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Bitcoin Market Dynamics See Change After BTC Reward Halving

Bitcoin Market Dynamics See Change After BTC Reward Halving

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One month after the Bitcoin halving, several key factors seem to point to a pivotal change in the BTC market and investor behavior.

One month has passed since the 2020 Bitcoin (BTC) miner reward halving, and a lot has happened for the predominant cryptocurrency since then. From changes in investor and trader behavior to an exponential growth in institutional interest, the halving seems to have marked the start of a new reality for all Bitcoin market participants.

Although the halving did not come with the immediate price surge that many had associated with the event, there are a few key factors that indicate the start of some changes that may be here to stay, some of which may even be pivotal for the future of Bitcoin as a new asset class. 

In fact, some believe that 2020 has all the fundamentals to be a great year for Bitcoin in terms of price and visibility. A recent report by Bloomberg even expects Bitcoin to outperform its record prices from 2017 and go as high as $28,000. Recently, Simon Dedic, a co-founder of cryptocurrency analysis company Blockfyre, even went as far as to say that $150,000 could be a target in the case of a bull run

Institutional interest

Although the start of 2020 showed decreasing volumes for regulated Bitcoin derivatives on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, this trend seems to have been completely reversed following the halving, which came shortly after veteran hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones showed his appreciation for Bitcoin and revealed a stake in the digital asset, stating: “The best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse. If I am forced to forecast, my bet is it will be Bitcoin.”

Data from Skew reveals that Bitcoin derivatives on the CME started to post record figures shortly after the halving. This trend continued throughout the month of May. According to the CryptoCompare May exchange review, volumes for CME Bitcoin derivatives soared 59% and hit $7.2 billion. The document reads:

“CME total options volumes reached an all-time monthly high of 5986 contracts traded in May. This figure represents 16 times that of April’s volumes. CME futures volumes have also recovered since April, increasing 36% (number of contracts) to reach 166,000 in May.”

Following the news of the 3iQ Bitcoin fund listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange roughly a month before the halving, Grayscale revealed that their crypto funds brought in over $500 million in the first quarter of 2020, signaling that institutional interest continues to populate headlines. 

On June 10, the London-based ETC Group announced the listing of the first crypto exchange-traded product on Germany’s Xetra digital stock exchange and a recent survey published by Fidelity has found that more than one-third of institutional investors globally are long on digital assets like Bitcoin, with 80% of all investors surveyed finding this asset class appealing to some degree. Cointelegraph asked Jonathan Hobbs, the chief operating officer of digital asset hedge fund Ecstatus Capital, for his views regarding the rationale behind the recent institutional interest in BTC. Hobbs stated:

“The Fed’s bond buying program has increased its balance sheet by about $6 trillion since the 2008 financial crisis, with about half of that coming from its fourth round of QE earlier this year. As a result, more investors are seeing Bitcoin as a potential hedge against inflation. The Bitcoin halving has certainly played into this narrative. Institutions are also seeing Bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset with good risk to reward.”

Decoupling from traditional markets

Correlation with traditional markets, both in stocks and gold, has been a major point of discussion in the Bitcoin world and one that intensified greatly before the halving and following the Black Thursday crash on March 12. While some pointed to the correlation between Bitcoin and the stock market as a breaking factor for the “digital gold” comparison, it’s worth noting that all markets tended to trade in a fairly correlated manner amid the coronavirus crisis.

While the correlation between the Bitcoin and stock markets remains and with Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 having reached its highest point since January 2011, data suggests that the relationship between major markets and Bitcoin tends to shifts just before and after each halving event, which means that investors may continue to see a decoupling from stocks in the second half of 2020, especially as the effects of the pandemic decrease. 

In fact, Bitcoin has been outperforming the stock market in the second quarter, boasting returns of more than 50%. According to Matt D’Souza, CEO at Blockware Solutions and hedge fund manager, the correlation may come back as Bitcoin matures as an asset class. He stated:

“I think as more institutions get involved, the more correlated bitcoin will get with other assets. when the same people start owning the same assets or have access to the same assets is when you start to see correlations develop.”

