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U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY DOUBLES ANNUALLY BUT STILL BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS

U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY DOUBLES ANNUALLY BUT STILL BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS
PR Newswire
IRVINE, Calif., Jan. 12, 2023

Foreclosure Starts Up from 2021, While Foreclosure Completions Decline; Illinois, New Jersey and Delaware Post Highest Foreclos…

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U.S. FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY DOUBLES ANNUALLY BUT STILL BELOW PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS

PR Newswire

IRVINE, Calif., Jan. 12, 2023

Foreclosure Starts Up from 2021, While Foreclosure Completions Decline; Illinois, New Jersey and Delaware Post Highest Foreclosure Rates in 2022

IRVINE, Calif., Jan. 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, today released its Year-End 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows foreclosure filings— default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 324,237 U.S. properties in 2022, up 115 percent from 2021 but down 34 percent from 2019, before the pandemic shook up the market. Foreclosure filings in 2022 were also down 89 percent from a peak of nearly 2.9 million in 2010.

Those 324,237 properties with foreclosure filings in 2022 represented 0.23 percent of all U.S. housing units, up slightly from 0.11 percent in 2021, but down from 0.36 percent in 2019 and down from a peak of 2.23 percent in 2010.

"Eighteen months after the end of the government's foreclosure moratorium, and with less than five percent of the 8.4 million borrowers who entered the CARES Act forbearance program remaining, foreclosure activity remains significantly lower than it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic," said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence at ATTOM. "It seems clear that government and mortgage industry efforts during the pandemic, coupled with a strong economy, have helped prevent millions of unnecessary foreclosures."

2022 Year-End Historical Foreclosure Activity & Rates

ATTOM's year-end foreclosure report provides a unique count of properties with a foreclosure filing during the year based on publicly recorded and published foreclosure filings collected in more than 3,000 counties nationwide, accounting for more than 99 percent of the U.S. population – also available for license or customized reporting. See full methodology below.

The report also includes new data for December 2022, showing there were 30,822 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings, up less than 1 percent from the previous month but up 72 percent from a year ago.

Bank repossessions decrease 70 percent since 2019
Lenders repossessed 42,854 properties through foreclosures (REO) in 2022, up 67 percent from 2021 but down 70 percent from 2019 (143,955) and down 96 percent from a peak of 1,050,500 in 2010.

States that saw the greatest number of REOs in 2022 included Illinois (5,518 REOs); Michigan (3,669 REOs); Pennsylvania (2,741 REOs); New York (2,405 REOs); and California (2,223 REOs).

Those metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of REOs in 2022 included Chicago, Illinois (3,545 REOs); Detroit, Illinois (2,135 REOs); New York, New York (1,656 REOs); St. Louis, Missouri (1,395 REOs); and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (1,302 REOs).

"Unlike foreclosure activity during the Great Recession, the majority of homes in foreclosure are not being repossessed by lenders," Sharga noted. "Our recent homeowner equity report shows that 93 percent of borrowers in foreclosure today have positive equity, which they appear to be leveraging in order to avoid a foreclosure by refinancing their mortgage or selling the property at a profit. It seems likely that this is a trend that will continue in 2023."

Foreclosure starts on the rise nationwide
Lenders started the foreclosure process on 248,170 U.S. properties in 2022, up 169 percent from 2021 but down 26 percent form 2019 and down 88 percent from a peak of 2,139,005 in 2009.

States that saw the greatest number of foreclosure starts in 2022 included California (27,269 foreclosure starts); Texas (23,151 foreclosure starts); Florida (22,968 foreclosure starts); Illinois (16,941 foreclosure starts); and Ohio (13,469 foreclosure starts);

Counter to the national trend, 5 states saw an increase in foreclosure starts from 2019. They included Indiana (up 81 percent); Michigan (up 10 percent); Idaho (up 8 percent); Colorado (up 2 percent); and Minnesota (up less than 1 percent).

Those metropolitan statistical areas with a population greater than 1 million that saw the greatest number of foreclosure starts in 2022, included New York, New York (15,821 foreclosure starts); Chicago, Illinois (14,360 foreclosure starts); Los Angeles, California (8,185 foreclosure starts); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (7,286 foreclosure starts); and Miami, Florida (7,090 foreclosure starts).

Illinois, New Jersey and Delaware post highest state foreclosure rates in 2022
States with the highest foreclosure rates in 2022 were Illinois (0.49 percent of housing units with a foreclosure filing); New Jersey (0.45 percent); Delaware (0.40 percent); Ohio (0.38 percent); and South Carolina (0.37 percent).

Rounding out the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates in 2022, were Nevada (0.34 percent); Florida (0.33 percent); Indiana (0.30 percent); Maryland (0.27 percent); and Michigan (0.26 percent).

Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Atlantic City post highest metro foreclosure rates in 2022
Among 223 metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000, those with the highest foreclosure rates in 2022 were Cleveland, Ohio (0.70 percent of housing units with a foreclosure filing); Jacksonville, North Carolina (0.58 percent); Atlantic City, New Jersey (0.58 percent); Columbia, South Carolina (0.55 percent); and Chicago, Illinois (0.53 percent).

Metro areas with a population greater than 1 million, including Cleveland, Ohio and Chicago, Illinois, that had the highest foreclosure rates in 2022, were, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (0.43 percent); Las Vegas, Nevada (0.42 percent); and Jacksonville, Florida (0.42 percent).

Average time to foreclose decreases quarterly and annually
U.S. properties foreclosed in the fourth quarter of 2022 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 852 days, a 4 percent decrease from the previous quarter and 9 percent decrease from a year ago.

2022 Year-End Avg Days to Complete Foreclosure

States with the longest average time to foreclose in Q4 2022 were Hawaii (2,546 days); New Jersey (2,041 days); Louisiana (1,925 days); New York (1,828 days); and Pennsylvania (1,692 days).

Q4 2022 Foreclosure Activity High-Level Takeaways

  • There was a total of 90,715 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in Q4 2022, down 2 percent from the previous quarter but up 61 percent from a year ago.
  • Nationwide in Q4 2022, one in every 1,549 properties had a foreclosure filing.
  • States with the highest foreclosure rates in Q4 2022 were Illinois (one in every 724 housing units with a foreclosure filing); Delaware (one in every 848 housing units); New Jersey (one in every 860 housing units); South Carolina (one in every 950 housing units); and Ohio (one in every 1,035 housing units).

December 2022 Foreclosure Activity High-Level Takeaways

  • Nationwide in December 2022, one in every 4,558 properties had a foreclosure filing.
  • States with the highest foreclosure rates in December 2022 were South Carolina (one in every 2,301 housing units with a foreclosure filing); New Jersey (one in every 2,378 housing units); Illinois (one in every 2,399 housing units); Delaware (one in every 2,535 housing units); and Ohio (one in every 3,027 housing units).
  • 21,023 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in December 2022, up 2 percent from the previous month and up 129 percent from a year ago.
  • Lenders completed the foreclosure process on 3,663 U.S. properties in December 2022, down 3 percent from the previous month but up 21 percent from a year ago.

Report methodology
The ATTOM U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing entered into the ATTOM Data Warehouse during the month and quarter. Some foreclosure filings entered into the database during the quarter may have been recorded in the previous quarter. Data is collected from more than 3,000 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 99 percent of the U.S. population. ATTOM's report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure: Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS); Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank). For the annual, midyear and quarterly reports, if more than one type of foreclosure document is received for a property during the timeframe, only the most recent filing is counted in the report. The annual, midyear, quarterly and monthly reports all check if the same type of document was filed against a property previously. If so, and if that previous filing occurred within the estimated foreclosure timeframe for the state where the property is located, the report does not count the property in the current year, quarter or month.

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 30TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, property data APIs, real estate market trends, property reports and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, that offers immediate access and streamlines data management – ATTOM Cloud.

Media Contact:
Christine Stricker
949.748.8428
christine.stricker@attomdata.com 

Data and Report Licensing:
949.502.8313
datareports@attomdata.com

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Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings

Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution…

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March 12, 2024

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Over the last few years, digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising given the evolution of the market into a “casino” following the pandemic, where retail traders have increased their speculative appetites.

“Such is unsurprising, given that retail investors often fall victim to the psychological behavior of the “fear of missing out.” The chart below shows the “dumb money index” versus the S&P 500. Once again, retail investors are very long equities relative to the institutional players ascribed to being the “smart money.””

“The difference between “smart” and “dumb money” investors shows that, more often than not, the “dumb money” invests near market tops and sells near market bottoms.”

Net Smart Dumb Money vs Market

That enthusiasm has increased sharply since last November as stocks surged in hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. As noted by Sentiment Trader:

“Over the past 18 weeks, the straight-up rally has moved us to an interesting juncture in the Sentiment Cycle. For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has demonstrated a high positive correlation to the ‘Enthusiasm’ part of the cycle and a highly negative correlation to the ‘Panic’ phase.”

Investor Enthusiasm

That frenzy to chase the markets, driven by the psychological bias of the “fear of missing out,” has permeated the entirety of the market. As noted in “This Is Nuts:”

“Since then, the entire market has surged higher following last week’s earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA). The reason I say “this is nuts” is the assumption that all companies were going to grow earnings and revenue at Nvidia’s rate. There is little doubt about Nvidia’s earnings and revenue growth rates. However, to maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share.”

Nvidia Price To Sales

Of course, it is not just a speculative frenzy in the markets for stocks, specifically anything related to “artificial intelligence,” but that exuberance has spilled over into gold and cryptocurrencies.

