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Bitcoin price holds $26K as MKR, AAVE, RUNE and RNDR flash bullish signals
Bitcoin looks ready to start a relief rally and this could trigger interest in MKR, AAVE, RUNE and RNDR.
After forming successive Doji…
Bitcoin looks ready to start a relief rally and this could trigger interest in MKR, AAVE, RUNE and RNDR.
After forming successive Doji candlestick patterns on the weekly chart for the past three weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) is on target to end the week on a positive note. This is an early sign that the uncertainty between the bulls and the bears is resolving to the upside.
Although the recovery is still in its early stages, the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sep. 20 could boost volatility. The majority of the market participants expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a status quo on rates but surprises could arise during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference following the rate decision.
Bitcoin’s recovery from the strong support near $24,800 has ignited buying interest in select altcoins, which are providing trading opportunities. For these altcoins to continue their upward trajectory, Bitcoin needs to maintain above $26,500.
Could Bitcoin’s relief rally pick up momentum, triggering buying in select altcoins? Let’s study the charts of top-5 cryptocurrencies that are showing promise in the near term.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin rose above the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,303) on Sep. 14, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. Since then, the bulls thwarted several attempts by the bears to yank the price back below the 20-day EMA.
Buyers will try to build upon their advantage and drive the BTC/USDT pair to the 50-day simple moving average ($27,295). This level may act as a minor hurdle but if overcome, the pair is likely to reach $28,143. The bears are expected to defend this level with vigor.
If bears want to maintain the upper hand, they will have to sink the price below the 20-day EMA. That may trap the aggressive bulls and open the doors for a potential retest of the pivotal support at $24,800.
The price has been trading above the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart indicating that the bulls are buying on dips. This suggests that the traders expect the recovery to continue. If buyers clear the hurdle at $26,900, the pair may climb to $27,600 and eventually to $28,143.
If bears want to make a comeback, they will have to sink and sustain the price below the 20-EMA. Such a move will clear the path for a further fall to the 50-SMA and later to the strong support zone between $25,600 and $25,300.
Maker price analysis
Buyers propelled Maker (MKR) above the 50-day SMA ($1,162) on Sep. 15, indicating that the bulls are attempting to take charge.
The MKR/USDT pair is on its way to $1,370. This level is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. If the bulls do not give up much ground from this level, the likelihood of a break above it increases. If that happens, the pair could pick up momentum and dash toward $1,759.
The crucial level to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($1,162). If this level cracks, it will suggest that the pair may swing inside the large range between $980 and $1,370 for some time.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls remain in command but the RSI near the overbought territory suggests a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. The 20-EMA remains the key level to watch on the downside. A break and close below it could indicate the start of a deeper correction toward the 50-SMA.
Instead, if the price bounces off the 20-EMA, it will be a sign that the bulls continue to buy the dips. That may start a rally toward the stiff overhead resistance at $1,370.
Aave price analysis
Aave (AAVE) surged above the moving averages on Sep. 16, indicating that the bulls have made their move. However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
A minor advantage in favor of the bulls is that they did not allow the bears to make a comeback and are again trying to sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($59). If they succeed, the AAVE/USDT pair is likely to accelerate toward $70 and later to $76.
The 20-day EMA ($56) is the important support to keep an eye on in the near term. If the price skids below this level, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. That could sink the pair to the solid support at $48.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls recently purchased the pullback to the 20-EMA, indicating that the sentiment has turned positive. Buyers will try to propel the price above the resistance at $63. If they can pull it off, the pair could soar to $70.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-EMA, it will suggest that demand dries up at higher levels. The pair could then slide to the 50-SMA which may attract buyers.
Related: How low can the Bitcoin price go?
THORChain price analysis
THORChain (RUNE) has staged a smart recovery in the past few days, indicating that the buyers are attempting a comeback.
The up-move is nearing the solid resistance at $2, which is likely to act as a major roadblock. If the price turns down sharply from $2, it will indicate that the bulls are rushing to the exit. That could tug the price down to the 20-day EMA ($1.62).
Contrarily, if the RUNE/USDT pair does not give up much ground from the current level, it will suggest that the bulls are holding on to their positions as they anticipate the rally to extend further. If $2 is taken out, the pair could start a new uptrend to $2.30 and subsequently to $2.80.
The 4-hour chart shows that the $2 level is acting as a resistance. The price may pull back to the 20-EMA, which is likely to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, the bulls will again attempt to overcome the obstacle at $2. If they manage to do that, the pair may soar toward $2.30.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-EMA. That could tempt several short-term traders to book profits. The pair may then slump to the 50-SMA.
Render price analysis
Render (RNDR) broke out and closed above the 50-day SMA ($1.58) on Sep. 15, indicating that the selling pressure could be reducing.
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory indicating that bulls have a slight edge. If the price turns up from the 20-day EMA ($1.50), it will suggest a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could start a stronger recovery to $1.83 and then to $2.20.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price continues lower and breaks below the moving averages. The RNDR/USDT pair could then plummet to $1.38 and later to $1.29.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart are sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating advantage to buyers. The first support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. If the price turns up from this level, it will signal that bulls continue to view the dips as a buying opportunity. That increases the possibility of a rally to $1.77.
