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Winter Is Coming…

Winter Is Coming…

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3 years ago

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Winter Is Coming... Tyler Durden Sun, 11/15/2020 - 12:10

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Realism must precede optimism or the optimism will collapse as the tsunami of reality comes ashore.

It's time to prepare materially and psychologically for a winter unlike any other in our lifetimes.

Here's the view from 30,000 feet:

1. The stock market and the general zeitgeist of optimism have soared based on expectations that the real-world economy and efforts to suppress Covid would also track a V-shaped recovery.

While GDP did make a V-shaped recovery, GDP (gross domestic product) is a measure of flows and consumption, not a measure of the socio-economic "balance sheet." GDP measures the money flowing through accounts but not the "assets" of a functioning society: functional institutions and infrastructure and the well-being and security of the citizenry.

Thus GDP soars while the real-world economy and society are hollowed out by economic inequality, declining health, financial insecurity, rising prices for essentials, dysfunctional institutions and decaying infrastructure.

Simply put, GDP doesn't measure what's important; it creates destructive incentives to squander resources and borrow staggering sums to support more consumption. This systemic flaw in what we measure has long been recognized by mainstream economists such as Joseph Stiglitz. Measuring What Counts: The Global Movement for Well-Being (Joseph E. Stiglitz et al.)

So the recovery of GDP doesn't mean the real-world economy has been restored to pre-Covid settings. GDP is a deceptive metric that's masking a free-fall in our well-being, security and social cohesion.

2. Just as GDP is a deceptive measure of the economy, counting Covid fatalities is equally deceptive: a declining death count is good news, of course, but that ignores the other effects of Covid, particularly organ damage and "Long-Covid" debilitation, not just in people with pre-existing conditions and the elderly but in healthy middle-aged and even some young people.

As this article from the University of California - San Francisco (UCSF)--one of the world's top healthcare research centers--explains, this is the result of Covid being a hybrid virus. Initially it was thought to be a respiratory virus like influenza, but it is now clear that Covid infects and disrupts many other systems in the body--endothelial, digestive, the heart and other organs.

We Thought It Was Just a Respiratory Virus: We were wrong.

What We Know So Far about How COVID Affects the Nervous System (scientificamerican.com)

Risk for In-Hospital Complications Associated with COVID-19 and Influenza (CDC) 

"Patients with COVID-19 had almost 19 times the risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) than did patients with influenza. The percentage of COVID-19 patients who died while hospitalized (21.0%) was more than five times that of influenza patients (3.8%), and the duration of hospitalization was almost three times longer for COVID-19 patients."

The precise pathways and mechanisms of these long-term consequences are under intense study. Initial estimates are that about 1 in 20 people who came down with Covid are suffering some long-term consequences. These consequences--for example, damage to the heart--are typically only identifiable by exams and tests: superficially, the damage is not visible.

What is known is that Long-Covid affects females more than males, it affects otherwise healthy people who were previously fit and active, and tens of thousands of people have reported long-term symptoms of extreme fatigue, brain fog, etc.

There are no treatments yet and the prognosis is cloudy. There is no clarity yet on how long these problems may last or if damage to organs is permanent.

So the percentage of people dying from complications of Covid may not be the number that most accurately reflects the disease's toll: the number of people with Long-Covid might be the more accurate reflection of the toll and the seriousness of the challenges ahead.

At 12, She's a Covid 'Long Hauler'

3. Many see herd immunity as the eventual solution to Covid. History suggests this isn't as neat and tidy as many expect. The first wave of a novel pathogen may appear to reach herd immunity, only to re-emerge a few years later with renewed contagious vigor.

While it's far too early to reach any definitive conclusions, preliminary evidence suggests natural immunity might decay within 6 months. This is supported by documented cases of re-infection, and in some cases the second infection is much worse than the initial infection. What reinfections mean for COVID-19 (The Lancet)

This evidence suggests herd immunity might not be the solution many expect.

Herd immunity is reached around 60% or higher, which suggests 200 million Americans would need to be infected to reach herd immunity.

4. The death rate for Covid is low for the entire populace, but it rises sharply for those with pre-existing conditions such as metabolic disorders (diabetes, pre-diabetes, etc.) and age (over 65).

A recent study on at-risk patients (ages 60 to 72) in 38 hospitals found about 30% had died within 60 days.

Sixty-Day Outcomes Among Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 (Annals of Internal Medicine)

The problem is these at-risk populations are not small. There are 34 million people with diabetes, and an estimated 88 million Americans are pre-diabetic. 53 million Americans are 65 or older, and roughly 7 million are 80 and over.

