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Blain: A Non-American’s Take On The US Election

Blain: A Non-American’s Take On The US Election

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Blain: A Non-American's Take On The US Election Tyler Durden Tue, 10/27/2020 - 10:52

Authored by Bill Blain via MorningPorridge.com,

“In America, anyone can become President. That’s the Problem.”

The US Election – Who wins?

This morning’s Porridge is very much written for the non-American audience – please don’t be offended at the temerity of a Scotsman opining on US politics.

With only a week to go before the most important US election ever (since the last one, and before the next one), do we get four more years of Chaotic Trump or will Sleepy Joe Biden take the Presidency? The choice has profound implications for the direction of the global economy, growth, trade, jobs, welfare and the future path of the pandemic-ravaged and financially-crippled West versus an economically resurgent China. The consequences of the next week will be with us for decades – and maybe longer. 

The election comes at a nadir for the democratic political system under which Western Economies once thrived. The pandemic has capped out an extraordinarily damaging era of populist politics through which the quality of our elected leaders has declined, while our nations have struggled with low growth, low value jobs, and the growing dysfunctionality of capitalism as a result of the misapplication of monetary policy and regulatory mission-creep since 2008. The West looks tired as we struggle to cope with low growth, financial instability, rising inequality and fraxious social tensions. 

What we definitely don’t need is more of the same…. 

I think we can all agree that if you were looking for the right politician to lead the US, and therefore the West, Donald Trump or Joe Biden would not be anywhere on your list.  Trump is generally reviled in Europe for his behaviour and character – but is probably not as bad as he’s portrayed.  We don’t really know Biden except as a long-term Washington insider, but, over here we prefer him because he’s not Trump. 

Determining who will win is not like a European election.  American politics, a bit like US sport, is all about numbers and data. Trying to work out what that data means can be somewhat off-putting. Here in Europe we play the beautiful game of Football, and the fast-paced entertaining battle that is Rugby. Our American cousins have merged these into a micromanaged nonsense that’s all about yards gained and interminable stops where commentators spout numbers and more numbers. 

And when you are trying to place your market and investment bets on the Election, you need to understand these numbers – especially at the State Level in the Presidential and Senate races.  Just like in US sport, numbers are what matter in US elections. 

This morning RealClear Politics shows recent polls to be mixed. 

A Rasmussen poll put Trump ahead by 1 point this morning. Rasmussen tends to be an outlier from other polls (and does seem to favour Trump), but they were the most accurate pollster in the 2016 election. Other national polls yesterday put Biden ahead by 7 points – a broadly consistent trend. Biden’s apparent lead is narrowing.

I don’t know how much credence to put on the US polls. There is just so much background noise, too many questions and too many hints and suggestions they may not be reliable. (Let me caveat that – the polls in the UK in 2019 were essentially correct after getting it wrong in 2016.) The fact we don’t trust the polls is a great success for the trailing party – the Republicans will stop at nothing to convince the electorate the race is really close. They were unlikely to ever admit they were losing. If they did, why would supporters bother to turn up?

I’ve been listening, reading, watching, and taking advice from a number of sources, including some very smart US market contacts on both sides of the political spectrum. 

For a while it looked as if the election could result in a Biden Presidency and a Republican Senate. Depending on your political perspective, that would be a recipe for either complete gridlock, or could mitigate excessive Democrat tax and spend policies. That option now looks off the table – an all-out win for either side now looks probable. Many of the senate races are now described a “toss-up”. In such a situation any big swing towards one candidate or the other become more important. Let’s not forget; 33% of Americans have already voted.

Let’s briefly discuss the competing narratives around the election. 

Democrats have wisely played the Coronavirus card – arguing Trump failed. It’s played to concerned voters and worked as a strategy. In addition, they are happy to point to swings against Trump from younger and female voters, and all the predictable stuff about the electorate turned off by Trump and his family. They talk about White House chaos, leadership by twitter, but are pretty much content to ride with the polls and let the virus lead. Trump hasn’t hit them with anything as strong as the “Crooked Hillary” theme or MAGA. His campaign has lacked the enthusiastic momentum that won in 2016 and turned key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The Republicans are working much harder to argue why the polls are wrong. They raise their success in registering new voters. They explain the polls are wrong because of “shy-Trump syndrome”; how many professionals in cities are scared to admit being a Trump supporter. (More than a few of my Republican chums admit Trumps’ bad, and feel “dirty” voting for him.) Accusing the Biden family of corruption is a key deflection strategy. They attack Biden’s tax and spend policies and accuse him of being a socialist stooge. It’s all pretty much playbook dirty politics stuff. 

