Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Sept. 22, 2020: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies myocarditis as an adverse event of special interest, or a potential side effect.
Oct. 30, 2020: U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) identifies myocarditis as an adverse event of special interest.
December 2020: One case of pericarditis reported to the U.S. Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which is co-managed by the CDC and FDA.
Dec. 11, 2020: FDA authorizes the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for Americans 16 and older.
Dec. 13, 2020: CDC launches V-safe, a new vaccine safety monitoring system, without including myocarditis as an option in the adverse events list.
Dec. 18, 2020: FDA authorizes the U.S. government-backed Moderna vaccine for Americans 18 and older.
2021: Myocarditis cases spike in the U.S. military.
January 2021: 28 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.
January 2021: First U.S. military member experiences postvaccination myocarditis, according to a study published months later.
January 2021: First cases of postvaccination myocarditis recorded in Israel.
January 2021: VAERS report processing is delayed due to unexpected spike in reports.
February 2021: 64 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including two deaths.
Feb. 1, 2021: Israeli teenager is hospitalized with myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination, doctors say.
Feb. 18, 2021: Safety signal for myocarditis triggered in VAERS using CDC-endorsed method called Proportional Reporting Ratio.
Feb. 19, 2021: Safety signal for myocarditis triggered in VAERS using another method called Fisher’s Exact Test.
Feb. 24–25, 2021: CDC meets with its advisers but does not discuss COVID-19 vaccines.
Feb. 27, 2021: FDA authorizes Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine.
Feb. 28, 2021: Israeli officials privately alert CDC to "a large number of reports of myocarditis, particularly in young people, following the administration of the Pfizer vaccine."
Feb. 28, 2021: 57 cases of myocarditis or pericarditis within seven days of vaccination in Pfizer's database in document given to the FDA in April 2021 and not revealed to the public until November 2021.
March 2021: 54 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.
March 1, 2021: CDC officials disclose (pdf) that two postvaccination cases were identified in the Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD), another CDC-run system.
March 2, 2021: CDC recommends Johnson & Johnson's COVID-19 vaccine for adults.
March 3, 2021: Israeli authorities meet with hospital officials to discuss postvaccination heart problems.
March 4, 2021: Israeli officials confirm they're investigating postvaccination pericarditis.
March 5, 2021: FDA holds meeting with its advisers. Myocarditis is not discussed.
March 6, 2021: Rutgers University becomes first major US school to announce COVID-19 vaccine mandate.
March 8, 2021: Australian health officials contact CDC about U.S. myocarditis cases.
March 9, 2021: U.S. internal memorandum says Israel received around 40 reports of postvaccination myocarditis. U.S. officials say some postvaccination cases were reported in the United States and acknowledge issues with passive surveillance such as underreporting. "Thus, FDA has not made a final determination regarding the causality between myopericarditis and the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines," the memo stated.
March 20, 2021: First postvaccination myocarditis case report is published in the literature.
March 20, 2021: Pfizer contract with South Africa (pdf) says that "there may be adverse effects of the vaccine that are not currently known."
March 31, 2021: Second postvaccination myocarditis case report published.
March 31, 2021: First death from postvaccination myocarditis reported in Israel. The deceased was a 22-year-old previously healthy woman.
April 2021: 158 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS.
April 2021: CDC holds multiple public meetings with no discussion of myocarditis.
April 1, 2021: Israel has received 84 reports of postvaccination myocarditis or pericarditis, news outlet reports.
April 2, 2021: U.S. military officials, CDC meet on postvaccination myocarditis cases.
April 5, 2021: Israeli officials brief the CDC on postvaccination myocarditis cases.
April 5, 2021: Canada reports first case of postvaccination pericarditis.
April 7, 2021: U.S. government call covers myocarditis cases recorded in military members after vaccination.
April 10, 2021: CDC-funded Clinical Immunization Safety Assessment program reviewed postvaccination myocarditis cases, email shows.
April 12, 2021: U.S. military officials brief CDC on postvaccination myocarditis cases.
April 12, 2021: Canada reports first case of postvaccination myocarditis.
April 13, 2021: U.S. military has submitted manuscripts on myocarditis cases to two journals, CDC official says.
April 13, 2021: CDC, FDA advise pause in administration of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine due to six cases of blood clotting.
April 15, 2021: Two otherwise healthy adults hospitalized with chest pain and diagnosed with myocarditis after Moderna vaccination, CDC adviser tells agency.
April 17, 2021: CDC official tells adviser there have been reports of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination "but we aren't observing any clear indication of a safety signal."
April 20, 2021: Three cases of myocarditis after second Pfizer dose in Idaho, official tells CDC.
April 23, 2021: United States lifts recommended pause on Johnson & Johnson's vaccine.
April 23, 2021: Israeli Ministry of Health report on postvaccination myocarditis identifies two deaths, Israeli media report. The second deceased was a previously healthy 35-year-old man. Among men aged 18 to 30, there is a one in 20,000 probability of developing myocarditis, the report found. "It seems that these events can be a signal of a possible connection to the vaccine," the committee said. The findings were sent to the FDA.
April 26, 2021: U.S. military officials are tracking 14 cases of myocarditis following messenger RNA vaccination, Military.com reports.
April 26, 2021: CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky says CDC "aware of" cases in the military. She says "we have not seen any reports of those" and that "we have not seen a signal" in CDC databases.
