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Futures Flat As Yields Extend Gains After Brent Crude Hits $97 Overnight

Futures Flat As Yields Extend Gains After Brent Crude Hits $97 Overnight

US equity futures reversed initial gains following Wednesday’s surprise…

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Futures Flat As Yields Extend Gains After Brent Crude Hits $97 Overnight

US equity futures reversed initial gains following Wednesday's surprise reversal that helped US stocks close green, and were trading marginally lower as global bonds resumed their selloff, sending 10Y yields to a new 16-year peak as soaring Brent oil prices hit $97 overnight before reversing as the US Dollar dipped. At 7:45am ET, S&P futures traded down 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures were down -0.3%. As 10-year yields rose 4bps to 4.65% the yield curve flattened and the 2s10s was inverted by less than 50bp for first time since May. 1Y breakeven had its largest move since late July as oil surged on constrained supply. Commodities are mixed with metals and natgas leading with USD lower pre-mkt. Today’s macro focus is on GDP, Consumption, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Kansas Fed, and updates on economic revisions. We also get four Fed speakers, including Powell at 4pm. Financial conditions have tightened since the Fed meeting and mortgage rates are at multi-decade highs. Keep an eye on the 4200 level as we reach expiration on Friday and the JPM collar is rolled.

In premarket trading, Peloton rose 13% after the maker of the trademark exercise bikes agreed to a deal with Lululemon to tap its online workouts and team up on apparel. Micron Technology Inc. tumbled 5% as its mixed outlook for the November quarter weighed on investor sentiment. Analysts see near-term challenges but recovery in the longer term. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Gritstone gained 39% after the biotechnology company said it will receive as much as $433 million from the US government to conduct a trial of its next-generation Covid-19 vaccine.
  • Workday shares fall 9.9% after the software company forecast annual subscription revenue growth of 17% to 19% over the next three years, which analysts say missed expectations.

Hawkish commentary from central banks has dashed hopes for a pivot toward lower rates any time soon, making September the worst month for global stocks in a year and the weakest for global bonds since February. Fund managers at T. Rowe Price are shorting 10- and 30-year Treasuries on a bet yields will keep rising as they catch up with the Federal Reserve’s rapid interest-rate hikes. And indeed, traders are pushing yields higher on speculation that US policymakers will keep policy tight as oil prices approach $100 and spark a new round of inflation. The benchmark 10-year yield rose four basis points to 4.647%.

"Markets are waking up to central banks are going to have to stay higher for longer in this world shaped by supply,” Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. It's not just supply however: with oil soaring, the commodity inflation that many had left for dead, is back with a bang and overnight WTI briefly surpassed $95 for the first time in more than a year after the "tank bottoms" in Cushing stockpiles underscored a widening global deficit.

European stocks are on course for a sixth day of declines with the Stoxx 600 down 0.3% as gains in energy shares boosted by surging oil prices are countered by weakness in rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate. AMS-Osram slumps after the Swiss chipmaker announced a rights issue and 888, the owner of the William Hill gambling chain, falls after cutting its earnings outlook on a spate of bettor-friendly sports results. Here are the biggest European movers:

  • Colruyt shares surge as much as 13% to the highest level in nearly two years on Thursday after the Belgian supermarket operator predicted a sharp increase in profitability. Degroof Petercam hailed the firm’s “major guidance uplift”.
  • Babcock shares rise as much as 11%, the most since July, after the defense outsourcing co. released a trading update that Jefferies sees as “helpful” and de-risking the FY23 outlook.
  • Deliveroo shares climb as much as 10%, the most in 11 months, after the food delivery company said it plans to return up to £250 million to shareholders via a tender offer between 115p-135p per share.
  • Allegro shares gain as much as 9.1% after the company’s CFO warned that robust 3Q guidance from Poland’s biggest e-commerce platform could be a one-off.
  • Europe’s Stoxx 600 energy index is the best-performing subsector in the benchmark on Thursday, as oil was propelled closer to the $100-a-barrel mark after stockpiles at a major US storage hub dropped to critical levels.
  • Bpost shares rise as much as 7.2% after KBC Securities upgrades the Belgian postal company, giving the stock its first buy rating in more than four months, saying visibility is now much improved.
  • Billerud shares gain as much as 4.7% to a more than four-month high after SEB upgrades the Swedish paper and packaging firm to buy on improved risk/reward following significant share price underperformance.
  • AMS-Osram shares tumble as much as 23%, falling to the lowest since 2011, after the Swiss chipmaker announced what Vontobel described as a “significantly larger than feared” rights offering.
  • 888 shares slump as much as 18% after the online betting firm trimmed its full-year Ebitda outlook in an update which Goodbody describes as “disappointing.”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell as continued concerns over China’s property market coupled with fear of inflation stoked by oil’s rally toward $100 inhibited risk taking. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.8%, with Toyota and Tencent among the biggest drags. Hong Kong stocks fell after Evergrande’s shares were suspended from trading, further weakening sentiment on China’s real estate sector ahead of upcoming holidays.  “Suspension of trading in China Evergrande’s shares and its chairman placed under police surveillance further reinforces the odds of liquidation, while a bailout from authorities remains unlikely,” Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG Asia, wrote in a note. Yeap sees low appetite for risk-taking in Asia in light of the latest developments in China’s property market.

  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged amid headwinds in the property sector after the suspension of shares in Evergrande and some of its units, while the mainland was kept afloat after the PBoC’s liquidity injections ahead of the holiday closures and following China’s latest support pledges.
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 underperformed after it slipped beneath the 32,000 level and amid mass ex-dividend day in Japan concerning over 1,400 companies. The Topix dropped amid rising interest rates and as more than 1,000 stocks traded without rights to the next dividend. Markets were closed for holidays in South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia.
  • Australia's ASX 200 pared initial gains as strength in the commodity-related sectors was offset by the upside in yields and weakness in consumer stocks after retail sales missed forecasts.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.3%,ending its longest run of gains in a year. The yen rose for the first day in five as repeated verbal warnings by Japanese authorities over the currency’s weakness spurred intervention speculation. USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 149.28, retreating from Wednesday’s 11-month high of 149.71. EUR/USD up 0.3% to 1.0537; German CPI data in focus later Thursday. GBP/USD snapped six-day decline, climbed 0.5% to 1.22 amid higher gilt yields

In rates, treasuries are once again cheaper by up to 4bp across long-end of the curve as Wednesday’s bear-steepening move is extended into early US session. US 5-, 10- and 30-year yields reached new multiyear highs; 10-year TSY yields are more than 3bp cheaper on the day near 4.65%. The 2s10s curve inverted by less than 50bp for first time since May.  European government bonds are on the back foot as investors fret over the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. Gilts are faring worse than their German counterparts, with bunds falling less amid German state inflation numbers that point to a slowdown in the national reading later on Thursday. UK 10-year yields are up 11bps while the German equivalent adds 7bps. 

The treasury auction cycle concludes with $37b 7-year note; Wednesday’ 5-year note auction stopped 1.2bp through, indicating strong demand. WI 7-year yield at ~4.70% is almost 50bp cheaper than August’s, which stopped 2.1bp through, and higher than all previous 7Y stops since sales of the tenor began in 2009. Dollar IG issuance slate includes a couple of deals with more expected; four companies priced deals on Wednesday, bringing weekly volume to $18.4b vs $15b-$20b projection. US session includes jobless claims, GDP and 7-year note auction. Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to host a town hall event with educators speak at 4pm New York time.

In commodities, WTI crude futures are down slightly after touching a YTD high of $95/bbl during Asian trading hours, the highest level in over a year.