Yet there are some good reasons to think the Trump vote may be underestimated – in last week’s debate Trump’s success was Biden upsetting critical voters with his comments on phasing out Fossil Fuels and his anti-fracking stance. In some states police forces are successfully mobilising friends and family campaigns against “defunding” programmes. Many Americans find Trump distasteful, but will vote for him because they agree with his trends. That doesn’t make them bad people.

I find it extraordinary Trump called UK journalist and breakfast TV host Piers Morgan over the weekend to tell him why he is winning. Why Trump thinks a UK journalist regarded as a second-rate Boris will swing his election we will never know… except it might address the domestic perception Trump has damaged the Western Alliance (a fact) by showing “highly-esteemed” foreign journalists rate him highly. Last month there was a similar “puff” piece by Nigel Farage.

Whatever the top-line polls say, even hardened Trump supporters admit Biden is likely to win the popular vote by 3-5%.  Biden could well win by 7 million votes. Turnout looks set to be the highest in decades at 150mm; 65% of the electorate. High turnout is said to favour Democrats. But, high turnouts in New York and California and Illinois don’t help Biden win the critical electoral college votes. 

Biden can win the vote and lose the election

That’s why the US Election will be decided in the key 16 states. How these states vote will determine the electoral college and also impact senate races.

Florida is the big one for Trump. If he loses Florida he probably loses the White House

Pennsylvania and Michigan are the key states for Biden. If he loses either, he probably loses his chance at the presidency. 

What states do the candidates have to win? 

· Trump needs to win TexasArizona, North Carolina, Iowa, and Georgia.  

· Biden needs to win Texas and/or FloridaWisconsinIowaOhioMinnesotaArizonaNew HampshireNew Mexico and Nevada.

(Maine and Nebraska are also battle grounds, but are a little funny as they send electors by district… but let’s not worry about that.)

Let’s take a look at the latest polls in each key state from RealClear Politics

Florida:  Ranges from Biden+2 (CBS), Trump+4 (Rasmussen) – call it a Tie.

Pennsylvania: Biden +5 – Biden to Win – 20 EC votes

Michigan: Biden +9 – Biden to Win - 16 EC votes 

Texas: Trump +5 – Trump to Win – 38 EC votes

Iowa: Tie – 6 EC Votes

North Carolina: Trump +1 – Tie – 15 EC votes

Georgia: Biden +1 – Tie – 16 EC votes

Maine: Biden +11 – Biden to Win – 4 EC votes

Wisconsin Ranges from Tie to Biden +5 – Bidento Win – 10 EC votes

Ohio Trump +3 – Trump to Win – 18 EC votes

Minnesota:  Biden +6 – Biden to Win – 10 EC votes

Arizona:   Trump +1 – Tie - 11 EC votes

New Hampshire: Biden + 12 – Biden to Win – 4 EC votes

New Mexico: Biden + 14 – Biden to Win – 5 EC votes

Nevada: Biden +4 – Biden to Win – 6 EC votes

Nebraska: Biden +7 – Biden to Win – 5 EC votes

There are 538 electoral college votes to be won.  There is a great map you can play with on ABC News: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-Electoral-Interactive-Map

Trump starts with at least 137 safe votes from solid Red Republican states. (Some analysts have that number as 125.) He therefore needs at least a further 133 votes to win the 270 hurdle. Trump looks vulnerable in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia (60 votes) and could lose Texas (38 votes) which was polled at +4 to Biden last week. He could win 29 votes from other battleground states like Ohio and Arizona. Even if he wins all these target states, he still falls short, meaning he needs to win the other states like Iowa and even Biden’s home state of Pennsylvania to win. 