April 27, 2021: CDC officials privately acknowledge that processing of VAERS reports is "taking longer than usual."
April 27, 2021: CDC officials say 24 cases of myocarditis were identified in VSD.
April 27, 2021: U.S. military official warns that pausing administration of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines "will have an adverse impact on US/CA vaccination rates."
April 28, 2021: France detects safety signal for postvaccination myocarditis.
April 28, 2021: CDC director receives notes from discussion with military on myocarditis cases.
April 29, 2021: First cases of pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination reported in the literature.
April 30, 2021: FDA receives Pfizer report noting myocarditis cases in Pfizer's database.
May 2021: 487 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including four deaths.
May 2021: CDC forms a team to review medical records for reported cases of postvaccination myocarditis.
May 5, 2021: CDC meets with advisers but doesn't discuss COVID-19 vaccines.
May 7, 2021: European Medicines Agency announces it has asked Pfizer for information on myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination.
May 10, 2021: FDA authorizes Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 12 to 15. It does not mention myocarditis.
May 12, 2021: Myocarditis is not discussed during meeting on Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine. Dr. Tom Shimabukuro, a CDC official, gives a presentation on blood clotting after Johnson & Johnson vaccination.
May 12, 2021: Dr. Walensky recommends Pfizer's vaccine for virtually all children aged 12 to 15, based on advice from advisers.
May 13, 2021: CDC officials told to direct questions on potential myocarditis cases to two top vaccine safety officials, Drs. John Su and Shimabukuro.
May 13, 2021: Same officials discuss analyzing VAERS data for myocarditis using the Proportional Reporting Ratio in heavily redacted emails. The agency says the analysis didn't actually start until 2022.
May 13, 2021: CDC adviser says "multiple people texting and email[ing] me with concerns" about myocarditis.
May 13, 2021: Children's National in Washington registers two suspected cases.
May 14, 2021: Dr. Shimabukuro seeks "experts in myocarditis."
May 16, 2021: CDC official says in email, "we are hearing quite a lot about this now, and I don't have a clear understanding of what is and has been being done."
May 17, 2021: CDC workgroup says there are "relatively few" reports of myocarditis after vaccination and that rates "have not differed from expected baseline rates."
May 17, 2021: Dr. Shimabukuro speaks with American Academy of Pediatrics officials to "centralize our coordination" with outside groups.
May 17, 2021: Dr. Su says health care providers "aren't reporting these cases to VAERS."
May 17, 2021: Dr. Su says the "myocarditis thing" is "exploding."
May 18, 2021: States across the U.S. publicly report cases of myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.
May 18, 2021: First case report of an American person with postvaccination myocarditis published.
May 19, 2021: CDC tells state officials it has been "closely monitoring" myocarditis and pericarditis after COVID-19 vaccination and that cases "can be serious."
May 20, 2021: Three more cases of postvaccination myocarditis at Connecticut Children's Medical Center, official tells CDC.
May 23, 2021: The American Heart Association says the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination for everyone eligible "enormously outweigh the rare, possible risk of heart-related complications, including inflammation of the heart muscle."
May 24, 2021: CDC workgroup acknowledges for the first time that the number of reports of postvaccination myocarditis to VAERS was higher than expected in those 16 to 24.
May 24, 2021: French Society of Cardiology calls for vaccinating heart failure patients without acknowledging possible vaccine-myocarditis connection.
May 24, 2021: Massachusetts official asks CDC for "messaging" on postvaccination myocarditis.
May 25, 2021: Dr. Paul Offit, an FDA adviser, says about myocarditis and COVID-19 vaccines, "there’s every reason to think this isn’t a problem."
May 26, 2021: The New Zealand Medicines and Medical Devices Safety Authority says there's a safety signal for myocarditis and COVID-19 vaccines.
May 28, 2021: CDC says to keep vaccinating everyone eligible, or virtually all Americans 12 and older.
May 28, 2021: Case series of young, previously healthy males hospitalized with postvaccination myocarditis discloses hospitalizations happened as early as Jan. 30, 2021.
May 28, 2021: CDC says it is focusing on reported cases among those 30 and under.
May 28, 2021: Nine postvaccination myocarditis cases from one state not reported to VAERS, according to CDC.
May 30, 2021: Brighton Collaboration issues case definition for myocarditis.
June 2021: 752 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.
June 2021: Some experts start calling on U.S. authorities to pause COVID-19 vaccination of young, healthy people.
June 2, 2021: Israel says "there is some probability for a possible link between the second vaccine dose and the onset of myocarditis among young men aged 16 to 30" after researchers find incidence of one in 3,000 to one in 6,000 men aged 16 to 24.
June 4, 2021: U.S. researchers report seven cases in healthy young males following Pfizer vaccination.
June 10, 2021: 99 cases of myocarditis/pericarditis detected in FDA's Biologics Effectiveness and Safety Initiative database, and 1,260 cases reported in Medicare claims data, FDA official says (pdf).
June 10, 2021: CDC working to rapidly follow up on reports of myocarditis following vaccination among people aged 30 and under, CDC official says (pdf). Most cases are in young adults after a second dose.
June 10, 2021: "There’s a lack of alternative explanations" apart from vaccination given the consistency across postvaccination cases, Dr. Cody Meissner, an FDA adviser, says.