Looking to the day ahead, it’s fairly busy on the data side, with the US September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, August pending home sales and initial jobless claims. In Europe, we have the Eurozone September services, industrial and economic confidence, the German September CPI, the Italian September manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment and consumer confidence, and the August PPI. We will also be hearing from the Fed’s Powell, Cook and Goolsbee, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann. Lastly, we will have company earnings from Nike, Accenture, and Blackberry.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,312.00
  • MXAP down 0.9% to 156.51
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 486.36
  • Nikkei down 1.5% to 31,872.52
  • Topix down 1.4% to 2,345.51
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 17,373.03
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,110.48
  • Sensex down 0.8% to 65,580.52
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,024.76
  • Kospi little changed at 2,465.07
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 445.12
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.89%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0518
  • Brent Futures down 0.1% to $96.43/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,874.88
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.11% to 106.55

Top Overnight News

  • China appointed Lan Fo’an as the Communist Party chief at the Ministry of Finance, a move that will pave the way for him to become finance minister at a time when the government is seeking to bolster the economy. BBG
  • OpenAI is in advanced talks with former Apple designer Sir Jony Ive and SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son to launch a venture to build the “iPhone of artificial intelligence”, fueled by more than $1bn in funding from the Japanese conglomerate. FT
  • France is exploring ways to cap national electricity prices without falling foul of EU subsidy rules, including a possible windfall levy to deliver President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to “take back control” of prices. FT
  • Spain’s CPI for Sept came in at +3.2% Y/Y on the headline, up from +2.4% in Aug but below the Street’s +3.3% forecast (while core was +5.8%, down from +6.1% in Aug and below the Street’s +6% forecast). BBG
  • Saudi Arabia and Russia have raked in billions of dollars in extra oil revenues in recent months, despite pumping fewer barrels, after their production cuts sent crude prices soaring. The cutbacks were a risky strategy, both financially and politically. But they appear to be paying off for the two most important members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies, or the OPEC+ cartel. WSJ
  • WTI briefly hit $95, the highest in more than a year, after a drop in Cushing stockpiles to critical levels highlighted a widening global deficit. The jump heightened inflation concerns and raised expectations rates will stay higher for a protracted period. BBG
  • There are few signs of a late deal to avert US government shutdown — with Kevin McCarthy making big demands of President Biden and bringing little leverage to the clash. McCarthy counts the long-term spending cuts he extracted from Biden last spring as one of his proudest achievements and is now looking for more concessions. BBG
  • The second GOP presidential debate was full of arguments, one-liners and strained attempts for attention, but none of the candidates articulated a clear case why they should be the front-runner instead of Donald Trump. WSJ
  • Trading in the shares of China Evergrande Group   and two of its publicly listed units was suspended on Thursday, after reports that the beleaguered property developer’s founder and chairman had been placed under police surveillance. WSJ
  • All eyes on S&P 500 200dma of 4195. If level is tested and doesn’t provide support history suggests S&P 500 forward 1-/3-/6-/12-month returns are significantly below-average following a break in its 200dma.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the indecisive performance in the US heading into month and quarter-end amid further upside in global yields and higher oil prices. ASX 200 pared initial gains as strength in the commodity-related sectors was offset by the upside in yields and weakness in consumer stocks after retail sales missed forecasts. Nikkei 225 underperformed after it slipped beneath the 32,000 level and amid mass ex-dividend day in Japan concerning over 1,400 companies. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp diverged amid headwinds in the property sector after the suspension of shares in Evergrande and some of its units, while the mainland was kept afloat after the PBoC’s liquidity injections ahead of the holiday closures and following China’s latest support pledges.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1798 vs exp. 7.3239 (prev. 7.1717)
  • HKEX announced shares of Evergrande (3333 HK), Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle (708 HK) have been suspended.
  • China's cyberspace regulator has issued draft rules on promoting draft riles on promoting and regulating the cross-border flow of data; companies providing more than 1mln people's personal information outside the country should safety assessment of data. Where data does not contain personal information or important data, there is no need to declare a security review assessment, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese FX Regulator expects the current account surplus to remain basically stable in H2 and said the cross-border two-way investment is expected to further stabilise and improve. The scale of FX reserves will remain basically stable. Will actively fend off and resolve external shock risks. Will strive to maintain the stability of FX markets and balance of payments.
  • Chinese Finance Ministry will exempt urban land use tax on land used for construction of affordable housing projects. Stamp duty for affordable housing management firms and buyers are exempted. Tax exemptions and cuts effective from October 1st, according to Reuters.

European bourses trade softer following a predominantly negative close yesterday as a lack of positive catalysts keeps sentiment suppressed. Sectors in Europe have a mostly negative tilt with Travel & Leisure at the bottom of the pile after feeling the pressure from higher energy prices. On the upside, Energy and Basic Resources outperform. US futures are trading modestly weaker, paring back gains seen in yesterday's session. The docket for today picks up, with US Core PCE Prices (Final), GDP (Final) and weekly IJC’s all due at the busy 13:30 BST / 08:30 ET slot.

Top European News

  • France is exploring a windfall levy to take back control of energy prices, according to FT.
  • European Commission VP says the exact scope of the probe into Chinese EV imports has not been decided yet, when asked if Tesla (TSLA) will be impacted by the probe, via CNBC.

FX

  • The T-note managed to tread water for the most part within a 107-27/15+ range and perhaps with some leverage from blocked curve flatteners.
  • Bunds and Gilts have been in freefall alongside Eurozone periphery debt. The 10 year German and UK benchmarks breached deeper chart and psychological supports on the way down to 127.60 and 93.43 respectively.
  • Angst in BTPs was prompted by Italy’s budget and exacerbated by month-end supply, but the latest collapse elsewhere looks more momentum-based and technically driven given no obvious fresh fundamental catalyst.
  • Italy sold EUR 8bln vs exp. EUR 7-8bln 4.10% 2029, 4.20% 2034 BTP Auction & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. 1-1.5bln 2026, 2030 CCTeu Auction.

Fixed Income

  • The T-note managed to tread water for the most part within a 107-27/15+ range and perhaps with some leverage from blocked curve flatteners.
  • Bunds and Gilts have been in freefall alongside Eurozone periphery debt. The 10 year German and UK benchmarks breached deeper chart and psychological supports on the way down to 127.60 and 93.43 respectively.
  • Angst in BTPs was prompted by Italy’s budget and exacerbated by month-end supply, but the latest collapse elsewhere looks more momentum-based and technically driven given no obvious fresh fundamental catalyst.
  • Italy sold EUR 8bln vs exp. EUR 7-8bln 4.10% 2029, 4.20% 2034 BTP Auction & EUR 1.5bln vs exp. 1-1.5bln 2026, 2030 CCTeu Auction.

Commodities

  • France is exploring a windfall levy to take back control of energy prices, according to FT.
  • European Commission VP says the exact scope of the probe into Chinese EV imports has not been decided yet, when asked if Tesla (TSLA) will be impacted by the probe, via CNBC.

