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Bitcoin hits $14K, UNI airdrop rejected, scammers target Trump: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 26–Nov. 1

Bitcoin hits $14K, UNI airdrop rejected, scammers target Trump: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 26–Nov. 1

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The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — one week on Cointelegraph in one link!

Coming every Sunday, Hodlers Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

 

Top Stories This Week

 

Bitcoin price hits $14,000 Exactly 12 years after white paper released

On Oct. 31, 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto released a white paper setting out his vision for Bitcoin.

Fast forward 12 years, and BTC has hit $14,000 for the first time since January 2018 a rally fueled by institutional investors. Bitcoins monthly candle also closed above $13,000, indicating a technical breakout.

The question now is this: Whats going to happen next?

It seems like the likelihood of a new bull cycle is heavily increasing, as the price of Bitcoin continues to make new higher highs and higher lows. Crucial levels to watch include the current resistance zone surrounding the $14,000 threshold.

Breaking through this level would initiate further strength to the next threshold around $16,500$17,000. These two levels are the final hurdles before a possible new all-time high, Cointelegraph analyst Michal van de Poppe said, adding that current market behavior is comparable to the cycle seen in 2016.

 

A different kind of election prediction

Bitcoin cant help bank the unbanked, claims Mastercard CEO

The enthusiasm surrounding the worlds biggest cryptocurrency right now is palpable.

Overall, the crypto market cap has managed to edge above $400 billion at the time of writing, and according to a survey by Grayscale Investments, 39% of U.S. consumers say they find BTC more appealing in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Alas, not everyone is convinced. One of them is Ajay Banga, the CEO of Mastercard.

Speaking at the Fortune Global Forum conference, he said he is deeply skeptical about cryptocurrencies and far more enthusiastic about central bank digital currencies.

Banga also warned that Bitcoin cannot help the unbanked and foster financial inclusion.

He said: Can you imagine someone who is financially excluded, trading in a way to get included through a currency that could cost the equivalent of two Coca-Cola bottles today and 21 tomorrow? Thats not a way to get them [included]. Thats a way to make them scared of the financial system.

 

Digital yuan will work with WeChat and Alipay, says bank exec

Speaking of CBDCs, were starting to learn more details about Chinas digital yuan.

This week, a senior executive at the Peoples Bank of China said its new digital asset will be compatible with major mobile payment wallets such as WeChat Pay and Alipay.

Mu Changchun also stressed that the CBDC is not designed to compete with these companies, adding: They dont belong to the same dimension. WeChat and Alipay are wallets, while the digital yuan is the money in the wallet.

This appears to be a U-turn from earlier reports that suggested Beijing intends its digital currency to serve as an alternative to these hugely popular platforms. Together, WeChat Pay and Alipay have 94% of Chinas market cornered.

In other developments, Huawei announced that its upcoming Mate40 smartphone series will include an integrated hardware wallet for the digital yuan the first smartphone to do so. The tech giant said users will be able to protect their anonymity and complete offline transactions, enabling the transfer of funds with friends and family by touching their devices together.

 

Uniswap vote on new five million UNI airdrop defeated

There was a buzz this week after Uniswap held its second-ever governance proposal. If approved, it would have seen 12,619 wallet addresses that interacted with Uniswap via a proxy contract receive 400 UNI tokens each.

The treasure chest of 5.05 million UNI would have been distributed among users of MyEtherWallet, Argent, Dharma, DeFi Saver and others. Dharma had put forward the proposal, claiming its users felt left out by the initial distribution of 150 million UNI.

Final results show that voters were overwhelmingly in favor of the measures: 37,555,068 voted for the airdrop, and just 1,280,632 voted against. Despite this, the proposal was defeated because it fell 1.1 million votes short of a quorum. The same thing happened with Uniswaps first governance vote.

The airdrop would have been worth $908 at the time of writing, substantially less than the cash value of the first airdrop seen in September.

