“If you want to stay ahead, keep one eye on the Fed.” — Patrick Balogna (Maxims of Wall Street, p. 65)
As we enter the fall of 2023, Wall Street faces a conundrum: an aggressive fiscal policy with growing trillion-dollar deficits by the Biden administration in the face of a tight monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
Chart #1 shows how the Biden administration is spending money like water during a time of full employment, which goes counter to what most economists recommend (even Keynesians favor a balanced budget or surplus when the labor market is tight).
The deficit skyrocketed during the Covid panic, and then retreated, only to move steadily higher under Biden. Deficits put pressure on interest rates.
Meanwhile, under chairman Jay Powell, the Federal Reserve has engineered one of the tightest monetary policies in decades following the easy month policies during 2020-21. Interest rates are at their highest level in 20 years. And the money supply is now down to negative territory. Chart #2 shows the direction of the broad-based money supply (M3).
Source: Tim Congdon, Institute for International Monetary Research (IIMR)
The result is a stubborn elixir of high inflation and high interest rates, which Wall Street hates.
The first week of September is down on Wall Street — September is famous for being the most dangerous trading market of the year. Fortunately, we are well protected with a diversified portfolio of high-income stocks and funds, as well as a growing position in commodities and a small position in high-yielding (5.2%) money market funds.
Recession in 2024 is Likely
With rising rates and an inverted yield curve (short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates), what are the chances of a recession and bear market in 2024, the all-important election year?
Last month, I was on the Ben Shapiro Show and warned viewers that we are headed for a recession. The inverted yield curve is just one indicator. Another is the sharp slowdown in business (B2B) spending, shown in chart #3:
I will know more when my gross output (GO) statistic comes out in early October. It measures spending at all stages of production, 62% of which is linked to the business sector. The key leading indicator is business spending, which has been in a slump in 2023.
In fact, the Conference Board reports that the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators have been in decline for over a year now.
Recession in 2024 Could be a Boon to Republicans
There’s a silver lining for the Republicans if a recession strikes America in 2024. A bear market is bad news for an incumbent. Unfortunately, the majority of Republicans prefer Donald Trump, the most vulnerable candidate against Biden. Any other choice could beat Biden by a landslide. I especially like former Governor Nikki Haley (but see my comments below about Vivek Ramaswamy).
‘An Education in Itself.’
At the end of the interview, Ben Shapiro complimented me on my book, “The Making of Modern Economics,” saying, “It’s the best book in economics that I have ever read.” Thank you, Ben!
Yesterday, I received a two-page letter from a successful businessman and long-time subscriber who recently ordered my two books “The Making of Modern Economics” and “The Maxims of Wall Street.”
He writes, “What a bountiful banquet of economic thought and history ‘The Making of Modern Economics’ is! Just finished reading it and enjoyed it immensely. It’s an education in itself.” He also added a postscript: “Enjoying Maxims too!”
To order copies of either book at a discount, go to www.skousenbooks.com. I autograph each copy and mail it at no extra cost if mailed inside the United States.
I’m coming to Miami!
I will be speaking at the Economic Club of Miami on Sept. 14, 2023, 5:30 — 7:30 pm:
Location: Miami Dade College Wolfson Campus, 300 NE 2nd Avenue, Room 2106, Miami, FL, 33132
Price is $25 for the entrance fee. To register, go here.
Join Me at My Favorite Investment Destination: New Orleans!
I always look forward to the New Orleans Investment Conference, to be held this year on Nov. 1-4 at the Riverside Hilton Hotel. It is the granddaddy of investment conferences, especially for gold bugs, and I have attended every year since 1976! New Orleans is my favorite town to visit, with great jazz, a cultural haven and the world’s best restaurants.
Presenters at this year’s conference include keynote speaker Matt Taibbi. He was one of the favorites at FreedomFest in Memphis, speaking about his expose of Twitter censorship and the future of free speech on social media. Other speakers include Peter Schiff, Jim Stack, Brien Lundin, Robert Prechter, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden, Rick Rule, Adrian Day, Jim Rickards and the Real Estate Guys Robert Helms and Russ Gray.
To sign up, go to this link. Or call 1-800-649-8411 and be sure to mention you are a subscriber.
