to convince the citizenry that all is well. It is yet another stat that is entirely manipulated by inflation. It is also manipulated by the way in which modern governments define “economic activity.”

GDP is primarily driven by spending. Meaning, the higher inflation goes, the higher prices go, and the higher GDP climbs (to a point). Eventually prices go too high, credit cards tap out and spending ceases. But, for a short time inflation makes GDP (as well as retail sales) look good.

Another factor that creates a bubble is the fact that government spending is actually included in the calculation of GDP. That’s right, every dollar of your tax money that the government wastes helps the establishment by propping up GDP numbers. This is why government spending increases will never stop – It’s too valuable for them to spend as a way to make the economy appear healthier than it is.

The REAL economy is eclipsing the fake economy

The bottom line is that Americans used to be able to ignore the warning signs because their bank accounts were not being directly affected. This is over. Now, every person in the country is dealing with a massive decline in buying power and higher prices across the board on everything – from food and fuel to housing and financial assets alike. Even the wealthy are seeing a compression to their profit and many are struggling to keep their businesses in the black.

The unfortunate truth is that the elections of 2024 will probably be the turning point at which the whole edifice comes tumbling down. Even if the public votes for change, the system is already broken and cannot be repaired without a complete overhaul.

We have consistently avoided taking our medicine and our disease has gotten worse and worse.

People have lost faith in the economy because they have not faced this kind of uncertainty since the 1930s. Even the stagflation crisis of the 1970s will likely pale in comparison to what is about to happen. On the bright side, at least a large number of Americans are aware of the threat, as opposed to the 1920s when the vast majority of people were utterly conned by the government, the banks and the media into thinking all was well. Knowing is the first step to preparing.

The second step is securing your own financial future – that’s where physical precious metals can play a role. Diversifying your savings with inflation-resistant, uninflatable assets whose intrinsic value doesn’t rely on a counterparty’s promise to pay adds resilience to your savings. That’s the main reason physical gold and silver have been the safe haven store-of-value assets of choice for centuries (among both the elite and the everyday citizen).

*  *  *

As the world moves away from dollars and toward Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), is your 401(k) or IRA really safe? A smart and conservative move is to diversify into a physical gold IRA. That way your savings will be in something solid and enduring. Get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group. No strings attached, just peace of mind. Click here to secure your future today.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 17:00

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