 

Indian bank to offer crypto services across its 34 branches

An Indian bank has announced plans to offer crypto banking services online and across its 34 physical branches in the countrys north.

The United Multistate Credit Cooperative Society has teamed up with Cashaa for the new service, which comes amid Indias uncertain crypto regulations.

While the Supreme Court of India took down the crypto banking ban put in place by the Reserve Bank of India in March, most banks are still skeptical of providing services to crypto companies and individuals dealing in digital currencies.

The new venture called Unicas will allow United account holders to integrate cryptocurrency wallets directly with their accounts. Customers will also be able to directly buy Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and Cashaa, and theyll be able to take out loans against cryptocurrencies if they so wish.

 

 

 

Winners and Losers

 

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $13,807.80, Ether at $388.95 and XRP at $0.23. The total market cap is at $402,023,178,116.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Kusama (18.95%), Nexo (18.15%)and Velas (10.11%). The top three altcoin losers of the week are ABBC Coin (-35.39%), Yearn.finance (29.85%) and Band Protocol (26.98%).

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraphs market analysis.

 

Most Memorable Quotations

 

Bitcoin has held above $10,000 for over 90 days now, currently ~30% higher than this key level. This is the longest period in its history.

The TIE

 

The majority of the investors definitely want to see a straight line toward $200,000, but thats simply not happening.

Michal van de Poppe, Cointelegraph analyst

 

If stocks crash, Bitcoin powered by its large adoption s-curve, swallowing ever more capital, will present perfectly good safe haven properties.

Willy Woo, crypto statistician

Can’t hack this

Although this guidance has been coming out over the last year and weve seen enforcement, the IRS really hasnt understood crypto.

Wendy Walker, Sovos solution principal

 

Interest is on the rise: More than half of U.S. investors are interested in investing in Bitcoin.

Grayscale

 

If another country has one and we dont, that could certainly create some problems. So we want to make sure were ready. Currencies move across borders, and so we certainly wouldnt want to be surprised by some other country.

Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor

 

Bought $100 in BTC on @PayPal! Great milestone for the market!

Jeremy Allaire, Circle CEO

 

We [need] to prevent dollarization. This is one of the major designing points of the Chinese DCEP.

Zhou Xiaochuan, former Peoples Bank of China governor

 

Can you imagine someone who is financially excluded trading in a way to get included through a currency that could cost the equivalent of two Coca-Cola bottles today and 21 tomorrow? Thats not a way to get them [included]. Thats a way to make them scared of the financial system.

Ajay Banga, Mastercard CEO

 

On a risk-adjusted basis, BTC is an easier bet today than it has ever been. Its being de-risked daily.

Mike Novogratz, Galaxy Digital CEO

 

We havent made any decision on whether or not to launch a retail CBDC. But we are exploring the pros and cons with interest.

Tom Mutton, Bank of England fintech director

 

Digital currency could create value and we should think about how to establish a new type of financial system through digital currency.

Jack Ma, Alibaba Group founder

 

Cash, or government-printed money also called fiat, is actually becoming worthless, while Bitcoins value remains constant. There will never be less fiat printed than is now. Cash is only going to get more and more worthless.

Bill Barhydt, Abra CEO

 

 

Prediction of the Week

Market is proving Bitcoin is ultimate safe haven Anthony Pompliano

Anthony Pompliano has claimed that Bitcoin could not be more uncorrelated with the stock market and says the worlds biggest cryptocurrency is leaving macro assets behind.

The Morgan Creek Digital co-founder also rejected critics claims that Bitcoin is a poor store of value, writing: So how did Bitcoin do during an economic downturn? It outperformed stocks, bonds, gold, oil, and pretty much everything else.

As Cointelegraph reported, a consensus has been building that Bitcoin is not only abandoning its correlation with stocks. Last week, crypto statistician Willy Woo tweeted: The decoupling is upon us.

Unfortunately, we might not be there just yet. On Oct. 30, the price of Bitcoin abruptly dropped by 4% from the days peak as sell-offs on Wall Street intensified fueled by uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election.