P.S. Come join me and many of my Eagle colleagues on an incredible cruise! If you book before Sept. 29, you’ll receive a spend-as-you-wish $250 ship board credit! In addition, this is all-inclusive — meals, drinks and even the excursions are included in your one-time price! We set sail on Dec. 4 for 16 days, embarking on a memorable journey that combines fascinating history, vibrant culture and picturesque scenery. Enjoy seminars on the days we are cruising from one destination to another, as well as dinners with members of the Eagle team. Just some of the places we’ll visit are Mexico, Belize, Panama, Ecuador and more! Click here now for all the details.
‘Shaking Up Washington: Viva Vivek!’
“When the King is far the people are happy.” — Chinese proverb
I’ve met with several of the Republican candidates over the years, including Larry Elder, Chris Christy and Governor DeSantis.
But none have surprised me more than biotech business guru Vivek Ramaswamy. He is a breath of fresh air. He is shaking things up and rising in the polls. His attacks on big government and the woke culture are so strong, that I’m sure he will eventually be destroyed by the establishment media. They are already attacking him for his harsh statements on some Democrats and questionable business dealings revealed in his tax returns (the first candidate to disclose 20 years of tax returns!).
Unlike Governor DeSantis, Vivek recognized the importance of speaking at “the world’s largest gathering of free minds” in Memphis this summer. He decided to come to our private dinner party at the Peabody Hotel and I’m glad he did. He was gracious and did not put on airs. He has to be the most articulate candidate I’ve ever met — a smooth talker who never says “ya know” or “and dah…” He seems to know everything about anything, from legislative law to foreign policy, even though he’s never held office before. He’s very approachable and likable, although his views seem off the wall at times.
I asked him about wanting to increase dramatically the number of executive orders, which I consider a form of dictatorship, and he said, “No, most of the executive orders I want are just to undo the executive orders of the past.” Good answer.
I like his ten truths on his platform:
God is real.
There are two genders.
Human flourishing requires fossil fuels.
Reverse racism is racism.
An open border is no border.
Parents determine the education of their children.
The nuclear family is the greatest form of governance known to mankind.
Capitalism lifts people up from poverty.
There are three branches of the U.S. government, not four.
The U.S. Constitution is the strongest guarantor of freedoms in history.
He wants to reduce the administrative state by shutting down the FBI, Dept. of Education and the Nuclear Commission. He wants to lay off 75% of the federal government’s bureaucracy and waste. He has some creative ideas for ending the Russia-Ukraine War and wants to send the military to the southern border to shut off the illegals coming in.
I just wished people like Vivek Ramaswamy would run for governor first before running for president, because he is clearly naive if he thinks he can fire half the federal bureaucrats and abolish the FBI, etc. Several Republicans like Reagan have campaigned on abolishing the Department of Education, but instead have increased its budget. So his agenda is easier said than done. But I do like his enthusiasm for real reform.
Former Project Veritas & O’Keefe Media Group operative and Pfizer formulation analyst scientist Justin Leslie revealed previously unpublished recordings showing Pfizer’s top vaccine researchers discussing major concerns surrounding COVID-19 vaccines. Leslie delivered these recordings to Veritas in late 2021, but they were never published:
Principal scientist at Pfizer, Kanwall Gill in 2021:
“We had no idea how it’s going to look like. MRNA vaccines have been there for 50 years, but nothing went to clinical trial because MRNA have been known to have side effects.”
Featured in Leslie’s footage is Kanwal Gill, a principal scientist at Pfizer. Gill was weary of MRNA technology given its long research history yet lack of approved commercial products. She called the vaccines “sneaky,” suggesting latent side effects could emerge in time.
Gill goes on to illustrate how the vaccine formulation process was dramatically rushed under the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization and adds that profit incentives likely played a role:
Pfizer's principal scientist in 2021:
“It takes 10 year for a vaccine to come out. It takes years of observations... we are doing everything at the same time."
"It’s going to affect my heart, and I’m going to die. And nobody’s talking about that."
Leslie recorded another colleague, Pfizer’s pharmaceutical formulation scientist Ramin Darvari, who raised the since-validated concern that repeat booster intake could damage the cardiovascular system:
Pfizer's pharmaceutical formulation scientist, Ramin Darvari, in 2021:
“They’re engineering it specifically for me to take the next one, so increasing my consumption."
“It’s going to affect my heart, and I’m going to die. And nobody’s talking about that.”
None of these claims will be shocking to hear in 2024, but it is telling that high-level Pfizer researchers were discussing these topics in private while the company assured the public of “no serious safety concerns” upon the jab’s release:
Vaccine for Children is a Different Formulation
Leslie sent me a little-known FDA-Pfizer conference — a 7-hour Zoom meeting published in tandem with the approval of the vaccine for 5 – 11 year-olds — during which Pfizer’s vice presidents of vaccine research and development, Nicholas Warne and William Gruber, discussed a last-minute change to the vaccine’s “buffer” — from “PBS” to “Tris” — to improve its shelf life. For about 30 seconds of these 7 hours, Gruber acknowledged that the new formula was NOT the one used in clinical trials (emphasis mine):
“The studies were done using the same volume… but contained the PBS buffer. We obviously had extensive consultations with the FDA and it was determined that the clinical studies were not required because, again, the LNP and the MRNA are the same and the behavior — in terms of reactogenicity and efficacy — are expected to be the same.”
According to Leslie, the tweaked “buffer” dramatically changed the temperature needed for storage: “Before they changed this last step of the formulation, the formula was to be kept at -80 degrees Celsius. After they changed the last step, we kept them at 2 to 8 degrees celsius,” Leslie told me.
The claims are backed up in the referenced video presentation:
I’m no vaccinologist but an 80-degree temperature delta — and a 5x shelf-life in a warmer climate — seems like a significant change that might warrant clinical trials before commercial release.
Despite this information technically being public, there has been virtually no media scrutiny or even coverage — and in fact, most were told the vaccine for children was the same formula but just a smaller dose — which is perhaps due to a combination of the information being buried within a 7-hour jargon-filled presentation and our media being totally dysfunctional.
Bohemian Grove?
Leslie’s 2-hour long documentary on his experience at both Pfizer and O’Keefe’s companies concludes on an interesting note: James O’Keefe attended an outing at the Bohemian Grove.
Leslie offers this photo of James’ Bohemian Grove “GATE” slip as evidence, left on his work desk atop a copy of his book, “American Muckraker”:
My thoughts on the Bohemian Grove: my good friend’s dad was its general manager for several decades. From what I have gathered through that connection, the Bohemian Grove is not some version of the Illuminati, at least not in the institutional sense.
Do powerful elites hangout there? Absolutely. Do they discuss their plans for the world while hanging out there? I’m sure it has happened. Do they have a weird ritual with a giant owl? Yep, Alex Jones showed that to the world.
My perspective is based on conversations with my friend and my belief that his father is not lying to him. I could be wrong and am open to evidence — like if boxer Ryan Garcia decides to produce evidence regarding his rape claims — and I do find it a bit strange the club would invite O’Keefe who is notorious for covertly filming, but Occam’s razor would lead me to believe the club is — as it was under my friend’s dad — run by boomer conservatives the extent of whose politics include disliking wokeness, immigration, and Biden (common subjects of O’Keefe’s work).
Therefore, I don’t find O’Keefe’s visit to the club indicative that he is some sort of Operation Mockingbird asset as Leslie tries to depict (however Mockingbird is a 100% legitimate conspiracy). I have also met James several times and even came close to joining OMG. While I disagreed with James on the significance of many of his stories — finding some to be overhyped and showy — I never doubted his conviction in them.
As for why Leslie’s story was squashed… all my sources told me it was to avoid jail time for Veritas executives.
Feel free to watch Leslie’s full documentary here and decide for yourself.
Fun fact — Justin Leslie was also the operative behind this mega-viral Project Veritas story where Pfizer’s director of R&D claimed the company was privately mutating COVID-19 behind closed doors:
BREAKING: @Pfizer Exploring "Mutating" COVID-19 Virus For New Vaccines
"Don't tell anyone this...There is a risk...have to be very controlled to make sure this virus you mutate doesn't create something...the way that the virus started in Wuhan, to be honest."#DirectedEvolutionpic.twitter.com/xaRvlD5qTo
“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”
Credit: 2024 Bozack et al.
