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US Futures Steady Ahead Of US Jobs Data

US Futures Steady Ahead Of US Jobs Data

US equity futures trade flat, recovering from an earlier loss as big as 0.6% and set for a 2% gain…



US Futures Steady Ahead Of US Jobs Data

US equity futures trade flat, recovering from an earlier loss as big as 0.6% and set for a 2% gain on the week, as investors awaited the June payrolls data (full preview here) to gauge whether the world’s largest economy will avoid a recession. At the same time, the yen and dollar both found haven demand with newsflow dominated by the assassination of former Japan prime minister Shinzo Abe.

Contracts on the S&P 500 dipped 0.1% to just above 3,900, signaling US stocks would likely retain weekly gains absent a payrolls shock report. Treasuries rose, with the 10-year yield dropping 1 basis point to 2.97%. The Bloomberg Commodity Index headed for the longest streak of weekly losses since March 2020.

Shockwaves spread across the world and global markets as Japan’s former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated. Asian stocks pared an increase and the yen, a haven asset, strengthened. Before the shooting, the possibility of 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of stimulus in China, mostly for infrastructure, had aided sentiment.

In the US, Twitter shares fell 4% in premarket trading on Friday after a report said that Elon Musk’s $44 billion proposed takeover of the social media company was in “serious jeopardy. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • GameStop (GME US) shares fell 6.8% in US premarket trading after the video-game retailer fired its CFO Mike Recupero and announced that it was cutting jobs.
  • Upstart (UPST US) shares drop 17% in US premarket trading after the consumer- finance company reported preliminary revenue for the second quarter that missed prior guidance.
  • Levi Strauss (LEVI US) shares rose 4.6% in US after-hours trading on Thursday. Analysts are positive on the casual clothing maker’s earnings beating estimates, saying it highlights the strength of its brand and a positive performance in a difficult environment for retailers.
  • Six Flags (SIX US) drops 2% in US premarket trading. It has been cut to neutral and price targets lowered for Cedar Fair and SeaWorld at Citi, citing signs of weakness across the industry “with the month of June particularly problematic.”

"With the recession talk taking center stage, investors are increasingly focused on the jobs figures,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a note. “A strong read could bring forward the idea that the US economy could soft-land despite tighter Fed policy, or that the Fed would allow itself to get more aggressive to fight inflation.” 

And speaking of jobs, the June US nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to print 268k vs 390k in May with the whisper number lower around 245k. In previewing Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, Goldman trader Matthew Fleury wrote that "the market wants not too hot not too cold to keep this bid. Strong enough to say the world isn't going into recession. Not too strong to send US10s back to 3.25% on the day. Not too cold to highlight US data deteriorating while inflation will stay high and fed hiking 75bps into dramatic slowdown. Something like 175k to 250k.

Global markets are increasingly positioned for the possibility of a US recession as the Federal Reserve delivers successive rate hikes to tame elevated inflation. On Thursday, two of the Fed’s most hawkish policy makers backed raising interest rates another 75 basis points this month, while playing down recession fears. Governor Christopher Waller and James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, both stressed the need to get policy into restrictive territory to confront the hottest price pressures in 40 years, even if this meant slowing growth. Both are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee this year. Meanwhile, investors suspended their judgment on the question, keeping key portions of the US yield curve - such as the 2s10s - inverted and awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index erased a loss as carmakers rallied, as investor attention turned to the second-quarter earnings season from worries around a potential recession. Stoxx Europe 600 Index up 0.6%, autos and construction sectors lead gains. Miners, banks and consumer discretionary stocks were the weakest within the Stoxx 600

Earlier in the session, Asia Pacific shares climbed as speculation about stimulus in China and commentary from Federal Reserve officials soothed investor concerns about a slowdown in global growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added as much as 1.1%, led higher by tech and material shares, amid reports that China could allow 1.5 trillion yuan of bond sales by local governments.  Tech-heavy markets such as South Korea and Taiwan led the region’s advance, while Japan shares trimmed their advance after reports that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot during a campaign event. Abe later died, NHK reported.