 

FUD of the Week

 

Crypto scammers deface Trump campaign website, one week before election

The website for Donald Trumps re-election campaign was taken over by hackers this week.

The scammers managed to replace donaldjtrump.coms usual campaign rhetoric with a page spoofing the FBI and declaring: This site has been seized.

The attackers went on to claim that they have obtained strictly classified information and encouraged people to make donations to two Monero wallets if they wanted this data to be released.

It was even claimed that the hackers had proof that Trumps administration is involved in the origin of the coronavirus.

The communication director for the presidents campaign, Tim Murtaugh, said: There was no exposure to sensitive data because none of it is actually stored on the site. The website has been restored.

The Hoff has thoughts

Tax professional explains the most important thing for U.S. crypto holders

An expert has told Cointelegraph that crypto enthusiasts in the U.S. need to have greater awareness of their obligations come tax season.

Wendy Walker, solution principal at the tax compliance company Sovos, described reporting as the most important aspect of tax filing.

Even if you dont owe income taxes, you still have to report details of the transactions, she explained.

Walker added that the IRS has some catching up to do when it comes to regulating this space, warning: Although this guidance has been coming out over the last year, and weve seen enforcement, the IRS really hasnt understood crypto.

In other developments this week, Gemini the exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins said it is partnering with a tax compliance firm to ensure its users can count their crypto taxes in real time, as well as reduce their liabilities.

 

Best Cointelegraph Features

 

Back on track: U.S. macro events unlikely to fully derail Bitcoin price gains

As the U.S. stock market enters earnings season, analysts explain how Bitcoin could perform after earnings and the presidential election.

 

Gotta collect em all: An overview of NFT marketplaces

As NFTs gain traction, here are some of the top marketplaces for finding NFTs, as well as the future outlook of this industry.

 

Indian crypto industry expanding, but regulators seem reluctant to engage

As Cashaa launches crypto banking services in India, the cryptocurrency industry continues to grow despite uncertain regulations.

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International

EyePoint poaches medical chief from Apellis; Sandoz CFO, longtime BioNTech exec to retire

Ramiro Ribeiro
After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.
“The…

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Ramiro Ribeiro

After six years as head of clinical development at Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Ramiro Ribeiro is joining EyePoint Pharmaceuticals as CMO.

“The retinal community is relatively small, so everybody knows each other,” Ribeiro told Endpoints News in an interview. “As soon as I started to talk about EyePoint, I got really good feedback from KOLs and physicians on its scientific standards and quality of work.”

Ribeiro kicked off his career as a clinician in Brazil, earning a doctorate in stem cell therapy for retinal diseases. He previously held roles at Alcon and Ophthotech Corporation, now known as Astellas’ M&A prize Iveric Bio.

At Apellis, Ribeiro oversaw the Phase III development, filing and approval of Syfovre, the first drug for geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The complement C3 inhibitor went on to make $275 million in 2023 despite reports of a rare side effect that only emerged after commercialization.

Now, Ribeiro is hoping to replicate that success with EyePoint’s lead candidate, EYP-1901 for wet AMD, which is set to enter the Phase III LUGANO trial in the second half of the year after passing a Phase II test in December.

Ribeiro told Endpoints he was optimistic about the company’s intraocular sustained-delivery tech, which he said could help address treatment burden and compliance issues seen with injectables. He also has plans to expand the EyePoint team.

“My goal is not just execution of the Phase III study — of course that’s a priority — but also looking at the pipeline and which different assets we can bring in to leverage the strength of the team that we have,” Ribeiro said.

Ayisha Sharma


Remco Steenbergen

Sandoz CFO Colin Bond will retire on June 30 and board member Remco Steenbergen will replace him. Steenbergen, who will step down from the board when he takes over on July 1, had a 20-year career with Philips and has held the group CFO post at Deutsche Lufthansa since January 2021. Bond joined Sandoz nearly two years ago and is the former finance chief at Evotec and Vifor Pharma. Investors didn’t react warmly to Wednesday’s news as shares fell by almost 4%.

