Connect with us

Government

Week Ahead – The final stretch

We’re not there yet We are now heading into what would typically be a quiet time of year when everyone spends time with their loved ones and market activity is more muted. This isn’t a normal year though and while volumes may be low, activity will…

Published

on

We’re not there yet

We are now heading into what would typically be a quiet time of year when everyone spends time with their loved ones and market activity is more muted. This isn’t a normal year though and while volumes may be low, activity will be anything but.

Congress close on a stimulus deal

Another Brexit “deadline” to pass us by?

China expected to hold rates steady


Country

US

Congress appears to be finalizing the final details of a coronavirus relief bill that will include stimulus checks.  The need for more support is still warranted despite recent improvements with the economy.  The short-term outlook will likely be covered with extended lockdowns that will cripple many small businesses.  Support from the both the Fed and the Biden administration suggest stimulus efforts will remain in place for the early part of 2021.  

On the data front, much attention will be on the final third quarter GDP readings, December consumer confidence, preliminary November durable goods data, and weekly jobless claims.  The economy is starting to show deeper signs of slowdown and that could increase expectations that the next nonfarm payroll report will see job losses.  

US Politics

It is all about the Georgia Senate runoffs.  The latest polls show Republican Sen. David Perdue has a 48.9% to 48.2% edge against  Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler is tied with Democrat Raphael Warnock.  Immediately after Election Day it seemed Democrats failed to capitalize on delivering a blue wave, but that might not be the case.  Both races are too close to call and no one can be confident on what turnout to expect.  The base case is still that Republicans will win one of the Senate races and secure control of the Senate but that is no longer a foregone conclusion.  

EU

The region is slowly going into lockdown as cases surge across the continent. The ECB provided more stimulus earlier this month so will likely be quiet for a while now. Brexit still a risk, with differences remaining.

Brexit

Significant weekend risk again after the European Parliament insisted on a deal being agreed by Sunday, after which it won’t be ratified this year. That’s about as firm a deadline as we’ve seen so far and could force the necessary compromises to get it over the line.

The only caveat being the possibility of a provisional application which could tie us over until the EP approves in January. I can’t help but think after all these years, that’s the only way it’s going to go, which means this could go beyond Christmas. It wouldn’t be Brexit if it didn’t.

UK

With more regions being added to the list of tier three and households being allowed to mix at Christmas, there’s a sense of inevitability about another lockdown in January, maybe going into February. Brexit is the key risk for the UK, with Covid vaccinations now underway. 

Turkey

A normalization of policy action has helped the lira rebound in the final months of the year, with Turkey going into the new year with a new central bank head and finance minister and higher interest rates. This may continue for some time, reducing some downside risks for the currency. But this is a currency that never seems too far away from a crisis. The rebuild in underway.

China

China Loan Prime Rates decision Monday. It would be a huge surprise if rates were cut with PBOC keeping liquidity tight as part of the deleveraging process. We expect the next move in rates to be higher at the end of 2021.

No other significant data.

India

No significant data this week.

New Zealand 

Australia/New Zealand travel bubble already in doubt after Sydney Covid-19 outbreak. Potentially weighing on consumer discretionary and leisure/tourism equities. 

The New Zealand Dollar remains very strong as a proxy to the 2021 global recovery.

Country effectively shuts for two weeks from this Thursday.

Australia 

Australian equities under pressure on Friday after Covid-19 outbreak in Sydney. States have rapidly reimposed movement restrictions with New South Wales.

Both Australian equities and the Australian Dollar could face significant pressure next week if the Covid-19 situation in Sydney escalates rapidly.

Japan

The Bank of Japan meeting was a non-event. Japan releases Retail Sales and Construction Orders on Christmas Day as Japan markets are open. Large misses have caused volatility in USD/JPY on Christmas Day due to restricted liquidity.

Equities and currency otherwise at the mercy of US fiscal progress in US Congress.


Key Economic Events

Saturday, December 19th

– Brexit trade-deal talks are already in a serious situation and could be entering a pivotal moment. 

Sunday, December 20th

– No scheduled events.

Monday, December 21st

– A EU’s medicines regulator meets with Pfizer and BioNTech, 8 days early due to pressure from Germany.  It is widely expected for their coronavirus to get the greenlight, possibly signaling vaccinations will start by the end of the year. 