There is obvious overlap in these categories--people may be diabetic at age 70--but even with the overlap, these at-risk populations are roughly half the entire population (165 million people).

As this article from Nature.com explains, the infection fatality ratio (IFR) rises from near-zero for young people to 3.1% for 65-74 year olds and 11.6% for those 75 and older. The coronavirus is most deadly if you are older and male — new data reveal the risks (Nature.com)

According to this report from the American Diabetes Association, the data from early reporting indicates the death rate for those with diabetes was 7.3%.

COVID-19 in People With Diabetes: Urgently Needed Lessons From Early Reports (American Diabetes Association)

As a thought experiment, let's apply these death rates to at-risk populations at the "herd immunity" minimum of 60% of the populace:

A. 34 million diabetics X 60% = 20 million X 7% = 1.4 million deaths

B. 65-74 age group (28.6 million) X 60% = 17 million X 3.1% = 553,000 deaths

C. 75-84 group (14.2 million) + 85+ group (6.4 million) = 20.6 million X 60% = 12.4 million X 11.6% = 1.4 million deaths

This adds up to 3.3 million deaths without even counting any deaths in the populace younger than 65 or among the 88 million people with metabolic disorders.

The data suggests that 200 million infected people (60% of the U.S. population) would lead to about 3 million deaths and 10 million cases of Long-Covid.

Let's say better treatments and self-isolation will cut the deaths to 2.5 million. That would be extremely positive, but what about the Long-Covid cases? The system has yet to even start collecting comprehensive data. Thus many of the eventual consequences and costs will remain unknown.

5. Hospitalizations are rising rapidly. Hospitalizations and deaths are trending upward.

Yet experts warn that the variability may simply end with the virus resurging to high levels across the entire country. "I don't see any location in the United States that's going to be free of a major increase in cases," he said. "And I think we're just getting started."

When high case counts emerge in communities, the spillover to surrounding populations is rapid, Dr. Osterholm said. The situation, he noted, can be likened to a "coronavirus forest fire."

"A forest fire never burns evenly everywhere," he said. "But if the embers are still around, they ignite again and then that area does burn eventually. And I think that that's what we're seeing here."

"We're going to see much less evidence of regionalization of this virus over the course of the next several weeks," said Dr. Michael Osterholm, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Minnesota. "I think this is going to ultimately end up being an entire country on fire."

6. If you look at the chart of hospitalizations, the healthcare system in many locales was experiencing extreme stress at 60,000 hospitalizations, and so the rise above this level could trigger second-order effects which could cascade into a breakdown.

As this report from the CDC explains, a significant number of healthcare workers have been infected and hospitalized, and many died. COVID-19–Associated Hospitalizations Among Health Care Personnel (CDC)

Should the number of healthcare workers who contract the disease or burn out due to extended shifts and exhaustion rise beyond a certain point, the ability to provide care from everyone who is seriously ill may become severely impaired.

So there are two limiting factors on care as the number of hospitalizations soars: the number of beds available in Covid-secure wards and the number of healthcare workers available to provide care.

If either of these limits are reached, death rates may rise as patients are unable to get all the care they would have received had cases and hospitalizations not exceeded the capacity of the system.

7. There are lag times in effects and reporting:

--3 weeks: infection-to-death

--4 weeks: deaths reporting

--4 weeks: propagation to older age groups

--8 weeks: infection, partial recovery/discharged from ICU, death

Note the almost exponential rise in cases being reported. We can anticipate a surge in hospitalizations, deaths and spread to older populations in the weeks and months ahead.

8. Vaccines: I provided an analysis and numerous links on the many uncertainties surrounding vaccines in

Everything You Don't Want to Know About Covid Vaccines (Because You Can't Be Bullish Anymore) (November 11, 2020)

Covid-19 Vaccine Protocols Reveal That Trials Are Designed To Succeed (Forbes.com) by William A. Haseltine

9. The virus remains highly contagious. Wedding and Birthday Party Infect 56, Leaving Nearly 300 in Quarantine (New York Times)

The projections presented here are basic math, yet few seem to have done the simple math, perhaps because the results are sobering and don't fit the desired "optimism."

Realism must precede optimism or the optimism will collapse as the tsunami of reality comes ashore.

No one knows the future, but current trends suggest all the euphoric expectations of a fast, painless recovery were tragically misplaced.

Here is the chart I prepared a week after Covid-19 hit the news in late January. 

Reality has been tracking my first-out-of-the-gate projection with remarkable coherence.