The Swiss generics and biosimilars company, which finally split from Novartis in October 2023, has also nominated FogPharma CEO Mathai Mammen to the board of directors. The ex-R&D chief at J&J will be joined by two other new faces, Swisscom chairman Michael Rechsteiner and former Unilever CFO Graeme Pitkethly.

On Monday, Sandoz said it completed its $70 million purchase of Coherus BioSciencesLucentis biosimilar Cimerli sooner than expected. The FDA then approved its first two biosimilars of Amgen’s denosumab the next day, in a move that could whittle away at the pharma giant’s market share for Prolia and Xgeva.

Sean Marett

BioNTech’s chief business and commercial officer Sean Marett will retire on July 1 and will have an advisory role “until the end of the year,” the German drugmaker said in a release. Legal chief James Ryan will assume CBO responsibilities and BioNTech plans to name a new chief commercial officer by the end of the month. Marett was hired as BioNTech’s COO in 2012 after gigs at GSK, Evotec and Next Pharma, and led its commercial efforts as the Pfizer-partnered Comirnaty received the first FDA approval for a Covid-19 vaccine. BioNTech has also built a cancer portfolio that TD Cowen’s Yaron Werber described as “one of the most extensive” in biotech, from antibody-drug conjugates to CAR-T therapies.

Chris Austin

→ GSK has plucked Chris Austin from Flagship and he’ll start his new gig as the pharma giant’s SVP, research technologies on April 1. After a long career at NIH in which he was director of the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Austin became CEO of Flagship’s Vesalius Therapeutics, which debuted with a $75 million Series A two years ago this week but made job cuts that affected 43% of its employees six months into the life of the company. In response to Austin’s departure, John Mendlein — who chairs the board at Sail Biomedicines and has board seats at a few other Flagship biotechs — will become chairman and interim CEO at Vesalius “later this month.”

BioMarin has lined up Cristin Hubbard to replace Jeff Ajer as chief commercial officer on May 20. Hubbard worked for new BioMarin chief Alexander Hardy as Genentech’s SVP, global product strategy, immunology, infectious diseases and ophthalmology, and they had been colleagues for years before Hardy was named Genentech CEO in 2019. She shifted to Roche Diagnostics as global head of partnering in 2021 and had been head of global product strategy for Roche’s pharmaceutical division since last May. Sales of the hemophilia A gene therapy Roctavian have fallen well short of expectations, but Hardy insisted in a recent investor call that BioMarin is “still very much at the early stage” in the launch.

Pilar de la Rocha

BeiGene has promoted Pilar de la Rocha to head of Europe, global clinical operations. After 13 years in a variety of roles at Novartis, de la Rocha was named global head of global clinical operations excellence at the Brukinsa maker in the summer of 2022. A short time ago, BeiGene ended its natural killer cell therapy alliance with Shoreline Biosciences, saying that it was “a result of BeiGene’s internal prioritization decisions and does not reflect any deficit in Shoreline’s platform technology.”

Andy Crockett

Andy Crockett has resigned as CEO of KalVista Pharmaceuticals. Crockett had been running the company since its launch in 2011 and will hand the keys to president Ben Palleiko, who joined KalVista in 2016 as CFO. Serious safety issues ended a Phase II study of its hereditary angioedema drug KVD824, but KalVista is mounting a comeback with positive Phase III results for sebetralstat in the same indication and could compete with Takeda’s injectable Firazyr. “If approved, sebetralstat may offer a compelling treatment option for patients and their caregivers given the long-standing preference for an effective and safe oral therapy that provides rapid symptom relief for HAE attacks,” Crockett said last month.

