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What Happened To The ‘Bring Everything Back’ Function?

The good news, such that it might be, is that the BLS – using data from the Census Bureau – believes that the American population is slowing down. According to the latest Civilian Non-institutional population estimates for January 2021, published alongsid

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The good news, such that it might be, is that the BLS – using data from the Census Bureau – believes that the American population is slowing down. According to the latest Civilian Non-institutional population estimates for January 2021, published alongside the current payroll report, the count was adjusted downward by around 400,000 consistent with the same kind and level revisions of the prior couple years.

Demographic trends like this aren’t normally taken for a positive. But with fewer new Americans, the struggling economy won’t have to create as many new jobs to keep them gainfully employed and out of the streets. As it is now, forgetting the 10 million who lost jobs last year and didn’t get them back, as politicians and Economists alike tend to do, the labor market isn’t even keeping up with reduced population expansion.




The tally of payrolls which didn’t happen is creeping upward so as to become as much of a depressing prospect as the ongoing count for those which have yet to come back. Assuming a very conservative rate of +163,000, the average from the eighteen months of slowing growth previous to COVID, which would still be just short of enough to absorb new potential entrants anyway, going back to February last year there’s at the very least 1.8 million jobs which never had the chance.

A more realistic number would be above 2 million.

Closing in on a year since the shock, there are now three labor pools to consider inside all these employment numbers; the two we’ve been expressing since it started – 1. Those who still otherwise had jobs but couldn’t work at them, and have long since gone back; 2. Those who lost jobs and have no work to go back to – and now a third that includes the several million who would’ve become employed workers except no work materialized from which to engage them.

It all adds up to an entirely too familiar situation – job “growth” in name only. In truth, the economy is falling farther and further behind.

The latest payrolls estimate for the month of January 2021 ended up being on the plus side, if barely, which, given the totality of the current situation, doesn’t really matter. The headline statistical change was +49,000 following a downwardly revised -227,000 in December. Private payrolls increased by just 6,000.

A small plus, a decent minus, something in between, these are all the same because the dominant factor right now is time. Eleven months in and we’ve experienced a condition for workers, particularly at the lower ends of the income scale, substantially worse than the Great “Recession.” And with the last seven those at increasingly decelerating gains, the economy overall appears stuck here no matter what happens.




Many, maybe most, are thinking and betting that this just won’t matter. Sure, it’s awful and painful for those going through it, but another thirteen-digit government intervention will right this wrong, and along with a smooth, efficient-running vaccination program it will all add up to normality mere months ahead. Bad today, all better tomorrow, not worth bothering about in the meantime.

If that’s the narrative, then American workers just aren’t buying it like many markets – including those in the Treasury market who shorted the long end hard not long after the BLS report was released this morning. Stocks are at record highs while the labor force shrunk yet again (though some of this month’s 406,000 decline is related to the population estimate discontinuity mentioned above).



The Labor Force Participation Rate (which includes the Civilian Non-institutional population in its denominator) dropped back to 61.4% in January – the same as in June last year. Going back to the previous February, the labor force contains somewhere around 4 million fewer Americans who have given up even looking for work because, given the trend, can you really blame them (corroborated by the continued decline in revolving consumer credit now extended into December)?

However, those 4 million who have come out the labor force also have to come out of the section of the labor force categorized as “unemployed.” Technically, they are neither employed nor unemployed. The net result is, as had been the case for years before COVID, an unemployment rate which keeps improving even though, by every other account, the labor market is doing no such thing.




This isn’t to say the economy is in re-recession, but at this point that’s splitting hairs; everyone already got hit with recession, remain stuck fast within it, so the issue is getting ourselves out of it before long run damage, substantial, harmful, and irreversible loss to potential, is done. That’s where the time factor comes in.

And it’s not a new one – at least in 2021. When the horrifying prospect of significant long-term employment came up in 2010, 2011, persisting into 2012 and beyond, this had been an entirely new phenomenon. Ben Bernanke said QE was working, though he had to repeat the thing four times, the US, the Fed’s models claimed, was always just on the cusp of full recovery.