“[…] our findings support the hypothesis that the intrauterine environment, particularly essential and non-essential metals, affect epigenetic aging biomarkers across the life course.”
BUFFALO, NY- March 12, 2024 – A new research paper was published inAging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 4, entitled, “Associations of prenatal one-carbon metabolism nutrients and metals with epigenetic aging biomarkers at birth and in childhood in a US cohort.”
Epigenetic gestational age acceleration (EGAA) at birth and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in childhood may be biomarkers of the intrauterine environment. In this new study, researchers Anne K. Bozack, Sheryl L. Rifas-Shiman, Andrea A. Baccarelli, Robert O. Wright, Diane R. Gold, Emily Oken, Marie-France Hivert, and Andres Cardenas from Stanford University School of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Columbia University, and Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai investigated the extent to which first-trimester folate, B12, 5 essential and 7 non-essential metals in maternal circulation are associated with EGAA and EAA in early life.
“[…] we hypothesized that OCM [one-carbon metabolism] nutrients and essential metals would be positively associated with EGAA and non-essential metals would be negatively associated with EGAA. We also investigated nonlinear associations and associations with mixtures of micronutrients and metals.”
Bohlin EGAA and Horvath pan-tissue and skin and blood EAA were calculated using DNA methylation measured in cord blood (N=351) and mid-childhood blood (N=326; median age = 7.7 years) in the Project Viva pre-birth cohort. A one standard deviation increase in individual essential metals (copper, manganese, and zinc) was associated with 0.94-1.2 weeks lower Horvath EAA at birth, and patterns of exposures identified by exploratory factor analysis suggested that a common source of essential metals was associated with Horvath EAA. The researchers also observed evidence of nonlinear associations of zinc with Bohlin EGAA, magnesium and lead with Horvath EAA, and cesium with skin and blood EAA at birth. Overall, associations at birth did not persist in mid-childhood; however, arsenic was associated with greater EAA at birth and in childhood.
“Prenatal metals, including essential metals and arsenic, are associated with epigenetic aging in early life, which might be associated with future health.”
Read the full paper: DOI:https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205602
Corresponding Author: Andres Cardenas
Corresponding Email:andres.cardenas@stanford.edu
Keywords: epigenetic age acceleration, metals, folate, B12, prenatal exposures
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About Aging:
Launched in 2009, Aging publishes papers of general interest and biological significance in all fields of aging research and age-related diseases, including cancer—and now, with a special focus on COVID-19 vulnerability as an age-dependent syndrome. Topics in Aging go beyond traditional gerontology, including, but not limited to, cellular and molecular biology, human age-related diseases, pathology in model organisms, signal transduction pathways (e.g., p53, sirtuins, and PI-3K/AKT/mTOR, among others), and approaches to modulating these signaling pathways.
Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com and connect with us:
National insurance, income tax, VAT, capital gains tax, inheritance tax… it’s easy to get confused about the many different ways we contribute to the cost of running the country. The budget announcement is the key time each year when the government shares its financial plans with us all, and announces changes that may make a tangible difference to what you pay.
But you’ll likely be hearing a lot more about taxes in the coming months – promises to cut or raise them are an easy win (or lose) for politicians in an election year. We may even get at least one “mini-budget”.
If you’ve recently entered the workforce or the housing market, you may still be wrapping your mind around all of these terms. Here is what you need to know about the different types of taxes and how they affect you.
The UK broadly uses three ways to collect tax:
1. When you earn money
If you are an employee or own a business, taxes are deducted from your salary or profits you make. For most people, this happens in two ways: income tax, and national insurance contributions (or NICs).
If you are self-employed, you will have to pay your taxes via an annual tax return assessment. You might also have to pay taxes this way for interest you earn on savings, dividends (distribution of profits from a company or shares you own) received and most other forms of income not taxed before you get it.
VAT and excise duties are taxes on most goods and services you buy, with some exceptions like books and children’s clothing. About 20% of the total tax collected is VAT.
3. Taxes on wealth and assets
These are mainly taxes on the money you earn if you sell assets (like property or stocks) for more than you bought them for, or when you pass on assets in an inheritance. In the latter case in the UK, the recipient doesn’t pay this, it is the estate paying it out that must cover this if due. These taxes contribute only about 3% to the total tax collected.
