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Why we need to rethink what we know about dust

New research reveals our understanding of dust’s role in the environment is far from settled.

Existing models have over-estimated the role of north Africa as the primary source of global dust emissions for nearly 30 years. GizemG/Shutterstock

You may think of dust as an annoyance to be vacuumed and disposed of, but actually, on a grander scale, it is far more important than most people realise. Globally, dust plays a critical role in regulating our climate, radiation balance, nutrient cycles, soil formation, air quality and even human health.

But our understanding of it has been hampered by limitations in current mathematical models. These models, built on methods developed decades ago, struggle to accurately simulate the properties and quantities of dust.

The latest research by my colleagues and I sheds light on these limitations and suggests a more nuanced picture of dust. Our findings reveal that dust emissions are not constant but shift seasonally and between hemispheres, across deserts and shrublands. This challenges the long-held notion that north Africa and the Middle East are the dominant sources of global dust.

Using two types of satellite data, our research suggests that dust emissions during dust storms are rare and localised, much like lightning strikes, and occur in constantly shifting locations.

Dust’s complexity

The cycle of dust emission, transport and deposition has positive and negative effects on our environment. Nutrients in deposited dust fertilise our oceans and rainforests. But dust from eroded sediment can also damage plants and trees and disrupt photosynthesis, while dust deposited on ice increases the speed at which it melts.

Variations in dust composition, like mineral type and colour, create a complex cocktail of particles injected into the atmosphere. This, in turn, interacts with clouds to influence how sunlight is reflected or absorbed, ultimately regulating Earth’s temperature.

So, it is vital we have an accurate understanding of where dust emissions are coming from, in what quantities, how dust is transported across the planet and where it ends up.

Dust emission models were developed nearly 30 years ago when there was far less data available. Consequently, those now classical dust cycle models made some assumptions. One important assumption was that Earth’s land surface was uniformly covered in perpetually loose and dry material, which was always available and caused dust emissions.

However, we now know from field measurements that soils are often crusted or covered in different types of gravel. The threshold for the wind to lift the soil and release it to the atmosphere was also assumed to be fixed and unchanging over time.

We also now know that sediment moves around the landscape and may not always be available. Vegetation covering the soil reduces the wind’s speed at reaching the soil surface, which then reduces dust emission. Dust models still assume that “greenness” indicates the presence of vegetation. However, in drylands where most dust emission happens, the vegetation is often brown, but its roughness still reduces the wind’s speed and shelters the soil from dust emission.

Consequently, classical dust cycle models have over-estimated the amount of dust emission. These weaknesses have remained since models were developed. This is mainly because modellers assume that by adjusting their dust cycle models to the measurements of dust in the atmosphere they overcome any weaknesses in the dust emission modelling.

A new approach

Almost a decade ago we developed a new approach using shadow to estimate how much of the wind’s speed is reduced by roughness, such as vegetation, on the Earth’s surface. This approach was still limited by the previous model assumptions described.

However, during the pandemic, traditional field studies became impossible. So, we adopted a new approach. Using satellites, we produced a global collection of dust emission points. This provided valuable data and paved the way for further research.

We found that existing models overestimated the role of north Africa as the primary source of global dust emissions. Our research shows that dust emissions shift seasonally and between hemispheres, from deserts in east Asia, the Middle East and north Africa as well as shrublands in Australia and North America.

Current models have only been providing a fraction of the story based on dust in the atmosphere above north Africa and the Middle East. Little dust emission was predicted to occur in the southern hemisphere. But this contrasts with field observations and the experiences of people in those regions.

A huge dust storm in Australia.

These new findings are crucial for large scale models because the properties of dust are different depending on where they come from. Not only that, but dust may change as it is transported within a hemisphere to different destinations where it settles on land, in our oceans and on icecaps.

Our new understanding of dust distribution, quantity and seasonal shifts has significant implications. It will require revisions to historical reconstructions that explain past climate changes. Our findings will also influence future climate projections and how the dust cycle interacts with the carbon, energy and water cycles of Earth’s systems.

Adrian Chappell receives funding from the UK Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC).

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Unravel: The Power and Politics of Textiles in Art – Barbican show reveals the medium’s subversive nature

Textiles have a deceptive simplicity that conceals their potential for subversion and political dissent.

Textile art is having a revival, as the artists on show at the Barbican exhibition, Unravel: The Power and Politics of Textiles in Art, attest.

