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Market Futures Surge On Hopes For A “Continuing Resolution”

This morning, market futures surged on hopes of a "continuing resolution" to avert a "shutdown." Last night the Democrats appeared to buckle under the pressure of a looming "shutdown" with Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader, suggesting a vote on…

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This morning, market futures surged on hopes of a “continuing resolution” to avert a “shutdown.” Last night the Democrats appeared to buckle under the pressure of a looming “shutdown” with Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader, suggesting a vote on a “Continuing Resolution (C.R.)” is forthcoming. The C.R., a stop-gap measure in place of a budget, will provide funding for the government through December 3rd. At that point, another C.R. will have to get passed to fund the rest of the fiscal year.

For the unfamiliar, before 2008, Congress would pass an actual budget itemizing spending needs that would get passed and funded. However, starting with the Obama administration, such arcane methods of managing government got dropped for the use of C.R.’s instead, which take last year’s spending and adds 8% to it. Such is why debts and deficits started to increase beginning in 2008 and continues today.

The good news is that with the threat of a “debt default” and “shutdown” removed, stocks look to rally sharply this morning.

What To Watch Today

Economy

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Initial jobless claimsweek ended September 25 (330,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Continuing claimsweek ended September 18 (2.800 million expected; 2.845 million during prior week)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.6% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate)
  • 9:45 a.m. ET: MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)

Earnings

Pre-market

  • 6:50 a.m. ET: CarMax (KMXis expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.87 per share on revenue of $6.88 billion 
  • 7:45 a.m. ET: Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBYis expected to report adjusted earnings of 52 cents per share on revenue of $2.06 billion

Post-market

  • 4:15 p.m. ET: Jefferies (JEFis expected to report adjusted earnings of 99 cents per share on revenue of $1.74 billion

Politics

  • Lawmakers appear to have a way to prevent the U.S. government from shutting down at 12:01 a.m. ET. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced that the Senate will vote by midday on a bill to fund the government until Dec. 3. The U.S. House of Representatives will follow and — hopefully before the deadline — the measure will be sent to President Biden for his signature.
  • Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before Congress today for the second time this week. On Tuesday, Yellen warned of “catastrophic economic consequences” if the debt ceiling is not raised by Oct. 18.

Courtesy of Yahoo

Stocks Holding Support At 100-dma

The market held its 100-dma yesterday as stocks mustered a very weak rally. Stocks need to muster a rally off of support and clear the 50-dma next week if bulls are to maintain control. Otherwise, every day the market remains weak, the greater the potential for a larger breakdown becomes.

As noted below, while our “money-flow” buy signal is intact, the MACD has yet to confirm the bullish signal. Such keeps us cautious near term and does not preclude another down-leg in the market currently. However, with the Democrats ready to fund the Government through December, such should take pressure off of the markets near term.

$14 Billion Into Quarter-End Pension Buying

While there are many reasons for the recent market volatility we mustn’t forget window dressing. At quarter-ends, money managers tend to “clean up” quarter-end holdings to appease client concerns. The recent uptick in inflation concerns, debt cap issues, and taper are reasons for said managers to sell some holdings and buy others.

It’s likely they will start buying back stocks and bonds today.

“With month- and quarter-end on deck, Goldman’s theoretical, “model-based” estimates are for a net $14 billion of US equities to buy from US pensions given the moves in equities and bonds over the month and quarter.

How does this stack up vs history? According to Goldman’s Gillian Hood, this ranks in the 36th percentile amongst all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over the past three years. In absolute terms, this falls below the three-year average absolute dollar value of $26bn worth of equities to be rebalanced.” – Zerohedge

Defense is not Working

As we discuss in our 3 Minutes on Markets video, bonds didn’t rally to help offset losses in stocks yesterday. While bonds and gold tend to historically provide diversification to an equity portfolio, such is not always the case. In fact, days like yesterday are recently becoming a little more common. The last 3 times the S&P fell by 2% or more in a day, the 10-year Treasury price, gold, and bitcoin also fell on the same day.

Rates Spike and Stocks Decline

Is Their Opportunity In The Nasdaq?

There are quite a few stocks in the Nasdaq in bear markets (down by 20%). Interesting list from MarketWatch.

Silver is not so Hot

The RIA Pro heat map below shows silver (-4%) and metals were among the worst-performing assets yesterday. As a result, materials were lower on the day.