– Japan’s Cabinet is expected to approve the fiscal 2021 budget and release the government’s borrowing plans.

Economic Data

Mexico retail sales

China expected to keep both 1-and-5-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.85% and 4.65% respectively

New Zealand credit-card spending

Tuesday, December 22nd

Economic Releases

US Final Q3 GDP, Dec Conference Board consumer confidence: 97.5 estimate v 96.1 prior, Nov existing home sales: 6.70 million estimate v 6.85 million prior

Australia Nov prelim retail sales m/m: 2.5% estimate v 1.4% prior

Japan machine tool orders

UK public finances, GDP

South Africa budget balance

Wednesday, December 23rd

– A wrath of U.S. economic indicators could show the economy is heading in the wrong direction. 

Economic Data

U.S. durable goods, initial jobless claims, personal income/spending, U. of Mich. sentiment, new home sales

US Baker Hughes rig count

EIA crude oil inventory report

Chile central bank meeting minutes

Canada GDP

Thailand trade

Singapore CPI

Japan leading index

Italy economic confidence

Christmas Eve – Thursday, December 24th

– US fixed income markets close at 2:00pm ET and stock markets close at 1:00 pm ET

Economic Data

Mexico unemployment

Canada building permits

Japan PPI services

Turkey rate decision

Singapore industrial production

Christmas Day – Friday, December 25th

– Most stock markets close for Christmas

Economic Data

Japan CPI, jobless, retail sales, housing starts

Thailand foreign reserves

Turkey capacity utilization, foreign tourist arrivals

– No scheduled sovereign ratings on the calendar

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super…

Published

on

Are Voters Recoiling Against Disorder?

Authored by Michael Barone via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The headlines coming out of the Super Tuesday primaries have got it right. Barring cataclysmic changes, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be the Republican and Democratic nominees for president in 2024.

(Left) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on canceling student debt at Culver City Julian Dixon Library in Culver City, Calif., on Feb. 21, 2024. (Right) Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump stands on stage during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nev., on Jan. 27, 2024. (Mario Tama/Getty Images; David Becker/Getty Images)

With Nikki Haley’s withdrawal, there will be no more significantly contested primaries or caucuses—the earliest both parties’ races have been over since something like the current primary-dominated system was put in place in 1972.

The primary results have spotlighted some of both nominees’ weaknesses.

Donald Trump lost high-income, high-educated constituencies, including the entire metro area—aka the Swamp. Many but by no means all Haley votes there were cast by Biden Democrats. Mr. Trump can’t afford to lose too many of the others in target states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Majorities and large minorities of voters in overwhelmingly Latino counties in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley and some in Houston voted against Joe Biden, and even more against Senate nominee Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas).

Returns from Hispanic precincts in New Hampshire and Massachusetts show the same thing. Mr. Biden can’t afford to lose too many Latino votes in target states like Arizona and Georgia.

When Mr. Trump rode down that escalator in 2015, commentators assumed he’d repel Latinos. Instead, Latino voters nationally, and especially the closest eyewitnesses of Biden’s open-border policy, have been trending heavily Republican.

High-income liberal Democrats may sport lawn signs proclaiming, “In this house, we believe ... no human is illegal.” The logical consequence of that belief is an open border. But modest-income folks in border counties know that flows of illegal immigrants result in disorder, disease, and crime.

There is plenty of impatience with increased disorder in election returns below the presidential level. Consider Los Angeles County, America’s largest county, with nearly 10 million people, more people than 40 of the 50 states. It voted 71 percent for Mr. Biden in 2020.

Current returns show county District Attorney George Gascon winning only 21 percent of the vote in the nonpartisan primary. He’ll apparently face Republican Nathan Hochman, a critic of his liberal policies, in November.

Gascon, elected after the May 2020 death of counterfeit-passing suspect George Floyd in Minneapolis, is one of many county prosecutors supported by billionaire George Soros. His policies include not charging juveniles as adults, not seeking higher penalties for gang membership or use of firearms, and bringing fewer misdemeanor cases.

The predictable result has been increased car thefts, burglaries, and personal robberies. Some 120 assistant district attorneys have left the office, and there’s a backlog of 10,000 unprosecuted cases.