Steven Lo

Vaxart has tapped Steven Lo as its permanent president and CEO, while interim chief Michael Finney will stay on as chairman. Endpoints News last caught up with Lo when he became CEO at Valitor, the UC Berkeley spinout that raised a $28 million Series B round in October 2022. The ex-Zosano Pharma CEO had a handful of roles in his 13 years at Genentech before his appointments as chief commercial officer of Corcept Therapeutics and Puma Biotechnology. Andrei Floroiu resigned as Vaxart’s CEO in mid-January.

Kartik Krishnan

Kartik Krishnan has taken over for Martin Driscoll as CEO of OncoNano Medicine, and Melissa Paoloni has moved up to COO at the cancer biotech located in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburb of Southlake. The execs were colleagues at Arcus Biosciences, Gilead’s TIGIT partner: Krishnan spent two and a half years in the CMO post, while Paoloni was VP of corporate development and external alliances. In 2022, Krishnan took the CMO job at OncoNano and was just promoted to president and head of R&D last November. Paoloni came on board as OncoNano’s SVP, corporate development and strategy not long after Krishnan’s first promotion.

Genesis Research Group, a consultancy specializing in market access, has brought in David Miller as chairman and CEO, replacing co-founder Frank Corvino — who is transitioning to the role of vice chairman and senior advisor. Miller joins the New Jersey-based team with a number of roles under his belt from Biogen (SVP of global market access), Elan (VP of pharmacoeconomics) and GSK (VP of global health outcomes).

Adrian Schreyer

Adrian Schreyer helped build Exscientia’s AI drug discovery platform from the ground up, but he has packed his bags for Nimbus Therapeutics’ AI partner Anagenex. The new chief technology officer joined Exscientia in 2013 as head of molecular informatics and was elevated to technology chief five years later. He then held the role of VP, AI technology until January, a month before Exscientia fired CEO Andrew Hopkins.

Paul O’Neill has been promoted from SVP to EVP, quality & operations, specialty brands at Mallinckrodt. Before his arrival at the Irish pharma in March 2023, O’Neill was executive director of biologics operations in the second half of his 12-year career with Merck driving supply strategy for Keytruda. Mallinckrodt’s specialty brands portfolio includes its controversial Acthar Gel (a treatment for flares in a number of chronic and autoimmune indications) and the hepatorenal syndrome med Terlivaz.

David Ford

→ Staying in Ireland, Prothena has enlisted David Ford as its first chief people officer. Ford worked in human resources at Sanofi from 2002-17 and then led the HR team at Intercept, which was sold to Italian pharma Alfasigma in late September. We recently told you that Daniel Welch, the former InterMune CEO who was a board member at Intercept for six years, will succeed Lars Ekman as Prothena’s chairman.

Ben Stephens

→ Co-founded by Sanofi R&D chief Houman Ashrafian and backed by GSK, Eli Lilly partner Sitryx stapled an additional $39 million to its Series A last fall. It has now welcomed a pair of execs: Ben Stephens (COO) had been finance director for ViaNautis Bio and Rinri Therapeutics, and Gordon Dingwall (head of clinical operations) is a Roche and AstraZeneca vet who led development operations at Mission Therapeutics. Dingwall has also served as a clinical operations leader for Shionogi and Freeline Therapeutics.

Steve Alley

MBrace Therapeutics, an antibody-drug conjugate specialist that nabbed $85 million in Series B financing last November, has named Steve Alley as CSO. Alley spent two decades at Seagen before the $43 billion buyout by Pfizer and was the ADC maker’s executive director, translational sciences.

→ California cancer drug developer Apollomics, which has been mired in Nasdaq compliance problems nearly a year after it joined the public markets through a SPAC merger, has recruited Matthew Plunkett as CFO. Plunkett has held the same title at Nkarta as well as Imago BioSciences — leading the companies to $290 million and $155 million IPOs, respectively — and at Aeovian Pharmaceuticals since March 2022.

Heinrich Haas

→ Co-founded by Oxford professor Adrian Hill — the co-inventor of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine — lipid nanoparticle biotech NeoVac has brought in Heinrich Haas as chief technology officer. During his nine years at BioNTech, Haas was VP of RNA formulation and drug delivery.