Housing is Red Hot

Pending Home Sales rose 8.5% in August after two straight monthly declines. The change in year-over-year sales is still negative but the monthly trend is rising again as shown below. Per the National Association of Realtors President, Lawrence Yun: “rising inventory and moderating price conditions are bringing buyers back to the market.” 

His comment about moderating price conditions is debatable. Yesterday, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose another 1.5% monthly and is now up nearly 20% annually. Prior to the pandemic, the index rose approximately 3-6% a year. At the housing market’s peak in 2006, the Case-Shiller Index rose 15% annually.

Is Powell On His Way Out?

Extreme stock and bond market valuations are largely predicated on the Fed’s ability to provide excessive liquidity via low rates and QE. Given confidence in the Fed is paramount to valuations we offer some concern at recent disclosures implicating Fed members. In particular, are those of Dallas President Robert Kaplan. The quote below is from Wall Street On Parade.

Each of Kaplan’s financial disclosures forms dating back to when he first became Dallas Fed President on September 8, 2015 (which we obtained directly from the Dallas Fed), show that Kaplan was trading in and out of S&P 500 futures, a highly speculative form of trading used by hedge funds and day traders.

Given Kaplan had access to non-public information, the allegations are serious. Over the coming days and weeks, we need to ascertain if investors care and further if Congress will take any action that might inhibit the Fed’s policy thought process.

Another consideration is whether or not the disclosures provide President Biden a reason to nominate Lael Brainard instead of granting Powell a second term. The graph below shows the odds favor Powell, but they have come down in recent days.

Will Yields Surprise To The Upside?

The graph below, courtesy of Ed Yardeni, shows the strong correlation between the Citi Economic Suprise Index and ten-year UST yield changes. The Citi index measures economic data estimates versus actual readings. Over time the index oscillates as economists move back and forth from overestimating economic activity to underestimating it. As shown below in red, economists have been over-optimistic recently but given this data series in the past, it is likely reaching a point where economists start under forecasting economic data. If this proves true, yields are likely to rise over the coming weeks.

The post Market Futures Surge On Hopes For A “Continuing Resolution” appeared first on RIA.

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Shipping company files surprise Chapter 7 bankruptcy, liquidation

While demand for trucking has increased, so have costs and competition, which have forced a number of players to close.

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The U.S. economy is built on trucks.

As a nation we have relatively limited train assets, and while in recent years planes have played an expanded role in moving goods, trucks still represent the backbone of how everything — food, gasoline, commodities, and pretty much anything else — moves around the country.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

"Trucks moved 61.1% of the tonnage and 64.9% of the value of these shipments. The average shipment by truck was 63 miles compared to an average of 640 miles by rail," according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics 2023 numbers.

But running a trucking company has been tricky because the largest players have economies of scale that smaller operators don't. That puts any trucking company that's not a massive player very sensitive to increases in gas prices or drops in freight rates.

And that in turn has led a number of trucking companies, including Yellow Freight, the third-largest less-than-truckload operator; J.J. & Sons Logistics, Meadow Lark, and Boateng Logistics, to close while freight brokerage Convoy shut down in October.

Aside from Convoy, none of these brands are household names. but with the demand for trucking increasing, every company that goes out of business puts more pressure on those that remain, which contributes to increased prices.

Demand for trucking has continued to increase.

Image source: Shutterstock

Another freight company closes and plans to liquidate

Not every bankruptcy filing explains why a company has gone out of business. In the trucking industry, multiple recent Chapter 7 bankruptcies have been tied to lawsuits that pushed otherwise successful companies into insolvency.

In the case of TBL Logistics, a Virginia-based national freight company, its Feb. 29 bankruptcy filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Virginia appears to be death by too much debt.

"In its filing, TBL Logistics listed its assets and liabilities as between $1 million and $10 million. The company stated that it has up to 49 creditors and maintains that no funds will be available for unsecured creditors once it pays administrative fees," Freightwaves reported.

The company's owners, Christopher and Melinda Bradner, did not respond to the website's request for comment.

Before it closed, TBL Logistics specialized in refrigerated and oversized loads. The company described its business on its website.

"TBL Logistics is a non-asset-based third-party logistics freight broker company providing reliable and efficient transportation solutions, management, and storage for businesses of all sizes. With our extensive network of carriers and industry expertise, we streamline the shipping process, ensuring your goods reach their destination safely and on time."