More than a dozen other Soros-backed and similarly liberal prosecutors have faced strong opposition or have left office.

St. Louis prosecutor Kim Gardner resigned last May amid lawsuits seeking her removal, Milwaukee’s John Chisholm retired in January, and Baltimore’s Marilyn Mosby was defeated in July 2022 and convicted of perjury in September 2023. Last November, Loudoun County, Virginia, voters (62 percent Biden) ousted liberal Buta Biberaj, who declined to prosecute a transgender student for assault, and in June 2022 voters in San Francisco (85 percent Biden) recalled famed radical Chesa Boudin.

Similarly, this Tuesday, voters in San Francisco passed ballot measures strengthening police powers and requiring treatment of drug-addicted welfare recipients.

In retrospect, it appears the Floyd video, appearing after three months of COVID-19 confinement, sparked a frenzied, even crazed reaction, especially among the highly educated and articulate. One fatal incident was seen as proof that America’s “systemic racism” was worse than ever and that police forces should be defunded and perhaps abolished.

2020 was “the year America went crazy,” I wrote in January 2021, a year in which police funding was actually cut by Democrats in New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver. A year in which young New York Times (NYT) staffers claimed they were endangered by the publication of Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R-Ark.) opinion article advocating calling in military forces if necessary to stop rioting, as had been done in Detroit in 1967 and Los Angeles in 1992. A craven NYT publisher even fired the editorial page editor for running the article.

Evidence of visible and tangible discontent with increasing violence and its consequences—barren and locked shelves in Manhattan chain drugstores, skyrocketing carjackings in Washington, D.C.—is as unmistakable in polls and election results as it is in daily life in large metropolitan areas. Maybe 2024 will turn out to be the year even liberal America stopped acting crazy.

Chaos and disorder work against incumbents, as they did in 1968 when Democrats saw their party’s popular vote fall from 61 percent to 43 percent.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 23:20

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The…

Published

on

Veterans Affairs Kept COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate In Place Without Evidence

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) reviewed no data when deciding in 2023 to keep its COVID-19 vaccine mandate in place.

Doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in Washington in a file image. (Jacquelyn Martin/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

VA Secretary Denis McDonough said on May 1, 2023, that the end of many other federal mandates “will not impact current policies at the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

He said the mandate was remaining for VA health care personnel “to ensure the safety of veterans and our colleagues.”

Mr. McDonough did not cite any studies or other data. A VA spokesperson declined to provide any data that was reviewed when deciding not to rescind the mandate. The Epoch Times submitted a Freedom of Information Act for “all documents outlining which data was relied upon when establishing the mandate when deciding to keep the mandate in place.”

The agency searched for such data and did not find any.

The VA does not even attempt to justify its policies with science, because it can’t,” Leslie Manookian, president and founder of the Health Freedom Defense Fund, told The Epoch Times.

“The VA just trusts that the process and cost of challenging its unfounded policies is so onerous, most people are dissuaded from even trying,” she added.

The VA’s mandate remains in place to this day.

The VA’s website claims that vaccines “help protect you from getting severe illness” and “offer good protection against most COVID-19 variants,” pointing in part to observational data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) that estimate the vaccines provide poor protection against symptomatic infection and transient shielding against hospitalization.

There have also been increasing concerns among outside scientists about confirmed side effects like heart inflammation—the VA hid a safety signal it detected for the inflammation—and possible side effects such as tinnitus, which shift the benefit-risk calculus.

President Joe Biden imposed a slate of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in 2021. The VA was the first federal agency to implement a mandate.

President Biden rescinded the mandates in May 2023, citing a drop in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. His administration maintains the choice to require vaccines was the right one and saved lives.

“Our administration’s vaccination requirements helped ensure the safety of workers in critical workforces including those in the healthcare and education sectors, protecting themselves and the populations they serve, and strengthening their ability to provide services without disruptions to operations,” the White House said.

Some experts said requiring vaccination meant many younger people were forced to get a vaccine despite the risks potentially outweighing the benefits, leaving fewer doses for older adults.

By mandating the vaccines to younger people and those with natural immunity from having had COVID, older people in the U.S. and other countries did not have access to them, and many people might have died because of that,” Martin Kulldorff, a professor of medicine on leave from Harvard Medical School, told The Epoch Times previously.