June 10, 2021: "I think the myocarditis is something that needs to be looked at closely because we’re likely seeing the tip of the iceberg," says Dr. Michael Kurilla of the U.S. National Institutes of Health, another FDA adviser. June 10, 2021: Pfizer spokesperson tells news outlets that "the benefit-risk profile of our vaccine remains positive."
June 11, 2021: European Medicines Agency announces investigation into reports of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination.
June 23, 2021: CDC’s safety committee says evidence now suggests a "likely association" of mRNA vaccination and myocarditis.
June 23, 2021: Number of myocarditis cases recorded in VSD rise to 75. Based on VAERS reports, CDC says number of events higher than expected after dose two in males aged 12 to 49 and females aged 12 to 29. Among children 12 to 17, 188 cases were reported within 21 days of vaccination through June 11. CDC advisers say data suggest vaccines cause myocarditis.
June 23, 2021: CDC estimates (pdf) Pfizer's vaccine will cause up to 69 myocarditis cases per million second doses but will prevent 215 hospitalizations and two deaths in males aged 12 to 17.
June 25, 2021: FDA adds warnings about "the suggested increased risks" of myocarditis and pericarditis to labels for the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.
June 28, 2021: The U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs says privately it detected more myocarditis cases than expected.
June 29, 2021: Military researchers report 22 previously healthy members suffered myocarditis after receiving a messenger RNA vaccine. "The presentation pattern and clinical course suggest an association with an inflammatory response to vaccination," they say. The cases are among hundreds reported in the literature this month.
June 29, 2021: CDC officials say of reported cases that "the striking clinical similarities in the presentations of these patients, their recent vaccination with an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, and the lack of any alternative etiologies for acute myocarditis suggest an association with immunization."
June 30, 2021: Canada adds myocarditis and pericarditis risk information to labels of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.
July 2021: 364 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including seven deaths.
July 3, 2021: 13 young males with postvaccination myocarditis treated at a single hospital in Washington state between April 1, 2021, and June 21, 2021, researchers report.
July 6, 2021: CDC estimates for every million doses of vaccination, dozens of cases of myocarditis can be expected, including 56 to 69 cases among 12- to 17-year-olds. The expected benefits outweigh the risks, though, according to the agency.
July 9, 2021: European Medicines Agency recommends listing myocarditis and pericarditis as side effects for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines after identifying 221 cases after mRNA vaccination. Five of the patients died.
July 10, 2021: South Korean researchers report a 22-year-old man was killed by vaccine-induced myocarditis, the first such death reported in the literature.
July 22, 2021: CDC says it confirmed 282 postvaccination myocarditis cases in people aged 18 to 29.
July 28, 2021: Pfizer tells FDA of "important identified risk" of myocarditis and pericarditis after vaccination and discloses 17 deaths among the cases reported.
July 30, 2021: Data mining does not show a signal for myocarditis among adolescents 12 to 17, CDC and FDA say.
July 31, 2021: Australian experts recommend people be informed about possibility of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination.
August 2021: 311 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including seven deaths.
Aug. 4, 2021: UK delays recommending second dose for 16- and 17-year-olds.
Aug. 10, 2021: 15 children hospitalized at Boston Children's Hospital with postvaccination myocarditis between May 1 and July 15, 2021, researchers say.
Aug. 13, 2021: Canada identifies a safety signal for postvaccination myocarditis.
Aug. 17, 2021: Death of 27-year-old man following myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination reported by U.S. researchers. Family declined an autopsy. No non-vaccination causes identified.
Aug. 18, 2021: U.S. researchers report death of 42-year-old man with myocarditis following Moderna vaccination. No other causes identified.
Aug. 18, 2021: Dr. Walensky and other U.S. government officials call for COVID-19 vaccine boosters to be cleared due to waning effectiveness.
Aug. 19, 2021: Two deaths from myocarditis following Pfizer vaccination, Pfizer reports to the EMA.
Aug. 19, 2021: Dr. Walensky notified of UK preference for Pfizer over Moderna for adolescents.
Aug. 23, 2021: FDA approves Pfizer's vaccine for people 16 and older. Approval theoretically has a higher bar than authorization. The agency says that analyses of reported events "will not be sufficient to assess known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis."
Aug. 24, 2021: South Korean authorities determine a young man died from myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination.
Aug. 30, 2021: One myocarditis case and one pericarditis case occurred among vaccinated trial participants, Pfizer reveals.
Aug. 30, 2021: Of 742 reports in VAERS that met the CDC case definition of myocarditis or myopericarditis after vaccination, 701 patients required hospitalization and 18 are still hospitalized, CDC official reports (pdf). Twenty-three percent of patients whose cases were detailed in VAERS reports were not known to have recovered at the time of the report.
Aug. 30, 2021: Highest rate of reported myopericarditis cases within seven days of a shot was 71.5 cases per million second Pfizer doses among boys aged 16 or 17, according to the CDC.
Aug. 30, 2021: Myocarditis and pericarditis cases in VSD rise to 115, with some patients still experiencing symptoms, CDC official says (pdf).
Aug. 30, 2021: Benefits of Pfizer's vaccine continue to outweigh the risks, CDC officials say. They estimate every million Pfizer shots among 16- to 17-year-olds will cause 73 cases of myocarditis but prevent more hospitalizations.
Aug. 30, 2021: Woman who died in New Zealand after Pfizer vaccination perished from myocarditis, an independent safety panel said.
