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Hutchins Roundup: Technology adoption, online education, and more

What’s the latest thinking in fiscal and monetary policy? The Hutchins Roundup keeps you informed of the latest research, charts, and speeches. Want…

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By Elijah Asdourian, Alexander Conner, Nasiha Salwati, Louise Sheiner

What’s the latest thinking in fiscal and monetary policy? The Hutchins Roundup keeps you informed of the latest research, charts, and speeches. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday.

Larger firms more likely to adopt advanced technologies

Using novel data on 300,000 firms from the Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey over the 2016-2018 period, Daron Acemoglu of MIT and co-authors find that firms that adopt advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and specialized software, tend to be larger and employ more workers compared to others in their industry. As a result, while only 2%-40% of U.S. firms adopt advanced technologies, they expose 12%-64% of U.S. employees to such technologies. The authors estimate that the use of advanced technologies is associated with 11.4% higher labor productivity and can explain 16%-30% of the labor productivity differences across small and large firms in a given industry. Smaller and older firms are less likely to adopt advanced technologies, likely reflecting the large fixed costs and organizational barriers associated with adoption.  The authors also find that advanced technologies increase the demand for skilled workers but have limited impacts on overall employment.

Online education yields mixed results

Lisa Barrow, Wesley Morris, and Lauren Sartain of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank find that the expansion of online courses in the University of North Carolina system had mixed effects on student outcomes. Virtual learning gave flexibility to students whose budgets, work schedules, and childcare responsibilities prevented them from attending in-person, and was used most by students who were first-generation, Pell grant recipients, older, and female. Despite this additional flexibility, students who took a higher proportion of their classes online had lower graduation rates and took fewer credit hours than their in-person counterparts. Additionally, students in online courses received both more As and more Fs than students attending in-person. The authors point to high demand for online education as evidence that it is “here to stay,” but caution that additional advising and support for non-traditional college students may be needed to make online learning a viable educational alternative.

Survey provides insights into business investment

Using a new survey measure of managers’ expectations, Nicholas Bloom from Stanford University and co-authors find that a two standard deviation increase in uncertainty about future sales is associated with a 6% decline in investment. Uncertainty is also negatively correlated with employment growth and sales. The authors show that increased uncertainty is associated with higher use of rented capital and suggest that this practice allows firms to fulfill shipments while hedging against low demand. Finally, the team compared their results to aggregate uncertainty measures in past literature, concluding that, “industry level stock-volatility can provide a good proxy for the uncertainty in both public and private firms.”

CHART OF THE WEEK: Personal saving rate has dipped well below pre-pandemic trend

Chart courtesy of Aditya Aladangady, David Cho, Laura Feiveson, and Eugenio Pinto of the Federal Reserve; data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis

Quote of the week:

“Japan’s economy is still on its way to recovery from the pandemic and the output gap has remained in negative territory. The Bank [of Japan] projects that the output gap will turn positive at some point in the second half of this fiscal year with  a recovery in the economy. The inflation rate, however, has not risen from the demand side at present. Although it is currently above 2 percent due to the pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the rise in import prices, the rate is projected to decline to below 2 percent from fiscal 2023 with the effects of this pass-through waning, as I mentioned earlier,” says Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan.

“Also… there have been extremely high uncertainties for economic and price developments at home and abroad and for financial market developments. The Bank [of Japan] will closely examine the outlook for economic activity and prices, as well as the upside and downside risks to the outlook. Based on the assessments, it will conduct appropriate monetary policy. At present, the Bank deems that it should continue with monetary easing and thereby firmly support economic activity. By doing so, it aims to provide a favorable environment for firms to raise wages and to achieve the price stability target in a sustainable and stable manner, accompanied by wage increases.”


The Brookings Institution is financed through the support of a diverse array of foundations, corporations, governments, individuals, as well as an endowment. A list of donors can be found in our annual reports published online here. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation.

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Tesla rival Polestar reveals production plans for electric SUV

The Sweden-based electric vehicle maker completes key testing before launching production of its new SUV.

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Tesla's Model Y crossover, the best-selling vehicle globally, is the standard that electric vehicle makers strive to compete with. The Austin, Texas, automaker sold about 267,200 Model Y vehicles in the first three months of the year and continued leading the pack well into the second quarter.

It's no wonder that the Model Y is leading all vehicles in sales as it retails for about $39,390 after tax credits and estimated gas savings. Ford  (F) - Get Free Report hopes to compete with the Model Y about a year from now when it rolls out the new Ford Explorer SUV that is expected to start at $49,150.

Related: Honda unveils surprising electric vehicles to compete with Tesla

Plenty of competition in electric SUV space

Mercedes-Benz (MBG) however, has a Tesla rival model with its EQB all-electric compact sports utility vehicle with an estimated 245 mile range on a charge with 70.5 kWh battery capacity, 0-60 mph acceleration in 8 seconds and the lowest price of its EVs at a $52,750 manufacturers suggested retail price.