The VA was one of just a handful of agencies to keep its mandate in place following the removal of many federal mandates.

“At this time, the vaccine requirement will remain in effect for VA health care personnel, including VA psychologists, pharmacists, social workers, nursing assistants, physical therapists, respiratory therapists, peer specialists, medical support assistants, engineers, housekeepers, and other clinical, administrative, and infrastructure support employees,” Mr. McDonough wrote to VA employees at the time.

This also includes VA volunteers and contractors. Effectively, this means that any Veterans Health Administration (VHA) employee, volunteer, or contractor who works in VHA facilities, visits VHA facilities, or provides direct care to those we serve will still be subject to the vaccine requirement at this time,” he said. “We continue to monitor and discuss this requirement, and we will provide more information about the vaccination requirements for VA health care employees soon. As always, we will process requests for vaccination exceptions in accordance with applicable laws, regulations, and policies.”

The version of the shots cleared in the fall of 2022, and available through the fall of 2023, did not have any clinical trial data supporting them.

A new version was approved in the fall of 2023 because there were indications that the shots not only offered temporary protection but also that the level of protection was lower than what was observed during earlier stages of the pandemic.

Ms. Manookian, whose group has challenged several of the federal mandates, said that the mandate “illustrates the dangers of the administrative state and how these federal agencies have become a law unto themselves.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 22:10

Read More

Continue Reading

Government

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate…

Published

on

Low Iron Levels In Blood Could Trigger Long COVID: Study

Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

People with inadequate iron levels in their blood due to a COVID-19 infection could be at greater risk of long COVID.

(Shutterstock)

A new study indicates that problems with iron levels in the bloodstream likely trigger chronic inflammation and other conditions associated with the post-COVID phenomenon. The findings, published on March 1 in Nature Immunology, could offer new ways to treat or prevent the condition.

Long COVID Patients Have Low Iron Levels

Researchers at the University of Cambridge pinpointed low iron as a potential link to long-COVID symptoms thanks to a study they initiated shortly after the start of the pandemic. They recruited people who tested positive for the virus to provide blood samples for analysis over a year, which allowed the researchers to look for post-infection changes in the blood. The researchers looked at 214 samples and found that 45 percent of patients reported symptoms of long COVID that lasted between three and 10 months.

In analyzing the blood samples, the research team noticed that people experiencing long COVID had low iron levels, contributing to anemia and low red blood cell production, just two weeks after they were diagnosed with COVID-19. This was true for patients regardless of age, sex, or the initial severity of their infection.

According to one of the study co-authors, the removal of iron from the bloodstream is a natural process and defense mechanism of the body.

But it can jeopardize a person’s recovery.

When the body has an infection, it responds by removing iron from the bloodstream. This protects us from potentially lethal bacteria that capture the iron in the bloodstream and grow rapidly. It’s an evolutionary response that redistributes iron in the body, and the blood plasma becomes an iron desert,” University of Oxford professor Hal Drakesmith said in a press release. “However, if this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly. The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem.”

The research team believes that consistently low iron levels could explain why individuals with long COVID continue to experience fatigue and difficulty exercising. As such, the researchers suggested iron supplementation to help regulate and prevent the often debilitating symptoms associated with long COVID.

It isn’t necessarily the case that individuals don’t have enough iron in their body, it’s just that it’s trapped in the wrong place,” Aimee Hanson, a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge who worked on the study, said in the press release. “What we need is a way to remobilize the iron and pull it back into the bloodstream, where it becomes more useful to the red blood cells.”

The research team pointed out that iron supplementation isn’t always straightforward. Achieving the right level of iron varies from person to person. Too much iron can cause stomach issues, ranging from constipation, nausea, and abdominal pain to gastritis and gastric lesions.

1 in 5 Still Affected by Long COVID

COVID-19 has affected nearly 40 percent of Americans, with one in five of those still suffering from symptoms of long COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Long COVID is marked by health issues that continue at least four weeks after an individual was initially diagnosed with COVID-19. Symptoms can last for days, weeks, months, or years and may include fatigue, cough or chest pain, headache, brain fog, depression or anxiety, digestive issues, and joint or muscle pain.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/09/2024 - 12:50

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending