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World Out Of Whack: Global Market Commentary And Outlook

World Out Of Whack: Global Market Commentary And Outlook

Submitted by Ritesh Jain of World Out Of Whack

Today, much like in the past, it is not the best idea that wins, but the narrative which captures the most mindshare. Nothing rings true.

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World Out Of Whack: Global Market Commentary And Outlook

Submitted by Ritesh Jain of World Out Of Whack

Today, much like in the past, it is not the best idea that wins, but the narrative which captures the most mindshare. Nothing rings true than this quote of 1933 made by the Propaganda Minister of Nazi Germany

"It is the absolute right of the state to supervise the formation of public opinion." - Joseph Goebbels

As Coronavirus cases continue to increase in many parts of the world and lockdowns are put in place, the story should look grim; but there is also light at the end of the tunnel because of vaccines. After the vaccines have been administered to most of the population, there will be plenty of pent-up demand that will help the economy recover. That said, who needs vaccines when you have the central banks backstopping the markets by introducing high amounts of liquidity?

What appear to be bubbles right now, could go exponential. As J.C Parets write “News was poison in 2020. It will be worse in 2021”. The investors who often get markets right knows how to shut off the news and focus on what is important.

The vast liquidity we have today is emanating from the balance sheets of central banks. As more electronically printed dollars are pumped into financial markets, the cost of financing goes down, thereby pushing asset valuations higher. This view is further reinforced by a weakening dollar, and even by the fact that Jerome Powell has called out the explicit link between low interest rates and the high valuations in markets.

Vast amounts of liquidity can also create a lot of fragility in markets. Even if central banks continue injecting liquidity into the system, at some point markets will fully price it in. Once that happens, it can become the bigger driving force that may set up markets for a taper tantrum 2.0 of sorts as the system demands not just a continuation of liquidity provision but increasing amounts of it. Investors should no longer continue to think about how much central bank balance sheets have increased, but rather the rate at which the balance sheets are growing. The exhibit below by Morgan Stanley points to a deceleration in the rate of growth of G-4 central bank balance sheets as we approach the end of 2022.

As most readers will already know, financial markets are complex systems, which means they are highly interlinked and have feedback loops. These feedback loops lead to nonlinear effects, which means small shocks can transform into large ones due to each node in the system being interlinked to other nodes. For comparison, when too much snow accumulates, the probability that even a small snowflake can trigger an avalanche goes up significantly.

With the median correlation across asset classes reaching new highs, the probability of an avalanche goes up. Nobody could have predicted COVID-19 from appearing when it did; but what had been known for a while was that due to globalization, the world was much more prone to eventually experience a global pandemic. In a similar fashion, as markets become unhinged from their underlying fundamentals and become liquidity driven (which in turn drives correlations higher), the probability of an ‘avalanche’ occurring in the markets is becoming more and more likely.

The response to the global pandemic was to provide financing through loan guarantees and green asset financing by the government. We have had quantitative easing programs since 2008, but we have not seen inflation in goods and services because banks were not lending money. This meant that an increase in the money supply did not make it into the real economy. Today, however, after experiencing an economic shock caused by COVID-19, the government response has led to money reaching the real economy.

The pandemic has taught governments that they can now – through MMT-lite programs – lend directly to the economy through the commercial banking channel.

“You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink” is an apt quote for liquidity (M2) sloshing around in the system but refusing to multiply (M3). The M3 velocity has been stubbornly falling since March 2020 but as per Gavekal’s Velocity Indicator this money is finally looking to multiply. Said differently, the horse has finally decided to drink water.

But before you start admiring the below chart you should keep in mind that

What is good for the economy is bad for the markets and what is bad for the economy is good for the markets.

Let me explain. Liquidity is fungible. It can either go to the Financial markets or it can go the real economy. If vaccines work and business closures and layoffs subside then the money hiding in financial assets will spill over to the real economy and force Monetary policy to tighten financial conditions.

So, rising Money velocity is not good for Financial markets and on the contrary will lead to elevated volatility in financial assets.

The increase in velocity is bad for US dollar and US Dollar should continue to fall but not in a straight line. This liquidity is currently lifting all boats, but I think we will see some assets doing better than others in 2021. My bet is on Japan, Vietnam, African Continent, and commodities in general with a continuing bullish stance on precious metals, crude oil and agricultural commodities.

Central Bank digital currency.

A lot has been written in the media about central bank digital currencies (CBDC), and we might see the dawn of CBDCs with China increasingly looking like the first one to launch its version, known as CBEP.