Tesla's Model X SUV has a starting price of about $88,490, while the Model X full-size SUV starts at $98,490 with a range of 348 miles. BMW's  (BMWYY) - Get Free Report xDrive50 SUV has a starting price of about $87,000, a range up to 311 miles and accelerates 0-60 miles per hour in 4.4 seconds.

Polestar  (PSNY) - Get Free Report plans to have a lineup of five EVs by 2026. The latest model that will begin production in the first quarter of 2024 is the Polestar 3 electric SUV, which is completing its development. The vehicle just finished two weeks of testing in extreme hot weather of up to 122 degrees in the desert of the United Arab Emirates to fine tune its climate system. The testing was completed in urban cities and the deserts around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“The Polestar 3 development and testing program is progressing well, and I expect production to start in Q1 2024. Polestar 3 is at the start of its journey and customers can now visit our retail locations around the world to see its great proportions and sit in its exclusive and innovative interior,” Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath said in a statement.

Polestar 3 prototype is set for production in the first quarter of 2024.

Polestar

Polestar plans 4 new electric vehicles

Polestar 3, which will compete with Tesla's Model X, Model Y, BMW's iX xDrive50 and Mercedes-Benz, has a starting manufacturer's suggested retail price of $83,000, a range up to 300 miles and a charging time of 30 minutes. The company has further plans for the Polestar 4, an SUV coupé that will launch in phases in late 2023 and 2024, as well as a Polestar 5 electric four-door GT and a Polestar 6 electric roadster that the company says "are coming soon." 

The Swedish automaker's lone all-electric model on the market today is the Polestar 2 fastback, which has a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $49,900, a range up to 320 miles and a charging time of 28 minutes. The vehicle accelerates from 0-60 miles per hour in 4.1 seconds. Polestar 2 was unveiled in 2019 and delivered in Europe in July 2020 and the U.S. in December 2020.

Polestar 1, the company's first vehicle, was a plug-in hybrid that went into production in 2019 and was discontinued in late 2021, according to the Polestar website.

The Gothenburg, Sweden, company was established in 1996 and was sold to Geely affiliate Volvo in 2015.

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Polestar plans production date for its Tesla rival electric SUV

The Sweden-based electric vehicle maker completes key testing before launching production of its new SUV.

Published

on

Tesla's Model Y crossover, the best-selling vehicle globally, is the standard that electric vehicle makers strive to compete with. The Austin, Texas, automaker sold about 267,200 Model Y vehicles in the first three months of the year and continued leading the pack well into the second quarter.

It's no wonder that the Model Y is leading all vehicles in sales as it retails for about $39,390 after tax credits and estimated gas savings. Ford  (F) - Get Free Report hopes to compete with the Model Y about a year from now when it rolls out the new Ford Explorer SUV that is expected to start at $49,150.

Related: Honda unveils surprising electric vehicles to compete with Tesla

Plenty of competition in electric SUV space

Mercedes-Benz (MBG) however, has a Tesla rival model with its EQB all-electric compact sports utility vehicle with an estimated 245 mile range on a charge with 70.5 kWh battery capacity, 0-60 mph acceleration in 8 seconds and the lowest price of its EVs at a $52,750 manufacturers suggested retail price.

Tesla's Model X SUV has a starting price of about $88,490, while the Model X full-size SUV starts at $98,490 with a range of 348 miles. BMW's  (BMWYY) - Get Free Report xDrive50 SUV has a starting price of about $87,000, a range up to 311 miles and accelerates 0-60 miles per hour in 4.4 seconds.

Polestar  (PSNY) - Get Free Report plans to have a lineup of five EVs by 2026. The latest model that will begin production in the first quarter of 2024 is the Polestar 3 electric SUV, which is completing its development. The vehicle just finished two weeks of testing in extreme hot weather of up to 122 degrees in the desert of the United Arab Emirates to fine tune its climate system. The testing was completed in urban cities and the deserts around Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

“The Polestar 3 development and testing program is progressing well, and I expect production to start in Q1 2024. Polestar 3 is at the start of its journey and customers can now visit our retail locations around the world to see its great proportions and sit in its exclusive and innovative interior,” Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath said in a statement.

Polestar 3 prototype is set for production in the first quarter of 2024.

Polestar

Polestar plans 4 new electric vehicles

Polestar 3, which will compete with Tesla's Model X, Model Y, BMW's iX xDrive50 and Mercedes-Benz, has a starting manufacturer's suggested retail price of $83,000, a range up to 300 miles and a charging time of 30 minutes. The company has further plans for the Polestar 4, an SUV coupé that will launch in phases in late 2023 and 2024, as well as a Polestar 5 electric four-door GT and a Polestar 6 electric roadster that the company says "are coming soon." 