The show is a comprehensive journey through the themes explored by artists utilising textiles as a medium. But it also invites deeper reflection on the societal shifts that have prompted a revival of the art form. Historically associated with femininity, domesticity and craft, textiles possess a deceptive simplicity that conceals their potential for subversion and political dissent.

The exhibition focuses on this subversive nature of textiles in contemporary art through works by artists including Feliciano Centurión. His delicate floral embroideries on modest blanket squares are accompanied by poignant stitched phrases such as “Soy alma en pena” (“I am a soul in pain”) and “Estoy vivo” (“I am alive”). These words express his battle with HIV and affirm his queer masculine identity.

Małgorzata Mirga-Tas’s collaged textile hanging, meanwhile, revises historical depictions of the Romani community. In doing so, the artist reclaims space for stories excluded from historical accounts. And Igshaan Adams’s immersive ethereal installation, crafted from beads and wire structures, prompts reflection on the collective opposition to artificially imposed borders in South Africa’s apartheid regime.

The changing landscape of exhibiting textiles

The exhibition also includes works by established figures such as Sheila Hicks and Magdalena Abakanowicz. Their works were displayed in the Wall Hangings exhibition at New York’s Museum of Modern Art in 1969, a pivotal show that legitimised the use of fibre within the realm of the fine arts.

Using unorthodox and found materials, female artists of this era departed from the European tapestry tradition. Their three-dimensional fibre structures both physically and metaphorically reclaimed space in an art world largely dominated by their male counterparts.

In the catalogue for the Barbican exhibition one of the curators, Lotte Johnson, remarks: “Back in 2020, we had collectively noted how textiles were proliferating across contemporary art practices.” This proliferation can be traced back to recent societal changes, as well as the instrumental role of cultural intermediaries including museums and private galleries.

Social movements like #MeToo and Black Lives Matter have highlighted the need to tell a more inclusive history of art and acknowledge the contributions of women, people of colour and indigenous artists who have been overlooked in traditional accounts.

Further, the global spread of biennials and fairs, along with increase mobility of curators, has contributed greater visibility of artists from countries such as Africa and South America. Their practices often employ textiles and recycled elements, transcending the European dichotomy between art and craft.

The consumer demand for handmade textile items – a trend in response to an increasingly digitised society – has also played a role in the renewed appreciation for textile-based art. Additionally, movements associated with environmentalism and third-wave feminism have embraced traditionally domestic practices such as knitting and crocheting. These enjoyed further popularity during the COVID pandemic as a stress-coping mechanism.

Museums have been pivotal in endorsing the revival of textiles. And the increased prevalence of women in positions of power at cultural institutions is partly why. The retrospective on Anni Albers at the Tate Modern in 2018, for example, is much-cited as a show that put the spotlight back on textiles. The show was supported by the appointments of Frances Morris as director of Tate Modern in 2016 and Maria Balshaw as director of Tate the following year.

Additionally, a new generation of curators are shaping curatorial programmes to include a more diverse range of artistic practices. These curators were educated by feminist art history scholars such as Griselda Pollock and have now moved into influential roles within prominent art institutions.

Interest in textiles is also gaining momentum within the private art sector. According to the art market database Artprice, textile works generated US$40 million (£31.6m) in 2022, a significant increase from $13 million in 2012.

Private galleries are exerting a growing influence on the art world, and have contributed significantly to the visibility of fibre art and textiles. Last October, the private gallery Alison Jacques opened a new space in London with a solo show on Sheila Hicks. At the Brafa art fair in Brussels in January 2024, Richard Saltoun showcased Textile Pioneers, which exhibited works by Barbara Levittoux-Świderska and Magdalena Abakanowicz, among others.

While the promotion of female textile artists is certainly a welcome shift towards a more inclusive representation of historical artistic contributions, the private sector’s commercial considerations cannot be overlooked. Female artists have been defined as “the bargain of our time”, and textile works are an affordable purchase for underfunded institutions and collectors who cannot afford works by male artists from the same period.

Moreover, the practicality of textiles, being easier to transport and install compared to paintings, further enhances their appeal to galleries.

The resurgence of textiles in contemporary art provides a vital opportunity for conversation and revision within both the art world and society at large. It also highlights the complex interplay of cultural intermediaries who juggle idealistic efforts and pragmatic commercial interests.

Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

Francesca Stocco does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Spread & Containment

“They Will Surely Try To Run The ‘Disease X’ Ruse” Ahead Of 2024 Elections

"They Will Surely Try To Run The ‘Disease X’ Ruse" Ahead Of 2024 Elections

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via,

This Is Not…



"They Will Surely Try To Run The 'Disease X' Ruse" Ahead Of 2024 Elections

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via,

This Is Not An April Fool's Gag

“I’m sorry for the harsh message, but somebody needs to tell the truth,” virologist Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche

Did you have a fabulous Transgender Visibility Day, uncluttered with any loose talk about one Jesus Christ and his travails in the Roman Levant some 2000 years ago?

The Easter Bunny desisted from twerking on the White House lawn this time around, but the Party of Chaos still nailed down the vote of the .000429 percent of the population that identifies as opposite the clerical error made upon their sexual assignment at birth.

All in all, this may be the last grotesque frivolity the political class indulges in for a long time to come, and I’ll you why.

I had the honor of interviewing the Belgian virologist Geert Vanden Bossche on Friday for my podcast, and he had quite a sobering message.

“What I am predicting,” he said, “is a massive, massive tsunami” of illness and death among highly-vaccinated populations with dysregulated immune systems.

“You commit errors or even crimes at the very small scale, you can hide them,” he said (at around 47:00 minutes into the hour-long discussion).

“I have seen this happen with the Ebola vaccination with Africa a number of years ago. . . . However, if you do this at the very large scale, like what has happened with this mass [Covid] vaccination campaign, the truth will surface. And those who have committed these crimes who have been lying to the people, who have not been taking care of the health and safety of the people, will be severely, severely punished. . . . If these people would now go out and say, ‘Yeah, wait a minute, we have been making some mistakes, it wasn’t all right, we have to correct them, we have to revise our opinion,’ these people will be stoned in the streets. . . . They can only hope that something will happen that will distract from this issue, but it won’t. . . . The truth will surface: this has been a large-scale experiment of gain-of-function on the very human population. This will be something that will be reported in history for many many generations to come.”

A bit further on (around 55:20 minutes) he says, “You will see what will happen, for example, in the next coming weeks. . . is more and more cases of more serious long Covid..."

"They will start to replace the surge of the cancers. . . now we have a more chronic phase. It will end with a hyper-acute phase, a huge, huge wave. . . I’ve been studying this now for four years. I know what I’m talking about.

I’m probably the only person, in all modesty, who understands the immunology behind this. . . ."

(At 1:00:12) "The thing I want your audience to understand, what we will be facing in the hyper-acute Covid crisis that is imminent, is that we will have to build a completely new world. . . ."

"It is very very clear that when this starts, our hospitals will collapse. And that means the chaos in all kinds of layers of society — financial, economic, social, you name it — will be complete. And that is what I’m very clearly predicting. . . .

It’s very strange for me to make such statements, but I’m not hiding it because I’m two hundred percent convinced that it will happen.”

Now that you’ve had an ice-cold shower, consider some further implications of this scenario.

One is that the government and its public health officials may try to attribute the blame for this to the “Disease X” story they’ve been peddling for about a year, the “next pandemic,” something entirely new.

That will not be true. They will be trying to cover their asses. Rather, this next episode will be the result of the epic blunders they already made, beginning in 2020, with the emergence of Covid-19. The variant that causes the coming hyper-acute crisis will be quite different from the original “Wuhan” strain, but it will be a direct descendent of it, having mutated in the bodies of the vaccinated. It was, after all, Dr. Vanden Bossche who declared at the outset of the Covid melodrama in 2021 that vaccinating into the teeth of an ongoing pandemic disease was absolutely the wrong strategy from an immunological point-of-view, and sure to produce a grievous outcome.

What, if anything, can you do to prepare for this? Dr. Vanden Bossche is also very clear:

What I can advise. . . to all these vaccinated people: they need to avoid reinfection. It is the reinfection of vaccinated people that is responsible for this situation. . . . Well, the only thing they can do — it’s very simple — is take anti-virals, of course. The only difference is, you will not be able to wait to take anti-virals until you have symptoms. . . .

As soon as people see that in one of the other countries, or one of the other states in the United States, when this starts with hospitalizations going up very rapidly, they need to take anti-virals prophylactically, not wait until they have any symptoms. I’m in Belgium. If it starts in the US, or starts in Israel, or starts in the UK, I bet you that within a few days, you will see the same scenario in many of the highly-vaccinated countries.”