Geopolitics

  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1798 vs exp. 7.3239 (prev. 7.1717)
  • HKEX announced shares of Evergrande (3333 HK), Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) and Evergrande New Energy Vehicle (708 HK) have been suspended.
  • China's cyberspace regulator has issued draft rules on promoting draft riles on promoting and regulating the cross-border flow of data; companies providing more than 1mln people's personal information outside the country should safety assessment of data. Where data does not contain personal information or important data, there is no need to declare a security review assessment, according to Reuters.
  • Chinese FX Regulator expects the current account surplus to remain basically stable in H2 and said the cross-border two-way investment is expected to further stabilise and improve. The scale of FX reserves will remain basically stable. Will actively fend off and resolve external shock risks. Will strive to maintain the stability of FX markets and balance of payments.
  • Chinese Finance Ministry will exempt urban land use tax on land used for construction of affordable housing projects. Stamp duty for affordable housing management firms and buyers are exempted. Tax exemptions and cuts effective from October 1st, according to Reuters.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 201,000
    • Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.68m, prior 1.66m
  • 08:30: Revisions: GDP/National Economic Accounts
  • 08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.2%, prior 2.1%
    • 2Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
    • 2Q GDP Price Index, est. 2.0%, prior 2.0%
    • 2Q Personal Consumption, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7%
  • 10:00: Aug. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -1.0%, prior 0.9%
  • Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -13.0%, prior -13.8%
  • 11:00: Sept. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -2, prior 0

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The storm that’s been sweeping through New York while I've been here this week has stayed a bit longer in fixed income markets, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+7.2bps) climbing to a new cycle high of 4.61%. In part, that’s been driven by a fresh spike in oil prices, with Brent Crude currently at $97.41/bbl this morning for the first time since November. And as US rates turned higher, so too did the dollar index, which is also at its highest level since November as we go to press. Yet despite the latest sell-off in bond markets, US equities were relatively calm with the S&P 500 (+0.02%) regaining its composure after a mid-session sell-off, even as yields went from below 4.50% to above 4.60% in a few hours. That said, this respite might prove brief, as US futures are pointing lower again this morning, and there’ve been sharp losses for several Asian indices overnight. Meanwhile, there’s still no sign of the US House and Senate being able to agree on a funding extension ahead of a potential US government shutdown at the end of the week. Today we’ve got important US GDP benchmark revisions as well, which happen every 5 years and have the potential to rewrite history one way or the other, whilst informing economists of any change in recent data momentum. See Brett Ryan’s preview in his week ahead here.

Once again, the big story yesterday was that bond sell-off, which sent Bloomberg’s aggregate global bond index down to its lowest level of 2023 so far. But it wasn’t just the 10yr that lost ground, as 3 0yr Treasury yields also moved up +4.4bps to a new cycle high of their own at 4.72%, which is their highest level since 2011. We can see how that’s increasingly being passed through to the real economy as well, since the MBA’s weekly update of 30yr mortgage rates climbed another 10bps to 7.41%. That’s their highest level since December 2000, and one that’s likely to go higher still given the recent move in rates.

Real yields again drove much of the increase, with the 10yr real yield up +4.1bps to a post-GFC high of 2.26%. But we also saw a f resh rise in inflation breakevens, with the 30yr up +1.4bps to a 6-month high of 2.39%, not least as the upward march in oil prices regained steam. That came as Brent crude broke through the $95/bbl level all the way to $96.55/bbl, its highest level since November, after gaining +2.76% on the day, and this morning it’s since gone above $97/bbl. WTI crude saw an even more dramatic increase, up +3.64% in its largest rise since May, to close at a new one-year high of $93.68/bl, with further gains above $94/bbl this morning. The oil price spike occurred as the latest US weekly crude inventory data showed a -4.1% decline in oil stocks at the key hub in Cushing, Oklahoma to its lowest level since last summer.

This sovereign bond sell-off was evident in Europe too, where the 10yr bund yield (+3.5bps) closed at a new post-2011 high of 2.84%, along with the 10yr French OAT (+3.8bps) at 3.40%. Italian BTPs underperformed once again, however, with the spread of 10yr Italian yields over bunds widening to 195bps, its highest closing level since the banking stress in March. That spread widening came ahead of the Italian government unveiling its 2024 budget yesterday evening, which foresees a 4.3% deficit next year as a share of GDP. That’s largely in line with earlier reports and a touch above the level that our economists see as consistent with EU recommendations – see their note earlier this week.

For equities, there was a brief stabilisation yesterday that’s since turned more negative overnight again. For instance, the S&P 500 traded largely flat (+0.02%) while the NASDAQ saw a slight outperformance (+0.22%). The performance was varied across sectors, with energy stocks (+2.51%) seeing the strongest performance amidst to the surge in oil prices. Otherwise, industrials advanced (+0.76%) following stronger capital goods orders data (more on this below). Meanwhile, several of the more defensive sectors underperformed, including utilities (-1.93%) and consumer staples (-0.77%). Also notable is the near 10% decline of the consumer discretionary sector in the past two weeks (-0.38% yesterday), which comes as the latest weekly BEA card spending data saw the 4-week moving average fall to its lowest since early 2021. So a potential area of concern for the soft landing camp. Looking forward, futures on the S&P 500 have posted a modest -0.04% decline this morning.

Overnight in Asia, the major indices have mostly lost ground this morning, with a sharp decline for the Nikkei (-1.96%) and the Hang Seng (-1.04%) overnight. That currently leaves the Hang Seng on course for its lowest close so far of 2023, which comes as trading in Evergrande has been suspended in Hong Kong . Otherwise, there’ve been smaller declines for stocks in mainland China, with the CSI 300 down -0.28%, whilst the Shanghai Comp (+0.13%) has seen a modest increase.

Back in Europe, several data releases added to the downbeat tone yesterday. Among others, Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence index fell once again, from -25.5 to -26.5 (vs -26.0 expected). Similarly, the French INSEE household confidence survey for September fell from 85 to 83 (vs 84 expected). This was mostly driven by fears of unemployment and was the third month in a row that the indicator weakened. Alongside the other macro headwinds, this proved to be a challenging backdrop for European equity markets, with the STOXX 600 down by -0.18% to its lowest level in nearly six months .

Turning to the remaining data yesterday, US durable goods orders came in above expectations at +0.2% (vs -0.5% expected) and core capital goods orders surprised strongly to the upside at 0.9% (vs +0.1% expected). That suggests some upside for US Q3 GDP trackers, though a modest one when accounting for downward revisions for the previous month (-0.5pp for capital goods orders).

Looking to the day ahead, it’s fairly busy on the data side, with the US September Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, August pending home sales and initial jobless claims. In Europe, we have the Eurozone September services, industrial and economic confidence, the German September CPI, the Italian September manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment and consumer confidence, and the August PPI. We will also be hearing from the Fed’s Powell, Cook and Goolsbee, as well as the ECB’s Holzmann. Lastly, we will have company earnings from Nike, Accenture, and Blackberry.

Tyler Durden Thu, 09/28/2023 - 08:20

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Government

Students lose out as cities and states give billions in property tax breaks to businesses − draining school budgets and especially hurting the poorest students

An estimated 95% of US cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors, taking billions away from schools.

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Exxon Mobil Corp.'s campus in East Baton Rouge Parish, left, received millions in tax abatements to the detriment of local schools, right. Barry Lewis/Getty Images, Tjean314/Wikimedia

Built in 1910, James Elementary is a three-story brick school in Kansas City, Missouri’s historic Northeast neighborhood, with a bright blue front door framed by a sand-colored stone arch adorned with a gargoyle. As bustling students and teachers negotiate a maze of gray stairs with worn wooden handrails, Marjorie Mayes, the school’s principal, escorts a visitor across uneven blue tile floors on the ground floor to a classroom with exposed brick walls and pipes. Bubbling paint mars some walls, evidence of the water leaks spreading inside the aging building.

“It’s living history,” said Mayes during a mid-September tour of the building. “Not the kind of living history we want.”

