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Why is the U.S. Debt Expected to Keep Growing?

The Issue:
The United States Federal debt is the subject of ongoing concern and, during negotiations over lifting the debt ceiling, a source of political…

Published

9 months ago

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The Issue:

The United States Federal debt is the subject of ongoing concern and, during negotiations over lifting the debt ceiling, a source of political friction. Current debt levels are higher than at any time since the end of World War II. The Federal government debt in the hands of the public was 96.9 percent of Gross Domestic Product at the end of 2022, somewhat lower than it was at the end of 2021, but well above the 79.2 percent of GDP at the end of 2019, before the pandemic. Other economies similarly have seen spikes in public debt relative to GDP since the beginning of 2020, when the worldwide COVID pandemic led to rising public-sector deficits and slower economic growth. Despite the high-stakes negotiations around the debt ceiling, the U.S. Federal debt relative to GDP is projected to continue growing over the next decade. What factors account for this projection and why does it matter?

The Facts:

  • There are two main costs of a higher public debt. First, the government must pay additional interest on its debt, which may require it to raise taxes or cut expenditure programs. Second, if the economy’s saving flows into government debt, less is available to finance accumulation of possibly more productive capital assets, such as machinery, factories, and intellectual property. The level of publicly held debt as a fraction of GDP is a key ratio because the costs of any debt level are less important when the economy is larger. For a given level of debt, costs become less important as the economy grows because growth raises both the tax base and the flow of private saving. Conversely, a rising ratio of debt to GDP could signal lower economic growth. Historically, excessive debt-GDP ratios have sometimes led to financial crises in which governments may default on their debts, either through changes in repayment terms or through unexpected inflation. The government publishes statistics on its total gross debt and the portion that is publicly held. While the former is used in determining whether the government has exceeded its debt ceiling, and is often cited by the public (for example, in the U.S. Debt Clock), this includes money the government owes itself. The publicly held Federal debt is, therefore, the more relevant measure. (The figure presents data on gross debt and publicly held debt from 1940 to 2022.)
  • The U.S. national debt is projected to exceed 100 percent of GDP in the next year or two. The rate at which the debt grows relative to GDP depends partly on fiscal policies, inflation, and real GDP growth. Nominal GDP is the denominator in the debt-GDP ratio, so when it goes up, either through real growth or inflation, the ratio of government debt (measured in dollars) to GDP falls. But GDP growth also influences the debt-GDP ratio through its effect on the government’s deficit. A government issues additional debt when its net revenue does not fully cover its outlays and the interest it owes on existing debt, creating a deficit. When the economy suffers a downturn, government borrowing normally rises owing to reduced tax revenue, higher automatic outlays on social safety net programs like unemployment insurance, as well as new discretionary spending and tax measures to support the economy. In turn, higher deficits make government debt rise more quickly. Then, as the economy recovers, deficits tend to fall, reducing the pace of increase in government debt. For example, the Federal budget deficit tripled from $983.6 billion (4.6 percent of GDP) in 2019 to $3,129 billion in 2020 (14.9 percent of GDP) during the sharp COVID recession, according to data from the non-partisan Tax Policy Center. As the economy recovered, the deficit fell to $2,775 billion in 2021 (12.4 percent of GDP). These deficits have added to the Federal debt and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts debt held by the public to grow even more over the coming years, to 100.4 percent of GDP in 2024 and 108.9 percent of GDP five years after that (see Table 1, in the 10-year Budget Projections report for May 2023).
  • How has the United States brought down its debt-GDP ratio in the past after wars and national emergencies? The sharpest increases in debt-GDP ratios have historically occurred during national emergencies, notably wars, but these ratios have tended to fall rapidly thereafter.  The rise in debt during World War II was especially dramatic, but the subsequent reduction in debt-to-GDP also was very rapid, with the ratio falling from 106 percent in 1946 to only 51 percent ten years later (and to a low point of 23 percent by 1974). That development owed to lower primary deficits, but also to a rate of nominal GDP growth that persistently outstripped the interest rates the U.S. Treasury had to pay. Between 1946 and 1974, nominal GDP grew at an annual average rate of 6.9 percent per year, whereas the average of long-term Treasury interest rates over this period (which generally exceeded short-term rates) was 4.05 percent.
  • A permanently higher debt-GDP ratio after recovery could pose risks. The United States is open to foreign capital inflows. Given the high foreign demand for Treasury debt, the effect of higher U.S. public debt by itself on the cost of domestic capital investment would be somewhat muted by more foreign purchases. However, other economies have also been running big fiscal deficits, and collectively, the United States and other countries could exert stronger upward pressure on government borrowing rates. This process will be strengthened as, additionally, central banks raise interest rates to fight inflation and reduce their balance sheets by selling government bonds. The most recent IMF Fiscal Monitor, from April 2023, points out that fiscal retrenchment can support monetary policy in the effort to bring down inflation, but warns that this would involve difficult policy choices about which budget items to cut in order to minimize harm to vulnerable populations. For example, in the United States, safety net programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program have been targeted by some in Congress even though they represent a relatively small part of the overall Federal budget and are far less important than entitlement programs such as Medicare for future long-term sustainability.

