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Should you be investing in platinum as analysts predict record supply deficit later this year?

Recent reports have highlighted issues in the global supply of platinum, a metal in increasing demand, that could see a record deficit…
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Recent reports have highlighted issues in the global supply of platinum, a metal in increasing demand, that could see a record deficit in supply this year. Demand is forecast to leap 28% this year while supply bottlenecks reduce output. As a result, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), an industry body, has revised its predicted market deficit up by 77% compared to three months ago.

WPIC director of research Edward Sterck is quoted by the Financial Times as saying the expected 983,000 ounces market deficit this year would be the most significant since the 1970s. If demand meets expectations, around 12% will not be able to be met by either new supply produced by mines nor recycling. The last time that happened was in 1999.

The FT notes that platinum gains of almost 20% since the metal’s most recent lows in February, and the expected supply crunch, have not gone unnoticed by professional fund managers. Many have turned to ETFs that track the platinum price and are backed by the physical metal for exposure to the commodity. Something that could also appeal to more adventurous private investors looking for short to medium term opportunities to turn a profit.

Why is platinum in such high demand?

It’s relative scarcity, softness making it conveniently malleable, attractive white colour and tarnish resistance means platinum is perhaps best known as a precious metal used in jewellery.

However, the majority of demand for platinum is actually industrial and it is that demand that is growing quickly. The rare metal’s high melting point, the fact it’s highly unreactive, and is a good catalyst are the qualities that are most important to its industrial applications.

Some of the most common industrial uses of platinum include:

Catalytic Converters in automobiles: more platinum is used in catalytic converters for automobiles than anywhere else. These devices reduce harmful emissions from vehicles by converting pollutants into less harmful substances.

Fuel Cells: Platinum is used as a catalyst in fuel cells, which convert chemical energy into electricity.

Chemical Industry: Platinum is used as a catalyst in the chemical industry, particularly in the production of nitric acid, silicones, and benzene.

Electronics: Platinum is used in a variety of electronics, including computer hard disks and thermocouples. It’s also used in the manufacture of LCD televisions.

Dental and Medical Tools: Platinum’s biocompatibility and resistance to corrosion make it useful in a variety of medical and dental applications. It’s used in pacemakers, stents, and in dental fillings and crowns.

Glass Manufacturing: Platinum equipment is used in the production of glass, due to its ability to withstand high temperatures and its non-reactive nature.

Petroleum Refining: Platinum catalysts are used in the refining of petroleum.

Electroplating: Platinum is often used for electroplating to provide a corrosion-resistant and decorative coating.

Spark Plugs: Platinum is used in spark plugs for certain types of engines because of its high melting point and conductivity.

What is causing the supply deficit?

The WPIC’s analysis of the platinum market highlights the rising number of catalytic converters being manufactured and sold due to tightening emissions regulations for newly manufactured non-electric automobiles.

Global demand for electronics which often use platinum is also steadily rising. The other major factor on the demand side is China’s post-pandemic return to industrial expansion.

However, the biggest factor in the predicted deficit of platinum supplies this year is supply-side issues.

Major countries in global mine production of platinum in 2022(in metric tons)

Source: Statista

South Africa is by far the biggest supplier of platinum, producing almost 3 times as much of the metal as mines in the rest of the world combined and seven times as much as Russia, the next largest supplier. South African platinum production is expected to plunge this year as a result of major power outages in the country resulting from the crisis at utility Eskom Holdings.

Buying platinum from Russia, the next largest producer, is also highly problematic for much of the world due to sanctions imposed in response to its invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.

Just as significant as the expected hit to new production is a drop in the volumes of recycled platinum reaching the market as, says Bloomberg, scrap yards and dealers withhold the metal from the market. That suggests they anticipate significant further platinum price rises this year.

How long is the window of opportunity likely to be and how risky is commodities investing?

Commodities investments are notoriously fickle and subject to volatility as supply and demand fluctuate. If demand increases, there is almost always a significant lag in increasing the supply of mined metals if production cannot be significantly boosted from existing mines. It takes time to develop new mines or extend capacity in existing properties, making supply relatively inelastic and vulnerable to any major shift in demand patterns.

But that dynamic works both ways and platinum prices have only recently returned to a bull market after a slump in demand resulting from a drop in automobile production led to oversupply. Less cars coming off production lines due to a shortage of chips meant less catalytic converters being manufactured.

Some analysts also point out the impact a struggling global economy could have on demand for the electronics and glass the metal is also used for. However, the WPIC is convinced any short-term drop in demand for consumer electronics will be more than compensated for by a surge in demand from China as it expands its glass and chemicals production capacity.

In the medium to longer term, the phasing out of internal combustion engines represents a threat to platinum demand, even as tighter emissions rules in the meanwhile boosts it. However, with platinum prices still about 70% lower than they were a decade ago, there could well be plenty of potential upside over the next few years while supply is recalibrated.