The MSCI Asia gauge is poised for a weekly gain of about 1.3% as chip shares rebounded, helped by better-than-expected sales at Samsung Electronics. Still, the Asia tech gauge’s advance has lagged the Nasdaq 100’s climb this week as worries remain about the region’s growth outlook.  “A lot of it is simply sentiment driven -- the market is still on edge with arguments on both sides for a hard or soft landing,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “The Chinese stimulus is interesting from a timing perspective given the fast tracking of the sales from the next year’s quota, indicating pro-activity from the central government,” he added

India’s benchmark equities index posted its best weekly advance since April as a decline in commodity prices eased concerns of higher inflation and tighter monetary policy measures.  The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 0.6% to 54,481.84 in Mumbai, taking its weekly advance to nearly 3%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index advanced 0.5% on Friday. Most markets in Asia climbed amid China’s stimulus measures to support infrastructure and shore up the economy.   Top private sector lender ICICI Bank Ltd., which climbed to its highest level since April 21, offered the biggest boost to the Sensex. The index saw 21 of its 30 member stocks trading higher. Fifteen of 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a gauge of capital goods companies.  The price of Brent crude, a major import item for India, has declined more than 14% since the end of May to trade near $105 a barrel on Friday. Lower oil prices will help reduce the import bill, support the local currency and keep consumer price inflation tethered.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index posted a weekly gain of 2.1%, the most since mid-March, lifted by some easing of recession fears.   The benchmark rose 0.5% Friday to close the week at 6,678, with mining and energy stocks leading advances. The materials subgauge rose as much as 2.9% before paring some gains as iron-ore futures cooled, with the possibility of major stimulus in China having provided a brief lift to sentiment. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,169.24.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung from a loss and the yen rose versus its Group-of-10 peers after the news that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated in the western city of Nara during campaigning for Sunday’s national election. The yen climbed as much as 0.5% against the dollar. Treasuries also gained after the news. The Australian dollar fell and bonds pared declines the news of the shooting.

Treasuries rose on Friday, with the two- and 10-year yield curve remaining inverted for a fourth day. Slowdown fears dogged Europe too, where the closely watched yield spread between Italy and Germany narrowed 4 basis points, even as the region’s central bank was expected to begin monetary tightening. Bunds  outperform Treasuries as gilts lag: front-end yields lead, with 2-year richer by ~1.9bp on the day, steepening 2s10s spread slightly; 10-year around 2.98% with bunds trading ~4bp richer in the sector and gilts lagging by ~3bp.  Bunds bull steepened, paring some of Thursday’s bear flattening move ahead of scheduled comments by ECB speakers including President Lagarde, as well as US jobs numbers which are expected to slow.

Bitcoin fell but held above $21,000 apiece.

In commodities, WTI traded within Thursday’s range, falling 0.2% to trade near $102.57. Brent rises 0.2% above $105. Most base metals trade in the red; LME tin falls 3.4%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $3 to trade near $1,737/oz

Looking to the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for June. Otherwise, data releases include Italian industrial production for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Muller and Villeroy, and the Fed’s Williams.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 3,888.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 413.92
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 158.62
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 524.45
  • Nikkei up 0.1% to 26,517.19
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,887.43
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 21,725.78
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,356.08
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 54,375.89
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,678.01
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,350.61
  • Gold spot down 0.0% to $1,739.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.36% to 107.52
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.28%
  • Euro down 0.5% to $1.0109
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $104.40/bbl