*  *  *

My recent books:

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook coming soon) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF).

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

*  *  *

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International

United Airlines adds new flights to faraway destinations

The airline said that it has been working hard to "find hidden gem destinations."

Published

2 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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Since countries started opening up after the pandemic in 2021 and 2022, airlines have been seeing demand soar not just for major global cities and popular routes but also for farther-away destinations.

Numerous reports, including a recent TripAdvisor survey of trending destinations, showed that there has been a rise in U.S. traveler interest in Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Vietnam as well as growing tourism traction in off-the-beaten-path European countries such as Slovenia, Estonia and Montenegro.

Related: 'No more flying for you': Travel agency sounds alarm over risk of 'carbon passports'

As a result, airlines have been looking at their networks to include more faraway destinations as well as smaller cities that are growing increasingly popular with tourists and may not be served by their competitors.

The Philippines has been popular among tourists in recent years.

Shutterstock

United brings back more routes, says it is committed to 'finding hidden gems'

This week, United Airlines  (UAL)  announced that it will be launching a new route from Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) to Morocco's Marrakesh. While it is only the country's fourth-largest city, Marrakesh is a particularly popular place for tourists to seek out the sights and experiences that many associate with the country — colorful souks, gardens with ornate architecture and mosques from the Moorish period.

More Travel:

"We have consistently been ahead of the curve in finding hidden gem destinations for our customers to explore and remain committed to providing the most unique slate of travel options for their adventures abroad," United's SVP of Global Network Planning Patrick Quayle, said in a press statement.

The new route will launch on Oct. 24 and take place three times a week on a Boeing 767-300ER  (BA)  plane that is equipped with 46 Polaris business class and 22 Premium Plus seats. The plane choice was a way to reach a luxury customer customer looking to start their holiday in Marrakesh in the plane.

Along with the new Morocco route, United is also launching a flight between Houston (IAH) and Colombia's Medellín on Oct. 27 as well as a route between Tokyo and Cebu in the Philippines on July 31 — the latter is known as a "fifth freedom" flight in which the airline flies to the larger hub from the mainland U.S. and then goes on to smaller Asian city popular with tourists after some travelers get off (and others get on) in Tokyo.

United's network expansion includes new 'fifth freedom' flight

In the fall of 2023, United became the first U.S. airline to fly to the Philippines with a new Manila-San Francisco flight. It has expanded its service to Asia from different U.S. cities earlier last year. Cebu has been on its radar amid growing tourist interest in the region known for marine parks, rainforests and Spanish-style architecture.

With the summer coming up, United also announced that it plans to run its current flights to Hong Kong, Seoul, and Portugal's Porto more frequently at different points of the week and reach four weekly flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai by August 29.

"This is your normal, exciting network planning team back in action," Quayle told travel website The Points Guy of the airline's plans for the new routes.

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International

Walmart launches clever answer to Target’s new membership program

The retail superstore is adding a new feature to its Walmart+ plan — and customers will be happy.

Published

2 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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It's just been a few days since Target  (TGT)  launched its new Target Circle 360 paid membership plan. 

The plan offers free and fast shipping on many products to customers, initially for $49 a year and then $99 after the initial promotional signup period. It promises to be a success, since many Target customers are loyal to the brand and will go out of their way to shop at one instead of at its two larger peers, Walmart and Amazon.

Related: Walmart makes a major price cut that will delight customers

And stop us if this sounds familiar: Target will rely on its more than 2,000 stores to act as fulfillment hubs. 

This model is a proven winner; Walmart also uses its more than 4,600 stores as fulfillment and shipping locations to get orders to customers as soon as possible.

Sometimes, this means shipping goods from the nearest warehouse. But if a desired product is in-store and closer to a customer, it reduces miles on the road and delivery time. It's a kind of logistical magic that makes any efficiency lover's (or retail nerd's) heart go pitter patter. 

Walmart rolls out answer to Target's new membership tier

Walmart has certainly had more time than Target to develop and work out the kinks in Walmart+. It first launched the paid membership in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, when many shoppers sheltered at home but still required many staples they might ordinarily pick up at a Walmart, like cleaning supplies, personal-care products, pantry goods and, of course, toilet paper. 

It also undercut Amazon  (AMZN)  Prime, which costs customers $139 a year for free and fast shipping (plus several other benefits including access to its streaming service, Amazon Prime Video). 

Walmart+ costs $98 a year, which also gets you free and speedy delivery, plus access to a Paramount+ streaming subscription, fuel savings, and more. 