September 2021: 377 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including 10 deaths.
Sept. 2, 2021: 654 reports of myocarditis or pericarditis in Pfizer's safety database, company says. Seventy-seven reports of myocarditis or myocarditis and pericarditis in Moderna's safety database, company says. Some patients, including a young male, died or had not recovered.
Sept. 2, 2021: Based on the reports and other data, a causal association between myocarditis/pericarditis and the mRNA vaccines is "considered of at least a reasonable possibility," the European Medicines Agency says.
Sept. 3, 2021: 67 myocarditis/pericarditis cases recorded in VSD among people aged 12 to 39, CDC says.
Sept. 8, 2021: Healthy, young boys face a higher risk of cardiac events from vaccines than from COVID-19, U.S. researchers find.
Sept. 9, 2021: U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration announce COVID-19 vaccine mandates for tens of millions of Americans, including many young, healthy people.
Sept. 15, 2021: Hong Kong changes recommendation from two doses of Pfizer to one dose after spike in myocarditis cases.
Sept. 17, 2021: Excess myocarditis risk for vaccinated males aged 16 or 17 "approaching 200 cases per million," FDA discloses, based on data from Optum health care claims database.
Sept. 21, 2021: "A clear signal for vaccine associated myocarditis has emerged," U.S. doctors say.
Sept. 22, 2021: One case of myocarditis reported after Pfizer booster, CDC official says. Not possible to determine the risk of rare side effects like myocarditis after boosting, CDC safety committee says.
Sept. 22, 2021: V-safe does not collect information on myocarditis, CDC official admits.
Sept. 22, 2021: FDA authorizes a Pfizer booster for millions of Americans.
Sept. 23, 2021: CDC officials say they don't know how many cases of myocarditis booster shots will cause. They project up to 26 cases per million boosters in 18- to 29-year-olds, but say more COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations would be prevented.
Sept. 24, 2021: CDC recommends Pfizer's booster for certain populations.
Sept. 27, 2021: New Zealand expert tells CDC it "seems to make huge sense to me" to delay second doses for young people.
Sept. 28, 2021: Pfizer vaccine may have "played a role" in death of 15-year-old California boy who died after receiving shot, medical examiner tells CDC.
Sept. 29, 2021: CDC meets on non-COVID vaccines.
Sept. 30, 2021: CDC falsely tells California officials that reports of postvaccination myocarditis did not come until June 2021.
October 2021: 321 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.
Oct. 4, 2021: Identification of postvaccination myocarditis cases "does not change clinical decision-making," JAMA Internal Medicine editors say.
Oct. 7, 2021: Norway, Finland, and Sweden suspend use of Moderna's vaccine for younger people due to myocarditis risks.
Oct. 8, 2021: Iceland suspends use of Moderna's vaccine due to the heart inflammation.
Oct. 11, 2021: CDC director briefed on how Nordic countries are limiting vaccination due to myocarditis.
Oct. 12, 2021: Secret U.S. government meeting considering counting post-infection immunity as one or more vaccine doses ends with no update.
Oct. 14, 2021: FDA says more myocarditis/pericarditis cases have been reported to its Biologics Effectiveness and Safety Initiative system.
Oct. 21, 2021: The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs has identified 7 post-vaccination myocarditis cases, CDC publicly discloses, but no signal was established and all cases resolved.
Oct. 21, 2021: Highest rate of myocarditis following vaccination, based on VAERS data, is 69.1 cases per million second shots among males aged 16 or 17, Dr. Su says (pdf).
Oct. 21, 2021: About a quarter of cases in people 29 or younger reviewed in VAERS were not known to have recovered, according to available data, with 19 still hospitalized.
Oct. 21, 2021: Analyses of VSD data "indicate that both Pfizer and Moderna are associated with increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis in 12–39-year-olds," Kaiser Permanente doctor says (pdf). Myocarditis/pericarditis cases in VSD rise to 138, with rates higher after Moderna vaccination compared to Pfizer vaccination.
Oct. 21, 2021: CDC says tens of millions of Americans should get a Pfizer or Moderna booster.
Oct. 22, 2021: Rates of reported cases among males aged 18 to 24 approximately 139 per million after Moderna second dose and 43 per million after Pfizer second dose, French researchers say.
Oct. 22, 2021: Norway says adolescents can't get second doses of Pfizer's vaccine.
Oct. 26, 2021: FDA says benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks. Projection of harm is highest for 16- and 17-year-old males, at 196 postvaccination myocarditis/pericarditis cases, and 171 myocarditis/pericarditis hospitalizations per million doses.
Oct. 26, 2021: CDC cardiologist Dr. Matthew Oster says "we don't know a whole lot" about myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination. "We really need to see what the long-term outcomes for these kids will be," he added later.
Oct. 26, 2021: Dr. Michael Nelson, an FDA vaccine adviser, says he's concerned that some cases of postvaccination myocarditis aren't being reported.
Oct. 26, 2021: Dr. Eric Rubin, another FDA adviser, says "we’re never going to learn about how safe this vaccine is unless we start giving it."
Oct. 27, 2021: World Health Organization says the mRNA vaccines likely cause myocarditis.
Oct. 27, 2021: Prevalence of postvaccination myocarditis may be underestimated due to its reliance on symptoms for diagnosis, researchers say.