As per a MicroStrategy paper titled “The cost of Money being nothing”:

If money supply is created centrally, it must also be used, or directed, centrally as indeed we are seeing at the moment with the lockdowns and the enormous surge in budget deficits. Under a CBDC scheme, the central bank would become arbiter of who should and shouldn’t be granted credit. By determining the price of money, it determines what is “value” and thereby what is produced and consumed, and how it is produced. It determines what the real return on capital is and how much capital is destroyed. By printing money to buy Treasuries, it has reshaped the entire economy around greater government spending and control. Under a central bank digital currency, monetary policy will become completely political.

Bullish on Japan

Japan is the only country in the G-7 where monetary policy and fiscal policy are working seamlessly thanks to embedded Abenomics reforms. Valuations are cheap, and more importantly, it is a very unloved market from an institutional and retail investor perspective. Below is a chart of 5-year flows into the biggest Japanese ETF (EWJ).

Further, this chart from Morgan Stanley explains the Japanese story in simple terms:

Bullish on Vietnam

Vietnam will be one of the few countries in the world that will boast double-digit nominal GDP growth rates once the COVID-induced slowdown is over. The country has real rates in the range of 200-300 bps and a low fiscal deficit, which is a rarity in today’s world. Positive real rates, low and stable inflation, low unemployment, and a positive current account balance are characteristics of a strong economy. India was exhibiting all these characteristics in 2002-2003 (except a positive CA balance) right before a domestic consumption boom began. Vietnam is also going to be a big beneficiary of a “reshoring boom” out of China

https://www.bofaml.com/content/dam/boamlimages/documents/articles/ID20_0147/Tectonic_Shifts_in_Global_Supply_Chains.pdf

Bullish on Africa

Africa is resource rich and it is going to be the next frontier of growth led by technological advancement, connectivity and more importantly the battleground of largesse for the two competing superpowers i.e., US and China. China is already increasing its influence in Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative and it plans to complement that by extending its CBDC reach over the entirety of the continent.

African countries will have much better access to credit and will be able to sidestep a boom-and-bust cycle of currency devaluation, providing them with much needed economic stability.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerhuang/2020/05/25/china-will-use-its-digital-currency-to-compete-with-the-usd/?sh=5dd1bbab31e8

Bullish on Commodities

Commodities almost always rise when there is a supply side shock. The rise in commodity prices is rarely demand driven because demand can be modeled, while supply shocks are much harder to predict. If you see the chart below you will find that all peaks and troughs happen around events, and I believe that COVID-19 was such an event, which has broken supply chains across the world. The years of underinvestment in commodities and energy in general was waiting for a catalyst to start showing up in prices and I think we have that catalyst firmly in place. I also believe that soft commodities, base metals, the entire energy complex including coal and Uranium and precious metals will see more inflow of capital as they are under represented in investors portfolio.

Where can we lose the most money?

We must understand that markets are not cheap by any measure.

I would say the easiest answer is in consensus, but the most concerning thing for me is the sentiment. Now, this does not mean we will get an imminent price correction, but it does mean that the market is vulnerable to any negative catalyst. I do not recall grappling with so many of these negative catalysts at the start of a year, and especially when most assets were not cheap from a historical perspective. The resurgence of the virus, a surprise increase in inflation, policy missteps, a jump in bond yields or bond spreads, fears of stagflation, China launching its digital currency, broken supply chains, geopolitical flashpoints etc. – and the list is still not exhaustive by any imagination, in my opinion.

I believe that there is a reasonable possibility that any of these catalysts could materialize and give us a risk-off environment at various points in 2021. I expect to see a 10-20% correction in broad indices whenever a risk-off episode materializes with much larger drawdowns for individual securities. All corrections will be met with a forceful response from Monetary and/or Fiscal authorities who are left with no choice but to support the system and hope to inflate away the massive overhang of debt built in the system.

The best way to play this environment is either through having cash (at least 30%) as an asset allocation, ready to be deployed at short notice, or by buying far out of money call options on volatility whenever the markets are in a euphoria stage.

The cash deployment during these events should be in commodity producers, asset owners or Emerging Markets

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/04/2021 - 21:20

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Chronic stress and inflammation linked to societal and environmental impacts in new study

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors…

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From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

Credit: Image: Vodovotz et al/Frontiers

From anxiety about the state of the world to ongoing waves of Covid-19, the stresses we face can seem relentless and even overwhelming. Worse, these stressors can cause chronic inflammation in our bodies. Chronic inflammation is linked to serious conditions such as cardiovascular disease and cancer – and may also affect our thinking and behavior.   