The world has a truck-driver shortage

The covid pandemic forced companies to consider their supply chain in ways they never had to before. Increased demand showed the weakness in the trucking industry and drew attention to how difficult life for truck drivers can be.

That was an issue HBO's John Oliver highlighted on his "Last Week Tonight" show in October 2022. In the episode, the host suggested that the U.S. would basically start to starve if the trucking industry shut down for three days.

"Sorry, three days, every produce department in America would go from a fully stocked market to an all-you-can-eat raccoon buffet," he said. "So it’s no wonder trucking’s a huge industry, with more than 3.5 million people in America working as drivers, from port truckers who bring goods off ships to railyards and warehouses, to long-haul truckers who move them across the country, to 'last-mile' drivers, who take care of local delivery." 

The show highlighted how many truck drivers face low pay, difficult working conditions and, in many cases, crushing debt.

"Hundreds of thousands of people become truck drivers every year. But hundreds of thousands also quit. Job turnover for truckers averages over 100%, and at some companies it’s as high as 300%, meaning they’re hiring three people for a single job over the course of a year. And when a field this important has a level of job satisfaction that low, it sure seems like there’s a huge problem," Oliver shared.

The truck-driver shortage is not just a U.S. problem; it's a global issue, according to IRU.org.

"IRU’s 2023 driver shortage report has found that over three million truck driver jobs are unfilled, or 7% of total positions, in 36 countries studied," the global transportation trade association reported. 

"With the huge gap between young and old drivers growing, it will get much worse over the next five years without significant action."

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Wendy’s has a new deal for daylight savings time haters

The Daylight Savings Time promotion slashes prices on breakfast.

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Daylight Savings Time, or the practice of advancing clocks an hour in the spring to maximize natural daylight, is a controversial practice because of the way it leaves many feeling off-sync and tired on the second Sunday in March when the change is made and one has one less hour to sleep in.

Despite annual "Abolish Daylight Savings Time" think pieces and online arguments that crop up with unwavering regularity, Daylight Savings in North America begins on March 10 this year.

Related: Coca-Cola has a new soda for Diet Coke fans

Tapping into some people's very vocal dislike of Daylight Savings Time, fast-food chain Wendy's  (WEN)  is launching a daylight savings promotion that is jokingly designed to make losing an hour of sleep less painful and encourage fans to order breakfast anyway.

Wendy's has recently made a big push to expand its breakfast menu.

Image source: Wendy's.

Promotion wants you to compensate for lost sleep with cheaper breakfast

As it is also meant to drive traffic to the Wendy's app, the promotion allows anyone who makes a purchase of $3 or more through the platform to get a free hot coffee, cold coffee or Frosty Cream Cold Brew.

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Available during the Wendy's breakfast hours of 6 a.m. and 10:30 a.m. (which, naturally, will feel even earlier due to Daylight Savings), the deal also allows customers to buy any of its breakfast sandwiches for $3. Items like the Sausage, Egg and Cheese Biscuit, Breakfast Baconator and Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant normally range in price between $4.50 and $7.

The choice of the latter is quite wide since, in the years following the pandemic, Wendy's has made a concerted effort to expand its breakfast menu with a range of new sandwiches with egg in them and sweet items such as the French Toast Sticks. The goal was both to stand out from competitors with a wider breakfast menu and increase traffic to its stores during early-morning hours.

Wendy's deal comes after controversy over 'dynamic pricing'

But last month, the chain known for the square shape of its burger patties ignited controversy after saying that it wanted to introduce "dynamic pricing" in which the cost of many of the items on its menu will vary depending on the time of day. In an earnings call, chief executive Kirk Tanner said that electronic billboards would allow restaurants to display various deals and promotions during slower times in the early morning and late at night.

Outcry was swift and Wendy's ended up walking back its plans with words that they were "misconstrued" as an intent to surge prices during its most popular periods.

While the company issued a statement saying that any changes were meant as "discounts and value offers" during quiet periods rather than raised prices during busy ones, the reputational damage was already done since many saw the clarification as another way to obfuscate its pricing model.

"We said these menuboards would give us more flexibility to change the display of featured items," Wendy's said in its statement. "This was misconstrued in some media reports as an intent to raise prices when demand is highest at our restaurants."

The Daylight Savings Time promotion, in turn, is also a way to demonstrate the kinds of deals Wendy's wants to promote in its stores without putting up full-sized advertising or posters for what is only relevant for a few days.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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International

United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

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United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

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"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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