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The shooting of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is spurring market debate over a potential loss of support for the Bank of Japan’s super-easy monetary policy after an initial rush to haven assets Friday.
  • Britain’s labor market grew at the slowest pace in 16 months, suggesting the rapid hiring spree following the pandemic is starting to give way to more normal trends, a survey showed
  • A weakening Swedish currency is piling pressure on the Riksbank to do more to tamp down on inflation, only a week after it hiked its main interest rate by the most in two decades
  • Denmark’s central bank expects the country to return to lower interest rates once the current push toward rate hikes has passed, Governor Lars Rohde said in an interview with newspaper Borsen
  • The ECB’s first major climate stress test shows banks facing a hit of 70 billion euros ($71 billion) if the transition to a lower-carbon economy is disorderly
  • The German parliament has passed a set of legislation to secure the country’s energy supply as Moscow reduces gas flows to Europe
  • Global food prices dropped from near a record amid prospects for fresh supplies and fears about a recession, potentially offering some respite to strained households
  • China’s Ministry of Finance is considering allowing local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of special bonds in the second half of this year, an unprecedented acceleration of infrastructure funding aimed at shoring up the country’s beleaguered economy

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pacific stocks were higher across the board as the region took impetus from Wall St's fourth consecutive win streak, but with gains capped heading into the NFP jobs data. ASX 200 was led higher by the energy sector and amid hopes of thawing Australia–China relations. Nikkei 225 traded positive but pared a majority of its gains following the shooting of former PM Abe. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. kept afloat amid stimulus hopes with China reportedly considering USD 220bln of stimulus although gains were capped in the mainland amid weakness in the property sector and after Chinese Premier Li noted China's economy is recovering but the foundation was not yet solid.

Top Asian News

  • China's military said it is conducting a military exercise around Taiwan and US support for Taiwan 'separatist forces' is futile which will only disturb the peace in the Taiwan Strait, according to state media.
  • China Defence Ministry said China firmly opposes the visit by a US senator to Taiwan which severely damages the relationship of the two countries and two militaries, while it added that the drill near Taiwan is directed at US and Taiwan provocation, according to Reuters.
  • Former Japanese PM Abe has died following the earlier shooting during a speech in Nara, via NHK.
  • After 18 Years, Thailand Post to Raise Prices as Inflation Bites
  • World Leaders React to Shooting of Japan’s Ex Leader Shinzo Abe
  • TikTok Owner Loses Co-Founder After Edtech Flop

European bourses have been choppy throughout the session, moving between modest gains and losses despite a lack of fresh fundamental drivers; Euro Stoxx 50 -0.1%. US futures have been steadier, consistently posting modest losses, ES -0.3%, going into the BLS release. Sectoral performance is mixed, with Energy modestly outperforming while the likes of Basic Resources lag amid base metal pricing in wake of renewed USD strength. China's CPCA says 1.97mln passenger cars were sold in June (prev. 1.37mln in May); Tesla (TSLA) sold 78,906 China-made vehicles in June (prev. 32,165 in May), via Reuters. Acer (2553 TW) June sales +3.1% YY; H1 -0.4% YY. Q2 prelim. revenue TWD 72.35bln, -9.3% YY.

Top European News

  • Citi Strategists Add AB InBev, Bayer, Compass to Focus List
  • Polish Industry Is Seeking Compensation in Case of Gas Rationing
  • Blatter, Platini Acquitted by Swiss Criminal Court, AFP Reports
  • Crops Climb as Traders Eye Output Prospects Amid Tight Reserves


  • DXY breaches final 2002 hurdle on the way through 107.500 ahead of NFP with upward impetus from weakness in several index components and other Dollar counterparts, index to reaches 107.790 before waning.
  • Yen bucks broad trend following fatal shooting of ex-Japanese PM Abe at pre-election campaign event, USD/JPY capped around 136.00.
  • Sterling slides after short-lived reprieve from political upheaval, Cable holds in low 1.1900 area after 1.2050+ pop.
  • Euro extends declines before finding some technical props; EUR/USD back on 1.0100 handle vs 1.0072 low in line with a key Fib retracement level.
  • Loonie loses recovery momentum in the run up to Canadian LFS and US BLS showdown, USD/CAD around 1.3000 within 1.3025-1.2953 range.
  • Aussie and Kiwi unable to resist latest Greenback advances, but underpinned by partial rebound in some commodities; AUD/USD tests support into 0.6800 from circa 0.6861 peak, NZD/USD hovers around 0.6150 from high just shy of 0.6200.
  • Lira laments latest CBRT survey showing further rise in end 2020 Turkish CPI and USD/TRY forecasts, latter now up to 18.9881 vs current 17.3200 spot price.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds relatively becalmed awaiting US and Canadian employment data double-header.
  • Bunds, Gilts and T-note all rangy between 151.17-150.42, 115.63-12 and 118-20/08 parameters.
  • UK debt lagging sub-par in the hiatus before a new Tory leader and PM is appointed and this also weighing on the underperforming Sonia strip.
  • Italian Economy Minister Franco says he is confident that market conditions will stabilize and domestic bond yields will fall to reflect fundamentals.

