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Largest difficulty drop since July 2021 — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin is getting a dose of reality this week as the World Economic Forum convenes and analysts still favor a fresh BTC price drop.
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Bitcoin is getting a dose of reality this week as the World Economic Forum convenes and analysts still favor a fresh BTC price drop.

Bitcoin (BTC) is off to a better start than most this week as bulls avoid serious losses into the weekly close.

Still heavily tied to declining stock markets, the largest cryptocurrency is nonetheless defending $30,000 on May 23 and eyeing the top of its post-LUNA trading range.

While there are no signs of an impending miracle price recovery, some are hoping that upside will feature before any form of reversion to a downtrend.

Macro conditions remain tenuous — and the week of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Annual Meeting is due to add fuel to the fire surrounding tolerance of Bitcoin.

Add to that the largest downward difficulty adjustment since last July and it becomes clearer that Bitcoin is battling for strength on multiple fronts.

What could happen in the coming days? Cointelegraph presents several factors to keep in mind when it comes to BTC price action.

BTC price "nuke" still on the table

In a refreshing contrast to recent weeks, Bitcoin managed to show strength following the weekly close into May 23.

Despite still sealing a record eighth weekly red candle in a row, the lack of breakdown allowed BTC/USD to instead retain $30,000.

For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, the trend was already in evidence ove the weekend.

Given the overall picture with stocks correlation and monetary tightening forcing them down, not everyone was confident in upside continuation on Bitcoin.

“My preferred Bitcoin scenario is a nuke straight to $22k before big bounce close to $40k,” popular Twitter trader Nebraskan Gooner told followers on the day.

“This would provide the best opportunity for bear market bounce and catch a lot of people off guard. Good to monitor all scenarios especially with everyone being so confident of a bounce.”

That perspective chimes with existing demands for Bitcoin to beat its previous bottom of $23,800 set on the back of the Terra LUNA meltdown.

Late last week, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader and long-time market commentator, said that it was time to accept that the largest cryptocurrency was in a bear market.

“Should we lose the current support at $28,670 then the final support before new lows sits at $26,512,” he added at the time, identifying support and resistance levels which have yet to see a retest.

“To the upside, should price break through the daily resistance then the lower boundary of the Log Growth channel is at $34,270.”

In the meantime, regardless of the strength of $30,000 this week, there should be relief before any potential series reversal, popular Twitter account IncomeSharks argued.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD circled $30,500, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.

Showdown as WEF plans to “change” Bitcoin

The first in-person Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic is the macro trigger of the week.

As the economic elite gathers in Davos, Switzerland, from May 22 through May 26, markets are gearing up for potential volatility on the back of their forthcoming remarks.

Related: WEF 2022, May 23: Latest updates from the Cointelegraph Davos team

For Bitcoiners, the event tends to be a stressful one as the industry attempts to gauge sentiment among traditional finance heavyweights.

This year is likely no different — just one month ago, the WEF released a video arguing that Bitcoin should change its Proof-of-Work algorithm to Proof-of-Stake for environmental purposes.

An accompanying campaign, “Change the Code,” from Ripple co-founder and Executive Chairman Chris Larsen and Greenpeace USA, is attempting to gain mainstream support for the swap.

The implosion of stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) this month further dragged crypto into the crosshairs of the financial establishment. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, claimed that all cryptocurrencies are “worth nothing” and therefore — perhaps paradoxically — require regulation.

“It is based on nothing, there is no underlying assets to act as an anchor of safety,” she told Dutch television show College Tour in an interview released May 22.

Both the WEF and Lagarde have come under fire from Bitcoin sources, with even firms such as Swiss native Bitcoin Suisse showing little public tolerance for their criticism.

Just like El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s Bitcoin-focused summit attended by 44 countries last week, meanwhile, this week’s Davos event will see a conspicuous competitor champion Bitcoin over fiat currency.