The district would like to tackle the US$400 million in deferred maintenance needed to create a 21st century learning environment at its 35 schools – including James Elementary – but it can’t. It doesn’t have the money.

Property tax redirect

The lack of funds is a direct result of the property tax breaks that Kansas City lavishes on companies and developers that do business there. The program is supposed to bring in new jobs and business but instead has ended up draining civic coffers and starving schools. Between 2017 and 2023, the Kansas City school district lost $237.3 million through tax abatements.

Kansas City is hardly an anomaly. An estimated 95% of U.S. cities provide economic development tax incentives to woo corporate investors. The upshot is that billions have been diverted from large urban school districts and from a growing number of small suburban and rural districts. The impact is seen in districts as diverse as Chicago and Cleveland, Hillsboro, Oregon, and Storey County, Nevada.

The result? A 2021 review of 2,498 financial statements from school districts across 27 states revealed that, in 2019 alone, at least $2.4 billion was diverted to fund tax incentives. Yet that substantial figure still downplays the magnitude of the problem, because three-quarters of the 10,370 districts analyzed did not provide any information on tax abatement agreements.

Tax abatement programs have long been controversial, pitting states and communities against one another in beggar-thy-neighbor contests. Their economic value is also, at best, unclear: Studies show most companies would have made the same location decision without taxpayer subsidies. Meanwhile, schools make up the largest cost item in these communities, meaning they suffer most when companies are granted breaks in property taxes.

A three-month investigation by The Conversation and three scholars with expertise in economic development, tax laws and education policy shows that the cash drain from these programs is not equally shared by schools in the same communities. At the local level, tax abatements and exemptions often come at the cost of critical funding for school districts that disproportionately serve students from low-income households and who are racial minorities.

In Missouri, for example, in 2022 nearly $1,700 per student was redirected from Kansas City public and charter schools, while between $500 and $900 was redirected from wealthier, whiter Northland schools on the north side of the river in Kansas City and in the suburbs beyond. Other studies have found similar demographic trends elsewhere, including New York state, South Carolina and Columbus, Ohio.

The funding gaps produced by abated money often force schools to delay needed maintenance, increase class sizes, lay off teachers and support staff and even close outright. Schools also struggle to update or replace outdated technology, books and other educational resources. And, amid a nationwide teacher shortage, schools under financial pressures sometimes turn to inexperienced teachers who are not fully certified or rely too heavily on recruits from overseas who have been given special visa status.

Lost funding also prevents teachers and staff, who often feed, clothe and otherwise go above and beyond to help students in need, from earning a living wage. All told, tax abatements can end up harming a community’s value, with constant funding shortfalls creating a cycle of decline.

Incentives, payoffs and guarantees

Perversely, some of the largest beneficiaries of tax abatements are the politicians who publicly boast of handing out the breaks despite the harm to poorer communities. Incumbent governors have used the incentives as a means of taking credit for job creation, even when the jobs were coming anyway.

“We know that subsidies don’t work,” said Elizabeth Marcello, a doctoral lecturer at Hunter College who studies governmental planning and policy and the interactions between state and local governments. “But they are good political stories, and I think that’s why politicians love them so much.”

Academic research shows that economic development incentives are ineffective most of the time – and harm school systems.

While some voters may celebrate abatements, parents can recognize the disparities between school districts that are created by the tax breaks. Fairleigh Jackson pointed out that her daughter’s East Baton Rouge third grade class lacks access to playground equipment.

The class is attending school in a temporary building while their elementary school undergoes a two-year renovation.

The temporary site has some grass and a cement slab where kids can play, but no playground equipment, Jackson said. And parents needed to set up an Amazon wish list to purchase basic equipment such as balls, jump ropes and chalk for students to use. The district told parents there would be no playground equipment due to a lack of funds, then promised to install equipment, Jackson said, but months later, there is none.

Cement surface surrounded by a fence with grass beyond. There's no playground equipment..
The temporary site where Fairleigh Jackson’s daughter goes to school in East Baton Rouge Parish lacks playground equipment. Fairleigh Jackson, CC BY-ND

Jackson said it’s hard to complain when other schools in the district don’t even have needed security measures in place. “When I think about playground equipment, I think that’s a necessary piece of child development,” Jackson said. “Do we even advocate for something that should be a daily part of our kids’ experience when kids’ safety isn’t being funded?”

Meanwhile, the challenges facing administrators 500-odd miles away at Atlanta Public Schools are nothing if not formidable: The district is dealing with chronic absenteeism among half of its Black students, many students are experiencing homelessness, and it’s facing a teacher shortage.

At the same time, Atlanta is showering corporations with tax breaks. The city has two bodies that dole them out: the Development Authority of Fulton County, or DAFC, and Invest Atlanta, the city’s economic development agency. The deals handed out by the two agencies have drained $103.8 million from schools from fiscal 2017 to 2022, according to Atlanta school system financial statements.

What exactly Atlanta and other cities and states are accomplishing with tax abatement programs is hard to discern. Fewer than a quarter of companies that receive breaks in the U.S. needed an incentive to invest, according to a 2018 study by the Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a nonprofit research organization.

This means that at least 75% of companies received tax abatements when they’re not needed – with communities paying a heavy price for economic development that sometimes provides little benefit.

In Kansas City, for example, there’s no guarantee that the businesses that do set up shop after receiving a tax abatement will remain there long term. That’s significant considering the historic border war between the Missouri and Kansas sides of Kansas City – a competition to be the most generous to the businesses, said Jason Roberts, president of the Kansas City Federation of Teachers and School-Related Personnel. Kansas City, Missouri, has a 1% income tax on people who work in the city, so it competes for as many workers as possible to secure that earnings tax, Roberts said.

Under city and state tax abatement programs, companies that used to be in Kansas City have since relocated. The AMC Theaters headquarters, for example, moved from the city’s downtown to Leawood, Kansas, about a decade ago, garnering some $40 million in Promoting Employment Across Kansas tax incentives.

Roberts said that when one side’s financial largesse runs out, companies often move across the state line – until both states decided in 2019 that enough was enough and declared a cease-fire.

But tax breaks for other businesses continue. “Our mission is to grow the economy of Kansas City, and application of tools such as tax exemptions are vital to achieving that mission, said Jon Stephens, president and CEO of Port KC, the Kansas City Port Authority. The incentives speed development, and providing them "has resulted in growth choosing KC versus other markets,” he added.

In Atlanta, those tax breaks are not going to projects in neighborhoods that need help attracting development. They have largely been handed out to projects that are in high demand areas of the city, said Julian Bene, who served on Invest Atlanta’s board from 2010 to 2018. In 2019, for instance, the Fulton County development authority approved a 10-year, $16 million tax abatement for a 410-foot-tall, 27,000-square-foot tower in Atlanta’s vibrant Midtown business district. The project included hotel space, retail space and office space that is now occupied by Google and Invesco.

In 2021, a developer in Atlanta pulled its request for an $8 million tax break to expand its new massive, mixed-use Ponce City Market development in the trendy Beltline neighborhood with an office tower and apartment building. Because of community pushback, the developer knew it likely did not have enough votes from the commission for approval, Bene said. After a second try for $5 million in lower taxes was also rejected, the developer went ahead and built the project anyway.

Invest Atlanta has also turned down projects in the past, Bene said. Oftentimes, after getting rejected, the developer goes back to the landowner and asks for a better price to buy the property to make their numbers work, because it was overvalued at the start.