Central Banks

  • ECB says the top 41 banks would suffer credit and market losses of at least EUR 70bln from higher carbon prices, floods and droughts; just 20% consider climate risk as a variable when granting loans.
  • ECB's Visco says a hike larger than 25bps could be appropriate in September if medium-term inflation expectations do not improve. IT/GE 10yr spread peak of 250bps in early June was not consistent with economic fundamentals. Comments were essentially in-fitting with existing ECB guidance and his recent remarks.


  • Fresh fundamentals have been somewhat limited and focused on familiar themes; however, commodities broadly are dented amid renewed and pronounced USD upside.
  • Crude posts losses of less than USD 1/bbl in comparison to the sizeable USD 16/bbl ranges seen this week.
  • Kuwait set August KEC crude OSP for Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 7.15/bbl, according to Reuters.
  • UK's CMA says there is cause for concerns in some parts of the road fuel market.
  • Spot gold is in-fitting, modestly softer but essentially unchanged on the session given the sizeable recent moves and near USD 100/oz weekly parameters.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: June Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 268,000, prior 390,000
    • June Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 21,000, prior 18,000
    • June Change in Private Payrolls, est. 237,000, prior 333,000
  • June Unemployment Rate, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6%
    • June Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.4%, prior 62.3%
  • June Underemployment Rate, prior 7.1%
  • June Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 5.0%, prior 5.2%; MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
    • June Average Weekly Hours, est. 34.6, prior 34.6
  • 10:00: May Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: May Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 2.0%, prior 2.0%
  • 11:00: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Puerto Rico
  • 15:00: May Consumer Credit, est. $30.9b, prior $38.1b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I honestly feel exhausted after this week. Bonds and commodities have been swinging to both sides of the inflation / disinflation ledger in a pretty violent manner in such a short space of time. To recover I've managed to secure two early rounds of golf this weekend with the quid pro quo that I have all Saturday afternoon and evening to look after the kids while my wife goes to see Pearl Jam in Hyde Park! I'm slightly jealous as the album "Ten" was strangely my revision album of choice during my university exams. I was addicted. That might explain the odd way I look at economics!

Economics is one category you can vote for me in the global II fixed income poll that started this week. All of us at DB would appreciate your support if you value our research. Click here (pdf) to see all the categories I would appreciate your support in. Feel free to let me know if you voted so I can feel better about myself!

So in an exhausting week, and in spite of a march of bad news, the S&P 500 (+1.50% overnight) has for now successfully climbed a July wall of worry to be up every day so far with the first four consecutive day increase since late March. Payrolls awaits us today and given that we think it will be tough to call a proper recession until employment cracks, these are important events.

That's not the only one coming up with US CPI next Wednesday and then the "wait and see to what happens next" after the scheduled Nord Stream gas pipeline closure (July 11-21) ends. When it comes to recession risk, Tim and Henry on my team have just launched a new weekly “Recession Watch” product (link here). It’s a brief 2-pager, and they’ll be publishing it each Thursday following the US claims data that our economists have shown to be one of the best leading indicators for growth. Yesterday’s numbers came in worse than expected however, with the weekly initial jobless claims at 235k in the week through July 2 (vs. 230k expected), which is their highest level since January, whilst continuing claims for the week through June 25 also rose to a 9-week high of 1.375m (vs 1.328m expected) which brings the 4 week moving average +2.2% above its lows over the last year. Remember that in the 60 years of this data, every time we've had an +11.5% rise in the 4 week moving average from the lows over the previous year we've generally had a recession start relatively quickly (average 2 months).