A new hypothesis published in Frontiers in Science suggests the negative impacts may extend far further.   

“We propose that stress, inflammation, and consequently impaired cognition in individuals can scale up to communities and populations,” explained lead author Prof Yoram Vodovotz of the University of Pittsburgh, USA.

“This could affect the decision-making and behavior of entire societies, impair our cognitive ability to address complex issues like climate change, social unrest, and infectious disease – and ultimately lead to a self-sustaining cycle of societal dysfunction and environmental degradation,” he added.

Bodily inflammation ‘mapped’ in the brain  

One central premise to the hypothesis is an association between chronic inflammation and cognitive dysfunction.  

“The cause of this well-known phenomenon is not currently known,” said Vodovotz. “We propose a mechanism, which we call the ‘central inflammation map’.”    

The authors’ novel idea is that the brain creates its own copy of bodily inflammation. Normally, this inflammation map allows the brain to manage the inflammatory response and promote healing.   

When inflammation is high or chronic, however, the response goes awry and can damage healthy tissues and organs. The authors suggest the inflammation map could similarly harm the brain and impair cognition, emotion, and behavior.   

Accelerated spread of stress and inflammation online   

A second premise is the spread of chronic inflammation from individuals to populations.  

“While inflammation is not contagious per se, it could still spread via the transmission of stress among people,” explained Vodovotz.   

The authors further suggest that stress is being transmitted faster than ever before, through social media and other digital communications.  

“People are constantly bombarded with high levels of distressing information, be it the news, negative online comments, or a feeling of inadequacy when viewing social media feeds,” said Vodovotz. “We hypothesize that this new dimension of human experience, from which it is difficult to escape, is driving stress, chronic inflammation, and cognitive impairment across global societies.”   

Inflammation as a driver of social and planetary disruption  

These ideas shift our view of inflammation as a biological process restricted to an individual. Instead, the authors see it as a multiscale process linking molecular, cellular, and physiological interactions in each of us to altered decision-making and behavior in populations – and ultimately to large-scale societal and environmental impacts.  

“Stress-impaired judgment could explain the chaotic and counter-intuitive responses of large parts of the global population to stressful events such as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic,” explained Vodovotz.  

“An inability to address these and other stressors may propagate a self-fulfilling sense of pervasive danger, causing further stress, inflammation, and impaired cognition in a runaway, positive feedback loop,” he added.  

The fact that current levels of global stress have not led to widespread societal disorder could indicate an equally strong stabilizing effect from “controllers” such as trust in laws, science, and multinational organizations like the United Nations.   

“However, societal norms and institutions are increasingly being questioned, at times rightly so as relics of a foregone era,” said Prof Paul Verschure of Radboud University, the Netherlands, and a co-author of the article. “The challenge today is how we can ward off a new adversarial era of instability due to global stress caused by a multi-scale combination of geopolitical fragmentation, conflicts, and ecological collapse amplified by existential angst, cognitive overload, and runaway disinformation.”    

Reducing social media exposure as part of the solution  

The authors developed a mathematical model to test their ideas and explore ways to reduce stress and build resilience.  

“Preliminary results highlight the need for interventions at multiple levels and scales,” commented co-author Prof Julia Arciero of Indiana University, USA.  

“While anti-inflammatory drugs are sometimes used to treat medical conditions associated with inflammation, we do not believe these are the whole answer for individuals,” said Dr David Katz, co-author and a specialist in preventive and lifestyle medicine based in the US. “Lifestyle changes such as healthy nutrition, exercise, and reducing exposure to stressful online content could also be important.”  

“The dawning new era of precision and personalized therapeutics could also offer enormous potential,” he added.  

At the societal level, the authors suggest creating calm public spaces and providing education on the norms and institutions that keep our societies stable and functioning.  

“While our ‘inflammation map’ hypothesis and corresponding mathematical model are a start, a coordinated and interdisciplinary research effort is needed to define interventions that would improve the lives of individuals and the resilience of communities to stress. We hope our article stimulates scientists around the world to take up this challenge,” Vodovotz concluded.  

The article is part of the Frontiers in Science multimedia article hub ‘A multiscale map of inflammatory stress’. The hub features a video, an explainer, a version of the article written for kids, and an editorial, viewpoints, and policy outlook from other eminent experts: Prof David Almeida (Penn State University, USA), Prof Pietro Ghezzi (University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy), and Dr Ioannis P Androulakis (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA). 