The Oslo Freedom Forum, to be held from May 23 through May 25 in Oslo, Norway, describes itself as “a global gathering of activists united in standing up to tyranny.”

Speaking at the event are a host of Bitcoin’s best-known names, including economist Lyn Alden, Strike CEO, Jack Mallers and Elizabeth Stark, co-founder and CEO of Lightning Labs.

“Two international forums starting tomorrow are on the surface similar, but diametrically opposed. The World Economic Forum and the Oslo Freedom Forum. A necessity of manipulated money is coercion, and the loss of individual rights and freedoms. See you in Oslo,” entrepreneur Jeff Booth, also due to attend, tweeted over the weekend.

Difficulty reflects conditions catching up with miners

Major Bitcoin price drawdowns are not without their consequences.

According to the latest estimates, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are now due to adjust for the trip to $30,000.

Difficulty, which reflects changing dynamics among miners, will reduce by around 3.3% at its next automated readjustment this week. While modest compared to some adjustments, the change will nonetheless be the largest downward shift since July 2021.

The reason is simple — Bitcoin price action has not only headed south, but is challenging miners’ profitability.

Miner production cost is key in determining their ongoing activity, and a decline below the number, currently at around $26,000, would cause larger shifts in network fundamentals in order to maintain profitable participation.

According to monitoring resource MacroMicro, as of May 21, it cost an average of $26,250 to mine one bitcoin.

Despite possible profitability pressure based on estimated data, miners are not showing signs of capitulation, still keeping BTC sales to a minimum, according to the latest figures from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode.

Miner outflows — coins leaving miner wallets — hit a one-month low on May 23.

Bitcoin’s mining hash rate, meanwhile, has come off its all-time highs to circle an estimated 233 exahashes per second (EH/s) as of May 23.

For Ki Young Ju, CEO of fellow analytics platform CryptoQuant, the overall trend remains similarly clear.

“While BTC price drops -56% since Nov 2021, hashrate increased +75%,” he noted.

“The market is cold, but the fundamentals are full of heat from mining rigs.”
Bitcoin miner outlow volume 7-day moving average chart. Source: Glassnode/ Twitter

On-chain volume hits multi-month lows

Bitcoin has been famously boring for the mainstream consumer base throughout 2022 thanks to price action, but now, even participation from existing investors is waning.

On-chain data shows that volumes have been in steady decline, with the notable exception of the post-LUNA panic.

Glassnode, which tracks seven-day moving average on-chain transaction volumes, recorded nine-month lows on May 23.

From May 9 onwards, the moving average began falling precipitously, and by May 22 had fallen 70%.

While CryptoQuant’s Ki underscored the lack of interest among retail buyers, fellow analyst Willy Woo argued that it was the big players that really held sway over market fluctuations.

“Very little of the volume and therefore impact on price comes from retail needing to buy groceries,” he wrote as part of a response during a Twitter debate last week.

“5% of the supply is owned by people who hold less than $30k of BTC, the bulk of volume is larger investors who sell to hedge market risk.”
Bitcoin total transfer volume 7-day moving average chart. Source: Glassnode

Market sentiment back at rock bottom

In contrast to some modest price strength, Bitcoin is anything but bullish if looked at from the point of view of sentiment.

Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, BNB, XMR, ETC, MANA

According to classic sentiment gauge, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the majority of the market is bracing for fresh downside.

At 10/100, the Index is back in the lower segment of its “extreme fear” zone which has historically appeared at price bottoms.

Fear & Greed is no stranger to bottom signals this year, having managed to drop to just 8/100 — the lowest since March 2020 — earlier this month.

Analyzing sentiment regarding the highly-correlated S&P 500, trader, entrepreneur and investor Bob Loukas shed some light on what could be a copycat pattern for Bitcoin.

Last week, meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that a more substantial price change would be necessary to change sentiment in a way that matters.