By “anti-virals,” Dr. Vanden Bossche means specifically Ivermectin, the Nobel Prize-winning drug that the FDA and the CDC demonized brutally in order to distract the public from knowing that there was a safe and effective treatment for Covid. To acknowledge that would have vacated Pfizer’s and Moderna’s Emergency Use Authorization, which allowed them to make tens of billions of dollars on a very poorly tested pharma product while enjoying blanket protection against lawsuits.

“I have been predicting already a half a year ago, that the public health authorities are finally going to have mandates for ivermectin.” Dr. Vanden Bossche said.

“The results with ivermectin are fabulous. It is very safe. It is the only anti-viral that is cost-effective, that is widely available, that can be supplemented in sufficient quantities. . . . There is simply no alternative.”

Note that just last week, as a result of a lawsuit brought in the Texas Southern District federal court, the FDA agreed to finally take down the social media messages it had put up to lawlessly block the use of ivermectin. Remember the mocking tweet: “You’re not a horse, you’re not a cow, come on y’all.” The truth was that the FDA had no authority to tell doctors how to practice medicine; nor to block FDA-approved drugs (including ivermectin), even for off-label treatments. Off-label treatment with approved drugs is routine in medicine. Instead of ivermectin, US public health officials pushed the use of unsafe remdesivir with intubation, resulting in many thousands of avoidable deaths. This is only one of the crimes they will have to answer for.

If Dr. Vanden Bossche’s scenario comes to pass, the “hyper-acute Covid crisis” will intersect with the elections of 2024, and not just in the USA.

You would naturally expect some extreme despotic hysterics out of the “Joe Biden” government.

They will surely try to run their “Disease X” ruse. But they have already lost the trust of the people they made war against in their own country. In which case, expect resistance among the un-sick. No more trips will be laid on us.

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/01/2024 - 16:20

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Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Powell, ISM And Fed Speakers Galore

Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Powell, ISM And Fed Speakers Galore

With the first quarter officially in the books, and just days until we…



Key Events This Week: Payrolls, Powell, ISM And Fed Speakers Galore

With the first quarter officially in the books, and just days until we start getting Q1 earnings (it sure does feel like we now live in one extra long earnings season), we have quite a few events this busy week starting with today's March manufacturing ISM print - which as noted earlier printed at 50.3, up from 47.8, above the 48.3 consensus and the first print above the 50 threshold reading since September 2022 (sparking a selloff in Treasuries and pushing the USD lower). Beyond today we get lots of Fed Speak (at least 8 speakers on deck including Jerome Powell), Friday's Payrolls, Euro Zone CPI and OPEC+ EURA.

The flood of scheduled Fed speakers will likely set the tone for the new quarter and month, including appearances from Chair Jerome Powell (who also spoke on Friday reiterating his previous non-committal comments) and the incoming St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem. The US jobs report due on Friday needs no introduction while the ISM surveys are also worth watching for an update on the health of the US economy.

The March jobs report (Apr 5) will be the main focus in the coming week. Consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 200k (vs. 275k in February). One of the reasons BofA is calling for a slowdown in job growth is that payrolls in the month of March have shown a tendency to be weak relative to February in recent years. For a similar reason, the bank is expecting private payrolls to slow from +223k in February to a below-consensus +150k in March. Average hourly earnings (AHE), meanwhile, are likely to rise by 0.3% m/m or 4.1% y/y. The quits rate and posted wage growth from Indeed point to a moderation in y/y rates for AHE. Average weekly hours should increase by a tenth to 34.4.

On the household (HH) survey side, BofA expects the unemployment rate (u-rate) to remain at 3.9%. But the HH employment data have been much weaker than NFP in recent months. This means we could see some payback – e.g. stronger HH employment growth than NFP and a lower u-rate. But if the divergence continues, there is risk of a higher u-rate. Also, expect the labor force participation rate to recover by a tenth to 62.6%. This is because BofA expects a rebound in the 16-24 years category, which declined by 0.4ppt in February

In Europe, consumer price data from the euro area should help shape interest-rate cut expectations with traders close to fully pricing in a 25 basis point European Central Bank reduction in June. Swiss inflation will also garner some interest after the surprise rate cut by the Swiss National Bank last week.

The OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee will meet on Wednesday although delegates see no need to recommend any changes to oil supply policy.

Here is a day by day analysis of key global events, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Monday, April 1

  • China Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • US ISM manufacturing and construction spending
  • Fed’s Cook speaks

Tuesday, April 2

  • RBA minutes
  • German CPI
  • ECB consumer expectations survey
  • US factory orders and JOLTS
  • Fed’s Bowman, Williams, Mester and Daly
  • Chile central bank rate decision

Wednesday, April 3

  • China Caixin service PMI
  • Euro zone CPI and unemployment rate
  • US ADP employment change and ISM services
  • Fed’s Powell, Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee and Kugler
  • OPEC+ JMMC meeting

Thursday, April 4

  • Swiss CPI
  • Euro zone PPI
  • ECB minutes
  • BOE decision maker panel survey
  • US initial jobless claims and trade balance
  • Fed’s Harker, Goolsbee, Barkin, Mester and Musalem

Friday, April 5

  • German factory orders
  • Euro zone retail sales
  • US nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings
  • Canada employment change and unemployment rate
  • Fed’s Bowman, Logan, Barkin and Kugler

* * *

Focusing just on the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the ISM manufacturing report on Monday, the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, the ISM services report on Wednesday, and the employment situation report on Friday. There are many speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Powell on Wednesday.

Monday, April 1

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, March final (Bloomberg consensus 52.5, last 52.5)
  • 10:00 AM Construction spending, February (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.7%, last -0.2%)
  • 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing index, March (GS 49.1, consensus 48.4, last 47.8): We estimate the ISM manufacturing index rebounded 1.3pt to 49.1 in March, reflecting the rebound in global manufacturing activity.
  • 06:50 PM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will give acceptance remarks at the Lifetime Achievement Awards Ceremony held by the Cook Center at Duke University in Washington, DC. Speech text will be made available. On March 25th, Cook said that “the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. Nonetheless, fully restoring price stability may take a cautious approach to easing monetary policy over time.”

Tuesday, April 2

  • 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, February (GS 8,650k, consensus 8,775k, last 8,863k): We estimate that JOLTS job openings fell by 0.2mn to 8.65mn in February, reflecting the pullback in online job postings.
  • 10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.0%, last -3.6%); Durable goods orders, February final (consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last +0.7%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last -0.4%)
  • 10:10 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on “Bank Mergers and Acquisitions, and De Novo Bank Formation: Implications for the Future of the Banking System” at a virtual event. Speech text will be made available. On February 27th, Bowman noted that, “should the incoming data continue to indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower our policy rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive. In my view, we are not yet at that point.”
  • 12:00 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will moderate a discussion at the Economic Club of New York with Jeremy Siegel, professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. On February 28th, Williams said that “something like three [fed funds] rate cuts is a reasonable starting point” for 2024. President Williams also noted that “the risks to my forecast are two sided. Inflation may surprise to the upside, or consumer strength may fade more quickly than I anticipate.”
  • 12:05 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give remarks on the economic outlook at the Cleveland Association for Business Economics and Team NEO Luncheon. A moderated Q&A is expected. On February 29th, Mester said that three rate cuts “feel about right to me if the economy evolves as I anticipate it will.”
  • 01:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a Southern Nevada fireside chat, followed by a moderated Q&A. On February 29th, Daly said that “It would be appropriate as inflation comes down to bring the nominal rate of interest down to make sure we’re not holding on even tighter. We want to avoid holding on all the way to 2%, putting policy very tight and then cause an unnecessary downturn.”
  • 05:00 PM Lightweight motor vehicle sales, March (GS 16.1mn, consensus 15.9mn, last 15.8mn)