In terms of what to expect from payrolls, our US economists think that nonfarm payrolls will have grown by just +225k (consensus at +268k), which would be the slowest pace of monthly job growth in 18 months. However, they do think this will be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 3.5%, which is an important milestone as that was the pre-pandemic low in the unemployment rate back in February 2020.

Ahead of all that, markets were in a buoyant mood and as discussed at the top, the S&P 500 advanced +1.50% with an outperformance among more cyclical industries. Indeed, the NASDAQ gained +2.28% and the small-cap Russell 2000 was up +2.43%, so some strong increases in a number of areas. And in turn, investors grew more optimistic about the ability of central banks to keep hiking rates, with Fed funds futures taking the expected terminal rate up by +3.5bps as those growth fears abated somewhat. That enabled Treasury yields to rise across the curve, with those on the 10yr (+6.7bps) moving back above the 3% mark intraday but just dipping below by the close (2.9945%), even if the 2s10s curve remained in inversion territory (-2.6bps at the close) for a 3rd consecutive day. This morning yields are down -1.48bps to 2.979% as we go to press. Meanwhile, some of the more hawkish Fed officials, Governor Waller and President Bullard, re-iterated the tone expressed in the minutes the day prior. Namely, they support 75bp hikes in July and that the risks are for inflation expectations to explode asymmetrically higher. Both still sounded an optimistic tone about the chances of avoiding a hard landing recession, choosing to emphasise strong GDI and labour market numbers over GDP which has dragged due to large trade deficits.

It was much the same story in Europe yesterday as well, with the STOXX 600 climbing +1.88%, and yields on 10yr bunds (+11.1bps), OATs (+9.6bps) and BTPs (+15.3bps) all moving higher. That said, there was continued bad news on the energy side, with natural gas futures (+7.13%) advancing for a 7th day running to close at €183 per megawatt-hour. That comes just days ahead of the scheduled closure of the Nord Stream pipeline, and yesterday saw German economy minister Habeck appeal to Canada’s government to release a turbine for Nord Stream that’s been affected by sanctions, amidst fears that Russia could use the missing turbine as a reason to stop the flow of gas. Reports from Reuters overnight suggest that Ukraine opposes Germany’s plea for Canada to hand Russia a turbine that would enable the latter to send gas supplies back to Germany, with Ukraine citing such a manuevre as a circumvention of sanctions.

On a related theme, one-month forward German electricity prices also continued to run higher, increasing +7.28% and are threatening €400 for the first time since Russia’s invasion, having closed at €398. Against that backdrop, the euro weakened a further -0.22% against the US Dollar, closing at its lowest level since 2002 once again.

On the topic of commodities, yesterday saw something of a bounceback after consistent recent losses across the board. Brent crude oil prices rebounded by +3.93%, closing at $104.65/bbl, which is some way from the levels beneath $100/bbl where they were trading a little more than 24 hours previously. Similarly, copper (+4.80%) recovered from a 19-month low, whilst gold (+0.07%) advanced from a 9-month low.

Here in the UK, we had another day of dramatic political developments as Prime Minister Johnson finally announced his resignation following a raft of ministerial departures. Whilst it had looked as though Johnson would try to ride the situation out 24 hours ago, not long after we went to press, his newly appointed chancellor Nadhim Zahawi (who’s only been in the job since Tuesday night) publicly called for him to go, and shortly after that the news leaked through that Johnson planned to resign. In his statement outside 10 Downing Street, Johnson said that he would remain PM until a successor is chosen, but there have been calls from a number of MPs and even former Conservative PM John Major for him to be removed from office immediately, so there are doubts as to how long he’ll remain be in place. Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party said that if Johnson didn’t step down straight away, they’d hold a vote of no confidence in Parliament.