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

Published

11 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

“When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

“It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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Government

Walmart joins Costco in sharing key pricing news

The massive retailers have both shared information that some retailers keep very close to the vest.

Published

13 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters. 

The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.

The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.

Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing

It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.

You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.

Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.

However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.

Walmart has seen inflation drop in many key areas.

Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Walmart sees lower prices

McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.

During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.

"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.

He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.

"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."

McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.

"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.

Costco sees almost no inflation impact

McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco  (COST)  Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.

The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.

"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.

Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.

"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.

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Walmart has really good news for shoppers (and Joe Biden)

The giant retailer joins Costco in making a statement that has political overtones, even if that’s not the intent.

Published

14 hours ago

on

March 9, 2024

By

As we head toward a presidential election, the presumed candidates for both parties will look for issues that rally undecided voters. 

The economy will be a key issue, with Democrats pointing to job creation and lowering prices while Republicans will cite the layoffs at Big Tech companies, high housing prices, and of course, sticky inflation.

The covid pandemic created a perfect storm for inflation and higher prices. It became harder to get many items because people getting sick slowed down, or even stopped, production at some factories.

Related: Popular mall retailer shuts down abruptly after bankruptcy filing

It was also a period where demand increased while shipping, trucking and delivery systems were all strained or thrown out of whack. The combination led to product shortages and higher prices.

You might have gone to the grocery store and not been able to buy your favorite paper towel brand or find toilet paper at all. That happened partly because of the supply chain and partly due to increased demand, but at the end of the day, it led to higher prices, which some consumers blamed on President Joe Biden's administration.

Biden, of course, was blamed for the price increases, but as inflation has dropped and grocery prices have fallen, few companies have been up front about it. That's probably not a political choice in most cases. Instead, some companies have chosen to lower prices more slowly than they raised them.

However, two major retailers, Walmart (WMT) and Costco, have been very honest about inflation. Walmart Chief Executive Doug McMillon's most recent comments validate what Biden's administration has been saying about the state of the economy. And they contrast with the economic picture being painted by Republicans who support their presumptive nominee, Donald Trump.

Walmart has seen inflation drop in many key areas.

Image source: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Walmart sees lower prices

McMillon does not talk about lower prices to make a political statement. He's communicating with customers and potential customers through the analysts who cover the company's quarterly-earnings calls.

During Walmart's fiscal-fourth-quarter-earnings call, McMillon was clear that prices are going down.

"I'm excited about the omnichannel net promoter score trends the team is driving. Across countries, we continue to see a customer that's resilient but looking for value. As always, we're working hard to deliver that for them, including through our rollbacks on food pricing in Walmart U.S. Those were up significantly in Q4 versus last year, following a big increase in Q3," he said.

He was specific about where the chain has seen prices go down.

"Our general merchandise prices are lower than a year ago and even two years ago in some categories, which means our customers are finding value in areas like apparel and hard lines," he said. "In food, prices are lower than a year ago in places like eggs, apples, and deli snacks, but higher in other places like asparagus and blackberries."

McMillon said that in other areas prices were still up but have been falling.

"Dry grocery and consumables categories like paper goods and cleaning supplies are up mid-single digits versus last year and high teens versus two years ago. Private-brand penetration is up in many of the countries where we operate, including the United States," he said.

Costco sees almost no inflation impact

McMillon avoided the word inflation in his comments. Costco  (COST)  Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti, who steps down on March 15, has been very transparent on the topic.

The CFO commented on inflation during his company's fiscal-first-quarter-earnings call.

"Most recently, in the last fourth-quarter discussion, we had estimated that year-over-year inflation was in the 1% to 2% range. Our estimate for the quarter just ended, that inflation was in the 0% to 1% range," he said.

Galanti made clear that inflation (and even deflation) varied by category.

"A bigger deflation in some big and bulky items like furniture sets due to lower freight costs year over year, as well as on things like domestics, bulky lower-priced items, again, where the freight cost is significant. Some deflationary items were as much as 20% to 30% and, again, mostly freight-related," he added.

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