“It's easy to become bullish on BTC on a green day & bearish on a red day. But BTC is still just ranging between $28K-$32K,” he tweeted.

“This will continue until either of these levels is broken. Intra-range moves aren't substantial enough to dictate changes in sentiment.”
Crypto Fear & Greed Index vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: LookIntoBitcoin

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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March 9, 2024

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Spread & Containment

Another beloved brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The beer industry has been devastated by covid, changing tastes, and maybe fallout from the Bud Light scandal.

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March 9, 2024

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Before the covid pandemic, craft beer was having a moment. Most cities had multiple breweries and taprooms with some having so many that people put together the brewery version of a pub crawl.

It was a period where beer snobbery ruled the day and it was not uncommon to hear bar patrons discuss the makeup of the beer the beer they were drinking. This boom period always seemed destined for failure, or at least a retraction as many markets seemed to have more craft breweries than they could support.

Related: Fast-food chain closes more stores after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The pandemic, however, hastened that downfall. Many of these local and regional craft breweries counted on in-person sales to drive their business. 

And while many had local and regional distribution, selling through a third party comes with much lower margins. Direct sales drove their business and the pandemic forced many breweries to shut down their taprooms during the period where social distancing rules were in effect.

During those months the breweries still had rent and employees to pay while little money was coming in. That led to a number of popular beermakers including San Francisco's nationally-known Anchor Brewing as well as many regional favorites including Chicago’s Metropolitan Brewing, New Jersey’s Flying Fish, Denver’s Joyride Brewing, Tampa’s Zydeco Brew Werks, and Cleveland’s Terrestrial Brewing filing bankruptcy.

Some of these brands hope to survive, but others, including Anchor Brewing, fell into Chapter 7 liquidation. Now, another domino has fallen as a popular regional brewery has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Overall beer sales have fallen.

Image source: Shutterstock

Covid is not the only reason for brewery bankruptcies

While covid deserves some of the blame for brewery failures, it's not the only reason why so many have filed for bankruptcy protection. Overall beer sales have fallen driven by younger people embracing non-alcoholic cocktails, and the rise in popularity of non-beer alcoholic offerings,

Beer sales have fallen to their lowest levels since 1999 and some industry analysts

"Sales declined by more than 5% in the first nine months of the year, dragged down not only by the backlash and boycotts against Anheuser-Busch-owned Bud Light but the changing habits of younger drinkers," according to data from Beer Marketer’s Insights published by the New York Post.

Bud Light parent Anheuser Busch InBev (BUD) faced massive boycotts after it partnered with transgender social media influencer Dylan Mulvaney. It was a very small partnership but it led to a right-wing backlash spurred on by Kid Rock, who posted a video on social media where he chastised the company before shooting up cases of Bud Light with an automatic weapon.

Another brewery files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Gizmo Brew Works, which does business under the name Roth Brewing Company LLC, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on March 8. In its filing, the company checked the box that indicates that its debts are less than $7.5 million and it chooses to proceed under Subchapter V of Chapter 11. 

"Both small business and subchapter V cases are treated differently than a traditional chapter 11 case primarily due to accelerated deadlines and the speed with which the plan is confirmed," USCourts.gov explained. 

Roth Brewing/Gizmo Brew Works shared that it has 50-99 creditors and assets $100,000 and $500,000. The filing noted that the company does expect to have funds available for unsecured creditors. 

The popular brewery operates three taprooms and sells its beer to go at those locations.

"Join us at Gizmo Brew Works Craft Brewery and Taprooms located in Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Find us for entertainment, live music, food trucks, beer specials, and most importantly, great-tasting craft beer by Gizmo Brew Works," the company shared on its website.

The company estimates that it has between $1 and $10 million in liabilities (a broad range as the bankruptcy form does not provide a space to be more specific).

Gizmo Brew Works/Roth Brewing did not share a reorganization or funding plan in its bankruptcy filing. An email request for comment sent through the company's contact page was not immediately returned.

 

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