An employee at a Merida, Mexico, Walmart. (Photo by Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)

Jeff Greenberg/Getty Images

If that's not enough to tempt you, however, Walmart+ just added a new benefit to its membership program, ostensibly to compete directly with something Target now has: ultrafast delivery. 

Target Circle 360 particularly attracts customers with free same-day delivery for select orders over $35 and as little as one-hour delivery on select items. Target executes this through its Shipt subsidiary.

We've seen this lightning-fast delivery speed only in snippets from Amazon, the king of delivery efficiency. Who better to take on Target, though, than Walmart, which is using a similar store-as-fulfillment-center model? 

"Walmart is stepping up to save our customers even more time with our latest delivery offering: Express On-Demand Early Morning Delivery," Walmart said in a statement, just a day after Target Circle 360 launched. "Starting at 6 a.m., earlier than ever before, customers can enjoy the convenience of On-Demand delivery."

Walmart  (WMT)  clearly sees consumers' desire for near-instant delivery, which obviously saves time and trips to the store. Rather than waiting a day for your order to show up, it might be on your doorstep when you wake up. 

Consumers also tend to spend more money when they shop online, and they remain stickier as paying annual members. So, to a growing number of retail giants, almost instant gratification like this seems like something worth striving for.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Government

President Biden Delivers The “Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President”

President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through…

Published

4 hours ago

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March 8, 2024

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President Biden Delivers The "Darkest, Most Un-American Speech Given By A President"

Having successfully raged, ranted, lied, and yelled through the State of The Union, President Biden can go back to his crypt now.

Whatever 'they' gave Biden, every American man, woman, and the other should be allowed to take it - though it seems the cocktail brings out 'dark Brandon'?

Tl;dw: Biden's Speech tonight ...

  • Fund Ukraine.

  • Trump is threat to democracy and America itself.

  • Abortion is good.

  • American Economy is stronger than ever.

  • Inflation wasn't Biden's fault.

  • Illegals are Americans too.

  • Republicans are responsible for the border crisis.

  • Trump is bad.

  • Biden stands with trans-children.

  • J6 was the worst insurrection since the Civil War.

(h/t @TCDMS99)

Tucker Carlson's response sums it all up perfectly:

"that was possibly the darkest, most un-American speech given by an American president. It wasn't a speech, it was a rant..."

Carlson continued: "The true measure of a nation's greatness lies within its capacity to control borders, yet Bid refuses to do it."

"In a fair election, Joe Biden cannot win"

And concluded:

“There was not a meaningful word for the entire duration about the things that actually matter to people who live here.”

Victor Davis Hanson added some excellent color, but this was probably the best line on Biden:

"he doesn't care... he lives in an alternative reality."

*  *  *

Watch SOTU Live here...

*   *   *

Mises' Connor O'Keeffe, warns: "Be on the Lookout for These Lies in Biden's State of the Union Address." 

On Thursday evening, President Joe Biden is set to give his third State of the Union address. The political press has been buzzing with speculation over what the president will say. That speculation, however, is focused more on how Biden will perform, and which issues he will prioritize. Much of the speech is expected to be familiar.

The story Biden will tell about what he has done as president and where the country finds itself as a result will be the same dishonest story he's been telling since at least the summer.

He'll cite government statistics to say the economy is growing, unemployment is low, and inflation is down.

Something that has been frustrating Biden, his team, and his allies in the media is that the American people do not feel as economically well off as the official data says they are. Despite what the White House and establishment-friendly journalists say, the problem lies with the data, not the American people's ability to perceive their own well-being.

As I wrote back in January, the reason for the discrepancy is the lack of distinction made between private economic activity and government spending in the most frequently cited economic indicators. There is an important difference between the two:

  • Government, unlike any other entity in the economy, can simply take money and resources from others to spend on things and hire people. Whether or not the spending brings people value is irrelevant

  • It's the private sector that's responsible for producing goods and services that actually meet people's needs and wants. So, the private components of the economy have the most significant effect on people's economic well-being.

Recently, government spending and hiring has accounted for a larger than normal share of both economic activity and employment. This means the government is propping up these traditional measures, making the economy appear better than it actually is. Also, many of the jobs Biden and his allies take credit for creating will quickly go away once it becomes clear that consumers don't actually want whatever the government encouraged these companies to produce.

On top of all that, the administration is dealing with the consequences of their chosen inflation rhetoric.

Since its peak in the summer of 2022, the president's team has talked about inflation "coming back down," which can easily give the impression that it's prices that will eventually come back down.

But that's not what that phrase means. It would be more honest to say that price increases are slowing down.

Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the cost of living will not return to prepandemic levels, and they're not happy about it.

The president has made some clumsy attempts at damage control, such as a Super Bowl Sunday video attacking food companies for "shrinkflation"—selling smaller portions at the same price instead of simply raising prices.

In his speech Thursday, Biden is expected to play up his desire to crack down on the "corporate greed" he's blaming for high prices.

In the name of "bringing down costs for Americans," the administration wants to implement targeted price ceilings - something anyone who has taken even a single economics class could tell you does more harm than good. Biden would never place the blame for the dramatic price increases we've experienced during his term where it actually belongs—on all the government spending that he and President Donald Trump oversaw during the pandemic, funded by the creation of $6 trillion out of thin air - because that kind of spending is precisely what he hopes to kick back up in a second term.

If reelected, the president wants to "revive" parts of his so-called Build Back Better agenda, which he tried and failed to pass in his first year. That would bring a significant expansion of domestic spending. And Biden remains committed to the idea that Americans must be forced to continue funding the war in Ukraine. That's another topic Biden is expected to highlight in the State of the Union, likely accompanied by the lie that Ukraine spending is good for the American economy. It isn't.

It's not possible to predict all the ways President Biden will exaggerate, mislead, and outright lie in his speech on Thursday. But we can be sure of two things. The "state of the Union" is not as strong as Biden will say it is. And his policy ambitions risk making it much worse.

*  *  *

The American people will be tuning in on their smartphones, laptops, and televisions on Thursday evening to see if 'sloppy joe' 81-year-old President Joe Biden can coherently put together more than two sentences (even with a teleprompter) as he gives his third State of the Union in front of a divided Congress. 

President Biden will speak on various topics to convince voters why he shouldn't be sent to a retirement home.

According to CNN sources, here are some of the topics Biden will discuss tonight:

  • Economic issues: Biden and his team have been drafting a speech heavy on economic populism, aides said, with calls for higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy – an attempt to draw a sharp contrast with Republicans and their likely presidential nominee, Donald Trump.

  • Health care expenses: Biden will also push for lowering health care costs and discuss his efforts to go after drug manufacturers to lower the cost of prescription medications — all issues his advisers believe can help buoy what have been sagging economic approval ratings.

  • Israel's war with Hamas: Also looming large over Biden's primetime address is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has consumed much of the president's time and attention over the past few months. The president's top national security advisers have been working around the clock to try to finalize a ceasefire-hostages release deal by Ramadan, the Muslim holy month that begins next week.

  • An argument for reelection: Aides view Thursday's speech as a critical opportunity for the president to tout his accomplishments in office and lay out his plans for another four years in the nation's top job. Even though viewership has declined over the years, the yearly speech reliably draws tens of millions of households.

Sources provided more color on Biden's SOTU address: 

The speech is expected to be heavy on economic populism. The president will talk about raising taxes on corporations and the wealthy. He'll highlight efforts to cut costs for the American people, including pushing Congress to help make prescription drugs more affordable.

Biden will talk about the need to preserve democracy and freedom, a cornerstone of his re-election bid. That includes protecting and bolstering reproductive rights, an issue Democrats believe will energize voters in November. Biden is also expected to promote his unity agenda, a key feature of each of his addresses to Congress while in office.

Biden is also expected to give remarks on border security while the invasion of illegals has become one of the most heated topics among American voters. A majority of voters are frustrated with radical progressives in the White House facilitating the illegal migrant invasion. 

It is probable that the president will attribute the failure of the Senate border bill to the Republicans, a claim many voters view as unfounded. This is because the White House has the option to issue an executive order to restore border security, yet opts not to do so

Maybe this is why? 

While Biden addresses the nation, the Biden administration will be armed with a social media team to pump propaganda to at least 100 million Americans. 

"The White House hosted about 70 creators, digital publishers, and influencers across three separate events" on Wednesday and Thursday, a White House official told CNN. 

Not a very capable social media team... 

The administration's move to ramp up social media operations comes as users on X are mostly free from government censorship with Elon Musk at the helm. This infuriates Democrats, who can no longer censor their political enemies on X. 

Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers tell Axios that the president's SOTU performance will be critical as he tries to dispel voter concerns about his elderly age. The address reached as many as 27 million people in 2023. 

"We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the president's "ability to speak without blowing things."

The SOTU address comes as Biden's polling data is in the dumps. 

BetOnline has created several money-making opportunities for gamblers tonight, such as betting on what word Biden mentions the most. 

As well as...

We will update you when Tucker Carlson's live feed of SOTU is published. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 07:44

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