Kimberly Lee

→ New Jersey-based neuro biotech 4M Therapeutics is making its Peer Review debut by introducing Kimberly Lee as CBO. Lee was hired at Taysha Gene Therapies during its meteoric rise in 2020 and got promoted to chief corporate affairs officer in 2022. Earlier, she led corporate strategy and investor relations efforts for Lexicon Pharmaceuticals.

→ Another Peer Review newcomer, Osmol Therapeutics, has tapped former Exelixis clinical development chief Ron Weitzman as interim CMO. Weitzman only lasted seven months as medical chief of Tango Therapeutics after Marc Rudoltz had a similarly short stay in that position. Osmol is going after chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy and chemotherapy-induced cognitive impairment with its lead asset OSM-0205.

→ Last August, cardiometabolic disease player NeuroBo Pharmaceuticals locked in Hyung Heon Kim as president and CEO. Now, the company is giving Marshall Woodworth the title of CFO and principal financial and accounting officer, after he served in the interim since last October. Before NeuroBo, Woodworth had a string of CFO roles at Nevakar, Braeburn Pharmaceuticals, Aerocrine and Fureix Pharmaceuticals.

Claire Poll

Claire Poll has retired after more than 17 years as Verona Pharma’s general counsel, and the company has appointed Andrew Fisher as her successor. In his own 17-year tenure at United Therapeutics that ended in 2018, Fisher was chief strategy officer and deputy general counsel. The FDA will decide on Verona’s non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis candidate ensifentrine by June 26.

Nancy Lurker

Alkermes won its proxy battle with Sarissa Capital Management and is tinkering with its board nearly nine months later. The newest director, Bristol Myers Squibb alum Nancy Lurker, ran EyePoint Pharmaceuticals from 2016-23 and still has a board seat there. For a brief period, Lurker was chief marketing officer for Novartis’ US subsidiary.

→ Chaired by former Celgene business development chief George Golumbeski, Shattuck Labs has expanded its board to nine members by bringing in ex-Seagen CEO Clay Siegall and Tempus CSO Kate Sasser. Siegall holds the top spots at Immunome and chairs the board at Tourmaline Bio, while Sasser came to Tempus from Genmab in 2022.

Scott Myers

→ Ex-AMAG Pharmaceuticals and Rainier Therapeutics chief Scott Myers has been named chairman of the board at Convergent Therapeutics, a radiopharma player that secured a $90 million Series A last May. Former Magenta exec Steve Mahoney replaced Myers as CEO of Viridian Therapeutics a few months ago.

→ Montreal-based Find Therapeutics has elected Tony Johnson to the board of directors. Johnson is in his first year as CEO of Domain Therapeutics. He is also the former chief executive at Goldfinch Bio, the kidney disease biotech that closed its doors last year.

Habib Dable

→ Former Acceleron chief Habib Dable has replaced Kala Bio CEO Mark Iwicki as chairman of the board at Aerovate Therapeutics, which is signing up patients for Phase IIb and Phase III studies of its lead drug AV-101 for pulmonary arterial hypertension. Dable joined Aerovate’s board in July and works part-time as a venture partner for RA Capital Management.

Julie Cherrington

→ In the burgeoning world of ADCs, Elevation Oncology is developing one of its own that targets Claudin 18.2. Its board is now up to eight members with the additions of Julie Cherrington and Mirati CMO Alan Sandler. Cherrington, a venture partner at Brandon Capital Partners, also chairs the boards at Actym Therapeutics and Tolremo Therapeutics. Sandler took the CMO job at Mirati in November 2022 and will stay in that position after Bristol Myers acquired the Krazati maker.

Patty Allen

Lonnie Moulder’s Zenas BioPharma has welcomed Patty Allen to the board of directors. Allen was a key figure in Vividion’s $2 billion sale to Bayer as the San Diego biotech’s CFO, and she’s a board member at Deciphera Pharmaceuticals, SwanBio Therapeutics and Anokion.