Biden starts with 180 safe votes from True Blue Democrat states. (Other estimates go as high as 232 safe votes.) He needs 90 additional votes to win. The polls show Biden is likely to hold his key states and win most of his target states – gaining a comfortable 108 Electoral college votes not counting the tied states. A state that could smash Biden is Texas – if he loses in Texas and Trump wins everything else, Biden will lose in the electoral college unless he takes Florida or a combination of other tied states. 

It is going to be “interesting”… There are so many possibilities out there. 

There are 28 Senate Seats up for election. 9 will go Republican, 8 will go Democrat, but the remaining 11 are “toss-ups”. All it will take for the Senate to flip Democrat is a few of these to swing in line with a Biden taking Red states.  In a worst case scenario we might not know the result on one of Georgia Senate seats till Jan 5th next year, meaning the Senate could be hung and under Republican control till then.

This week it is all about numbers.. This time next week we might be worrying about how the election will play out not in the ballot box, but in the court-room and twitter tantrums. 

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EyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire

Ramiro Ribeiro
After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.
“The…

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Ramiro Ribeiro

After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.

“The retinal community is relatively small, so everybody knows each other,” Ribeiro told Endpoints News in an interview. “As soon as I started to talk about EyePoint, I got really good feedback from KOLs and physicians on its scientific standards and quality of work.”

Ribeiro kicked off his career as a clinician in Brazil, earning a doctorate in stem cell therapy for retinal diseases. He previously held roles at Alcon and Ophthotech Corporation, now known as Astellas’ M&A prize Iveric Bio.

At Apellis, Ribeiro oversaw the Phase III development, filing and approval of Syfovre, the first drug for geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The complement C3 inhibitor went on to make $275 million in 2023 despite reports of a rare side effect that only emerged after commercialization.

Now, Ribeiro is hoping to replicate that success with EyePoint’s lead candidate, EYP-1901 for wet AMD, which is set to enter the Phase III LUGANO trial in the second half of the year after passing a Phase II test in December.

Ribeiro told Endpoints he was optimistic about the company’s intraocular sustained-delivery tech, which he said could help address treatment burden and compliance issues seen with injectables. He also has plans to expand the EyePoint team.

“My goal is not just execution of the Phase III study — of course that’s a priority — but also looking at the pipeline and which different assets we can bring in to leverage the strength of the team that we have,” Ribeiro said.

Ayisha Sharma


Remco Steenbergen

Sandoz CFO Colin Bond will retire on June 30 and board member Remco Steenbergen will replace him. Steenbergen, who will step down from the board when he takes over on July 1, had a 20-year career with Philips and has held the group CFO post at Deutsche Lufthansa since January 2021. Bond joined Sandoz nearly two years ago and is the former finance chief at Evotec and Vifor Pharma. Investors didn’t react warmly to Wednesday’s news as shares fell by almost 4%.

The Swiss generics and biosimilars company, which finally split from Novartis in October 2023, has also nominated FogPharma CEO Mathai Mammen to the board of directors. The ex-R&D chief at J&J will be joined by two other new faces, Swisscom chairman Michael Rechsteiner and former Unilever CFO Graeme Pitkethly.

On Monday, Sandoz said it completed its $70 million purchase of Coherus BioSciencesLucentis biosimilar Cimerli sooner than expected. The FDA then approved its first two biosimilars of Amgen’s denosumab the next day, in a move that could whittle away at the pharma giant’s market share for Prolia and Xgeva.

Sean Marett

BioNTech’s chief business and commercial officer Sean Marett will retire on July 1 and will have an advisory role “until the end of the year,” the German drugmaker said in a release. Legal chief James Ryan will assume CBO responsibilities and BioNTech plans to name a new chief commercial officer by the end of the month. Marett was hired as BioNTech’s COO in 2012 after gigs at GSK, Evotec and Next Pharma, and led its commercial efforts as the Pfizer-partnered Comirnaty received the first FDA approval for a Covid-19 vaccine. BioNTech has also built a cancer portfolio that TD Cowen’s Yaron Werber described as “one of the most extensive” in biotech, from antibody-drug conjugates to CAR-T therapies.

Chris Austin

→ GSK has plucked Chris Austin from Flagship and he’ll start his new gig as the pharma giant’s SVP, research technologies on April 1. After a long career at NIH in which he was director of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Austin became CEO of Flagship’s Vesalius Therapeutics, which debuted with a $75 million Series A two years ago this week but made job cuts that affected 43% of its employees six months into the life of the company. In response to Austin’s departure, John Mendlein — who chairs the board at Sail Biomedicines and has board seats at a few other Flagship biotechs — will become chairman and interim CEO at Vesalius “later this month.”

BioMarin has lined up Cristin Hubbard to replace Jeff Ajer as chief commercial officer on May 20. Hubbard worked for new BioMarin chief Alexander Hardy as Genentech’s SVP, global product strategy, immunology, infectious diseases and ophthalmology, and they had been colleagues for years before Hardy was named Genentech CEO in 2019. She shifted to Roche Diagnostics as global head of partnering in 2021 and had been head of global product strategy for Roche’s pharmaceutical division since last May. Sales of the hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian have fallen well short of expectations, but Hardy insisted in a recent investor call that BioMarin is “still very much at the early stage” in the launch.

Pilar de la Rocha

BeiGene has promoted Pilar de la Rocha to head of Europe, global clinical operations. After 13 years in a variety of roles at Novartis, de la Rocha was named global head of global clinical operations excellence at the Brukinsa maker in the summer of 2022. A short time ago, BeiGene ended its natural killer cell therapy alliance with Shoreline Biosciences, saying that it was “a result of BeiGene’s internal prioritization decisions and does not reflect any deficit in Shoreline’s platform technology.”

Andy Crockett

Andy Crockett has resigned as CEO of KalVista Pharmaceuticals. Crockett had been running the company since its launch in 2011 and will hand the keys to president Ben Palleiko, who joined KalVista in 2016 as CFO. Serious safety issues ended a Phase II study of its hereditary angioedema drug KVD824, but KalVista is mounting a comeback with positive Phase III results for sebetralstat in the same indication and could compete with Takeda’s injectable Firazyr. “If approved, sebetralstat may offer a compelling treatment option for patients and their caregivers given the long-standing preference for an effective and safe oral therapy that provides rapid symptom relief for HAE attacks,” Crockett said last month.

Steven Lo

Vaxart has tapped Steven Lo as its permanent president and CEO, while interim chief Michael Finney will stay on as chairman. Endpoints News last caught up with Lo when he became CEO at Valitor, the UC Berkeley spinout that raised a $28 million Series B round in October 2022. The ex-Zosano Pharma CEO had a handful of roles in his 13 years at Genentech before his appointments as chief commercial officer of Corcept Therapeutics and Puma Biotechnology. Andrei Floroiu resigned as Vaxart’s CEO in mid-January.

Kartik Krishnan

Kartik Krishnan has taken over for Martin Driscoll as CEO of OncoNano Medicine, and Melissa Paoloni has moved up to COO at the cancer biotech located in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Southlake. The execs were colleagues at Arcus Biosciences, Gilead’s TIGIT partner: Krishnan spent two and a half years in the CMO post, while Paoloni was VP of corporate development and external alliances. In 2022, Krishnan took the CMO job at OncoNano and was just promoted to president and head of R&D last November. Paoloni came on board as OncoNano’s SVP, corporate development and strategy not long after Krishnan’s first promotion.

Genesis Research Group, a consultancy specializing in market access, has brought in David Miller as chairman and CEO, replacing co-founder Frank Corvino — who is transitioning to the role of vice chairman and senior advisor. Miller joins the New Jersey-based team with a number of roles under his belt from Biogen (SVP of global market access), Elan (VP of pharmacoeconomics) and GSK (VP of global health outcomes).

Adrian Schreyer

Adrian Schreyer helped build Exscientia’s AI drug discovery platform from the ground up, but he has packed his bags for Nimbus Therapeutics’ AI partner Anagenex. The new chief technology officer joined Exscientia in 2013 as head of molecular informatics and was elevated to technology chief five years later. He then held the role of VP, AI technology until January, a month before Exscientia fired CEO Andrew Hopkins.

Paul O’Neill has been promoted from SVP to EVP, quality & operations, specialty brands at Mallinckrodt. Before his arrival at the Irish pharma in March 2023, O’Neill was executive director of biologics operations in the second half of his 12-year career with Merck driving supply strategy for Keytruda. Mallinckrodt’s specialty brands portfolio includes its controversial Acthar Gel (a treatment for flares in a number of chronic and autoimmune indications) and the hepatorenal syndrome med Terlivaz.

David Ford

→ Staying in Ireland, Prothena has enlisted David Ford as its first chief people officer. Ford worked in human resources at Sanofi from 2002-17 and then led the HR team at Intercept, which was sold to Italian pharma Alfasigma in late September. We recently told you that Daniel Welch, the former InterMune CEO who was a board member at Intercept for six years, will succeed Lars Ekman as Prothena’s chairman.

Ben Stephens

→ Co-founded by Sanofi R&D chief Houman Ashrafian and backed by GSK, Eli Lilly partner Sitryx stapled an additional $39 million to its Series A last fall. It has now welcomed a pair of execs: Ben Stephens (COO) had been finance director for ViaNautis Bio and Rinri Therapeutics, and Gordon Dingwall (head of clinical operations) is a Roche and AstraZeneca vet who led development operations at Mission Therapeutics. Dingwall has also served as a clinical operations leader for Shionogi and Freeline Therapeutics.

Steve Alley

MBrace Therapeutics, an antibody-drug conjugate specialist that nabbed $85 million in Series B financing last November, has named Steve Alley as CSO. Alley spent two decades at Seagen before the $43 billion buyout by Pfizer and was the ADC maker’s executive director, translational sciences.

→ California cancer drug developer Apollomics, which has been mired in Nasdaq compliance problems nearly a year after it joined the public markets through a SPAC merger, has recruited Matthew Plunkett as CFO. Plunkett has held the same title at Nkarta as well as Imago BioSciences — leading the companies to $290 million and $155 million IPOs, respectively — and at Aeovian Pharmaceuticals since March 2022.

Heinrich Haas

→ Co-founded by Oxford professor Adrian Hill — the co-inventor of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine — lipid nanoparticle biotech NeoVac has brought in Heinrich Haas as chief technology officer. During his nine years at BioNTech, Haas was VP of RNA formulation and drug delivery.

Kimberly Lee

→ New Jersey-based neuro biotech 4M Therapeutics is making its Peer Review debut by introducing Kimberly Lee as CBO. Lee was hired at Taysha Gene Therapies during its meteoric rise in 2020 and got promoted to chief corporate affairs officer in 2022. Earlier, she led corporate strategy and investor relations efforts for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals.

→ Another Peer Review newcomer, Osmol Therapeutics, has tapped former Exelixis clinical development chief Ron Weitzman as interim CMO. Weitzman only lasted seven months as medical chief of Tango Therapeutics after Marc Rudoltz had a similarly short stay in that position. Osmol is going after chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy and chemotherapy-induced cognitive impairment with its lead asset OSM-0205.

→ Last August, cardiometabolic disease player NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals locked in Hyung Heon Kim as president and CEO. Now, the company is giving Marshall Woodworth the title of CFO and principal financial and accounting officer, after he served in the interim since last October. Before NeuroBo, Woodworth had a string of CFO roles at Nevakar, Braeburn Pharmaceuticals, Aerocrine and Fureix Pharmaceuticals.

Claire Poll

Claire Poll has retired after more than 17 years as Verona Pharma’s general counsel, and the company has appointed Andrew Fisher as her successor. In his own 17-year tenure at United Therapeutics that ended in 2018, Fisher was chief strategy officer and deputy general counsel. The FDA will decide on Verona’s non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis candidate ensifentrine by June 26.

Nancy Lurker

Alkermes won its proxy battle with Sarissa Capital Management and is tinkering with its board nearly nine months later. The newest director, Bristol Myers Squibb alum Nancy Lurker, ran EyePoint Pharmaceuticals from 2016-23 and still has a board seat there. For a brief period, Lurker was chief marketing officer for Novartis’ US subsidiary.

→ Chaired by former Celgene business development chief George Golumbeski, Shattuck Labs has expanded its board to nine members by bringing in ex-Seagen CEO Clay Siegall and Tempus CSO Kate Sasser. Siegall holds the top spots at Immunome and chairs the board at Tourmaline Bio, while Sasser came to Tempus from Genmab in 2022.

Scott Myers

→ Ex-AMAG Pharmaceuticals and Rainier Therapeutics chief Scott Myers has been named chairman of the board at Convergent Therapeutics, a radiopharma player that secured a $90 million Series A last May. Former Magenta exec Steve Mahoney replaced Myers as CEO of Viridian Therapeutics a few months ago.

→ Montreal-based Find Therapeutics has elected Tony Johnson to the board of directors. Johnson is in his first year as CEO of Domain Therapeutics. He is also the former chief executive at Goldfinch Bio, the kidney disease biotech that closed its doors last year.

Habib Dable

→ Former Acceleron chief Habib Dable has replaced Kala Bio CEO Mark Iwicki as chairman of the board at Aerovate Therapeutics, which is signing up patients for Phase IIb and Phase III studies of its lead drug AV-101 for pulmonary arterial hypertension. Dable joined Aerovate’s board in July and works part-time as a venture partner for RA Capital Management.

Julie Cherrington

→ In the burgeoning world of ADCs, Elevation Oncology is developing one of its own that targets Claudin 18.2. Its board is now up to eight members with the additions of Julie Cherrington and Mirati CMO Alan Sandler. Cherrington, a venture partner at Brandon Capital Partners, also chairs the boards at Actym Therapeutics and Tolremo Therapeutics. Sandler took the CMO job at Mirati in November 2022 and will stay in that position after Bristol Myers acquired the Krazati maker.

Patty Allen

Lonnie Moulder’s Zenas BioPharma has welcomed Patty Allen to the board of directors. Allen was a key figure in Vividion’s $2 billion sale to Bayer as the San Diego biotech’s CFO, and she’s a board member at Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, SwanBio Therapeutics and Anokion.

→ In January 2023, Y-mAbs Therapeutics cut 35% of its staff to focus on commercialization of Danyelza. This week, the company has reserved a seat on its board of directors for Nektar Therapeutics CMO Mary Tagliaferri. Tagliaferri also sits on the boards of Enzo Biochem and is a former board member of RayzeBio.

→ The ex-Biogen neurodegeneration leader at the center of Aduhelm’s controversial approval is now on the scientific advisory board at Asceneuron, a Swiss-based company focused on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. Samantha Budd-Haeberlein tops the list of new SAB members, which also includes Henrik Zetterberg, Rik Ossenkoppele and Christopher van Dyck.

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Deflationary pressures in China – be careful what you wish for

Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures….

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Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures. However, China’s consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in December 2023, delaying the expected rebound in economic activity following the lifting of COVID-19 controls. For calendar year 2023, CPI growth was negligible, whilst the producer price index declined by 3.0 per cent.

China’s inflation dynamics

China’s inflation dynamics

Chinese consumers are hindered by the weaker residential property market and high youth unemployment. Several property developers have defaulted, collectively wiping out nearly all the U.S.$155 billion worth of U.S. dollar denominated-bonds. 

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index is at half of its record high, recorded in late 2007. The share prices of major developers, including Evergrande Group, Country Garden Holdings, Sunac China and Shimao Group, have declined by an average of 98 per cent over recent years. Some economists are pointing to the Japanese experience of a debt-deflation cycle in the 1990s, with economic stagnation and elevated debt levels.

Australia has certainly enjoyed the “pull-up effect” from China, particularly with the iron-ore price jumping from around U.S.$20/tonne in 2000 to an average closer to U.S.$120/tonne over the 17 years from 2007. With strong volume increases, the value of Australia’s iron ore exports has jumped 20-fold to around A$12 billion per month, accounting for approximately 35 per cent of Australia’s exports. 

For context, China takes 85 per cent of Australia’s iron ore exports, whilst Australia accounts for 65 per cent of China’s iron ore imports. China’s steel industry depends on its own domestic iron ore mines for 20 per cent of its requirement, however, these are high-cost operations and need high iron ore prices to keep them in business. To reduce its dependence on Australia’s iron ore, China has increased its use of scrap metal and invested large sums of money in Africa, including the Simandou mine in Guinea, which is forecast to export 60 million tonnes of iron ore from 2028.

The Chinese housing market has historically been the source of 40 per cent of China’s steel usage. However, the recent high iron ore prices are attributable to the growth in China’s industrial and infrastructure activity, which has offset the weakness in residential construction.

Whilst this has continued to deliver supernormal profits for Australia’s major iron ore producers (and has greatly assisted the federal budget), watch out for any sustainable downturn in the iron ore price, particularly if the deflationary pressures in China continue into the medium term.

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Deterra Royalties half-yearly result: stable performance and growth Initiatives

Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) was established through a strategic demerger from Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX:ILU) in 2020. At the core of Deterra Royalties portfolio…

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Deterra Royalties (ASX:DRR) was established through a strategic demerger from Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX:ILU) in 2020. At the core of Deterra Royalties portfolio lies long-life, Mining Area C (MAC), a premier iron ore mining operation in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, operationally managed by BHP. This key asset is underpinned by a royalty agreement that ensures Deterra Royalties receives quarterly payments equivalent to 1.232 per cent of the revenue generated, alongside substantial one-off payments of A$1 million for each dry metric tonne increase in annual production capacity. 

South flank, a critical component of the MAC, exemplifies BHP’s latest advancement in iron ore mining, marking its inaugural production in May 2021. In financial year 2023, MAC annual iron ore production amounted to 126 million wet metric tonnes, up 14 per cent on the prior year. The company has reiterated that capacity payments have been set at 118 million tonnes last year and are expected to be updated to current production of 126 million tonnes in June 2024, with potential upside to 145 million tonnes shortly after that. Thus, there is potential upside to dividends of $8 million in capacity payments by June 2024. Meanwhile, revenue amounted to $215.2 million plus a $13 million capacity payment from south flank expansion. Net profit after tax came in at $152.5 million. 

The company distributes 100 per cent of its profits as dividends. 

In a global landscape marked by burgeoning uncertainty and China’s post-COVID-19 economic malaise, Deterra Royalties emerges as providing iron exposure with greater stability. Deterra Royalties offers investors exposure to the iron ore market with distinctly reduced volatility compared to traditional mining entities. 

With that background established, the company released its half-yearly results for FY24, reporting figures that were largely in line with both internal expectations and market consensus. The company continues to explore avenues for portfolio expansion, particularly in bulk, base, and battery commodity royalties, although no deals have been finalised. With substantial undrawn debt facilities of $500 million and recent declines in junior mining company stocks, Deterra Royalties may be moving closer to securing new deals to create new royalties or purchase existing royalties. 

Deterra Royalties reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $78.7 million for the first half of FY24, matching internal projections and closely aligning with market estimates, albeit slightly below consensus by three per cent. The declared dividend of $14.89 conditions precedent, representing 100 per cent of NPAT in accordance with Deterra Royalties dividend policy, also fell within anticipated ranges but slightly missed consensus. Revenue for the period stood at A$119 million, consistent with the pre-reported royalty revenue update. 

Operating costs dipped by two per cent from the previous half-year to A$4.3 million but were up by four per cent year-on-year. Notably, business development costs surged to A$1.3 million, marking a 50 per cent increase from the previous period and a 140 per cent rise from the same period last year. This uptick reflects Deterra Royalties intensified efforts to evaluate growth opportunities, as managing director Julian Andrews highlighted. 

Deterra Royalties remains steadfast in its pursuit of growth opportunities, maintaining a flexible approach in both the size and type of investments/royalties sought. The company’s focus spans non-precious metals, including bulk, base, and battery metals, primarily targeting developed mining jurisdictions across Australia, North America, South America, and Europe. Deterra Royalties continues to prioritise royalties for production or near-production companies. 

A company that pays 100 per cent of its earnings as a dividend is relatively easy to value with a discounted cash flow (DCF). Adopting a required return of 6-7 per cent of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), Deterra Royalties valuation falls in a range between A$4.70 and $5.10 per share. 

In summary, Deterra Royalties’ half-yearly results provided the stable and somewhat predictable operational performance our portfolio managers value, whilst also providing iron ore exposure. 

The Montgomery Fund and the Montgomery [Private] Fund owns shares in Dettera Royalties. This blog was prepared 19 February 2024 with the information we have today, and our view may change. It does not constitute formal advice or professional investment advice. If you wish to trade Deterra Royalties, you should seek financial advice. 

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