Trouble in Philadelphia

On Thursday, Oct. 26, 2023, an environmental team was preparing Southwark School in Philadelphia for the winter cold. While checking an attic fan, members of the team saw loose dust on top of flooring that contained asbestos. The dust that certainly was blowing into the floors below could contain the cancer-causing agent. Within a day, Southwark was closed – the seventh Philadelphia school temporarily shuttered since the previous academic year because of possible asbestos contamination.

A 2019 inspection of the John L Kinsey school in Philadelphia found asbestos in plaster walls, floor tiles, radiator insulation and electrical panels. Asbestos is a major problem for Philadelphia’s public schools. The district needs $430 million to clean up the asbestos, lead, and other environmental hazards that place the health of students, teachers and staff at risk. And that is on top of an additional $2.4 billion to fix failing and damaged buildings.

Yet the money is not available. Matthew Stem, a former district official, testified in a 2023 lawsuit about financing of Pennsylvania schools that the environmental health risks cannot be addressed until an emergency like at Southwark because “existing funding sources are not sufficient to remediate those types of issues.”

Meanwhile, the city keeps doling out abatements, draining money that could have gone toward making Philadelphia schools safer. In the fiscal year ending June 2022, such tax breaks cost the school district $118 million – more than 25% of the total amount needed to remove the asbestos and other health dangers. These abatements take 31 years to break even, according to the city’s own scenario impact analyses.

Huge subsets of the community – primarily Black, Brown, poor or a combination – are being “drastically impacted” by the exemptions and funding shortfalls for the school district, said Kendra Brooks, a Philadelphia City Council member. Schools and students are affected by mold, asbestos and lead, and crumbling infrastructure, as well as teacher and staffing shortages – including support staff, social workers and psychologists.

More than half the district’s schools that lacked adequate air conditioning – 87 schools – had to go to half days during the first week of the 2023 school year because of extreme heat. Poor heating systems also leave the schools cold in the winter. And some schools are overcrowded, resulting in large class sizes, she said.

Front of a four-story brick school building with tall windows, some with air-conditioners
Horace Furness High School in Philadelphia, where hot summers have temporarily closed schools that lack air conditioning. Nick-philly/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Teachers and researchers agree that a lack of adequate funding undermines educational opportunities and outcomes. That’s especially true for children living in poverty. A 2016 study found that a 10% increase in per-pupil spending each year for all 12 years of public schooling results in nearly one-third of a year of more education, 7.7% higher wages and a 3.2% reduction in annual incidence of adult poverty. The study estimated that a 21.7% increase could eliminate the high school graduation gap faced by children from low-income families.

More money for schools leads to more education resources for students and their teachers. The same researchers found that spending increases were associated with reductions in student-to-teacher ratios, increases in teacher salaries and longer school years. Other studies yielded similar results: School funding matters, especially for children already suffering the harms of poverty.

While tax abatements themselves are generally linked to rising property values, the benefits are not evenly distributed. In fact, any expansion of the tax base due to new property construction tends to be outside of the county granting the tax abatement. For families in school districts with the lost tax revenues, their neighbors’ good fortune likely comes as little solace. Meanwhile, a poorly funded education system is less likely to yield a skilled and competitive workforce, creating longer-term economic costs that make the region less attractive for businesses and residents.

“There’s a head-on collision here between private gain and the future quality of America’s workforce,” said Greg LeRoy, executive director at Good Jobs First, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that’s critical of tax abatement and tracks the use of economic development subsidies.

Three-story school building with police officers out front and traffic lights in the foreground
Roxborough High School in Philadelphia. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

As funding dwindles and educational quality declines, additional families with means often opt for alternative educational avenues such as private schooling, home-schooling or moving to a different school district, further weakening the public school system.

Throughout the U.S., parents with the power to do so demand special arrangements, such as selective schools or high-track enclaves that hire experienced, fully prepared teachers. If demands aren’t met, they leave the district’s public schools for private schools or for the suburbs. Some parents even organize to splinter their more advantaged, and generally whiter, neighborhoods away from the larger urban school districts.

Those parental demands – known among scholars as “opportunity hoarding” – may seem unreasonable from the outside, but scarcity breeds very real fears about educational harms inflicted on one’s own children. Regardless of who’s to blame, the children who bear the heaviest burden of the nation’s concentrated poverty and racialized poverty again lose out.

Rethinking in Philadelphia and Riverhead

Americans also ask public schools to accomplish Herculean tasks that go far beyond the education basics, as many parents discovered at the onset of the pandemic when schools closed and their support for families largely disappeared.

A school serving students who endure housing and food insecurity must dedicate resources toward children’s basic needs and trauma. But districts serving more low-income students spend less per student on average, and almost half the states have regressive funding structures.

Facing dwindling resources for schools, several cities have begun to rethink their tax exemption programs.

The Philadelphia City Council recently passed a scale-back on a 10-year property tax abatement by decreasing the percentage of the subsidy over that time. But even with that change, millions will be lost to tax exemptions that could instead be invested in cash-depleted schools. “We could make major changes in our schools’ infrastructure, curriculum, staffing, staffing ratios, support staff, social workers, school psychologists – take your pick,” Brooks said.

Other cities looking to reform tax abatement programs are taking a different approach. In Riverhead, New York, on Long Island, developers or project owners can be granted exemptions on their property tax and allowed instead to shell out a far smaller “payment in lieu of taxes,” or PILOT. When the abatement ends, most commonly after 10 years, the businesses then will pay full property taxes.

At least, that’s the idea, but the system is far from perfect. Beneficiaries of the PILOT program have failed to pay on time, leaving the school board struggling to fill a budget hole. Also, the payments are not equal to the amount they would receive for property taxes, with millions of dollars in potential revenue over a decade being cut to as little as a few hundred thousand. On the back end, if a business that’s subsidized with tax breaks fails after 10 years, the projected benefits never emerge.

And when the time came to start paying taxes, developers have returned to the city’s Industrial Development Agency with hat in hand, asking for more tax breaks. A local for-profit aquarium, for example, was granted a 10-year PILOT program break by Riverhead in 1999; it has received so many extensions that it is not scheduled to start paying full taxes until 2031 – 22 years after originally planned.

Kansas City border politics

Like many cities, Kansas City has a long history of segregation, white flight and racial redlining, said Kathleen Pointer, senior policy strategist for Kansas City Public Schools.

James Elementary in Kansas City, Mo. Danielle McLean, CC BY-ND

Troost Avenue, where the Kansas City Public Schools administrative office is located, serves as the city’s historic racial dividing line, with wealthier white families living in the west and more economically disadvantaged people of color in the east. Most of the district’s schools are located east of Troost, not west.

Students on the west side “pretty much automatically funnel into the college preparatory middle school and high schools,” said The Federation of Teachers’ Roberts. Those schools are considered signature schools that are selective and are better taken care of than the typical neighborhood schools, he added.

The school district’s tax levy was set by voters in 1969 at 3.75%. But successive attempts over the next few decades to increase the levy at the ballot box failed. During a decadeslong desegregation lawsuit that was eventually resolved through a settlement agreement in the 1990s, a court raised the district’s levy rate to 4.96% without voter approval. The levy has remained at the same 4.96% rate since.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is still distributing 20-year tax abatements to companies and developers for projects. The district calculated that about 92% of the money that was abated within the school district’s boundaries was for projects within the whiter west side of the city, Pointer said.

“Unfortunately, we can’t pick or choose where developers build,” said Meredith Hoenes, director of communications for Port KC. “We aren’t planning and zoning. Developers typically have plans in place when they knock on our door.”

In Kansas City, several agencies administer tax incentives, allowing developers to shop around to different bodies to receive one. Pointer said he believes the Port Authority is popular because they don’t do a third-party financial analysis to prove that the developers need the amount that they say they do.