Oct. 28, 2021: Dr. Su says myocarditis reported after COVID-19 vaccination "has been neither severe nor persistent ... however, we'll need to wait to see if longer-term complications arise." He also says CDC does not know what percent of cases became chronic.
Oct. 29, 2021: FDA authorizes Pfizer's vaccine for children aged 5 to 11 despite dearth of efficacy data.
Oct. 30, 2021: Seventeen myocarditis patients seen at a single facility in Switzerland between March and July 2021, researchers report (pdf).
November 2021: 267 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including six deaths.
Nov. 1, 2021: Dr. Su says in email that "we're all doing our part to build confidence" in COVID-19 vaccines.
Nov. 1, 2021: English researchers estimate vaccinating children aged 12 to 17 will prevent 230 to 4,590 COVID-19 hospitalizations while causing 160 cases of myocarditis requiring hospitalization.
Nov. 1, 2021: Seven patients still had symptoms about a month after being diagnosed with myocarditis, U.S. researchers report.
Nov. 2, 2021: Nine deaths with myocarditis reported among people 29 and younger in VAERS. Most deaths had at least one potential non-vaccination cause while evaluation of two was still ongoing, CDC official says (pdf).
Nov. 2, 2021: Of postvaccination myocarditis patients who received cardiac MRIs, 72 percent had abnormal results, official says. Of patients who responded to CDC survey, 48 percent reported symptoms persisting after three months.
Nov. 2, 2021: Rates of myocarditis after Pfizer vaccination in children aged 5 to 11, if cleared, is unknown, CDC says (pdf). Rates in those 12 to 15 are as high as 108.5 per million second doses among males.
Nov. 2, 2021: CDC recommends virtually all children aged 5 to 11 receive a Pfizer series.
Nov. 3, 2021: 18-year-old previously healthy woman dies after COVID-19 vaccination with fulminate myocarditis, Washington state officials tell CDC. They attribute the myocarditis to asymptomatic COVID-19. Family declined an autopsy at one facility and King County Medical Examiner's Office says it did not perform an autopsy due to "social and complex" reasons.
Nov. 8, 2021: France halts Moderna's vaccine for people under 30.
Nov. 16, 2021: UK recommends second dose for 16- and 17-year-olds.
Nov. 18, 2021: Reported cases of myocarditis as high as 117 per million after doses of Moderna, and 47 per million doses of Pfizer, among males aged 18 to 29, German researchers say.
Nov. 19, 2021: Lower rates of myocarditis reported to VAERS after booster doses, CDC official says (pdf). Fifty-four reports were lodged, with some people not known to have recovered.
Nov. 19, 2021: CDC enables all adults to receive a booster of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.
Nov. 23, 2021: Between Dec. 27, 2020 and Sept. 3, 2021, 113 patients with suspected myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination presented to a single practice, German researchers report.
Nov. 26, 2021: Six people were reported to have died with myocarditis or pericarditis after Pfizer vaccination, the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Centre Lareb reports. Other causes were found for two of the deaths.
Nov. 28, 2021: Hong Kong researchers find rate of 212 myocarditis cases among 12- to 17-year-old males per million Pfizer second doses.
Nov. 28, 2021: Three verified cases of post-booster myocarditis, CDC discloses in private emails.
Nov. 29, 2021: UK recommends second dose for 12 to 15-year-olds.
December 2021: 304 cases of myocarditis, pericarditis, or myopericarditis reported to VAERS, including five deaths.
Dec. 1, 2021: 22-year-old woman spent 74 days in hospital with myocarditis after AstraZeneca vaccination, South Korean researchers report.
Dec. 2, 2021: European Medicines Agency says safety signal confirmed for postvaccination myocarditis.
Dec. 2, 2021: Israeli researchers estimate 106.9 myocarditis cases per million vaccinated males aged 16 to 29.
Dec. 9, 2021: FDA authorizes booster doses for 16- and 17-year-olds.
Dec. 9, 2021: CDC says 16- and 17-year-olds should get a booster shot. It does not mention myocarditis.
Dec. 14, 2021: 114 vaccinated people had myocarditis listed as a cause of death on their death certificate, English researchers report.
Dec. 16, 2021: Eight cases of myocarditis among children aged 5 to 11 confirmed, including one in a 6-year-old male, CDC official says.
Dec. 18, 2021: 26-year-old New Zealand man's death ruled as being caused by vaccine-induced myocarditis following an autopsy.
Dec. 25, 2021: Males under 40 face an excess risk of 101 cases per million second doses, UK researchers find.
Dec. 27, 2021: Incidence of myocarditis among males 12 to 39 is 195.4 per million second doses among males aged 12 to 39, U.S. researchers estimate. They identify cases missed by the CDC.Dec. 28, 2021: Risk of myocarditis much higher from Moderna's vaccine compared with Pfizer's shot, Canadian officials report.
Dec. 30, 2021: 21 patients with myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination admitted to a single center between Dec. 15, 2020, and June 15, 2021, U.S. researchers report.
Key Events This Busy Week: Retail Sales, Housing, Earnings And Torrent Of Fed Speakers Including Powell
Key Events This Busy Week: Retail Sales, Housing, Earnings And Torrent Of Fed Speakers Including Powell
With earnings season now having started…
With earnings season now having started in earnest, and with traders closely following every development in the middle east, it looks like it will be a busy week but without an obvious focal point. There is a barrage of Fed speak before their media black-out at the weekend but Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of New York on Thursday will be the highlight. DB's Jim Reid details who is speaking in the end of the day-by-day calendar below, but DB’s Brett Ryan’s week ahead gives a bit more detail of their various biases here (available to pro subs).