On the contrary, if the 20-EMA gives way, the pair could slide to the 50-SMA. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it may sink the pair to $1.39.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
bitcoin crypto btc cryptoUncategorized
Comments on February Employment Report
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the …
Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation
Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in February to 83.5% from 83.3% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.
Average Hourly Wages
The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).
Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in February.
Part Time for Economic Reasons
From the BLS report:
"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 million from 4.42 million in February. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels.
These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).
Unemployed over 26 Weeks
This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.
According to the BLS, there are 1.203 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.277 million the previous month.
This is close to pre-pandemic levels.
Job Streak
Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks | ||
---|---|---|
Year Ended | Streak, Months | |
1 | 2019 | 100 |
2 | 1990 | 48 |
3 | 2007 | 46 |
4 | 1979 | 45 |
5 | 20241 | 38 |
6 tie | 1943 | 33 |
6 tie | 1986 | 33 |
6 tie | 2000 | 33 |
9 | 1967 | 29 |
10 | 1995 | 25 |
1Currrent Streak |
Summary:
The headline monthly jobs number was above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%. Another solid report.
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Immune cells can adapt to invading pathogens, deciding whether to fight now or prepare for the next battle
When faced with a threat, T cells have the decision-making flexibility to both clear out the pathogen now and ready themselves for a future encounter.
How does your immune system decide between fighting invading pathogens now or preparing to fight them in the future? Turns out, it can change its mind.
Every person has 10 million to 100 million unique T cells that have a critical job in the immune system: patrolling the body for invading pathogens or cancerous cells to eliminate. Each of these T cells has a unique receptor that allows it to recognize foreign proteins on the surface of infected or cancerous cells. When the right T cell encounters the right protein, it rapidly forms many copies of itself to destroy the offending pathogen.
Importantly, this process of proliferation gives rise to both short-lived effector T cells that shut down the immediate pathogen attack and long-lived memory T cells that provide protection against future attacks. But how do T cells decide whether to form cells that kill pathogens now or protect against future infections?
We are a team of bioengineers studying how immune cells mature. In our recently published research, we found that having multiple pathways to decide whether to kill pathogens now or prepare for future invaders boosts the immune system’s ability to effectively respond to different types of challenges.
Fight or remember?
To understand when and how T cells decide to become effector cells that kill pathogens or memory cells that prepare for future infections, we took movies of T cells dividing in response to a stimulus mimicking an encounter with a pathogen.
Specifically, we tracked the activity of a gene called T cell factor 1, or TCF1. This gene is essential for the longevity of memory cells. We found that stochastic, or probabilistic, silencing of the TCF1 gene when cells confront invading pathogens and inflammation drives an early decision between whether T cells become effector or memory cells. Exposure to higher levels of pathogens or inflammation increases the probability of forming effector cells.
Surprisingly, though, we found that some effector cells that had turned off TCF1 early on were able to turn it back on after clearing the pathogen, later becoming memory cells.
Through mathematical modeling, we determined that this flexibility in decision making among memory T cells is critical to generating the right number of cells that respond immediately and cells that prepare for the future, appropriate to the severity of the infection.
Understanding immune memory
The proper formation of persistent, long-lived T cell memory is critical to a person’s ability to fend off diseases ranging from the common cold to COVID-19 to cancer.
From a social and cognitive science perspective, flexibility allows people to adapt and respond optimally to uncertain and dynamic environments. Similarly, for immune cells responding to a pathogen, flexibility in decision making around whether to become memory cells may enable greater responsiveness to an evolving immune challenge.
Memory cells can be subclassified into different types with distinct features and roles in protective immunity. It’s possible that the pathway where memory cells diverge from effector cells early on and the pathway where memory cells form from effector cells later on give rise to particular subtypes of memory cells.
Our study focuses on T cell memory in the context of acute infections the immune system can successfully clear in days, such as cold, the flu or food poisoning. In contrast, chronic conditions such as HIV and cancer require persistent immune responses; long-lived, memory-like cells are critical for this persistence. Our team is investigating whether flexible memory decision making also applies to chronic conditions and whether we can leverage that flexibility to improve cancer immunotherapy.
Resolving uncertainty surrounding how and when memory cells form could help improve vaccine design and therapies that boost the immune system’s ability to provide long-term protection against diverse infectious diseases.
Kathleen Abadie was funded by a NSF (National Science Foundation) Graduate Research Fellowships. She performed this research in affiliation with the University of Washington Department of Bioengineering.
Elisa Clark performed her research in affiliation with the University of Washington (UW) Department of Bioengineering and was funded by a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (NSF-GRFP) and by a predoctoral fellowship through the UW Institute for Stem Cell and Regenerative Medicine (ISCRM).
Hao Yuan Kueh receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.