With 20-year abatements, a child will start pre-K and graduate high school before seeing the benefits of a property being fully on the tax rolls, Pointer said. Developers, meanwhile, routinely threaten to build somewhere else if they don’t get the incentive, she said.

In 2020, BlueScope Construction, a company that had received tax incentives for nearly 20 years and was about to roll off its abatement, asked for another 13 years and threatened to move to another state if it didn’t get it. At the time, the U.S. was grappling with a racial reckoning following the murder of George Floyd, who was killed by a Minneapolis police officer.

“That was a moment for Kansas City Public Schools where we really drew a line in the sand and talked about incentives as an equity issue,” Pointer said.

After the district raised the issue – tying the incentives to systemic racism – the City Council rejected BlueScope’s bid and, three years later, it’s still in Kansas City, fully on the tax rolls, she said. BlueScope did not return multiple requests for comment.

Recently, a multifamily housing project was approved for a 20-year tax abatement by the Port Authority of Kansas City at Country Club Plaza, an outdoor shopping center in an affluent part of the city. The housing project included no affordable units. “This project was approved without any independent financial analysis proving that it needed that subsidy,” Pointer said.

All told, the Kansas City Public Schools district faces several shortfalls beyond the $400 million in deferred maintenance, Superintendent Jennifer Collier said. There are staffing shortages at all positions: teachers, paraprofessionals and support staff. As in much of the U.S., the cost of housing is surging. New developments that are being built do not include affordable housing, or when they do, the units are still out of reach for teachers.

That’s making it harder for a district that already loses about 1 in 5 of its teachers each year to keep or recruit new ones, who earn an average of only $46,150 their first year on the job, Collier said.

East Baton Rouge and the industrial corridor

It’s impossible to miss the tanks, towers, pipes and industrial structures that incongruously line Baton Rouge’s Scenic Highway landscape. They’re part of Exxon Mobil Corp.’s campus, home of the oil giant’s refinery in addition to chemical and plastics plants.

Aerial view of industrial buildings along a river
Exxon Mobil Corp.’s Baton Rouge campus occupies 3.28 square miles. AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

Sitting along the Mississippi River, the campus has been a staple of Louisiana’s capital for over 100 years. It’s where 6,000 employees and contractors who collectively earn over $400 million annually produce 522,000 barrels of crude oil per day when at full capacity, as well as the annual production and manufacture of 3 billion pounds of high-density polyethylene and polypropylene and 6.6 billion pounds of petrochemical products. The company posted a record-breaking $55.7 billion in profits in 2022 and $36 billion in 2023.

Across the street are empty fields and roads leading into neighborhoods that have been designated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture as a low-income food desert. A mile drive down the street to Route 67 is a Dollar General, fast-food restaurants, and tiny, rundown food stores. A Hi Nabor Supermarket is 4 miles away.

East Baton Rouge Parish’s McKinley High School, a 12-minute drive from the refinery, serves a student body that is about 80% Black and 85% poor. The school, which boasts famous alums such as rapper Kevin Gates, former NBA player Tyrus Thomas and Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Gardner C. Taylor, holds a special place in the community, but it has been beset by violence and tragedy lately. Its football team quarterback, who was killed days before graduation in 2017, was among at least four of McKinley’s students who have been shot or murdered over the past six years.

The experience is starkly different at some of the district’s more advantaged schools, including its magnet programs open to high-performing students.

Black-and-white outline of Louisiana showing the parishes, with one, near the bottom right, filled in red
East Baton Rouge Parish, marked in red, includes an Exxon Mobil Corp. campus and the city of Baton Rouge. David Benbennick/Wikimedia

Baton Rouge is a tale of two cities, with some of the worst outcomes in the state for education, income and mortality, and some of the best outcomes. “It was only separated by sometimes a few blocks,” said Edgar Cage, the lead organizer for the advocacy group Together Baton Rouge. Cage, who grew up in the city when it was segregated by Jim Crow laws, said the root cause of that disparity was racism.

“Underserved kids don’t have a path forward” in East Baton Rouge public schools, Cage said.

A 2019 report from the Urban League of Louisiana found that economically disadvantaged African American and Hispanic students are not provided equitable access to high-quality education opportunities. That has contributed to those students underperforming on standardized state assessments, such as the LEAP exam, being unprepared to advance to higher grades and being excluded from high-quality curricula and instruction, as well as the highest-performing schools and magnet schools.

“Baton Rouge is home to some of the highest performing schools in the state,” according to the report. “Yet the highest performing schools and schools that have selective admissions policies often exclude disadvantaged students and African American and Hispanic students.”

Dawn Collins, who served on the district’s school board from 2016 to 2022, said that with more funding, the district could provide more targeted interventions for students who were struggling academically or additional support to staff so they can better assist students with greater needs.

But for decades, Louisiana’s Industrial Ad Valorem Tax Exemption Program, or ITEP, allowed for 100% property tax exemptions for industrial manufacturing facilities, said Erin Hansen, the statewide policy analyst at Together Louisiana, a network of 250 religious and civic organizations across the state that advocates for grassroots issues, including tax fairness.

The ITEP program was created in the 1930s through a state constitutional amendment, allowing companies to bypass a public vote and get approval for the exemption through the governor-appointed Board of Commerce and Industry, Hansen said. For over 80 years, that board approved nearly all applications that it received, she said.

Since 2000, Louisiana has granted a total of $35 billion in corporate property tax breaks for 12,590 projects.

Louisiana’s executive order

A few efforts to reform the program over the years have largely failed. But in 2016, Gov. John Bel Edwards signed an executive order that slightly but importantly tweaked the system. On top of the state board vote, the order gave local taxing bodies – such as school boards, sheriffs and parish or city councils – the ability to vote on their own individual portions of the tax exemptions. And in 2019 the East Baton Rouge Parish School Board exercised its power to vote down an abatement.

Throughout the U.S., school boards’ power over the tax abatements that affect their budgets vary, and in some states, including Georgia, Kansas, Nevada, New Jersey and South Carolina, school boards lack any formal ability to vote or comment on tax abatement deals that affect them.

Edwards’ executive order also capped the maximum exemption at 80% and tightened the rules so routine capital investments and maintenance were no longer eligible, Hansen said. A requirement concerning job creation was also put in place.

Concerned residents and activists, led by Together Louisiana and sister group Together Baton Rouge, rallied around the new rules and pushed back against the billion-dollar corporation taking more tax money from the schools. In 2019, the campaign worked: the school board rejected a $2.9 million property tax break bid by Exxon Mobil.

After the decision, Exxon Mobil reportedly described the city as “unpredictable.”

However, members of the business community have continued to lobby for the tax breaks, and they have pushed back against further rejections. In fact, according to Hansen, loopholes were created during the rulemaking process around the governor’s executive order that allowed companies to weaken its effectiveness.

In total, 223 Exxon Mobil projects worth nearly $580 million in tax abatements have been granted in the state of Louisiana under the ITEP program since 2000.

“ITEP is needed to compete with other states – and, in ExxonMobil’s case, other countries,” according to Exxon Mobil spokesperson Lauren Kight.

She pointed out that Exxon Mobil is the largest property taxpayer for the EBR school system, paying more than $46 million in property taxes in EBR parish in 2022 and another $34 million in sales taxes.

A new ITEP contract won’t decrease this existing tax revenue, Kight added. “Losing out on future projects absolutely will.”

The East Baton Rouge Parish School Board has continued to approve Exxon Mobil abatements, passing $46.9 million between 2020 and 2022. Between 2017 and 2023, the school district has lost $96.3 million.