Wednesday, April 3

  • 08:15 AM ADP employment change, March (GS +120k, consensus +150k, last +140k): We estimate a 120k rise in ADP payroll employment in March, reflecting a solid underlying pace of job growth but a drag from residual seasonality: the ADP measure has slowed in March in each of the last three years and four of the last six.
  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, March final (consensus 51.7, last 51.7)
  • 09:45 AM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on Bank Liquidity, Regulation and the Fed’s Role as the Lender of Last Resort in Washington, DC. Speech text will be made available.
  • 10:00 AM ISM services index, March (GS 53.6, consensus 52.8, last 52.6): We estimate that the ISM services index rose 1.0pt to 53.6 in March, reflecting solid growth and favorable seasonality. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker edged up 0.1pt to 52.1.
  • 12:00 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give opening remarks at the virtual event “Preventing Elder Financial Exploitation: Research, Policies and Strategies.” On March 25th, Goolsbee said that he expected three rate cuts this year and noted that “we are in this murky period where we have to strike a balance of the dual mandate.”
  • 12:10 PM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Stanford Business, Government, and Society Forum. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 29th, Powell said that that February PCE inflation data “were pretty much in-line with our expectations” and the committee is looking to see “more good inflation readings like the ones we were getting last year” to feel “confident that inflation is moving down to 2% on a sustained basis.” Powell also noted that he doesn’t think interest rates will go back down to the very low levels they were before the pandemic, but exactly where they will settle is “hard to say.”
  • 01:10 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will speak about the Community Reinvestment Act in Washington, DC. A moderated Q&A is expected. On February 14th, Barr said that “my FOMC colleagues and I are confident we are on a path to 2% inflation, but we need to see continued good data before we can begin the process of reducing the federal funds rate.”
  • 04:30 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak on the "Outlook for the US Economy and Monetary Policy" in St. Louis. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 1st, Kugler said “I am cautiously optimistic that we will see continued progress on disinflation without significant deterioration of the labor market.”

Thursday, April 4

  • 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$68.3bn, consensus -$67.0bn, last -$67.4bn)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 30 (GS 205k, consensus 215k, last 210k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 23 (consensus 1,810k, last 1,819k)
  • 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will participate in a fireside chat about second chance employment. A Q&A is expected. On February 22nd, Harker said “I believe we may be in the position to see the rate decrease this year. But I would caution anyone from looking for it right now and right away. We have time to get this right, as we must.”
  • 12:15 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech on his economic outlook to the Home Building Association of Richmond. Speech text and Q&A are expected. On March 1st, Barkin said “I'm still hopeful inflation is going to come down and if inflation normalizes then it makes the case for why you want to normalize rates, but to me it starts with inflation.”
  • 12:45 PM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at the Multi-Chamber Economic Outlook Luncheon and Expo.
  • 02:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on the economic outlook in a virtual event. A Q&A is expected.
  • 07:20 PM St. Louis Fed President Musalem (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give introductory remarks at the 2024 Women in Economics Symposium. This is Musalem’s first public appearance since he was named the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on January 4th 2024.
  • 07:30 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will speak on enriching data and analysis with real life experiences. Speech text will be made available.

Friday, April 5

  • 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +215k, consensus +200k, last +275k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +175k, consensus +165k, last +223k); Average hourly earnings (mom), March (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), March (GS +4.04%, consensus +4.1%, last +4.3%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 3.8%, consensus 3.8%, last 3.9%); Labor force participation rate, March (GS 62.5%, consensus 62.5%, last 62.5%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 215k in March (mom sa), reflecting a continued boost from above-normal immigration as new entrants to the labor force are matched to open positions. Big Data measures also generally indicate a solid or strong pace of job gains, and our layoff tracker indicates that the pace of layoffs remains low. We nonetheless assume a slowdown from the February payroll gain of +275k because we believe a favorable swing in the weather boosted that report by as much as 75k. We estimate that the unemployment rate fell one tenth to 3.8%. Foreign-born unemployment increased by nearly 250k over the last three months, and we assume many of the new entrants found jobs during the March payroll month. We assume a flat-to-up labor force participation rate of 62.5%. We estimate average hourly earnings rose 0.25% (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by three tenths to 4.0%, reflecting waning wage pressures but a roughly 5bp boost from calendar effects (mom sa).
  • 09:15 AM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver a speech on economic outlook. Speech text and Q&A are expected.
  • 11:00 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak at an event hosted by the Duke University Economics Department. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On March 1st, Logan said “slower [balance sheet] runoff is a way to approach the ample point more gradually, allowing banks to redistribute funds and the FOMC to carefully judge when we have gone far enough. This strategy will mitigate the risk of undesired liquidity stresses from QT.”
  • 12:15 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak on the "Risks and Uncertainty in Monetary Policy: Current & Past Considerations" at the Shadow Open Market Committee spring meeting in New York. Speech text and Q&A are expected.

Source: BBG, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/01/2024 - 11:10

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