Yet (from 2010):

The U.S. labor market historically has been characterized by relatively short unemployment durations for an average worker. The high level of long-term unemployment we are currently seeing represents a sharp break with previous experiences. In the past, most job losses led to only short unemployment spells, as the labor market was able to quickly absorb newly unemployed workers into employment relationships. [emphasis added]



While not said much publicly, even Federal Reserve-underwritten scholarship was clear as to why this serious structural change had taken place (from 2013):

Recent research shows evidence of a modest increase in U.S. structural unemployment since the recession (see, for example, Daly et al. 2012, Elsby et al. 2011). However, this research also suggests that the primary explanation for historically high long-term unemployment is the persistent weakness in overall economic activity and demand for labor.

These two things become self-reinforcing and form one prong of the continuous deflationary anchor; though the R* crowd leaves out the first half of the process. In other words, skills erode, bad habits develop (leading to drug abuse and suicide), increasing lack of risk-taking, etc., which R* immediately blames on lazy former American workers when their own studies show such “laziness” came about first because the economy wasn’t nearly recovering enough to bring them right back into the fold as it had every other time during the six and a half decades before 2007 of the post-war, offshore dollar-expansion era.

The labor market didn’t spoil; it was left to rot by the ineffectiveness of policy responses to cure the underlying, unexamined issue which had actually broken the trend (permanent shock).

“Something” was very different about specifically 2008; a shrinking labor force was a new “thing” which began, poignantly, in October of that same year. If only we could figure out what was profound about that particular month. After all, Ben Bernanke was a hero and saved the world (and millions of jobs), so it must’ve been something else (sorry for the heavy sarcasm).

And now, as the months pass, the increasing certainty that it’s happening again.


One last thing to keep in mind is that while this a-historical structural unemployment arose and kept going a decade ago, it was supposedly “fixed” time and time again by what we were all told was going to be massive, unbelievably powerful fiscal and monetary “stimulus.” When it wasn’t fixed, they blamed us.

Bigger numbers today, sure, but here we are once again in 2021 with what’s being claimed as massive, unbelievably powerful fiscal and monetary “stimulus” offered a second time following 2020’s massive, unbelievably powerful “stimulus” which, by the American worker, left us with the same structural employment problems initially delivered by October 2008’s drastic shock. 

It was supposed to have been easy; turn the economy off, turn it right back on. Beginning 2021, we already know that wasn’t the case. Is it because ongoing COVID, itself a one-off shock meaning the pandemic will eventually run its course? Maybe the end of it this year will bring everything back. Or, since we more and more see the pattern repeating, is the “bring everything back” function of the post-2008 economy still broken? I’d say time will tell, and it will, but time is the problem. 

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now…

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The Coming Of The Police State In America

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The National Guard and the State Police are now patrolling the New York City subway system in an attempt to do something about the explosion of crime. As part of this, there are bag checks and new surveillance of all passengers. No legislation, no debate, just an edict from the mayor.

Many citizens who rely on this system for transportation might welcome this. It’s a city of strict gun control, and no one knows for sure if they have the right to defend themselves. Merchants have been harassed and even arrested for trying to stop looting and pillaging in their own shops.

The message has been sent: Only the police can do this job. Whether they do it or not is another matter.

Things on the subway system have gotten crazy. If you know it well, you can manage to travel safely, but visitors to the city who take the wrong train at the wrong time are taking grave risks.

In actual fact, it’s guaranteed that this will only end in confiscating knives and other things that people carry in order to protect themselves while leaving the actual criminals even more free to prey on citizens.

The law-abiding will suffer and the criminals will grow more numerous. It will not end well.

When you step back from the details, what we have is the dawning of a genuine police state in the United States. It only starts in New York City. Where is the Guard going to be deployed next? Anywhere is possible.

If the crime is bad enough, citizens will welcome it. It must have been this way in most times and places that when the police state arrives, the people cheer.

We will all have our own stories of how this came to be. Some might begin with the passage of the Patriot Act and the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security in 2001. Some will focus on gun control and the taking away of citizens’ rights to defend themselves.

My own version of events is closer in time. It began four years ago this month with lockdowns. That’s what shattered the capacity of civil society to function in the United States. Everything that has happened since follows like one domino tumbling after another.

It goes like this:

1) lockdown,

2) loss of moral compass and spreading of loneliness and nihilism,

3) rioting resulting from citizen frustration, 4) police absent because of ideological hectoring,

5) a rise in uncontrolled immigration/refugees,

6) an epidemic of ill health from substance abuse and otherwise,

7) businesses flee the city

8) cities fall into decay, and that results in

9) more surveillance and police state.