However, investors should view any direct investment in commodity prices are relatively risky and potentially volatile.

Investing in platinum – how can private individuals gain investment exposure?

There are two main ways to gain investment exposure to platinum:

  • Equity investments in platinum miners
  • Direct exposure to the physical metal via ETFs

Until recently, fund managers have demonstrated a preference for investing in the equity of platinum miners for exposure to the metal. Anglo American Platinum, a subsidiary of London-listed Anglo American, is the world’s largest producer of the metal. Its South African mines account for between 30% and 40% of global supply.

Investors can buy shares in Anglo American Platinum directly, it is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, or gain diluted exposure via the parent company. The second largest supplier is another South African and Johannesburg-listed miner Impala Platinum.

Platinum miners are, to a greater or lesser extent based on how much the metal contributes to overall output, a proxy for the platinum price. However, share prices are also impacted by many other factors. A perfect example would be the negative impact electricity outages hitting production are currently having on South African miners.

For direct exposure to the price trends of the metal itself, investors can consider ETFs which track the price and are backed by physical holdings. UK-based investors have easy access to London-listed platinum funds including:

  • abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF
  • iShares Physical Platinum ETC

Should you invest in platinum?

A direct investment in a commodity like platinum via an ETF, or even in the form of equity in a platinum-focused miner, is not for all investors. As already mentioned, commodity investments are historically volatile and are best suited to more sophisticated investors as well as those willing and able to track the market for catalysts that could change demand and supply dynamics, impacting prices.

However, more experienced investors may well find the current prospect of a major platinum supply deficit an enticing opportunity.

The post Should you be investing in platinum as analysts predict record supply deficit later this year? first appeared on Trading and Investment News.

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CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China – And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China – And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

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CCP-Linked Virologist Fired After Transferring Ebola From Winnipeg To Wuhan Resurfaces In China - And Is Collaborating With Military Scientists

A virologist who had a "clandestine relationship" with Chinese agents and was subsequently fired by the Trudeau government has popped back up in China - where she's conducting research with Chinese military scientists and other virology researchers, including at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where she's allegedly studying antibodies for coronavirus, as well as the deadly Ebola and Niaph viruses, the Globe and Mail reports.

Xiangguo Qiu and her husband Keding Cheng were fired from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, Canada and stripped of their security clearances in July of 2019.

Declassified documents tabled in the House of Commons on Feb. 28 show the couple had provided confidential scientific information to China and posed a credible security threat to the country, according to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

The Globe found that Dr. Qiu’s name appears on four Chinese patent filings since 2020, two with the Wuhan Institute of Virology whose work on bat coronaviruses has placed it at the centre of concerns that it played a role in the spread of COVID-19 – and two with the University of Science and Technology of China, or USTC. The patents relate to antibodies against Nipah virus and work related to nanobodies, including against coronaviruses. -Globe and Mail

Canadian authorities began questioning the pair's loyalty, as well as the potential for coercion or exploitation by a foreign entity, according to more than 600 pages of documents reported by The Counter Signal.

Highlights (via CTVNews.ca):

  • Qiu and Cheng were escorted out of Winnipeg's National Microbiology Laboratory in July 2019 and subsequently fired in January 2021.
  • The pair transferred deadly Ebola and Henipah viruses to China's Wuhan Institute of Virology in March 2019.
  • The Canadian Security Intelligence Service assessed that Qiu repeatedly lied about the extent of her work with institutions of the Chinese government and refused to admit involvement in various Chinese programs, even when evidence was presented to her.
  • [D]espite being given every opportunity in her interviews to describe her association with Chinese entities, "Ms. Qiu continued to make blanket denials, feign ignorance or tell outright lies."
  • A November 2020 Public Health Agency of Canada report on Qiu says investigators "weighed the adverse information and are in agreement with the CSIS assessment."
  • A Public Health Agency report on Cheng's activities says he allowed restricted visitors to work in laboratories unescorted and on at least two occasions did not prevent the unauthorized removal of laboratory materials.
  • Cheng was not forthcoming about his activities and collaborations with people from government agencies "of another country, namely members of the People's Republic of China."

Following their firings, Qiu returned to China despite it being under a pandemic travel lockdown until January, 2023.

"It’s very likely that she received quite preferential treatment in China on the basis that she’s proven herself. She’s done a very good job for the government of China," said Brendan Walker-Munro, senior research fellow at Australia’s University of Queensland Law School. "She’s promoted their interests abroad. She’s returned information that is credibly useful to China and to its ongoing research."

More via the Globe and Mail;

Documents reviewed by The Globe show that Dr. Qiu is most closely aligned with the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) in Hefei. In March, 2023, a document posted by a Chinese pharmaceutical company listed Dr. Qiu as second amongst “major completion personnel” on a project awarded by the Chinese Preventive Medicine Association for study related to an anti-Ebola virus therapeutic antibody. Most of the other completion personnel were associated with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.