Asian equity markets are higher in early trading tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. Adding to the positive sentiment is the story from yesterday of the possibility that the Chinese government will give a huge stimulus shot to the struggling economy by allowing local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of special bonds in 2H as support for infrastructure funding. This morning the Kospi (+0.91%) is leading gains across the region with the Hang Seng (+0.39%), Shanghai Composite (+0.18%) and CSI (+0.19%) all trading in positive territory. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.51%) gave up its initial bigger gains after former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was taken to hospital after being shot (more below). Outside of Asia, US equity futures point to a negative start with contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.38%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.46%) falling after a good run so far this month.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s household spending surprisingly slipped -0.5% y/y in May (v/s +2.1% expected), declining for the third straight month and compared to the previous month’s -1.7% drop. Separately, Japan’s current account surplus narrowed to ¥128.4 billion in May (v/s ¥172.0 billion expected) on ballooning imports and against a surplus of ¥501.1 billion in April. In addition to higher energy costs, the yen's sharp depreciation against the US dollar also caused import prices to rise in the nation. Looking ahead, China's June inflation data which are due to be released over the weekend will be closely watched.

In a very shocking event, Japan’s longest serving PM Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a stump speech in the city of Nara (Southern Japan) for the parliamentary elections for the upper house scheduled on Sunday. Media reports are not immediately clear on how serious Abe’s injuries are.

Before we look at the day ahead, on the data side, yesterday saw German industrial production grow by +0.2% in May (vs. +0.4% expected), although the previous month’s growth was revised up to +1.3% (vs. +0.7% previously).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the US jobs report for June. Otherwise, data releases include Italian industrial production for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Muller and Villeroy, and the Fed’s Williams.



Tyler Durden Fri, 07/08/2022 - 07:52

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Spread & Containment

Decrease in Japanese children’s ability to balance during movement related to COVID-19 activity restrictions

A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected…



A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected their life habits and their abilities to perform physical activities. By comparing medical examination data before and after the onset of the pandemic, they found that physical functions among adolescents deteriorated, including their dynamic balance. They also found that the children had higher body fat levels and worse life habits. Rather than a lack of exercise time, this may have been because of a lack of quality exercise due to activity restrictions.  

Credit: Credit must be given when image is used

A team of researchers from Nagoya University in central Japan investigated how restrictions on children’s activities during the COVID-19 pandemic affected their life habits and their abilities to perform physical activities. By comparing medical examination data before and after the onset of the pandemic, they found that physical functions among adolescents deteriorated, including their dynamic balance. They also found that the children had higher body fat levels and worse life habits. Rather than a lack of exercise time, this may have been because of a lack of quality exercise due to activity restrictions.  

During the COVID-19 pandemic, in Japan, as in other countries, schools and sports clubs tried to prevent the spread of infection by reducing physical education and restricting outdoor physical activities, club activities, and sports. However, children who are denied opportunities for physical activity with social elements may develop bad habits. During the pandemic, children, like adults, increased the time they spent looking at television, smartphone, and computer screens, exercised less, and slept less. Such changes in lifestyle can harm adolescent bodies, leading to weight gain and health problems. 

Visiting Researcher Tadashi Ito and Professor Hideshi Sugiura from the Department of Biological Functional Science at the Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, together with Dr. Yuji Ito from the Department of Pediatrics at Nagoya University Hospital, and  Dr. Nobuhiko Ochi and Dr. Koji Noritake from Aichi Prefectural Mikawa Aoitori Medical and Rehabilitation Center for Developmental Disabilities, conducted a study of Japanese children and students in elementary and junior high schools, aged 9-15, by analyzing data from physical examinations before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. They evaluated the children’s muscle strength, dynamic balance functions, walking speed, body fat percentage, screen time, sleep time, quality of life, and physical activity time.  