The key data point will likely be US retail sales (tomorrow) which we expect to decline (-0.1%) after two strong months, but we also have a lot of US housing data with the NAHB (tomorrow), starts/permits (Wednesday) and existing home sales (Thursday). US weekly jobless claims (Thursday) corresponds to payrolls survey week so will be used to fine tune estimates.
Staying with the US, earnings season will start to get into gear with the highlights being Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Johnson and Johnson (tomorrow), Morgan Stanley, Tesla, Netflix, ASML, and Procter & Gamble (Wednesday), TSMC (Thursday) and American Express (Friday). Tesla and Netflix probably have the most ability to move macro markets given their size.
China sees its monthly activity dump on Wednesday where signs of a turnaround will be scrutinized. This is the same day as UK inflation comes out (preview here). The UK labour market data tomorrow is interesting as unemployment is now 0.8pp above the lows at 4.3% and has increased more than anywhere else in the DM world. UK retail sales is out on Friday.
In Europe we have the ZEW survey in Germany (tomorrow) and the PPI report on Friday, with retail sales for France also due that day. With regards to German PPI it's expected to hit -14.2% YoY from -12.6% the previous month so crazy numbers historically after peaking at an even more crazy +45.8% YoY just over a year ago.
In Japan the national CPI on Friday will be the last before the October 31st BoJ meeting where YCC is likely in our opinion to be abandoned. So an important print.
* * *
Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day preview of the week ahead
Monday October 16
- Data: US October Empire manufacturing index, Japan August capacity utilization, Italy August general government debt, Eurozone August trade balance, Canada August manufacturing sales
- Central banks: Fed's Harker speaks, ECB's Villeroy speaks, BoE's Pill and Woods speak, BoC business outlook, China 1-yr MLF rate
Tuesday October 17
- Data: US October New York Fed services business activity, NAHB housing market index, September retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, August total net TIC flows, business inventories, UK September jobless claims change, August average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, Japan August Tertiary industry index, Germany October Zew survey, Canada September CPI, housing starts, August international securities transactions
- Central banks: Fed's Williams, Bowman and Barkin speak, ECB's Guindos, Holzmann, Centeno and Knot speak, BoE's Dhingra speaks
- Earnings: Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Lockheed Martin, Goldman Sachs, Prologis, Albertsons, United Airlines Holdings
Wednesday October 18
- Data: US September housing starts, building permits, China Q3 GDP, September industrial production, retail sales, property investment, UK September CPI, RPI, PPI, August house price index, Italy August trade balance, Eurozone August construction output
- Central banks: Fed's Beige Book, Waller, Williams, Bowman, Cook and Harker speak
- Earnings: Tesla, Procter & Gamble, ASML, Netflix, Abbott Laboratories, SAP, Morgan Stanley, Lam Research, Volvo, Deutsche Boerse, Alcoa
Thursday October 19
- Data: US October Philadelphia Fed business outlook, September leading index, existing home sales, initial jobless claims, China September new home prices, Japan September trade balance, Italy August current account balance, France October manufacturing and business confidence, ECB August current account, Canada September raw materials and industrial product price index
- Central banks: Fed's Powell, Jefferson, Goolsbee, Barr, Bostic and Harker speak
- Earnings: TSMC, Philip Morris, Blackstone, Union Pacific, AT&T, Intuitive Surgical, CSX, Freeport-McMoRan, Truist Financial, Nokia, American Airlines
Friday October 20
- Data: China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, UK October GfK consumer confidence, September retail sales, public finances, Japan September national CPI, Germany September PPI, France September retail sales, EU27 September new car registrations, Canada August retail sales
- Central banks: Fed's Logan, Mester and Harker speak
- Earnings: American Express, Schlumberger
* * *
Finally, looking at just the US, here is Goldman's preview noting that the key economic data releases this week are the retail sales report on Tuesday, and the jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reports on Thursday. The Beige Book for the November FOMC meeting period will be released on Wednesday. There are many speaking engagements by Fed officials this week including Chair Powell, Vice Chair Jefferson, Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, Governors Bowman, Waller, and Cook, and Presidents Harker, Williams, Barkin, Goolsbee, Bostic, Logan, and Mester.
Monday, October 16
- 10:30 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association's Annual Convention and Expo in Philadelphia. Speech text is expected. On October 13, Harker said “absent a stark turn in what I see in the data and hear from contacts, both in one-on-one conversations and in forums like this, I believe that we are at the point where we can hold rates where they are.”
- 04:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at a virtual event hosted by the National Association of Corporate Directors. Speech text and a Q&A are expected.
Tuesday, October 17
- 08:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion with Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger at the Economic Club of New York.
- 08:30 AM Retail sales, September (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Core retail sales, September (GS +0.1%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.1%): We estimate core retail sales edged up 0.1% in September (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; mom sa). Our forecast reflects a late-month pickup in spending following sequential weakness in the first half of the month. We also estimate a 0.6% rise in headline retail sales, reflecting increases in auto, gasoline, and restaurant sales.