The Swedish automaker's lone all-electric model on the market today is the Polestar 2 fastback, which has a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $49,900, a range up to 320 miles and a charging time of 28 minutes. The vehicle accelerates from 0-60 miles per hour in 4.1 seconds. Polestar 2 was unveiled in 2019 and delivered in Europe in July 2020 and the U.S. in December 2020.

Polestar 1, the company's first vehicle, was a plug-in hybrid that went into production in 2019 and was discontinued in late 2021, according to the Polestar website.

The Gothenburg, Sweden, company was established in 1996 and was sold to Geely affiliate Volvo in 2015.

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Why are killer whales harassing and killing porpoises without eating them?

For decades, fish-eating killer whales in the Pacific Northwest have been observed harassing and even killing porpoises without consuming them—a perplexing…

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For decades, fish-eating killer whales in the Pacific Northwest have been observed harassing and even killing porpoises without consuming them—a perplexing behavior that has long intrigued scientists.

Credit: Wild Orca

For decades, fish-eating killer whales in the Pacific Northwest have been observed harassing and even killing porpoises without consuming them—a perplexing behavior that has long intrigued scientists.

A study published today in Marine Mammal Science, co-led by Deborah Giles of Wild Orca and Sarah Teman of the SeaDoc Society, a program of the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, looked at more than 60 years of recorded interactions between Southern Resident killer whales and porpoises in the Salish Sea to better understand why they exhibit this behavior.

Southern Resident killer whales are an endangered population, numbering only 75 individuals. Their survival is intimately tied to the fortunes of Chinook salmon — also an endangered species. Without enough Chinook salmon, these whales are in danger of extinction.

“I am frequently asked, why don’t the Southern Residents just eat seals or porpoises instead?” said Giles. “It’s because fish-eating killer whales have a completely different ecology and culture from orcas that eat marine mammals — even though the two populations live in the same waters. So we must conclude that their interactions with porpoises serve a different purpose, but this purpose has only been speculation until now.”

Three plausible explanations

While scientists have recorded instances of Southern Resident killer whales engaging in porpoise harassment as early as 1962, reasons for this behavior have long remained a mystery. Giles, Teman, and a team of collaborators analyzed 78 documented incidents of porpoise harassment from 1962 to 2020. The study suggests three plausible explanations:

  • Social play: Porpoise harassment may be a form of social play for killer whales. Like many intelligent species, these whales sometimes engage in playful activities to bond, communicate, or simply enjoy themselves. This behavior might benefit group coordination and teamwork.
  • Hunting practice: Another hypothesis suggests that porpoise harassment might hone their salmon-hunting skills. Southern Resident killer whales could view porpoises as moving targets to practice their hunting techniques, even if they do not intend to consume them.
  • Mismothering behavior: This theory suggests that the whales may be attempting to provide care for porpoises they perceive as weaker or ill–a manifestation of their natural inclination to assist others in their group. Females have been witnessed carrying their deceased calves and have been seen similarly carrying porpoises.

“Mismothering behavior — also known as ‘displaced epimeletic behavior’ to scientists— might be due to their limited opportunities to care for young,” Giles explained. “Our research has shown that due to malnutrition, nearly 70% of Southern Resident killer whale pregnancies have resulted in miscarriages or calves that died right away after birth.”

Salmon specialists

Despite these intriguing insights, Giles, Teman, and their collaborators acknowledge that the exact reason behind porpoise harassment may never be fully understood. What is clear, however, is that porpoises are not a part of the Southern Resident killer whale diet. Southern Resident killer whale diets are highly specialized for salmon, making the idea of eating porpoises highly unlikely.

“Killer whales are incredibly complex and intelligent animals. We found that porpoise-harassing behavior has been passed on through generations and across social groupings. It’s an amazing example of killer whale culture,” Teman says. “Still, we don’t expect the Southern Resident killer whales to start eating porpoises. The culture of eating salmon is deeply ingrained in Southern Resident society. These whales need healthy salmon populations to survive.”

This research underscores the importance of conserving salmon populations in the Salish Sea and throughout the whales’ entire range. Maintaining an adequate supply of salmon is vital for the survival and well-being of Southern Resident killer whales and the overall health of the Salish Sea ecosystem.

Affinity for play

This study comes at a time when a separate population of killer whales on the Iberian Peninsula has drawn international headlines for interacting with, and on three occasions, sinking boats off the coast of Portugal and Spain. Ultimately, the Southern Resident killer whales and the Iberian Peninsula orcas are two different populations with distinct cultures. One thing the two might have in common is their affinity for play behavior.

The study was funded by Wild Orca and SeaDoc Society. Additional partners include the University of Exeter, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Orca Behavior Institute, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Cascadia Research, The Whale Museum, Center for Whale Research, Ocean Research College Academy (ORCA) at Everett Community College, Bay Cetology, North Gulf Oceanic Society, George Mason University, and Marine-Med.


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