→ In January 2023, Y-mAbs Therapeutics cut 35% of its staff to focus on commercialization of Danyelza. This week, the company has reserved a seat on its board of directors for Nektar Therapeutics CMO Mary Tagliaferri. Tagliaferri also sits on the boards of Enzo Biochem and is a former board member of RayzeBio.

→ The ex-Biogen neurodegeneration leader at the center of Aduhelm’s controversial approval is now on the scientific advisory board at Asceneuron, a Swiss-based company focused on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s. Samantha Budd-Haeberlein tops the list of new SAB members, which also includes Henrik Zetterberg, Rik Ossenkoppele and Christopher van Dyck.

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Is the biotech market rally real? Data suggest comeback in private, public markets

After some halting starts, false dawns and fragile rallies, the biotech market may finally be back.
No, really.
In the last several months, several important…

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After some halting starts, false dawns and fragile rallies, the biotech market may finally be back.

No, really.

In the last several months, several important signals have added up to what feels like a rally, with more depth and certainty than some of the short-lived upticks during the doldrums of 2022 and 2023, when only the industry’s most optimistic souls were willing to call it a comeback.

But now, public biotechs are releasing positive data and raising money in follow-on offerings with ease. Biopharmas have already raised $13.7 billion in secondary raises in 2024, according to Stifel’s Tim Opler. Biotech’s benchmark index, the $XBI, is up 56% from last year’s lows and has broken the $100 mark, thanks to gains that go deep into the 120-company index. And in the private markets, crossover rounds are trickling back, and IPOs are showing signs of life.

Investors and executives told Endpoints News that this moment feels different, encouraged by a return to the basics, a focus on data, and signs of a healthier — if smaller — biotech ecosystem.

Chris Garabedian

“We should be beyond any of the lows,” said Chris Garabedian, a venture portfolio manager at Perceptive Advisors and founder of the firm’s early-stage investing unit Xontogeny. “We are going to see continued forward momentum.”

Investor sentiment is “very different from what it was in ‘22 to ‘23, where it was all doom and gloom,” MoonLake Immunotherapeutics CEO Jorge Santos da Silva said. A year ago, “The question was like, ‘What are the 22 ways in which you can die?’ That has really changed.”

The XBI cracking $100 is encouraging, but a deeper look at the index shows more signs of strength. The exchange-traded fund, which lets investors buy shares of its basket of 120 biotech companies, has seen $457 million in net inflows over the past month, according to YCharts data. And about 80% of biotechs on the index — which includes giants like Vertex $VRTX and small companies like Avidity Biosciences $RNA — have seen their stock in the green over the past three months.

Some of that gain is clearly driven by a surge in M&A, including the buyouts of Seagen, Horizon, Cerevel, and Karuna, all of which have returned billions of dollars back to investors who need to put it back to work in the private or public markets. And industry insiders have said there’s also a breadth in the disease areas drawing interest, including obesity, cancer, cardiology, neurology, and inflammation.

Even ARCH Venture Partners managing director Bob Nelsen voiced some broader — albeit measured — optimism for the market.

“For our internal base case, we’re still assuming that things are going to suck like they have in the last couple of years,” Nelsen told Endpoints. “But we all believe that it has turned.”

Nelsen still implores his portfolio companies and limited partners to “assume it’s going to be worse than you think.” But his optimism is driven by two major trends: the easing of macro factors like interest rates and the persistence of M&A. He’s closely watching whether generalist investors — whose huge dollars can swing a sector up or down, as they did dramatically during the pandemic — will come back to biotech.

“The conventional wisdom in Q4 is, they were never coming back in the market,” he said. “Turns out, in Q4 they were buying.”