The 10th stage is the sacking of liberty and civilization itself.

It doesn’t fall out this way at every point in history, but this seems like a solid outline of what happened in this case. Four years is a very short period of time to see all of this unfold. But it is a fact that New York City was more-or-less civilized only four years ago. No one could have predicted that it would come to this so quickly.

But once the lockdowns happened, all bets were off. Here we had a policy that most directly trampled on all freedoms that we had taken for granted. Schools, businesses, and churches were slammed shut, with various levels of enforcement. The entire workforce was divided between essential and nonessential, and there was widespread confusion about who precisely was in charge of designating and enforcing this.

It felt like martial law at the time, as if all normal civilian law had been displaced by something else. That something had to do with public health, but there was clearly more going on, because suddenly our social media posts were censored and we were being asked to do things that made no sense, such as mask up for a virus that evaded mask protection and walk in only one direction in grocery aisles.

Vast amounts of the white-collar workforce stayed home—and their kids, too—until it became too much to bear. The city became a ghost town. Most U.S. cities were the same.

As the months of disaster rolled on, the captives were let out of their houses for the summer in order to protest racism but no other reason. As a way of excusing this, the same public health authorities said that racism was a virus as bad as COVID-19, so therefore it was permitted.

The protests had turned to riots in many cities, and the police were being defunded and discouraged to do anything about the problem. Citizens watched in horror as downtowns burned and drug-crazed freaks took over whole sections of cities. It was like every standard of decency had been zapped out of an entire swath of the population.

Meanwhile, large checks were arriving in people’s bank accounts, defying every normal economic expectation. How could people not be working and get their bank accounts more flush with cash than ever? There was a new law that didn’t even require that people pay rent. How weird was that? Even student loans didn’t need to be paid.

By the fall, recess from lockdown was over and everyone was told to go home again. But this time they had a job to do: They were supposed to vote. Not at the polling places, because going there would only spread germs, or so the media said. When the voting results finally came in, it was the absentee ballots that swung the election in favor of the opposition party that actually wanted more lockdowns and eventually pushed vaccine mandates on the whole population.

The new party in control took note of the large population movements out of cities and states that they controlled. This would have a large effect on voting patterns in the future. But they had a plan. They would open the borders to millions of people in the guise of caring for refugees. These new warm bodies would become voters in time and certainly count on the census when it came time to reapportion political power.

Meanwhile, the native population had begun to swim in ill health from substance abuse, widespread depression, and demoralization, plus vaccine injury. This increased dependency on the very institutions that had caused the problem in the first place: the medical/scientific establishment.

The rise of crime drove the small businesses out of the city. They had barely survived the lockdowns, but they certainly could not survive the crime epidemic. This undermined the tax base of the city and allowed the criminals to take further control.

The same cities became sanctuaries for the waves of migrants sacking the country, and partisan mayors actually used tax dollars to house these invaders in high-end hotels in the name of having compassion for the stranger. Citizens were pushed out to make way for rampaging migrant hordes, as incredible as this seems.

But with that, of course, crime rose ever further, inciting citizen anger and providing a pretext to bring in the police state in the form of the National Guard, now tasked with cracking down on crime in the transportation system.

What’s the next step? It’s probably already here: mass surveillance and censorship, plus ever-expanding police power. This will be accompanied by further population movements, as those with the means to do so flee the city and even the country and leave it for everyone else to suffer.

As I tell the story, all of this seems inevitable. It is not. It could have been stopped at any point. A wise and prudent political leadership could have admitted the error from the beginning and called on the country to rediscover freedom, decency, and the difference between right and wrong. But ego and pride stopped that from happening, and we are left with the consequences.

The government grows ever bigger and civil society ever less capable of managing itself in large urban centers. Disaster is unfolding in real time, mitigated only by a rising stock market and a financial system that has yet to fall apart completely.

Are we at the middle stages of total collapse, or at the point where the population and people in leadership positions wise up and decide to put an end to the downward slide? It’s hard to know. But this much we do know: There is a growing pocket of resistance out there that is fed up and refuses to sit by and watch this great country be sacked and taken over by everything it was set up to prevent.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 16:20

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

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Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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