USTC was founded by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and initially established to build up Chinese scientific expertise useful to the military, which at the time was pursuing technology to build satellites, intercontinental ballistic missiles and atomic bombs. The university has continued to maintain close military ties.

The document says Dr. Qiu works for USTC. Jin Tengchuan, the principal investigator at the Laboratory of Structural Immunology at USTC, lists her as a co-inventor on a patent. Mr. Jin did not respond to requests for comment.

A person who answered the phone at USTC told The Globe, “I don’t have any information about this teacher.”

In 2012, USTC signed a strategic co-operation agreement with the Army Engineering University of the People’s Liberation Army, designed to strengthen research on cutting-edge technology useful for communications, weaponry and other national-defence priorities.

Dr. Qiu is also listed as a 2019 doctoral supervisor for students studying virology at Hebei Medical University.

Well, that makes me wonder what circumstances she was under when she emigrated to Canada. Why did she come?” asked Earl Brown, a professor emeritus of biochemistry, microbiology and immunology at the University of Ottawa’s faculty of medicine who has worked extensively in China in the past. “People leave for more freedom from China, or to make more money. But China keeps tabs on most people so I am not sure if she came over to infiltrate or whether she came and the infiltration happened later through contact with China.”

It may be impossible to answer that question. Three former colleagues at the National Microbiolgy Lab have indicated that Dr. Qiu and her husband were diligent and pleasant to deal with, but largely kept to themselves outside of work. They say Dr. Qiu was a brilliant scientist with a strong work ethic, although her English was weak. The Globe is not identifying the three who did not want to be named.

Dr. Qiu is a medical doctor from Tianjin, China, who came to Canada for graduate studies in 1996. She started at the University of Manitoba, but began working at the national lab as a research scientist in 2006, working her way up to become head of the vaccine development and antiviral therapies section in the National Microbiology Laboratory’s special pathogens program.

She was also part of the team that helped develop ZMapp, a treatment for the deadly Ebola virus, which killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa between 2014 and 2016.

“My sense is this was part of a larger strategy by China to get access to our innovation system,” said Filippa Lentzos, an associate professor of science and international security at King’s College London. “It was a way for them to to find out what was going on in Canada’s premier lab.”

Initially trained as a medical doctor, Dr. Qiu graduated in 1985 from Hebei University in the coastal city of Tianjin, which lies southeast of Beijing. Dr. Qiu went on to obtain her master of science degree in immunology at Tianjin Medical University in 1990.

Her career at Canada’s top infectious disease lab in Winnipeg began in 2003, only four years after Ottawa opened this biosafety level 4 facility at the Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health.

Over time, she built up a reputation for academic collaboration, particularly with China. It was welcomed by management who felt her work was helping build a name internationally for the National Microbiology Lab.

By the time Canadian officials intervened in 2018 and began investigating, documents show, Dr. Qiu was running 44 separate projects at the Winnipeg lab, an uncommonly large workload.

Her work with former colleague and microbiologist Gary Kobinger vaulted Dr. Qiu into the international spotlight. The pair developed a treatment for Ebola, one that in its first human application led to the full recovery of 27 patients with the infection during a 2014 outbreak in Liberia.

Mr. Kobinger’s career continued to soar and he is now director of the Galveston National Laboratory, a renowned biosafety level 4 facility in Texas. In 2022, he told The Globe that it was “heartbreaking” to see what had happened to his colleague. He declined to speak for this article.

“She had lost a lot of weight with all the stress. She was so convinced that this was all a misunderstanding … and she would go back to her job,” he said in 2022. “ Her career has been destroyed with all this. She was one of the top female Canadian scientists of virology and Canada has lost that.”

Over a period of 13 months, though, the Chinese-Canadian microbiologist and her biologist husband’s lives were turned upside down.

She went from being feted at Ottawa’s Rideau Hall with a Governor-General’s Award in May, 2018, to being locked out of the Winnipeg lab in July, 2019 – the high-security facility where she had made her name as a scientist in Canada. By January, 2021, she and Mr. Cheng were fired.

Last month, after being pressed into explaining what happened, the Canadian government finally disclosed the reasons for this extraordinary dismissal: CSIS found the pair had lied about and hid their co-operation with China from Ottawa.

A big question remains following their departure: Why would Dr. Qiu risk her career, including the stature associated with developing an Ebola treatment, for China?

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/21/2024 - 18:40

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Spread & Containment

You can now enter this country without a passport

Singapore has been on a larger push to speed up the flow of tourists with digital immigration clearance.

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In the fall of 2023, the city-state of Singapore announced that it was working on end-to-end biometrics that would allow travelers passing through its Changi Airport to check into flights, drop off bags and even leave and exit the country without a passport.