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Acadia’s Nuplazid fails PhIII study due to higher-than-expected placebo effect

After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia…

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After years of trying to expand the market territory for Nuplazid, Acadia Pharmaceuticals might have hit a dead end, with a Phase III fail in schizophrenia due to the placebo arm performing better than expected.

Steve Davis

“We will continue to analyze these data with our scientific advisors, but we do not intend to conduct any further clinical trials with pimavanserin,” CEO Steve Davis said in a Monday press release. Acadia’s stock $ACAD dropped by 17.41% before the market opened Tuesday.

Pimavanserin, a serotonin inverse agonist and also a 5-HT2A receptor antagonist, is already in the market with the brand name Nuplazid for Parkinson’s disease psychosis. Efforts to expand into other indications such as Alzheimer’s-related psychosis and major depression have been unsuccessful, and previous trials in schizophrenia have yielded mixed data at best. Its February presentation does not list other pimavanserin studies in progress.

The Phase III ADVANCE-2 trial investigated 34 mg pimavanserin versus placebo in 454 patients who have negative symptoms of schizophrenia. The study used the negative symptom assessment-16 (NSA-16) total score as a primary endpoint and followed participants up to week 26. Study participants have control of positive symptoms due to antipsychotic therapies.

The company said that the change from baseline in this measure for the treatment arm was similar between the Phase II ADVANCE-1 study and ADVANCE-2 at -11.6 and -11.8, respectively. However, the placebo was higher in ADVANCE-2 at -11.1, when this was -8.5 in ADVANCE-1. The p-value in ADVANCE-2 was 0.4825.

In July last year, another Phase III schizophrenia trial — by Sumitomo and Otsuka — also reported negative results due to what the company noted as Covid-19 induced placebo effect.

According to Mizuho Securities analysts, ADVANCE-2 data were disappointing considering the company applied what it learned from ADVANCE-1, such as recruiting patients outside the US to alleviate a high placebo effect. The Phase III recruited participants in Argentina and Europe.

Analysts at Cowen added that the placebo effect has been a “notorious headwind” in US-based trials, which appears to “now extend” to ex-US studies. But they also noted ADVANCE-1 reported a “modest effect” from the drug anyway.

Nonetheless, pimavanserin’s safety profile in the late-stage study “was consistent with previous clinical trials,” with the drug having an adverse event rate of 30.4% versus 40.3% with placebo, the company said. Back in 2018, even with the FDA approval for Parkinson’s psychosis, there was an intense spotlight on Nuplazid’s safety profile.

Acadia previously aimed to get Nuplazid approved for Alzheimer’s-related psychosis but had many hurdles. The drug faced an adcomm in June 2022 that voted 9-3 noting that the drug is unlikely to be effective in this setting, culminating in a CRL a few months later.

As for the company’s next R&D milestones, Mizuho analysts said it won’t be anytime soon: There is the Phase III study for ACP-101 in Prader-Willi syndrome with data expected late next year and a Phase II trial for ACP-204 in Alzheimer’s disease psychosis with results anticipated in 2026.

Acadia collected $549.2 million in full-year 2023 revenues for Nuplazid, with $143.9 million in the fourth quarter.

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare…

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Four Years Ago This Week, Freedom Was Torched

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Brownstone Institute,

"Beware the Ides of March,” Shakespeare quotes the soothsayer’s warning Julius Caesar about what turned out to be an impending assassination on March 15. The death of American liberty happened around the same time four years ago, when the orders went out from all levels of government to close all indoor and outdoor venues where people gather. 

It was not quite a law and it was never voted on by anyone. Seemingly out of nowhere, people who the public had largely ignored, the public health bureaucrats, all united to tell the executives in charge – mayors, governors, and the president – that the only way to deal with a respiratory virus was to scrap freedom and the Bill of Rights. 

And they did, not only in the US but all over the world. 

The forced closures in the US began on March 6 when the mayor of Austin, Texas, announced the shutdown of the technology and arts festival South by Southwest. Hundreds of thousands of contracts, of attendees and vendors, were instantly scrapped. The mayor said he was acting on the advice of his health experts and they in turn pointed to the CDC, which in turn pointed to the World Health Organization, which in turn pointed to member states and so on. 

There was no record of Covid in Austin, Texas, that day but they were sure they were doing their part to stop the spread. It was the first deployment of the “Zero Covid” strategy that became, for a time, official US policy, just as in China. 