Taxes are highest when industrial buildings are first built. Industrial property comes onto the tax rolls at 40% to 50% of its original value in Louisiana after the initial 10-year exemption, according to the Ascension Economic Development Corp.

Exxon Mobil received its latest tax exemption, $8.6 million over 10 years – an 80% break – in October 2023 for $250 million to install facilities at the Baton Rouge complex that purify isopropyl alcohol for microchip production and that create a new advanced recycling facility, allowing the company to address plastic waste. The project created zero new jobs.

The school board approved it by a 7-2 vote after a long and occasionally contentious board meeting.

“Does it make sense for Louisiana and other economically disadvantaged states to kind of compete with each other by providing tax incentives to mega corporations like Exxon Mobil?” said EBR School Board Vice President Patrick Martin, who voted for the abatement. “Probably, in a macro sense, it does not make a lot of sense. But it is the program that we have.”

Obviously, Exxon Mobil benefits, he said. “The company gets a benefit in reducing the property taxes that they would otherwise pay on their industrial activity that adds value to that property.” But the community benefits from the 20% of the property taxes that are not exempted, he said.

“I believe if we don’t pass it, over time the investments will not come and our district as a whole will have less money,” he added.

In 2022, a year when Exxon Mobil made a record $55.7 billion, the company asked for a 10-year, 80% property tax break from the cash-starved East Baton Rouge Parish school district. A lively debate ensued.

Meanwhile, the district’s budgetary woes are coming to a head. Bus drivers staged a sickout at the start of the school year, refusing to pick up students – in protest of low pay and not having buses equipped with air conditioning amid a heat wave. The district was forced to release students early, leaving kids stranded without a ride to school, before it acquiesced and provided the drivers and other staff one-time stipends and purchased new buses with air conditioning.

The district also agreed to reestablish transfer points as a temporary response to the shortages. But that transfer-point plan has historically resulted in students riding on the bus for hours and occasionally missing breakfast when the bus arrives late, according to Angela Reams-Brown, president of the East Baton Rouge Federation of Teachers. The district plans to purchase or lease over 160 buses and solve its bus driver shortage next year, but the plan could lead to a budget crisis.

A teacher shortage looms as well, because the district is paying teachers below the regional average. At the school board meeting, Laverne Simoneaux, an ELL specialist at East Baton Rouge’s Woodlawn Elementary, said she was informed that her job was not guaranteed next year since she’s being paid through federal COVID-19 relief funds. By receiving tax exemptions, Exxon Mobil was taking money from her salary to deepen their pockets, she said.

A young student in the district told the school board that the money could provide better internet access or be used to hire someone to pick up the glass and barbed wire in the playground. But at least they have a playground – Hayden Crockett, a seventh grader at Sherwood Middle Academic Magnet School, noted that his sister’s elementary school lacked one.

“If it wasn’t in the budget to fund playground equipment, how can it also be in the budget to give one of the most powerful corporations in the world a tax break?” Crockett said. “The math just ain’t mathing.”

Christine Wen worked for the nonprofit organization Good Jobs First from June 2019 to May 2022 where she helped collect tax abatement data.

Nathan Jensen has received funding from the John and Laura Arnold Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. He is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center.

Danielle McLean and Kevin Welner do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Revving up tourism: Formula One and other big events look set to drive growth in the hospitality industry

With big events drawing a growing share of of tourism dollars, F1 offers a potential glimpse of the travel industry’s future.

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Sergio Perez of Oracle Red Bull Racing, right, and Charles Leclerc of the Scuderia Ferrari team compete in the Las Vegas Grand Prix on Nov. 19, 2023. Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

In late 2023, I embarked on my first Formula One race experience, attending the first-ever Las Vegas Grand Prix. I had never been to an F1 race; my interest was sparked during the pandemic, largely through the Netflix series “Formula 1: Drive to Survive.”

But I wasn’t just attending as a fan. As the inaugural chair of the University of Florida’s department of tourism, hospitality and event management, I saw this as an opportunity. Big events and festivals represent a growing share of the tourism market – as an educator, I want to prepare future leaders to manage them.

And what better place to learn how to do that than in the stands of the Las Vegas Grand Prix?

A smiling professor is illuminated by bright lights in a nighttime photo taken at a Formula 1 event in Nevada.
The author at the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Katherine Fu

The future of tourism is in events and experiences

Tourism is fun, but it’s also big business: In the U.S. alone, it’s a US$2.6 trillion industry employing 15 million people. And with travelers increasingly planning their trips around events rather than places, both industry leaders and academics are paying attention.

Event tourism is also key to many cities’ economic development strategies – think Chicago and its annual Lollapalooza music festival, which has been hosted in Grant Park since 2005. In 2023, Lollapalooza generated an estimated $422 million for the local economy and drew record-breaking crowds to the city’s hotels.

That’s why when Formula One announced it would be making a 10-year commitment to host races in Las Vegas, the region’s tourism agency was eager to spread the news. The 2023 grand prix eventually generated $100 million in tax revenue, the head of that agency later announced.

Why Formula One?

Formula One offers a prime example of the economic importance of event tourism. In 2022, Formula One generated about $2.6 billion in total revenues, according to the latest full-year data from its parent company. That’s up 20% from 2021 and 27% from 2019, the last pre-COVID year. A record 5.7 million fans attended Formula One races in 2022, up 36% from 2019.

This surge in interest can be attributed to expanded broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals and a growing global fan base. And, of course, the in-person events make a lot of money – the cheapest tickets to the Las Vegas Grand Prix were $500.

Two brightly colored race cars are seen speeding down a track in a blur.
Turn 1 at the first Las Vegas Grand Prix. Rachel Fu, CC BY

That’s why I think of Formula One as more than just a pastime: It’s emblematic of a major shift in the tourism industry that offers substantial job opportunities. And it takes more than drivers and pit crews to make Formula One run – it takes a diverse range of professionals in fields such as event management, marketing, engineering and beyond.

This rapid industry growth indicates an opportune moment for universities to adapt their hospitality and business curricula and prepare students for careers in this profitable field.

How hospitality and business programs should prepare students

To align with the evolving landscape of mega-events like Formula One races, hospitality schools should, I believe, integrate specialized training in event management, luxury hospitality and international business. Courses focusing on large-scale event planning, VIP client management and cross-cultural communication are essential.

Another area for curriculum enhancement is sustainability and innovation in hospitality. Formula One, like many other companies, has increased its emphasis on environmental responsibility in recent years. While some critics have been skeptical of this push, I think it makes sense. After all, the event tourism industry both contributes to climate change and is threatened by it. So, programs may consider incorporating courses in sustainable event management, eco-friendly hospitality practices and innovations in sustainable event and tourism.

Additionally, business programs may consider emphasizing strategic marketing, brand management and digital media strategies for F1 and for the larger event-tourism space. As both continue to evolve, understanding how to leverage digital platforms, engage global audiences and create compelling brand narratives becomes increasingly important.

Beyond hospitality and business, other disciplines such as material sciences, engineering and data analytics can also integrate F1 into their curricula. Given the younger generation’s growing interest in motor sports, embedding F1 case studies and projects in these programs can enhance student engagement and provide practical applications of theoretical concepts.

Racing into the future: Formula One today and tomorrow

F1 has boosted its outreach to younger audiences in recent years and has also acted to strengthen its presence in the U.S., a market with major potential for the sport. The 2023 Las Vegas race was a strategic move in this direction. These decisions, along with the continued growth of the sport’s fan base and sponsorship deals, underscore F1’s economic significance and future potential.