From atonement to ‘FOMO’

Jorge Santos da Silva

Da Silva said the industry had been “paying for our sins” committed in the boom years of 2019 to 2021, when hundreds of biotechs went public — many far from going into the clinic. Along with layoffs and company closures, it resulted in an infestation of the corporate walking dead in companies trading at values below the amount of cash on their books.

But the number of those companies with negative equity value has dropped in the past few months, suggesting that a much-needed cleanup from the go-go years is well in progress.

“I call it a detox,” da Silva said. “Whatever we did was clearly excessive and everyone knew it at the time. But when you’re at a party, it’s like, ‘Oh my God, this is crazy, but let’s keep going.’ The detox phase is definitely coming to an end.”

Otello Stampacchia

Otello Stampacchia, the managing director of the Boston-based VC firm Omega Funds, said the mood is even “getting a little bit bubblicious” for biotechs with clinical-stage drug candidates in large markets with meaningful milestones in the next 12 to 18 months.

“There’s really a rush to get into those, particularly now that the indices have started flipping their dynamic,” said Stampacchia, who founded Omega two decades ago. “Up until early last fall, nobody wanted to catch the falling knife. It’s now the exact opposite dynamic, and there’s a bit of crowding in some of these names.”

“There’s real FOMO to invest in the right therapeutic products and the right therapeutic companies,” he added.

That’s carried through the private and public markets, Stampacchia said, noting that Omega participated in Alumis’ recent $259 million Series C raise — biotech’s biggest round this year. He said he was “incredibly surprised by the amount of demand there was for the deal.” All told, Omega has seen roughly half a dozen of its portfolio companies raise close to half a billion dollars over the last few months, with increased valuations.

“In each case, it really wasn’t difficult to syndicate,” he said. “There’s real demand.”

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International

Deflationary pressures in China – be careful what you wish for

Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures….

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Until recently, China’s decelerating inflation was welcomed by the West, as it led to lower imported prices and helped reduce inflationary pressures. However, China’s consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month in December 2023, delaying the expected rebound in economic activity following the lifting of COVID-19 controls. For calendar year 2023, CPI growth was negligible, whilst the producer price index declined by 3.0 per cent.

China’s inflation dynamics

China’s inflation dynamics

Chinese consumers are hindered by the weaker residential property market and high youth unemployment. Several property developers have defaulted, collectively wiping out nearly all the U.S.$155 billion worth of U.S. dollar denominated-bonds. 

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite Index is at half of its record high, recorded in late 2007. The share prices of major developers, including Evergrande Group, Country Garden Holdings, Sunac China and Shimao Group, have declined by an average of 98 per cent over recent years. Some economists are pointing to the Japanese experience of a debt-deflation cycle in the 1990s, with economic stagnation and elevated debt levels.

Australia has certainly enjoyed the “pull-up effect” from China, particularly with the iron-ore price jumping from around U.S.$20/tonne in 2000 to an average closer to U.S.$120/tonne over the 17 years from 2007. With strong volume increases, the value of Australia’s iron ore exports has jumped 20-fold to around A$12 billion per month, accounting for approximately 35 per cent of Australia’s exports. 

For context, China takes 85 per cent of Australia’s iron ore exports, whilst Australia accounts for 65 per cent of China’s iron ore imports. China’s steel industry depends on its own domestic iron ore mines for 20 per cent of its requirement, however, these are high-cost operations and need high iron ore prices to keep them in business. To reduce its dependence on Australia’s iron ore, China has increased its use of scrap metal and invested large sums of money in Africa, including the Simandou mine in Guinea, which is forecast to export 60 million tonnes of iron ore from 2028.

The Chinese housing market has historically been the source of 40 per cent of China’s steel usage. However, the recent high iron ore prices are attributable to the growth in China’s industrial and infrastructure activity, which has offset the weakness in residential construction.

Whilst this has continued to deliver supernormal profits for Australia’s major iron ore producers (and has greatly assisted the federal budget), watch out for any sustainable downturn in the iron ore price, particularly if the deflationary pressures in China continue into the medium term.

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