It was never clear precisely who to blame or who would take responsibility, legal or otherwise. 

This Friday evening press conference in Austin was just the beginning. By the next Thursday evening, the lockdown mania reached a full crescendo. Donald Trump went on nationwide television to announce that everything was under control but that he was stopping all travel in and out of US borders, from Europe, the UK, Australia, and New Zealand. American citizens would need to return by Monday or be stuck. 

Americans abroad panicked while spending on tickets home and crowded into international airports with waits up to 8 hours standing shoulder to shoulder. It was the first clear sign: there would be no consistency in the deployment of these edicts. 

There is no historical record of any American president ever issuing global travel restrictions like this without a declaration of war. Until then, and since the age of travel began, every American had taken it for granted that he could buy a ticket and board a plane. That was no longer possible. Very quickly it became even difficult to travel state to state, as most states eventually implemented a two-week quarantine rule. 

The next day, Friday March 13, Broadway closed and New York City began to empty out as any residents who could went to summer homes or out of state. 

On that day, the Trump administration declared the national emergency by invoking the Stafford Act which triggers new powers and resources to the Federal Emergency Management Administration. 

In addition, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document, only to be released to the public months later. The document initiated the lockdowns. It still does not exist on any government website.

The White House Coronavirus Response Task Force, led by the Vice President, will coordinate a whole-of-government approach, including governors, state and local officials, and members of Congress, to develop the best options for the safety, well-being, and health of the American people. HHS is the LFA [Lead Federal Agency] for coordinating the federal response to COVID-19.

Closures were guaranteed:

Recommend significantly limiting public gatherings and cancellation of almost all sporting events, performances, and public and private meetings that cannot be convened by phone. Consider school closures. Issue widespread ‘stay at home’ directives for public and private organizations, with nearly 100% telework for some, although critical public services and infrastructure may need to retain skeleton crews. Law enforcement could shift to focus more on crime prevention, as routine monitoring of storefronts could be important.

In this vision of turnkey totalitarian control of society, the vaccine was pre-approved: “Partner with pharmaceutical industry to produce anti-virals and vaccine.”

The National Security Council was put in charge of policy making. The CDC was just the marketing operation. That’s why it felt like martial law. Without using those words, that’s what was being declared. It even urged information management, with censorship strongly implied.

The timing here is fascinating. This document came out on a Friday. But according to every autobiographical account – from Mike Pence and Scott Gottlieb to Deborah Birx and Jared Kushner – the gathered team did not meet with Trump himself until the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Saturday and Sunday. 

According to their account, this was his first real encounter with the urge that he lock down the whole country. He reluctantly agreed to 15 days to flatten the curve. He announced this on Monday the 16th with the famous line: “All public and private venues where people gather should be closed.”

This makes no sense. The decision had already been made and all enabling documents were already in circulation. 

There are only two possibilities. 

One: the Department of Homeland Security issued this March 13 HHS document without Trump’s knowledge or authority. That seems unlikely. 

Two: Kushner, Birx, Pence, and Gottlieb are lying. They decided on a story and they are sticking to it. 

Trump himself has never explained the timeline or precisely when he decided to greenlight the lockdowns. To this day, he avoids the issue beyond his constant claim that he doesn’t get enough credit for his handling of the pandemic.

With Nixon, the famous question was always what did he know and when did he know it? When it comes to Trump and insofar as concerns Covid lockdowns – unlike the fake allegations of collusion with Russia – we have no investigations. To this day, no one in the corporate media seems even slightly interested in why, how, or when human rights got abolished by bureaucratic edict. 

As part of the lockdowns, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which was and is part of the Department of Homeland Security, as set up in 2018, broke the entire American labor force into essential and nonessential.

They also set up and enforced censorship protocols, which is why it seemed like so few objected. In addition, CISA was tasked with overseeing mail-in ballots. 

Only 8 days into the 15, Trump announced that he wanted to open the country by Easter, which was on April 12. His announcement on March 24 was treated as outrageous and irresponsible by the national press but keep in mind: Easter would already take us beyond the initial two-week lockdown. What seemed to be an opening was an extension of closing. 

This announcement by Trump encouraged Birx and Fauci to ask for an additional 30 days of lockdown, which Trump granted. Even on April 23, Trump told Georgia and Florida, which had made noises about reopening, that “It’s too soon.” He publicly fought with the governor of Georgia, who was first to open his state. 