- 09:15 AM Industrial production, September (GS +0.2%, consensus flat, last +0.4%); Manufacturing production, September (GS +0.2%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.1%); Capacity utilization, September (GS 79.7%, consensus 79.6%, last 79.7%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.2%, as strong motor vehicle and oil and gas production outweigh weak mining production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 79.7%.
- 09:20 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak about responsible innovation in money and payments at the Harvard Law School Program on International Financial Systems Roundtable on Central Bank Digital Currency. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On October 11, Governor Bowman said “inflation remains well above the FOMC’s 2 percent target. Domestic spending has continues at a strong pace, and the labor market remains tight. This suggests that the policy rate may need to rise further and stay restrictive for some time to return inflation to the FOMC’s goal.”
- 10:45 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on the economic outlook to the Real Estate Roundtable in Washington. An audience Q&A is expected.
Wednesday, October 18
- 08:30 AM Housing starts, September (GS +11.0%, consensus +7.6%, last -11.3%); Building permits, September (consensus -5.9%, last +6.8%)
- 12:00 PM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak about the economic outlook at the European Economics and Financial Centre's Distinguished Speaker Seminar. Speech text and both audience and moderator Q&A are expected.
- 12:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion at Queens College. A moderated Q&A is expected.
- 01:00 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver welcoming remarks at a Fed Listens event at the Richmond Fed. Speech text is expected.
- 01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver opening remarks and speak at a Fed Listens event hosted by the Richmond Fed. Speech text is expected.
- 02:00 PM Beige Book, November FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The Beige Book for the September FOMC meeting period noted that overall economic activity was modest during July and August. Consumer spending on tourism was stronger than expected, and some districts’ reports suggested that consumers may have exhausted excess savings. Manufacturing contacts in 7 districts noted improved supply chains and ability to meet existing orders. Nearly all districts reported that the inventory of homes for sale remained constrained. In this month’s Beige Book, we look for anecdotes related to growth, sentiment, and the evolution of labor market tightness and inflationary pressures.
- 03:15 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak about workforce challenges at an event titled "People, Possibilities, Practice: Designing a Better Future for Workers" at the Philadelphia Fed. Speech text is expected.
- 06:55 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak about the evolution of the Fed's mandate at the Louis E. Martin Awards Ceremony at the 2023 Future of Black Communities Summit. Speech text is expected.
Thursday, October 19
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 14 (GS 205k, consensus 214k, last 209k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 7 (GS 1,725k, consensus 1,700k, last 1,702k)
- 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, October (GS -3.5, consensus -7.0, last -13.5); We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index picked up by 10pt to -3.5 in October, reflecting the rebound in East Asian industrial activity and upward convergence toward other manufacturing surveys.
- 09:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will deliver welcoming remarks at the Fed's 18th Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets. Speech text is expected. On October 9, Vice Chair Jefferson said “my view is that the FOMC is in a position to proceed carefully in assessing the extent of any additional policy firming that may be necessary.”
- 10:00 AM Existing home sales, September (GS -5.5%, consensus -4.0%, last -0.7%)
- 12:00 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at the Economic Club of New York. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected. On September 20, Chair Powell said “the fact that [the Committee] decided to maintain the policy rate at [the September FOMC] meeting doesn’t mean that we’ve decided that we have or have not at this time reached that stance of monetary policy that we’re seeking.”
- 01:20 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Business Day. A moderated Q&A is expected. On October 5, President Goolsbee said “on the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path. I still feel like this is our goal and it’s still possible.”
- 01:30 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak about stress testing at the 2023 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference at the Boston Fed. The event will be livestreamed. Speech text and moderated Q&A are expected.
- 04:00 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak on the role of policy in addressing inequality at the New School University Center. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On October 11, President Bostic said “today, I don’t think we need to do anything more in terms of interest rates.”
- 05:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at the Chartered Financial Analyst Society Philadelphia 80th Anniversary Celebration. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected.
- 06:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at a Money Marketeers of New York University event. Audience and moderated Q&A are expected. On October 9, President Logan said “if term premiums rise, they could do some of the work of cooling the economy for us, leaving less need for additional monetary policy tightening to achieve the FOMC’s objectives.”
Friday, October 20
- 09:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at the Risk Management Association Philadelphia Chapter Meeting. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected.
- 12:15 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On October 3, President Mester said “if the economy looks the way it did at the next meeting, similar to the way it looked at our recent meeting, I would do the further rate increase… I probably favor going again, but again, we’re going to have to wait and see how the economy evolves.”
Source: DB, Goldman, BofA
“Darkness On The Edge Of Town”
"Darkness On The Edge Of Town"
Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,
Poor man wanna be rich
Rich man wanna be king
Poor man wanna be rich
Rich man wanna be king
And a king ain’t satisfied
‘Til he rules everything
Badlands – Springsteen
I know Springsteen has aged into a far-left establishment shill who fell for the Covid scam, got his jabs and boosters, and is now clearly vaxx injured, as he had to cancel his world tour because of “illness”. During the covid scamdemic he made his audiences prove they were vaxxed, and then had to cancel multiple concerts because band members tested positive for covid. He and Neil Young, the anti-establishment bad boys during the early 1970’s, are now a laughing-stock to any critical thinking person who didn’t buy the government and media propaganda about a non-lethal flu bug.