Derivatives are growing — looming danger?

While institutional interest and relation to legacy markets can serve as an outlook of what lies ahead for Bitcoin following its third halving, the unregulated market continues to dominate BTC, particularly derivatives, which have seen substantial growth in terms of trading volume. Although volume has been rising, market data doesn’t seem to point to a clear price direction following the pre-halving bearish trends. 

According to CryptoCompare, global derivatives trading increased by 32% in May, reaching an all-time high of $602 billion. Much like previous months, options continue to see an increasing demand, with the Deribit Options volume rising by 109% to $3.06 billion in May.

As derivatives keep growing, some seem to be worried they can cause unnecessary volatility due to highly leveraged positions that cause long squeezes, where a sharp drop in price causes positions to be liquidated and brings the price further down, a scenario that was also witnessed during the March 12 crash.

Concerns that the growing interest in Bitcoin derivatives will lead to an unhealthier market do not stop there. Su Zhu, the CEO of Three Arrows Capital, recently stated that patterns like the one observed on June 1, dubbed the “Bart Simpson” pattern due to its resemblance to the cartoon character, are mostly due to the volume and interest on Bitcoin derivatives exchanges that allow for manipulation:

“I see it as the fact the vast majority of Bitcoin being held off these exchanges [...] and it’s not being traded around, so a very small amount of the Bitcoin that are out there are moving the price.” 

A “Bart Simpson” pattern in BTC

A “Bart Simpson” pattern in BTC

On-chain metrics paint a pretty picture

In fact, on-chain metrics have also showcased that these patterns have been connected to large movements by a few whales to Binance and BitMex. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju previously stated: “Multiple significant BTC inflows from Binance and BitMEX a few hours before the dip.”

While large inflows to derivatives exchanges and liquidated positions on said exchanges are a concern for the future price of Bitcoin, on-chain metrics also reveal another bullish sign for the digital asset. Investors are moving their Bitcoin away from exchanges in record-breaking numbers, a factor that has preceded positive price action for BTC before.

In the week after the halving, reserves across 17 major exchanges totaled 1.18 million BTC — the lowest value since November 2018 — signaling that investors are planning to hold their BTC for some time. On June 8, an additional 27,000 BTC was withdrawn from exchanges than was deposited. The last time there was such a significant outflow, Bitcoin appreciated by 88%.

Stablecoins

The day after the halving also marked the day that United States dollar-backed stablecoin Tether (USDT) surpassed XRP as the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, according to the Stablecoin Index. The growth in USDT follows its trend from pre-halving days, and still accounts for ~98% of all BTC-to-stablecoin volume.

Research has shown that there’s a positive relationship between the issuing of USDT and the Bitcoin price, and although stablecoin volume slowed down in April and May, according to CryptoCompare, the growth in USDT issuance still bears a positive outlook for the short and medium-term. Brian Quinlivan, marketing and social media director at cryptocurrency data provider Santiment, recently told Cointelegraph:

“When people aren’t using USDT, they most often put it in Bitcoin. And what’s cool is the fact that this USDT percentage often fluctuates a few hours or days in advance of BTC’s price reacting to it. So monitoring this metric in advance can end up producing a tremendous advantage by catching a sudden fluctuation early enough.”

The road ahead

Although only one month since the Bitcoin halving has passed, things seem to be heating up for Bitcoin as institutional interest soars alongside general derivatives volume. One week after the event, data from crypto data company The TIE showed Bitcoin’s sentiment is the highest that it has been since 2017. 

Several data points hold bullish signs for Bitcoin, but instability and market manipulation are still a major challenge, especially as more serious players continue to join its market. Changes in the way investors and traders are looking at Bitcoin are bound to have a long- to medium-term impact on the price action of BTC as more people decide to hold the asset and acquire stablecoins as a gateway into crypto. A decoupling from traditional markets may also bring new developments to Bitcoin as a new asset class, although this may change as investors decide in which category this digital asset should be placed.

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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