Before the 15 days was over, Congress passed and the president signed the 880-page CARES Act, which authorized the distribution of $2 trillion to states, businesses, and individuals, thus guaranteeing that lockdowns would continue for the duration. 

There was never a stated exit plan beyond Birx’s public statements that she wanted zero cases of Covid in the country. That was never going to happen. It is very likely that the virus had already been circulating in the US and Canada from October 2019. A famous seroprevalence study by Jay Bhattacharya came out in May 2020 discerning that infections and immunity were already widespread in the California county they examined. 

What that implied was two crucial points: there was zero hope for the Zero Covid mission and this pandemic would end as they all did, through endemicity via exposure, not from a vaccine as such. That was certainly not the message that was being broadcast from Washington. The growing sense at the time was that we all had to sit tight and just wait for the inoculation on which pharmaceutical companies were working. 

By summer 2020, you recall what happened. A restless generation of kids fed up with this stay-at-home nonsense seized on the opportunity to protest racial injustice in the killing of George Floyd. Public health officials approved of these gatherings – unlike protests against lockdowns – on grounds that racism was a virus even more serious than Covid. Some of these protests got out of hand and became violent and destructive. 

Meanwhile, substance abuse rage – the liquor and weed stores never closed – and immune systems were being degraded by lack of normal exposure, exactly as the Bakersfield doctors had predicted. Millions of small businesses had closed. The learning losses from school closures were mounting, as it turned out that Zoom school was near worthless. 

It was about this time that Trump seemed to figure out – thanks to the wise council of Dr. Scott Atlas – that he had been played and started urging states to reopen. But it was strange: he seemed to be less in the position of being a president in charge and more of a public pundit, Tweeting out his wishes until his account was banned. He was unable to put the worms back in the can that he had approved opening. 

By that time, and by all accounts, Trump was convinced that the whole effort was a mistake, that he had been trolled into wrecking the country he promised to make great. It was too late. Mail-in ballots had been widely approved, the country was in shambles, the media and public health bureaucrats were ruling the airwaves, and his final months of the campaign failed even to come to grips with the reality on the ground. 

At the time, many people had predicted that once Biden took office and the vaccine was released, Covid would be declared to have been beaten. But that didn’t happen and mainly for one reason: resistance to the vaccine was more intense than anyone had predicted. The Biden administration attempted to impose mandates on the entire US workforce. Thanks to a Supreme Court ruling, that effort was thwarted but not before HR departments around the country had already implemented them. 

As the months rolled on – and four major cities closed all public accommodations to the unvaccinated, who were being demonized for prolonging the pandemic – it became clear that the vaccine could not and would not stop infection or transmission, which means that this shot could not be classified as a public health benefit. Even as a private benefit, the evidence was mixed. Any protection it provided was short-lived and reports of vaccine injury began to mount. Even now, we cannot gain full clarity on the scale of the problem because essential data and documentation remains classified. 

After four years, we find ourselves in a strange position. We still do not know precisely what unfolded in mid-March 2020: who made what decisions, when, and why. There has been no serious attempt at any high level to provide a clear accounting much less assign blame. 

Not even Tucker Carlson, who reportedly played a crucial role in getting Trump to panic over the virus, will tell us the source of his own information or what his source told him. There have been a series of valuable hearings in the House and Senate but they have received little to no press attention, and none have focus on the lockdown orders themselves. 

The prevailing attitude in public life is just to forget the whole thing. And yet we live now in a country very different from the one we inhabited five years ago. Our media is captured. Social media is widely censored in violation of the First Amendment, a problem being taken up by the Supreme Court this month with no certainty of the outcome. The administrative state that seized control has not given up power. Crime has been normalized. Art and music institutions are on the rocks. Public trust in all official institutions is at rock bottom. We don’t even know if we can trust the elections anymore. 

In the early days of lockdown, Henry Kissinger warned that if the mitigation plan does not go well, the world will find itself set “on fire.” He died in 2023. Meanwhile, the world is indeed on fire. The essential struggle in every country on earth today concerns the battle between the authority and power of permanent administration apparatus of the state – the very one that took total control in lockdowns – and the enlightenment ideal of a government that is responsible to the will of the people and the moral demand for freedom and rights. 

How this struggle turns out is the essential story of our times. 

CODA: I’m embedding a copy of PanCAP Adapted, as annotated by Debbie Lerman. You might need to download the whole thing to see the annotations. If you can help with research, please do.

*  *  *

Jeffrey Tucker is the author of the excellent new book 'Life After Lock-Down'

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 23:40

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