You also likely have to pay council tax, which is set by the council you live in based on the value of your house or flat. It is paid by the user of the property, no matter if you own or rent. If you are a full-time student or on some apprenticeship schemes, you may get a deduction or not have to pay council tax at all.
This article is part of Quarter Life, a series about issues affecting those of us in our 20s and 30s. From the challenges of beginning a career and taking care of our mental health, to the excitement of starting a family, adopting a pet or just making friends as an adult. The articles in this series explore the questions and bring answers as we navigate this turbulent period of life.
Put together, these totalled almost £790 billion in 2022-23, which the government spends on public services such as the NHS, schools and social care. The government collects taxes from all sources and sets its spending plans accordingly, borrowing to make up any difference between the two.
Income tax
The amount of income tax you pay is determined by where your income sits in a series of “bands” set by the government. Almost everyone is entitled to a “personal allowance”, currently £12,570, which you can earn without needing to pay any income tax.
You then pay 20% in tax on each pound of income you earn (across all sources) from £12,570-£50,270. You pay 40% on each extra pound up to £125,140 and 45% over this. If you earn more than £100,000, the personal allowance (amount of untaxed income) starts to decrease.
If you are self-employed, the same rates apply to you. You just don’t have an employer to take this off your salary each month. Instead, you have to make sure you have enough money at the end of the year to pay this directly to the government.
The government can increase the threshold limits to adjust for inflation. This tries to ensure any wage rise you get in response to higher prices doesn’t lead to you having to pay a higher tax rate. However, the government announced in 2021 that they would freeze these thresholds until 2026 (extended now to 2028), arguing that it would help repay the costs of the pandemic.
Given wages are now rising for many to help with the cost of living crisis, this means many people will pay more income tax this coming year than they did before. This is sometimes referred to as “fiscal drag” – where lower earners are “dragged” into paying higher tax rates, or being taxed on more of their income.
National insurance
National insurance contributions (NICs) are a second “tax” you pay on your income – or to be precise, on your earned income (your salary). You don’t pay this on some forms of income, including savings or dividends, and you also don’t pay it once you reach state retirement age (currently 66).
While Jeremy Hunt, the current chancellor of the exchequer, didn’t adjust income tax meaningfully in this year’s budget, he did announce a cut to NICs. This was a surprise to many, as we had already seen rates fall from 12% to 10% on incomes higher than £242/week in January. It will now fall again to 8% from April.
While this is charged separately to income tax, in reality it all just goes into one pot with other taxes. Some, including the chancellor, say it is time to merge these two deductions and make this simpler for everyone. In his budget speech this year, Hunt said he’d like to see this tax go entirely. He thinks this isn’t fair on those who have to pay it, as it is only charged on some forms of income and on some workers.
I wouldn’t hold my breath for this to happen however, and even if it did, there are huge sums linked to NICs (nearly £180bn last year) so it would almost certainly have to be collected from elsewhere (such as via an increase in income taxes, or a lot more borrowing) to make sure the government could still balance its books.
There are likely to be further tweaks to the UK’s tax system soon, perhaps by the current government before the election – and almost certainly if there is a change of government.
Wealth taxes may be in line for a change. In the budget, the chancellor reduced capital gains taxes on sales of assets such as second properties (from 28% to 24%). These types of taxes provide only a limited amount of money to the government, as quite high thresholds apply for inheritance tax (up to £1 million if you are passing on a family home).
There are calls from many quarters though to look again at these types of taxes. Wealth inequality (the differences between total wealth held by the richest compared to the poorest) in the UK is very high (much higher than income inequality) and rising.
But how to do this effectively is a matter of much debate. A recent study suggested a one-off tax on total wealth held over a certain threshold might work. But wealth taxes are challenging to make work in practice, and both main political parties have already said this isn’t an option they are considering currently.
Andy Lymer and his colleagues at the Centre for Personal Financial Wellbeing at Aston University currently or have recently received funding for their research work from a variety of funding bodies including the UK's Money and Pension Service, the Aviva Foundation, Fair4All Finance, NEST Insight, the Gambling Commission, Vivid Housing and the ESRC, amongst others.
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