The researchers found that after the onset of the pandemic, children were more likely to have decreased balance ability when moving, larger body fat percentage, report spending more time looking at TV, computers or smartphones, and sleep less. Since there were no changes in the time spent on physical activity or the number of meals eaten, Sugiura and his colleagues suggest that the worsening of physical functions was related to the quality of exercise of the children. The researchers reported their findings in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.  

“Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Japan after April 2020, children have not been able to engage in sufficient physical education, sports activities, and outdoor play at school. It became clear that balance ability during movement was easily affected, lifestyle habits were disrupted, and the percentage of body fat was likely to increase,” explained Ito. “This may have been because of shorter outdoor playtime and club activities, which impeded children’s ability to learn the motor skills necessary to balance during movement.” 

“Limitations on children’s opportunities for physical activity because of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus have had a significant impact on the development of physical function and lifestyle and may cause physical deterioration and health problems in the future,” warned Ito. “Especially, the risk of injury to children may increase because of a reduced dynamic balance function.” 

The results suggest that even after the novel coronavirus becomes endemic, it is important to consider the effects of social restrictions on the body composition of adolescents. Since physical activities with a social element may be important for health, authorities should prioritize preventing the reduction of children’s physical inactivity and actively encourage them to play outdoors and exercise. The group has some recommendations for families worried about the effects of school closings and other coronavirus measures on their children. “It is important for children to practice dynamic balance ability, maintaining balance to avoid falling over while performing movements,” Ito advised. “To improve balance function in children, it is important to incorporate enhanced content, such as short-term exercise programs specifically designed to improve balance functions.” 

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These Are The World’s Richest Billionaires Over The Past 10 Years

These Are The World’s Richest Billionaires Over The Past 10 Years

The last decade has seen a number of changes in the world’s richest billionaires…



These Are The World's Richest Billionaires Over The Past 10 Years

The last decade has seen a number of changes in the world’s richest billionaires list.

For one, there are new faces at the top of the leaderboard that were never there before. But, as Visual Capitalist's Nick Routley details below, one of the most obvious changes though, is that the richest billionaires have accumulated a lot more wealth in recent years.

Using annual data from Forbes on the richest billionaires, Routley has visualized the wealth and ranking of the top 10 billionaires over the past decade.

Who are the World’s Richest Billionaires?

While the pecking order has fluctuated, the leaderboard remains very exclusive. Out of a possible 10 spots, there are only 19 individuals that have made the list over the last decade.

Here’s the current list of richest billionaires in 2022, including when they first made the list (if in the last decade):


*Billionaires with “-” first made the list at an earlier date. Example: Mukesh Ambani made the 2008 list.


Microsoft co-founder turned philanthropist, Bill Gates, is a perennial presence at the top of these lists. Gates is currently at his lowest rank over this time period, but is still in fourth spot. The billionaire has pledged to give away nearly all of his fortune to the eponymously named Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

From 2018 to 2021, Jeff Bezos sat at the top of the world’s richest people ranking, only to be bumped out by Elon Musk. In 2020, Bezos became the first person to amass a $200 billion fortune after Amazon’s stock price surged during the pandemic. In recent months, Bezos’ net worth has taken a hit as Amazon’s share price has fallen back down to Earth.

Today, Elon Musk is the world’s richest person.

The Rich Get Richer

Over time, the median net worth of the richest billionaires has grown significantly.


Most fortunes are held in the form of business equity, real estate, and publicly-traded stocks—all asset classes that have benefited from the era of cheap money and ultra-low interest rates.


Over the decade period, the median net worth of the top 10 billionaires has nearly tripled from $39 billion to $115 billion.