Birds Of A Feather

There are a couple of ways to measure exuberance in the assets. While sentiment measures examine the broad market, technical indicators can reflect exuberance on individual asset levels. However, before we get to our charts, we need a brief explanation of statistics, specifically, standard deviation.

As I discussed in “Revisiting Bob Farrell’s 10 Investing Rules”:

“Like a rubber band that has been stretched too far – it must be relaxed in order to be stretched again. This is exactly the same for stock prices that are anchored to their moving averages. Trends that get overextended in one direction, or another, always return to their long-term average. Even during a strong uptrend or strong downtrend, prices often move back (revert) to a long-term moving average.”

The idea of “stretching the rubber band” can be measured in several ways, but I will limit our discussion this week to Standard Deviation and measuring deviation with “Bollinger Bands.”

“Standard Deviation” is defined as:

“A measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Standard deviation is calculated as the square root of the variance.”

In plain English, this means that the further away from the average that an event occurs, the more unlikely it becomes. As shown below, out of 1000 occurrences, only three will fall outside the area of 3 standard deviations. 95.4% of the time, events will occur within two standard deviations.

Standard Deviation Chart

A second measure of “exuberance” is “relative strength.”

“In technical analysis, the relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. The RSI is displayed as an oscillator (a line graph that moves between two extremes) and can read from 0 to 100.

Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.” – Investopedia

With those two measures, let’s look at Nvidia (NVDA), the poster child of speculative momentum trading in the markets. Nvidia trades more than 3 standard deviations above its moving average, and its RSI is 81. The last time this occurred was in July of 2023 when Nvidia consolidated and corrected prices through November.

NVDA chart vs Bollinger Bands

Interestingly, gold also trades well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI reading of 75. Given that gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” or “risk off” asset, it is instead getting swept up in the current market exuberance.

Gold vs Bollinger Bands

The same is seen with digital currencies. Given the recent approval of spot, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the panic bid to buy Bitcoin has pushed the price well into 3 standard deviation territory with an RSI of 73.

Bitcoin vs Bollinger Bands

In other words, the stock market frenzy to “buy anything that is going up” has spread from just a handful of stocks related to artificial intelligence to gold and digital currencies.

It’s All Relative

We can see the correlation between stock market exuberance and gold and digital currency, which has risen since 2015 but accelerated following the post-pandemic, stimulus-fueled market frenzy. Since the market, gold and cryptocurrencies, or Bitcoin for our purposes, have disparate prices, we have rebased the performance to 100 in 2015.

Gold was supposed to be an inflation hedge. Yet, in 2022, gold prices fell as the market declined and inflation surged to 9%. However, as inflation has fallen and the stock market surged, so has gold. Notably, since 2015, gold and the market have moved in a more correlated pattern, which has reduced the hedging effect of gold in portfolios. In other words, during the subsequent market decline, gold will likely track stocks lower, failing to provide its “wealth preservation” status for investors.

SP500 vs Gold

The same goes for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is substantially more volatile than gold and tends to ebb and flow with the overall market. As sentiment surges in the S&P 500, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies follow suit as speculative appetites increase. Unfortunately, for individuals once again piling into Bitcoin to chase rising prices, if, or when, the market corrects, the decline in cryptocurrencies will likely substantially outpace the decline in market-based equities. This is particularly the case as Wall Street can now short the spot-Bitcoin ETFs, creating additional selling pressure on Bitcoin.

SP500 vs Bitcoin

Just for added measure, here is Bitcoin versus gold.

Gold vs Bitcoin

Not A Recommendation

There are many narratives surrounding the markets, digital currency, and gold. However, in today’s market, more than in previous years, all assets are getting swept up into the investor-feeding frenzy.

Sure, this time could be different. I am only making an observation and not an investment recommendation.

However, from a portfolio management perspective, it will likely pay to remain attentive to the correlated risk between asset classes. If some event causes a reversal in bullish exuberance, cash and bonds may be the only place to hide.

The post Digital Currency And Gold As Speculative Warnings appeared first on RIA.

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Aging at AACR Annual Meeting 2024

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging…

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BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals. 

Credit: Impact Journals

BUFFALO, NY- March 11, 2024 – Impact Journals publishes scholarly journals in the biomedical sciences with a focus on all areas of cancer and aging research. Aging is one of the most prominent journals published by Impact Journals. 

Impact Journals will be participating as an exhibitor at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Annual Meeting 2024 from April 5-10 at the San Diego Convention Center in San Diego, California. This year, the AACR meeting theme is “Inspiring Science • Fueling Progress • Revolutionizing Care.”

Visit booth #4159 at the AACR Annual Meeting 2024 to connect with members of the Aging team.

About Aging-US:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed and archived by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

  • Aging X
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  • Aging LinkedIn
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Click here to subscribe to Aging publication updates.

For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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March 11, 2024

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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