Be that as it may, Springsteen’s 1975 album – Darkness on the Edge of Town – is my favorite, probably because most of the songs are dark and angry, matching my personality. Times in this country were not good in 1975. A president resigned over Watergate. Inflation was raging due to central bank and government incompetence.
The OPEC oil embargo due to the U.S. support for Israel created supply shortages and long lines at gas stations across the badlands of America. It seems support for Israel hurting America has been a constant theme over the last 50 years. As a 12 year old kid, I remember waiting in those gas lines with my dad. There were no smart phones to kill the time, maybe just my latest edition of Sports Illustrated to read.
The four lines above from Badlands pretty much sum up how the world works and how it has always worked. Everyone on this earth has 80 to 100 years, if they are lucky, to make their mark. We know a virtuous decent person would just want to work hard, earn a fair wage, marry, raise honest upstanding children, teach them morals, be a benefit to their community, and leave the world a better place than when they entered. But we know the forces of evil will not allow this path for most people.
The American Dream was a glorious fantasy, to keep the masses sedated and malleable, as those behind the scenes, pulling the strings of society, as documented by Edward Bernays in his 1928 book Propaganda, would never allow the dream to be realized by most.
“The American Dream is that dream of a land in which life should be better and richer and fuller for everyone, with opportunity for each according to ability or achievement. It is a difficult dream for the European upper classes to interpret adequately, and too many of us ourselves have grown weary and mistrustful of it. It is not a dream of motor cars and high wages merely, but a dream of social order in which each man and each woman shall be able to attain to the fullest stature of which they are innately capable, and be recognized by others for what they are, regardless of the fortuitous circumstances of birth or position.” – James Truslow Adams – The Epic of America – 1931
The American Dream has always been a fallacy, with a brief period during the 1950s and 1960s where some of the poor were able to elevate their status to the middle class. Since the 1970s, the poor have gotten poorer, even though they have been convinced by their overlords they are richer through the use of seemingly limitless debt. Driving expensive sports cars and living in McMansions while up to your eyeballs in debt is not getting richer. Buying shit you don’t need with one of your ten credit cards, to keep up with the Joneses, while paying 24% interest on the balance is not getting richer. The only ones getting richer are the already rich bankers.
There are many rich men in this world, and they aren’t satisfied with those riches. They want to use their wealth to gain more wealth, power and control over others. Life is a game to many of these psychopaths, and they want to win at all costs. Millionaires want to be billionaires. Billionaires want to be the wealthiest billionaire. And these soulless greedy accumulators of wealth want to be king and rule everything. Gates and Soros are poster boys for Springsteen’s description. They do not want to build a better world. They want to remake the world, unleashing a darkness that will engulf and destroy the planet. These are evil men who have a vast army of equally evil men working to fulfill their satanic agenda.
The gathering gloom you are feeling is real. As most people go about their daily lives, rooting for their football teams, posting drivel on facebook and twitter, buying tickets to Taylor Swift’s concert movie, staring at their i-gadget prisons, and wondering why their standard of living keeps going down, psychopaths in suits are pushing the world toward World War 3. Time to get right with the lord and be prepared for the worst. There truly is a darkness on the edge of town and it is bearing down on us like a locomotive. The dream is real and it should be waking you up at night with a fear so real. Welcome to the badlands.
Talk about a dream
Try to make it real
You wake up in the night
With a fear so real
You spend your life waiting
For a moment that just don’t come
Well, don’t waste your time waiting
Springsteen – Badlands
British pound eyes UK employment release
UK releases employment data on Tuesday BoE’s Bailey says rate decisions will be tight The British pound has started the week in positive territory. In…
- UK releases employment data on Tuesday
- BoE’s Bailey says rate decisions will be tight
The British pound has started the week in positive territory. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2166, up 0.17%. The pound had a rough week, falling by 0.74% after a hotter-than-expected US inflation report saw the US dollar climb sharply.
It’s a busy week in the UK, with employment data on Tuesday, followed by inflation on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. The Bank of England will be watching closely, with the inflation report being the key release of the three. The BoE meets next on November 2nd after pausing at the September meeting. The decision marked the first time after 14 consecutive rate increases that the BoE held rates. The move was a close call, with a 5-4 vote in the Monetary Committee Policy.
UK job growth, wages expected to ease
The BoE’s rate hikes have cooled the economy and job growth has dropped off sharply. Job creation fell by 207,000 in the three months to July, the sharpest job decline since September 2020. This sharp downtrend is expected to continue, with an estimate of a loss of 195,000 for the three months to August.
At the same time that job growth is falling, wage growth remains very strong. Average earnings including bonuses rose 8.5% y/y in the three months to July, and the market estimate for the three months to August stands at 8.3%. High wage growth is contributing to inflation, which currently stands at 6.7%. That figure is the lowest since February 2022 but is the highest in the G-7 and nowhere near the BoE’s 2% target.
Bank of England Governor Bailey said on Friday that future rate decisions would continue to be tight. The central bank is keeping its options open, and Deputy Governor Broadbent said last week that it was an “open question” whether the Bank would raise rates again. Broadbent noted that energy prices were dropping, which would likely inflation back to the 2% target by 2025. The issue facing Broadbent and his colleagues at the BoE is whether inflation will fall fast enough without any further hikes or will the BoE have to tighten further.
- GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2164. Above, there is resistance at 1.2202
- 1.2066 and 1.1973 are providing support
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