The latter is the most technologically advanced step of them all because not all countries issue passports with the same biometrics while immigration laws leave fewer room for mistakes about who enters the country.

Related: A country just went visa-free for visitors with any passport

That said, Singapore is one step closer to instituting passport-free travel by testing it at its land border with Malaysia. The two countries have two border checkpoints, Woodlands and Tuas, and as of March 20 those entering in Singapore by car are able to show a QR code that they generate through the government’s MyICA app instead of the passport.

A photograph captures Singapore's Tuas land border with Malaysia.

Here is who is now able to enter Singapore passport-free

The latter will be available to citizens of Singapore, permanent residents and tourists who have already entered the country once with their current passport. The government app pulls data from one's passport and shows the border officer the conditions of one's entry clearance already recorded in the system.

More Travel:

While not truly passport-free since tourists still need to link a valid passport to an online system, the move is the first step in Singapore's larger push to get rid of physical passports.

"The QR code initiative allows travellers to enjoy a faster and more convenient experience, with estimated time savings of around 20 seconds for cars with four travellers, to approximately one minute for cars with 10 travellers," Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority wrote in a press release announcing the new feature. "Overall waiting time can be reduced by more than 30% if most car travellers use QR code for clearance."

More countries are looking at passport-free travel but it will take years to implement

The land crossings between Singapore and Malaysia can get very busy — government numbers show that a new post-pandemic record of 495,000 people crossed Woodlands and Tuas on the weekend of March 8 (the day before Singapore's holiday weekend.)

Even once Singapore implements fully digital clearance at all of its crossings, the change will in no way affect immigration rules since it's only a way of transferring the status afforded by one's nationality into a digital system (those who need a visa to enter Singapore will still need to apply for one at a consulate before the trip.) More countries are in the process of moving toward similar systems but due to the varying availability of necessary technology and the types of passports issued by different countries, the prospect of agent-free crossings is still many years away.

In the U.S., Chicago's O'Hare International Airport was chosen to take part in a pilot program in which low-risk travelers with TSA PreCheck can check into their flight and pass security on domestic flights without showing ID. The UK has also been testing similar digital crossings for British and EU citizens but no similar push for international travelers is currently being planned in the U.S.

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International

This country became first in the world to let in tourists passport-free

Singapore has been on a larger push to speed up the flow of tourists with digital immigration clearance.

Published

on

In the fall of 2023, the city-state of Singapore announced that it was working on end-to-end biometrics that would allow travelers passing through its Changi Airport to check into flights, drop off bags and even leave and exit the country without a passport.

The latter is the most technologically advanced step of them all because not all countries issue passports with the same biometrics while immigration laws leave fewer room for mistakes about who enters the country.

Related: A country just went visa-free for visitors with any passport

That said, Singapore is one step closer to instituting passport-free travel by testing it at its land border with Malaysia. The two countries have two border checkpoints, Woodlands and Tuas, and as of March 20 those entering in Singapore by car are able to show a QR code that they generate through the government’s MyICA app instead of the passport.

A photograph captures Singapore's Tuas land border with Malaysia.

Here is who is now able to enter Singapore passport-free

The latter will be available to citizens of Singapore, permanent residents and tourists who have already entered the country once with their current passport. The government app pulls data from one's passport and shows the border officer the conditions of one's entry clearance already recorded in the system.

More Travel:

While not truly passport-free since tourists still need to link a valid passport to an online system, the move is the first step in Singapore's larger push to get rid of physical passports.

"The QR code initiative allows travellers to enjoy a faster and more convenient experience, with estimated time savings of around 20 seconds for cars with four travellers, to approximately one minute for cars with 10 travellers," Singapore's Immigration and Checkpoints Authority wrote in a press release announcing the new feature. "Overall waiting time can be reduced by more than 30% if most car travellers use QR code for clearance."

More countries are looking at passport-free travel but it will take years to implement

The land crossings between Singapore and Malaysia can get very busy — government numbers show that a new post-pandemic record of 495,000 people crossed Woodlands and Tuas on the weekend of March 8 (the day before Singapore's holiday weekend.)

Even once Singapore implements fully digital clearance at all of its crossings, the change will in no way affect immigration rules since it's only a way of transferring the status afforded by one's nationality into a digital system (those who need a visa to enter Singapore will still need to apply for one at a consulate before the trip.) More countries are in the process of moving toward similar systems but due to the varying availability of necessary technology and the types of passports issued by different countries, the prospect of agent-free crossings is still many years away.

In the U.S., Chicago's O'Hare International Airport was chosen to take part in a pilot program in which low-risk travelers with TSA PreCheck can check into their flight and pass security on domestic flights without showing ID. The UK has also been testing similar digital crossings for British and EU citizens but no similar push for international travelers is currently being planned in the U.S.

Read More

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