In fact, the first billionaire to pass the $100 billion threshold was Jeff Bezos in 2018, when he took the top spot on the list from Bill Gates. However, now all but two on the top 10 wealthiest list are centibillionaires.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 20:40

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Contradictions, Lies, And “I Don’t Recalls”: The Fauci Deposition

Contradictions, Lies, And "I Don’t Recalls": The Fauci Deposition

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, Missouri Attoney General…



Contradictions, Lies, And "I Don't Recalls": The Fauci Deposition

Authored by Techno Fog via The Reactionary,

Today, Missouri Attoney General Eric Schmitt released the transcript of the testimony of Dr. Anthony Fauci. As you might recall, Fauci was deposed as part of an ongoing federal lawsuit challenging the Biden Administration’s violations of the First Amendment in targeting and suppressing the speech of Americans who challenged the government’s narrative on COVID-19.

Here is the Fauci deposition transcript.

And here are the highlights…

EcoHealth Alliance - the Peter Daszak group - is knee-deep in the Wuhan controversy, having been funded by the Fauci’s NIH for coronavirus and gain of function research in China (and having worked with the Chinese team in Wuhan). What does Fauci say about EcoHealth Alliance? Over two years after the COVID-19 pandemic began, and after millions dead worldwide, he’s “vaguely familiar” with their work.

In early 2020, Fauci was put on notice that his group - NIAID - had funded EcoHealth alliance on bat coronavirus research for the past five years.

This coincided with early reports - directly to Fauci, from Jeremy Ferrar and Christian Anderson - “of the possibility of there being a manipulation of the virus” based on the fact that “it was an unusual virus.”

Fauci conceded that he was specifically made aware by Anderson that “the unusual features of the virus” make it look “potentially engineered.”

Fauci couldn’t recall why he sent an article discussing gain of function research in China to his deputy, Hugh Auchincloss, telling him it was essential that they speak on the phone. He couldn’t recall speaking with Auchincloss via phone that day. But remarkably, Fauci did remember assigning research tasks to Auchincloss

Fauci was evasive on conversations with Francis Collins about whether NIAID may have funded coronavirus-related research in China, eventually stating “I don’t recall.”

The phrase “I don’t recall” was prominent in Fauci’s deposition. He said it a total of 174 times:

For example, Fauci couldn’t remember what anyone said on a call discussing whether the virus originated in a lab:

During that same call, Fauci couldn’t recall whether anyone expressed concern that the lab leak “might discredit scientific funding projects.” He also couldn’t recall whether there was a discussion about a lab leak distracting from the virus response. Fauci did remember, however, that they agreed there needed to be more time to investigate the virus origins - including the lab leak theory.

What else couldn’t Fauci remember? Whether, early into the pandemic, his confidants raised concerns about social media posts about the origins of COVID-19.

Yet Fauci did admit he was concerned about social media posts blaming China for the pandemic. He even admitted the accidental lab leak “certainly is a possibility,” contradicting his prior claims to National Geographic where he said the virus “could not have been artificially or deliberately manipulated.”

Fauci also couldn’t recall whether he had any conversations with Daszak about the origins of COVID-19 in February 2020, but admitted those conversations might have happened: “I told you before that I did not remember any direct conversations with him about the origin, and I said I very well might have had conversations but I don't specifically remember conversations.” And he couldn’t recall telling the media early on during the pandemic that the virus was consistent with a jump “from an animal to a human.”

Fauci said he was in the dark on social media actions to curb speech and suspend accounts that posted COVID-19 information that didn’t fit the mainstream narrative: “I’m not aware of suppression of speech on social media.” Yet it was Fauci’s proclamations of the truth, whether about the origins of COVID-19 to the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine, that led to social media companies banning discussions of contrary information.

Regarding those removals of content, Fauci had no personal knowledge of a US Government/Social Media effort to curb “misinformation.” But he conceded the possibility numerous times.

Then there’s the issue of masks. In February 2020, Fauci informed an acquaintance that was traveling: “I do not recommend that you wear a mask.” Fauci would later become a vocal proponent of masks only two months later.

I’m near my Substack length limit - posting the excerpts does that - but you can see from Fauci’s testimony that his public statements about COVID-19 origins and the necessity to wear a mask didn’t match his private conversations. This has been known for some time, but it’s finally nice to get him on record.

Again, read it all and subscribe here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/05/2022 - 21:40

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