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Stock indexes are breaking records and crossing milestones – making many investors feel wealthier
The S&P 500 topped 5,000 on Feb. 9, 2024, for the first time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average will probably hit a new big round number soon t…
The S&P 500 stock index topped 5,000 for the first time on Feb. 9, 2024, exciting some investors and garnering a flurry of media coverage. The Conversation asked Alexander Kurov, a financial markets scholar, to explain what stock indexes are and to say whether this kind of milestone is a big deal or not.
What are stock indexes?
Stock indexes measure the performance of a group of stocks. When prices rise or fall overall for the shares of those companies, so do stock indexes. The number of stocks in those baskets varies, as does the system for how this mix of shares gets updated.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, also known as the Dow, includes shares in the 30 U.S. companies with the largest market capitalization – meaning the total value of all the stock belonging to shareholders. That list currently spans companies from Apple to Walt Disney Co.
The S&P 500 tracks shares in 500 of the largest U.S. publicly traded companies.
The Nasdaq composite tracks performance of more than 2,500 stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
The DJIA, launched on May 26, 1896, is the oldest of these three popular indexes, and it was one of the first established.
Two enterprising journalists, Charles H. Dow and Edward Jones, had created a different index tied to the railroad industry a dozen years earlier. Most of the 12 stocks the DJIA originally included wouldn’t ring many bells today, such as Chicago Gas and National Lead. But one company that only got booted in 2018 had stayed on the list for 120 years: General Electric.
The S&P 500 index was introduced in 1957 because many investors wanted an option that was more representative of the overall U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq composite was launched in 1971.
You can buy shares in an index fund that mirrors a particular index. This approach can diversify your investments and make them less prone to big losses.
Index funds, which have only existed since Vanguard Group founder John Bogle launched the first one in 1976, now hold trillions of dollars .
Why are there so many?
There are hundreds of stock indexes in the world, but only about 50 major ones.
Most of them, including the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500, are value-weighted. That means stocks with larger market values account for a larger share of the index’s performance.
In addition to these broad-based indexes, there are many less prominent ones. Many of those emphasize a niche by tracking stocks of companies in specific industries like energy or finance.
Do these milestones matter?
Stock prices move constantly in response to corporate, economic and political news, as well as changes in investor psychology. Because company profits will typically grow gradually over time, the market usually fluctuates in the short term, while increasing in value over the long term.
The DJIA first reached 1,000 in November 1972, and it crossed the 10,000 mark on March 29, 1999. On Jan. 22, 2024, it surpassed 38,000 for the first time. Investors and the media will treat the new record set when it gets to another round number – 40,000 – as a milestone.
The S&P 500 index had never hit 5,000 before. But it had already been breaking records for several weeks.
Because there’s a lot of randomness in financial markets, the significance of round-number milestones is mostly psychological. There is no evidence they portend any further gains.
For example, the Nasdaq composite first hit 5,000 on March 10, 2000, at the end of the dot-com bubble.
The index then plunged by almost 80% by October 2002. It took 15 years – until March 3, 2015 – for it return to 5,000.
By mid-February 2024, the Nasdaq composite was nearing its prior record high of 16,057 set on Nov. 19, 2021.
Index milestones matter to the extent they pique investors’ attention and boost market sentiment.
Investors afflicted with a fear of missing out may then invest more in stocks, pushing stock prices to new highs. Chasing after stock trends may destabilize markets by moving prices away from their underlying values.
When a stock index passes a new milestone, investors become more aware of their growing portfolios. Feeling richer can lead them to spend more.
This is called the wealth effect. Many economists believe that the consumption boost that arises in response to a buoyant stock market can make the economy stronger.
Is there a best stock index to follow?
Not really. They all measure somewhat different things and have their own quirks.
For example, the S&P 500 tracks many different industries. However, because it is value-weighted, it’s heavily influenced by only seven stocks with very large market values.
Known as the “Magnificent Seven,” shares in Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla now account for over one-fourth of the S&P 500’s value. Nearly all are in the tech sector, and they played a big role in pushing the S&P across the 5,000 mark.
This makes the index more concentrated on a single sector than it appears.
But if you check out several stock indexes rather than just one, you’ll get a good sense of how the market is doing. If they’re all rising quickly or breaking records, that’s a clear sign that the market as a whole is gaining.
Sometimes the smartest thing is to not pay too much attention to any of them.
For example, after hitting record highs on Feb. 19, 2020, the S&P 500 plunged by 34% in just 23 trading days due to concerns about what COVID-19 would do to the economy. But the market rebounded, with stock indexes hitting new milestones and notching new highs by the end of that year.
Panicking in response to short-term market swings would have made investors more likely to sell off their investments in too big a hurry – a move they might have later regretted. This is why I believe advice from the immensely successful investor and fan of stock index funds Warren Buffett is worth heeding.
Buffett, whose stock-selecting prowess has made him one of the world’s 10 richest people, likes to say “Don’t watch the market closely.”
If you’re reading this because stock prices are falling and you’re wondering if you should be worried about that, consider something else Buffett has said: “The light can at any time go from green to red without pausing at yellow.”
And the opposite is true as well.
Alexander Kurov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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