Looking ahead in 2024, Formula One seems ripe for further expansion. New races, continued advancements in broadcasting technology and evolving sponsorship models are expected to drive revenue growth. And Season 6 of “Drive to Survive” will be released on Feb. 23, 2024. We already know that was effective marketing – after all, it inspired me to check out the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

I’m more sure than ever that big events like this will play a major role in the future of tourism – a message I’ll be imparting to my students. And in my free time, I’m planning to enhance my quality of life in 2024 by synchronizing my vacations with the F1 calendar. After all, nothing says “relaxing getaway” quite like the roar of engines and excitement of the racetrack.

Rachel J.C. Fu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023

Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady…

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Take-up at the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility (ON RRP) has halved over the past six months, declining by more than $1 trillion since June 2023. This steady decrease follows a rapid increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022, and a period of relatively stable balances during the first half of 2023. In this post, we interpret the recent drop in ON RRP take-up through the lens of the channels that we identify in our recent Staff Report as driving its initial increase.

ON RRP Take-up Has Been Decreasing since June 2023…

A blue single-line chart depicts ON RRP take-pp from 2020  through the end of 2023 in trillions of U.S. dollars. The chart shows a steady increase from close to zero in early 2021 to $2.2 trillion in December 2022. Ater a period of relatively stable balances in the first half of 2023, the chart shows a recent drop in ON RRP take-up.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis. FRED database.

Banks’ Balance-Sheet Costs

As the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, it increased the supply of reserves to the banking system and, as a result, banks’ balance sheets also grew. Reserves increased from $1.6 trillion—or 9 percent of banks assets—in January 2020 to $3.2 trillion—or 16 percent of bank assets—over the following three months, reaching a historical maximum of 19 percent of banks’ assets in September 2021. As the chart below shows, bank assets also grew from $18 trillion in January of 2020 to $20 trillion in April 2020, and continued to increase to $23 trillion in May 2023.

As banks’ balance sheets expand, regulatory ratios—such as the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR)—are likely to become tighter for some institutions. Banks react to increased balance-sheet costs by pushing some of their deposits toward the money market fund (MMF) industry—for instance, by lowering the rate paid on bank deposits—and reducing their demand for short-term debt. As we explain in our paper, both effects are likely to have boosted ON RRP take-up during March 2021 – May 2023, as most MMFs are eligible to invest in the ON RRP and do so especially when alternative investment options, such as banks’ wholesale short-term debt—including repos by dealers affiliated with a bank holding company—dwindle.

Likely, these effects have subsided relative to 2022. Indeed, since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023, below the average of 16 percent observed between March 2020 and May 2023. Since the SLR treats all assets in the same way regardless of their riskiness, large banks’ balance-sheet expansions are particularly costly if they are used to finance safe assets with low returns. Therefore, though bank assets have remained relatively stable, the recent decline in the ratio of reserves to bank assets has likely reduced banks’ overall balance-sheet costs.

…while Bank Assets and Reserves Relative to Bank Assets Have Remained Roughly Constant.

 A two-line chart depicts bank assets in red and the ratio of bank reserves to assets in blue from 2020 to late 2023. Since June 2023, bank assets have hovered around $23 trillion, slightly below their March 2023 peak. Moreover, reserves have been around 14 percent of bank assets since June 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED database.

Consistent with a decrease in banks’ balance-sheet costs (and an increase in the supply of bank debt), the interest rates at which banks and broker dealers borrow via overnight Treasury-backed repos have increased since the fourth quarter of 2022 and are now a few basis points above the ON RRP rate (see chart below). This positive rate differential pushes MMFs away from investing at the ON RRP facility and into private repos.

The SOFR-ON RRP Spread Has Been Positive…

A blue single-line chart depicts the spread between the secured overnight financing rate and the ON RRP rate in basis points from 2020 through the end of 2024. The rate differential has been positive since early 2023.
Source: Federal Reserve of St. Louis, FRED database.

Monetary Policy

Monetary policy can affect ON RRP take-up by MMFs in two ways. First, the interest-rate pass-through of MMF shares is higher than that of bank deposits; as a result, the size of the MMF industry comoves with the monetary policy cycle as investors switch from bank deposits to MMF shares when the policy rate increases. Though the assets of the MMF industry are at an all-time high, the pace of the increase has somewhat decreased recently, consistent with a slower pace of monetary policy tightening; moreover, the share of MMF assets managed by government funds—the ones most likely to invest in the ON RRP—has decreased since June 2022 by 7 percentage points.

Second, monetary policy can affect MMFs’ take-up at the ON RRP also through its effect on interest-rate uncertainty. Higher uncertainty leads MMFs to rebalance their portfolios toward investments with shorter duration; the ON RRP is one such investment as it is overnight. Indeed, interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023. Recently, however, the increase has been partially reversed. Indeed, the average level of the MOVE was 125.6 in the first half of 2023 but declined to 117.3 in the second half of the year.

…while Interest-Rate Uncertainty Has Been Decreasing.

A blue single line chart shows that interest rate uncertainty—as measured by the MOVE index—had increased substantially during the latest tightening cycle, raising from 57.3 in May 2021 to 136 in May 2023.
Source: Yahoo! Finance.

The Supply of T-bills

A third driver of ON RRP take-up is the supply of T-bills. The Federal Government has expanded the supply of T-bills dramatically in 2023: T-bills outstanding increased from $3.7 trillion at the end of 2022 to $5.3 trillion at the end of September 2023, with a $1.3 trillion increase since June. As the supply of T-bills grows, the investment options of MMFs—and especially of government funds, which represent 83 percent of the industry and can only invest in short-term government debt and repos backed by government debt—expand and, as a result, their investment in the ON RRP dwindles. In our staff report, we estimate that a $100 billion increase in the amount of T-bill issuance reduces the proportion of ON RRP investment in a government-MMF portfolio by 2.3 percentage points, relative to that in a prime-MMF portfolio; since average monthly T-bill issuance went from $1.12 trillion in the period from 2022:Q1-2023:Q1 to $1.53 trillion in 2023:Q2-2023:Q3, this effect on portfolio rebalancing amounts to an additional decrease in ON RRP investment of roughly $350 billion.

Summing It Up

The increase in ON RRP take-up between 2021 and May 2023 was driven by a series of factors: a rise in banks’ balance-sheet costs due to the expansion of the supply of reserves in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rapid hikes in policy rates aimed at fighting inflation and the resulting increase in interest-rate uncertainty, and the decrease in the T-bill supply of 2021-22 resulting from the normalization of public debt after the COVID-19  crisis.

These factors have reversed: the Federal Reserve restarted running off its balance sheet after the temporary expansion during the banking turmoil of March 2023; the growth of the banking system waned while the ratio of reserves to asset decreased; the pace of interest-rate hikes slowed down; and the T-bill supply increased again. If these dynamics persist in the months ahead, ON RRP take-up may continue to decrease. Such a steady decline would be consistent with that observed in early 2018, when investment at the ON RRP gradually disappeared as the Federal Reserve continued to normalize the size of its balance sheet and reserves in the banking system became less abundant.

Gara Afonso is the head of Banking Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Marco Cipriani is the head of Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.  

Gabriele La Spada is a financial research economist in Money and Payments Studies in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.   

How to cite this post:
Gara Afonso, Marco Cipriani, and Gabriele La Spada, “Dropping Like a Stone: ON RRP Take‑up in the Second Half of 2023,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, December 19, 2023, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/12/dropping-like-a-stone-on-rrp-take-up-in-the-second-half-of-2023/.

Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author(s).

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